Uncertainty and Sensitivity Analysis in Aircraft Operating Costs in Structural Design Optimization

The paper focuses on the development of an aircraft design optimization methodology that models uncertainty and sensitivity analysis in the tradeoff between manufacturing cost, structural requirements, andaircraft direct operating cost.Specifically,ratherthanonlylooking atmanufacturingcost, direct operatingcost is also consideredintermsof the impact of weight on fuel burn, in addition to the acquisition cost to be borne by the operator. Ultimately, there is a tradeoff between driving design according to minimal weight and driving it according to reduced manufacturing cost. Theanalysis of cost is facilitated withagenetic-causal cost-modeling methodology,andthe structural analysis is driven by numerical expressions of appropriate failure modes that use ESDU International reference data. However, a key contribution of the paper is to investigate the modeling of uncertainty and to perform a sensitivity analysis to investigate the robustness of the optimization methodology. Stochastic distributions are used to characterize manufacturing cost distributions, andMonteCarlo analysis is performed in modeling the impact of uncertainty on the cost modeling. The results are then used in a sensitivity analysis that incorporates the optimization methodology. In addition to investigating manufacturing cost variance, the sensitivity of the optimization to fuel burn cost and structural loading are also investigated. It is found that the consideration of manufacturing cost does make an impact and results in a different optimal design configuration from that delivered by the minimal-weight method. However, it was shown that at lower applied loads there is a threshold fuel burn cost at which the optimization process needs to reduce weight, and this threshold decreases with increasing load. The new optimal solution results in lower direct operating cost with a predicted savings of 640=m2 of fuselage skin over the life, relating to a rough order-of-magnitude direct operating cost savings of $500,000 for the fuselage alone of a small regional jet. Moreover, it was found through the uncertainty analysis that the principle was not sensitive to cost variance, although the margins do change.

High density mangrove plantation enhances surface accretion, surface elevation change, and tree survival in coastal areas susceptible to sea-level rise

Survival, growth, above ground biomass accumulation, soil surface elevation dynamics and nitrogen accumulation in accreted sediments were studied in experimental treatments planted with four different densities (6.96, 3.26, 1.93 and 0.95 seedlings m-2) of the mangrove Rhizophora mucronata in Puttalam Lagoon, Sri Lanka. Measurements were taken over a period of 1171 days and were compared with those from unplanted controls. Trees at the lowest density showed significantly reduced survival, whilst measures of individual tree growth did not differ significantly among treatments. Rates of surface sediment accretion (means ± S.E.) were 13.0 (±1.3), 10.5 (±0.9), 8.4 (±0.3), 6.9 (±0.5) and 5.7 (±0.3) mm yr-1 at planting densities of 6.96, 3.26, 1.93, 0.95, and 0 (unplanted control) seedlings m-2, respectively, showing highly significant differences among treatments. Mean (± S.E.) rates of surface elevation change were much lower than rates of accretion at 2.8 (±0.2), 1.6 (±0.1), 1.1 (±0.2), 0.6 (±0.2) and -0.3 (±0.1) mm yr-1 for 6.96, 3.26, 1.93, 0.95, and 0 seedlings m-2, respectively. All planted treatments appeared to accumulate greater nitrogen concentrations in the sediment compared to the unplanted control, and suggests one potential causal mechanism for the facilitatory effects observed; high densities of plants potentially contribute to the accretion of greater amounts of nutrient rich sediment. While this potential process needs further study, this study demonstrated how higher densities of mangroves enhance rates of sediment accretion and surface elevation, processes that may be crucial in mangrove ecosystem adaptation to sea level rise. There was no evidence that increasing plant density evoked a trade-off with growth and survival of the planted trees. Rather facilitatory effects enhanced survival at high densities, suggesting that local land managers may be able to take advantage of plantation densities to help mitigate sea-level rise effects by encouraging positive soil surface elevation increment, and perhaps even greater nutrient retention to promote mangrove growth and ameliorate nearshore eutrophication in tropical island environments.

Inductive reasoning and semantic cognition: More than just different names for the same thing?

We describe evidence that certain inductive phenomena are associated with IQ, that different inductive phenomena emerge at different ages, and that the effects of causal knowledge on induction are decreased under conditions of memory load. On the basis of this evidence we argue that there is more to inductive reasoning than semantic cognition.