905 resultados para Causal Judgment


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Las dificultades de los gobiernos occidentales para mantener los Sistemas de Bienestar han promovido la privatización en la gestión de los servicios. Las organizaciones del Tercer Sector, en su papel como proveedoras de servicios, deben adaptarse a los cambios provocados por las demandas sociales y tratar de fomentar su participación en la configuración de los sistemas, pero siendo capaces de demostrar la eficiencia con la que desarrollan sus actividades. Ante este reto, los sistemas de gestión de la calidad ofrecen una oportunidad a las organizaciones del Tercer Sector, aunque por parte de las entidades que conforman el sector se mantienen ciertas reticencias sobre la validez del modelo a causa de su origen empresarial. Este trabajo de investigación tiene por objetivo el estudio de los procesos de implantación de un sistema de Gestión de la Calidad en las organizaciones del Tercer Sector Social. Para ello se llevó a cabo un análisis de casos múltiples, eligiendo cuatro organizaciones en diferentes estadios de implantación. El tratamiento de la información se realizó mediante el software de análisis cualitativo Atlas.ti y, para la evaluación de cada caso, se siguió el sistema de valoración del EFQM, analizando los diferentes elementos de los agentes facilitadores. Los principales resultados muestran la importancia de las alianzas, el enfoque en el usuario así como en las personas, los cuales son considerados como elementos clave para estas organizaciones. El trabajo muestra las conclusiones para cuatro casos, pero sugiere la importancia de establecer las relaciones entre los agentes facilitadores así como un análisis causal para futuras líneas de investigación.

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The European Commission has claimed a fundamental revision of the European Common Fisheries Policy in its Green Paper (EC 2001) by highlighting the reasons of continued overfishing of a number of valuable demersal fish stocks. Quotas in excess of scientific recommendations, fleet over capacities and poor enforcement of management decisions were identified causal for major stock and yield reductions while gaps in scientific advices were also criticized. The depleted cod stock in the North Sea, Skagerrak and Eastern Channel is the most prominent example. Existing and proposed management regulations were analysed by an expert group which met with fishing industry consultations in Brussels during 28 April – 7 May 2003. Depending on compliance with new technical regulations since 2000, the cod stock and its exploitation was found only marginally effected, while whiting displayed immediately significant losses in yield over long term and short term losses in haddock yields were reversed in substantial gains, also in SSB. However, reduction in fishing effort was found more effective in recovery potential than technical changes including closed areas, for which detailed information about variation in distribution of the stocks and the fisheries are required. Such effort reductions would reduce not only landings but also unregulated discarding, which is believed to be a major reason of the failure of the management measures in mixed fisheries. Recent trends in fishing effort of European fleets could not be quantified due to persistent data deficiencies.

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Background: Consensus development techniques were used in the late 1980s to create explicit criteria for the appropriateness of cataract extraction. We developed a new appropriateness of indications tool for cataract following the RAND method. We tested the validity of our panel results. Methods: Criteria were developed using a modified Delphi panel judgment process. A panel of 12 ophthalmologists was assembled. Ratings were analyzed regarding the level of agreement among panelists. We studied the influence of all variables on the final panel score using linear and logistic regression models. The explicit criteria developed were summarized by classification and regression tree analysis. Results: Of the 765 indications evaluated by the main panel in the second round, 32.9% were found appropriate, 30.1% uncertain, and 37% inappropriate. Agreement was found in 53% of the indications and disagreement in 0.9%. Seven variables were considered to create the indications and divided into three groups: simple cataract, with diabetic retinopathy, or with other ocular pathologies. The preoperative visual acuity in the cataractous eye and visual function were the variables that best explained the panel scoring. The panel results were synthesized and presented in three decision trees. Misclassification error in the decision trees, as compared with the panel original criteria, was 5.3%. Conclusion: The parameters tested showed acceptable validity for an evaluation tool. These results support the use of this indication algorithm as a screening tool for assessing the appropriateness of cataract extraction in field studies and for the development of practice guidelines.

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Based on the results of an analytical assessment, the Atlantic cod stock off Greenland collapsed already in the late 60s and, since then, reached rarely the 10 % level of its size in 1955. Applying the concept of a self-sustaining stock, the drastic harvesting strategy of the past four decades must be considered inadequate. The stock collapse was therefore found consistent with annual exploitation rates being not adjusted to conservative management options and exceeding the productivity of the stock by far. The results of a multiplicative model explained the following recruitment failure based on significant effects of spawning stock size as well as temperature. Certainly, cold periods have negatively affected the recruitment process and consequently contributed to the stock collapse. However, such ecological effects should not be itemized causal but must be taken into account regarding appropriate stock management. Till today, the spawning stock remained severely depleted causing a low probability of a successful recruitment and a substantial stock recovery.