Bistable attractors in a model of convection-driven spherical dynamos

The range of existence and the properties of two essentially different chaotic attractors found in a model of nonlinear convection-driven dynamos in rotating spherical shells are investigated. A hysteretic transition between these attractors is established as a function of the rotation parameter t. The width of the basins of attraction is also estimated. © 2012 The Royal Swedish Academy of Sciences.

Pattern competition in volumetricaly heated fluids

Finite element simulations have been performed along side Galerkin-type calculations that examined the development of volumetrically heated flow patterns in a horizontal layer controlled by the Prandtl number, Pr, and the Grashof number, Gr. The fluid was bounded by an isothermal plane above an adiabatic plane. In the simulations performed here, a number of convective polygonal planforms occurred, as Gr increased above the critical Grashof number, Grc at Pr = 7, while roll structures were observed for Pr < 1 at 2Grc.

Health care professionals' views of paediatric outpatient non-attendance:implications for general practice

Background. Non-attendance at paediatric hospital outpatient appointments poses potential risks to children's health and welfare. Prevention and management of missed appointments depends on the perceptions of clinicians and decision makers from both primary and secondary care, including general practitioners (GPs) who are integral to non-attendance follow-up. Objectives. To examine the views of clinical, managerial and executive health care staff regarding occurrence and management of non-attendance at general paediatric outpatient clinics. Methods. A qualitative study using individual semi-structured interviews was carried out at three English Primary Care Trusts and a nearby children's hospital. Interviews were conducted with 37 staff, including GPs, hospital doctors, other health care professionals, managers, executives and commissioners. Participants were recruited through purposive and 'snowball' sampling methods. Data were analysed following a thematic framework approach. Results. GPs focused on situational difficulties for families, while hospital-based staff emphasized the influence of parents' beliefs on attendance. Managers, executives and commissioners presented a broad overview of both factors, but with less detailed views. All groups discussed sociodemographic factors, with non-attendance thought to be more likely in 'chaotic families'. Hospital interviewees emphasized child protection issues and the need for thorough follow-up of missed appointments. However, GPs were reluctant to interfere with parental responsibilities. Conclusion. Parental motivation and practical and social barriers should be considered. Responsibilities regarding missed appointments are not clear across health care sectors, but GPs are uniquely placed to address non-attendance issues and are central to child safeguarding. Primary care policies and strategies could be introduced to reduce non-attendance and ensure children receive the care they require. © The Author 2013.

Parabolic optical pulses under the action of the third-order dispersion

Recent developments in nonlinear optics reveal an interesting class of pulses with a parabolic intensity profile in the energy-containing core and a linear frequency chirp that can propagate in a fiber with normal group-velocity dispersion. Parabolic pulses propagate in a stable selfsimilar manner, holding certain relations (scaling) between pulse power, width, and chirp parameter. In the additional presence of linear amplification, they enjoy the remarkable property of representing a common asymptotic state (or attractor) for arbitrary initial conditions. Analytically, self-similar (SS) parabolic pulses can be found as asymptotic, approximate solutions of the nonlinear Schr¨odinger equation (NLSE) with gain in the semi-classical (largeamplitude/small-dispersion) limit. By analogy with the well-known stable dynamics of solitary waves - solitons, these SS parabolic pulses have come to be known as similaritons. In practical fiber systems, inherent third-order dispersion (TOD) in the fiber always introduces a certain degree of asymmetry in the structure of the propagating pulse, eventually leading to pulse break-up. To date, there is no analytic theory of parabolic pulses under the action of TOD. Here, we develop aWKB perturbation analysis that describes the effect of weak TOD on the parabolic pulse solution of the NLSE in a fiber gain medium. The induced perturbation in phase and amplitude can be found to any order. The theoretical model predicts with sufficient accuracy the pulse structural changes induced by TOD, which are observed through direct numerical NLSE simulations.

Dynamics of anchored polymers under an oscillating force

We study the dynamics of a polymer of varying stiffness, pinned or grafted at both ends and subjected to an oscillatory forcing at an intermediate point. Via stochastic simulations, we find a crossover from a periodic limit cycle to an aperiodic dynamics as the polymer gets "stiffer." An analytical argument valid in the 2D grafted case shows that in such a case this aperiodic dynamics has some chaotic signatures. © 2007 The American Physical Society.

Microfluidic-controlled manufacture of liposomes for the solubilisation of a poorly water soluble drug

Besides their well-described use as delivery systems for water-soluble drugs, liposomes have the ability to act as a solubilizing agent for drugs with low aqueous solubility. However, a key limitation in exploiting liposome technology is the availability of scalable, low-cost production methods for the preparation of liposomes. Here we describe a new method, using microfluidics, to prepare liposomal solubilising systems which can incorporate low solubility drugs (in this case propofol). The setup, based on a chaotic advection micromixer, showed high drug loading (41 mol%) of propofol as well as the ability to manufacture vesicles with at prescribed sizes (between 50 and 450 nm) in a high-throughput setting. Our results demonstrate the ability of merging liposome manufacturing and drug encapsulation in a single process step, leading to an overall reduced process time. These studies emphasise the flexibility and ease of applying lab-on-a-chip microfluidics for the solubilisation of poorly water-soluble drugs.

Dissipative Raman solitons

A new type of dissipative solitons - dissipative Raman solitons - are revealed on the basis of numerical study of the generalized complex nonlinear Ginzburg-Landau equation. The stimulated Raman scattering significantly affects the energy scalability of the dissipative solitons, causing splitting to multiple pulses. We show, that an appropriate increase of the group-delay dispersion can suppress the multipulsing instability due to formation of the dissipative Raman soliton, which is chirped, has a Stokes-shifted spectrum, and chaotic modulation on its trailing edge. The strong perturbation of a soliton envelope caused by the stimulated Raman scattering confines the energy scalability, preventing the so-called dissipative soliton resonance. We show that in practical implementations, a spectral filter can extend the stability regions of high-energy pulses.

Double-Wavelet Neuron Based on Analytical Activation Functions

In this paper a new double-wavelet neuron architecture obtained by modification of standard wavelet neuron, and its learning algorithm are proposed. The offered architecture allows to improve the approximation properties of wavelet neuron. Double-wavelet neuron and its learning algorithm are examined for forecasting non-stationary chaotic time series.

Classification of Biomedical Signals using the Dynamics of the False Nearest Neighbours (DFNN) Algorithm

* This study was supported in part by the Natural Sciences and Engineering Research Council of Canada, and by the Gastrointestinal Motility Laboratory (University of Alberta Hospitals) in Edmonton, Alberta, Canada.

Comparison between conventional and stochastic pinning control

Theoretical developments on pinning control of complex dynamical networks have mainly focused on the deterministic versions of the model dynamics. However, the dynamical behavior of most real networks is often affected by stochastic noise components. In this paper the pinning control of a stochastic version of the coupled map lattice network with spatiotemporal characteristics is studied. The control of these complex dynamical networks have functional uncertainty which should be considered when calculating stabilizing control signals. Two feedback control methods are considered: the conventional feedback control and modified stochastic feedback control. It is shown that the typically-used conventional control method suffers from the ignorance of model uncertainty leading to a reduction and potentially a collapse in the control efficiency. Numerical verification of the main result is provided for a chaotic coupled map lattice network. © 2011 IEEE.

Computer-Assisted Proofs and Symbolic Computations

We discuss some main points of computer-assisted proofs based on reliable numerical computations. Such so-called self-validating numerical methods in combination with exact symbolic manipulations result in very powerful mathematical software tools. These tools allow proving mathematical statements (existence of a fixed point, of a solution of an ODE, of a zero of a continuous function, of a global minimum within a given range, etc.) using a digital computer. To validate the assertions of the underlying theorems fast finite precision arithmetic is used. The results are absolutely rigorous. To demonstrate the power of reliable symbolic-numeric computations we investigate in some details the verification of very long periodic orbits of chaotic dynamical systems. The verification is done directly in Maple, e.g. using the Maple Power Tool intpakX or, more efficiently, using the C++ class library C-XSC.

Stochastic calculations for fibre Raman amplifiers with randomly varying birefringence

For the first time for the model of real-world forward-pumped fibre Raman amplifier with the randomly varying birefringence, the stochastic calculations have been done numerically based on the Kloeden-Platen-Schurz algorithm. The results obtained for the averaged gain and gain fluctuations as a function of polarization mode dispersion (PMD) parameter agree quantitatively with the results of previously developed analytical model. Simultaneously, the direct numerical simulations demonstrate an increased stochastisation (maximum in averaged gain variation) within the region of the polarization mode dispersion parameter of 0.1÷0.3 ps/km1/2. The results give an insight into margins of applicability of a generic multi-scale technique widely used to derive coupled Manakov equations and allow generalizing analytic model with accounting for pump depletion, group-delay dispersion and Kerr-nonlinearity that is of great interest for development of the high-transmission-rates optical networks.

Langevin dynamics, large deviations and instantons for the quasi-geostrophic model and two-dimensional Euler equations

We investigate a class of simple models for Langevin dynamics of turbulent flows, including the one-layer quasi-geostrophic equation and the two-dimensional Euler equations. Starting from a path integral representation of the transition probability, we compute the most probable fluctuation paths from one attractor to any state within its basin of attraction. We prove that such fluctuation paths are the time reversed trajectories of the relaxation paths for a corresponding dual dynamics, which are also within the framework of quasi-geostrophic Langevin dynamics. Cases with or without detailed balance are studied. We discuss a specific example for which the stationary measure displays either a second order (continuous) or a first order (discontinuous) phase transition and a tricritical point. In situations where a first order phase transition is observed, the dynamics are bistable. Then, the transition paths between two coexisting attractors are instantons (fluctuation paths from an attractor to a saddle), which are related to the relaxation paths of the corresponding dual dynamics. For this example, we show how one can analytically determine the instantons and compute the transition probabilities for rare transitions between two attractors.

Az árfolyamsávok empirikus modelljei és a devizaárfolyam sávon belüli előrejelezhetetlensége = Empirical models of exchange rate target zones

A sávosan rögzített devizaárfolyamok elméleti és gyakorlati vizsgálatai a nemzetközi közgazdaságtan egyik legnépszerűbb témaköre volt a kilencvenes évek elején. A gyakorlati módszerek közül az alkalmazások és hivatkozások száma tekintetében az úgynevezett eltolódással igazítás módszere emelkedett ki. A módszert alkalmazó szerzők szerint amíg a lebegő árfolyamú devizák előrejelzése céltalan feladatnak tűnik, addig sávos árfolyam esetén az árfolyam sávon belüli helyzetének előrejelzése sikeresen végezhető. E tanulmány bemutatja, hogy az Európai Monetáris Rendszer és az északeurópai államok sávos árfolyamrendszereinél e módszer alkalmazásával adódott eredmények például a lebegő árfolyamú amerikai dollárra és az egységgyökfolyamatok többségére is érvényesek. A tanulmány feltárja e látszólagos ellentmondás okait, és bemutat egy olyan, a sávos árfolyamrendszerek főbb megfigyelt jellemzőire épülő modellt, amelynek keretei között a sávon belüli árfolyam előrejelzése nem feltétlenül lehetséges, mert a leértékelés előtti időszakban a sávon belüli árfolyam alakulása kaotikus lehet. / === / Following the development of the first exchange rate target zone model at the end of the eighties dozens of papers analyzed theoretical and empirical topics of currency bands. This paper reviews different empirical methods to analyze the credibility of the band and lays special emphasis on the most widely used method, the so-called drift-adjustment method. Papers applying that method claim that while forecasting a freely floating currency is hopeless, predicting an exchange rate within the future band is successful. This paper shows that the results achieved by applications to EMS and Nordic currencies are not specific to data of target zone currencies. For example, application to US dollar and even to most unit root processes leads qualitatively to the same. This paper explores the solutions of this puzzle and shows a model of target zones in which the exchange rate within the band is not necessarily predictable since the process might follow chaotic dynamics before devaluation.

Chaos Theory and Socio-Economic Renewal in Hungary

We utilised methods of chaos theory that were originally used in a 1990’s study to analyse the behaviour of various Hungarian socio-economic macro indicators, both historically and their expected behaviour in the future. In this study, we present the method adapted to PC and the behaviour of the selected macro indicators. We characterize the pathways our society and economy has experienced and where they are heading to into the future by the means of these indicators. Comparing the present results of analysis with the results twenty years ago (when today’s present was the future) we came to the conclusion that most of the indicators became less chaotic, thus the socio-economic courses were getting more stable over the past two decades. We conclude that the opportunity to change them is slowly diminishing, it will be more and more difficult to renew the Hungarian socio-economic indicators, and to turn the processes to more desirable courses. Recommendations for change interventions are then provided.