Foreword: International Space Science Institute (ISSI) workshop on the Earth’s cryosphere and sea level change

Rising sea level is perhaps the most severe consequence of climate warming, as much of the world’s population and infrastructure is located near current sea level (Lemke et al. 2007). A major rise of a metre or more would cause serious problems. Such possibilities have been suggested by Hansen and Sato (2011) who pointed out that sea level was several metres higher than now during the Holsteinian and Eemian interglacials (about 250,000 and 120,000 years ago, respectively), even though the global temperature was then only slightly higher than it is nowadays. It is consequently of the utmost importance to determine whether such a sea level rise could occur and, if so, how fast it might happen. Sea level undergoes considerable changes due to natural processes such as the wind, ocean currents and tidal motions. On longer time scales, the sea level is influenced by steric effects (sea water expansion caused by temperature and salinity changes of the ocean) and by eustatic effects caused by changes in ocean mass. Changes in the Earth’s cryosphere, such as the retreat or expansion of glaciers and land ice areas, have been the dominant cause of sea level change during the Earth’s recent history. During the glacial cycles of the last million years, the sea level varied by a large amount, of the order of 100 m. If the Earth’s cryosphere were to disappear completely, the sea level would rise by some 65 m. The scientific papers in the present volume address the different aspects of the Earth’s cryosphere and how the different changes in the cryosphere affect sea level change. It represents the outcome of the first workshop held within the new ISSI Earth Science Programme. The workshop took place from 22 to 26 March, 2010, in Bern, Switzerland, with the objective of providing an in-depth insight into the future of mountain glaciers and the large land ice areas of Antarctica and Greenland, which are exposed to natural and anthropogenic climate influences, and their effects on sea level change. The participants of the workshop are experts in different fields including meteorology, climatology, oceanography, glaciology and geodesy; they use advanced space-based observational studies and state-of-the-art numerical modelling.

Large-scale surface mass balance of ice sheets from a comprehensive atmospheric model

The surface mass balance for Greenland and Antarctica has been calculated using model data from an AMIP-type experiment for the period 1979–2001 using the ECHAM5 spectral transform model at different triangular truncations. There is a significant reduction in the calculated ablation for the highest model resolution, T319 with an equivalent grid distance of ca 40 km. As a consequence the T319 model has a positive surface mass balance for both ice sheets during the period. For Greenland, the models at lower resolution, T106 and T63, on the other hand, have a much stronger ablation leading to a negative surface mass balance. Calculations have also been undertaken for a climate change experiment using the IPCC scenario A1B, with a T213 resolution (corresponding to a grid distance of some 60 km) and comparing two 30-year periods from the end of the twentieth century and the end of the twenty-first century, respectively. For Greenland there is change of 495 km3/year, going from a positive to a negative surface mass balance corresponding to a sea level rise of 1.4 mm/year. For Antarctica there is an increase in the positive surface mass balance of 285 km3/year corresponding to a sea level fall by 0.8 mm/year. The surface mass balance changes of the two ice sheets lead to a sea level rise of 7 cm at the end of this century compared to end of the twentieth century. Other possible mass losses such as due to changes in the calving of icebergs are not considered. It appears that such changes must increase significantly, and several times more than the surface mass balance changes, if the ice sheets are to make a major contribution to sea level rise this century. The model calculations indicate large inter-annual variations in all relevant parameters making it impossible to identify robust trends from the examined periods at the end of the twentieth century. The calculated inter-annual variations are similar in magnitude to observations. The 30-year trend in SMB at the end of the twenty-first century is significant. The increase in precipitation on the ice sheets follows closely the Clausius-Clapeyron relation and is the main reason for the increase in the surface mass balance of Antarctica. On Greenland precipitation in the form of snow is gradually starting to decrease and cannot compensate for the increase in ablation. Another factor is the proportionally higher temperature increase on Greenland leading to a larger ablation. It follows that a modest increase in temperature will not be sufficient to compensate for the increase in accumulation, but this will change when temperature increases go beyond any critical limit. Calculations show that such a limit for Greenland might well be passed during this century. For Antarctica this will take much longer and probably well into following centuries.

Testing for significance of phase synchronisation dynamics in the EEG

A number of tests exist to check for statistical significance of phase synchronisation within the Electroencephalogram (EEG); however, the majority suffer from a lack of generality and applicability. They may also fail to account for temporal dynamics in the phase synchronisation, regarding synchronisation as a constant state instead of a dynamical process. Therefore, a novel test is developed for identifying the statistical significance of phase synchronisation based upon a combination of work characterising temporal dynamics of multivariate time-series and Markov modelling. We show how this method is better able to assess the significance of phase synchronisation than a range of commonly used significance tests. We also show how the method may be applied to identify and classify significantly different phase synchronisation dynamics in both univariate and multivariate datasets.

Inhibition of proinflammatory biomarkers in THP1 macrophages by polyphenols derived from chamomile, meadowsweet and willow bark.

Antiinflammatory compounds in the diet can alleviate excessive inflammation, a factor in the pathogenesis of common diseases such as rheumatoid arthritis, atherosclerosis and diabetes. This study examined three European herbs, chamomile (Matricaria chamomilla), meadowsweet (Filipendula ulmaria L.) and willow bark (Salix alba L.), which have been traditionally used to treat inflammation and their potential for use as antiinflammatory agents. Aqueous herbal extracts and isolated polyphenolic compounds (apigenin, quercetin and salicylic acid, 0–100 μM) were incubated with THP1 macrophages, and interleukin (IL)-1β, IL-6 and tumour necrosis factor-alpha (TNF-) were measured. At concentrations of 10 μM, both apigenin and quercetin reduced IL-6 significantly ( p < 0.05). Apigenin at 10 μM and quercetin at 25 μM reduced TNF- significantly ( p < 0.05). Amongst the herbal extracts, willow bark had the greatest antiinflammatory activity at reducing IL-6 and TNF- production. This was followed by meadowsweet and then chamomile. The lowest effective antiinflammatory concentrations were noncytotoxic (MTT mitochondrial activity assay). The Comet assay, which was used to study the protective effect of the isolated phenols against oxidative damage, showed positive results for all three polyphenols. These are the first findings that demonstrate the antiinflammatory capacity of these herbal extracts.

Measurements of atmospheric electricity aloft

Measurements of the electrical characteristics of the atmosphere above the surface have been made for over 200 years, from a variety of different platforms, including kites, balloons, rockets and aircraft. From these measurements, a great deal of information about the electrical characteristics of the atmosphere has been gained, assisting our understanding of the global atmospheric electric circuit, thunderstorm electrification and lightning generation mechanisms, discovery of transient luminous events above thunderstorms, and many other electrical phenomena. This paper surveys the history of atmospheric electrical measurements aloft, from the earliest manned balloon ascents to current day observations with free balloons and aircraft. Measurements of atmospheric electrical parameters in a range of meteorological conditions are described, including clear air conditions, polluted conditions, non-thunderstorm clouds, and thunderstorm clouds, spanning a range of atmospheric conditions, from fair weather, to the most electrically active.

Multi-level planning for semi-autonomous vehicles in traffic scenarios based on separation maximization

The planning of semi-autonomous vehicles in traffic scenarios is a relatively new problem that contributes towards the goal of making road travel by vehicles free of human drivers. An algorithm needs to ensure optimal real time planning of multiple vehicles (moving in either direction along a road), in the presence of a complex obstacle network. Unlike other approaches, here we assume that speed lanes are not present and that different lanes do not need to be maintained for inbound and outbound traffic. Our basic hypothesis is to carry forward the planning task to ensure that a sufficient distance is maintained by each vehicle from all other vehicles, obstacles and road boundaries. We present here a 4-layer planning algorithm that consists of road selection (for selecting the individual roads of traversal to reach the goal), pathway selection (a strategy to avoid and/or overtake obstacles, road diversions and other blockages), pathway distribution (to select the position of a vehicle at every instance of time in a pathway), and trajectory generation (for generating a curve, smooth enough, to allow for the maximum possible speed). Cooperation between vehicles is handled separately at the different levels, the aim being to maximize the separation between vehicles. Simulated results exhibit behaviours of smooth, efficient and safe driving of vehicles in multiple scenarios; along with typical vehicle behaviours including following and overtaking.

Interpretation and expectation in childhood anxiety disorders: age effects and social specificity

Theory and treatment for childhood anxiety disorders typically implicates children’s negative cognitions, yet little is known about the characteristics of thinking styles of clinically anxious children. In particular, it is unclear whether differences in thinking styles between children with anxiety disorders and non-anxious children vary as a function of child age, whether particular cognitive distortions are associated with childhood anxiety disorders at different child ages, and whether cognitive content is disorder-specific. The current study addressed these questions among 120 7 - 12 year old children (53% female) who met diagnostic criteria for social anxiety disorder, other anxiety disorder, or who were not currently anxious. Contrary to expectations, threat interpretation was not inflated amongst anxious compared to non-anxious children at any age, although older (10 - 12 year old) anxious children did differ from non-anxious children on measures of perceived coping. The notion of cognitive-content specificity was not supported across the age-range. The findings challenge current treatment models of childhood anxiety, and suggest that a focus on changing anxious children’s cognitions is not warranted in mid-childhood, and in late childhood cognitive approaches may be better focussed on promoting children’s perceptions of control rather than challenging threat interpretations.

The neural bases of the short-term storage of verbal information are anatomically variable across individuals

What are the precise brain regions supporting the short-term retention of verbal information? A previous functional magnetic resonance imaging (fMRI) study suggested that they may be topographically variable across individuals, occurring, in most, in regions posterior to prefrontal cortex (PFC), and that detection of these regions may be best suited to a single-subject (SS) approach to fMRI analysis (Feredoes and Postle, 2007). In contrast, other studies using spatially normalized group-averaged (SNGA) analyses have localized storage-related activity to PFC. To evaluate the necessity of the regions identified by these two methods, we applied repetitive transcranial magnetic stimulation (rTMS) to SS- and SNGA-identified regions throughout the retention period of a delayed letter-recognition task. Results indicated that rTMS targeting SS analysis-identified regions of left perisylvian and sensorimotor cortex impaired performance, whereas rTMS targeting the SNGA-identified region of left caudal PFC had no effect on performance. Our results support the view that the short-term retention of verbal information can be supported by regions associated with acoustic, lexical, phonological, and speech-based representation of information. They also suggest that the brain bases of some cognitive functions may be better detected by SS than by SNGA approaches to fMRI data analysis.

High resolution simulation of recent Arctic and Antarctic stratospheric chemical ozone loss compared to observations

Simulations of polar ozone losses were performed using the three-dimensional high-resolution (1∘ × 1∘) chemical transport model MIMOSA-CHIM. Three Arctic winters 1999–2000, 2001–2002, 2002–2003 and three Antarctic winters 2001, 2002, and 2003 were considered for the study. The cumulative ozone loss in the Arctic winter 2002–2003 reached around 35% at 475 K inside the vortex, as compared to more than 60% in 1999–2000. During 1999–2000, denitrification induces a maximum of about 23% extra ozone loss at 475 K as compared to 17% in 2002–2003. Unlike these two colder Arctic winters, the 2001–2002 Arctic was warmer and did not experience much ozone loss. Sensitivity tests showed that the chosen resolution of 1∘ × 1∘ provides a better evaluation of ozone loss at the edge of the polar vortex in high solar zenith angle conditions. The simulation results for ozone, ClO, HNO3, N2O, and NO y for winters 1999–2000 and 2002–2003 were compared with measurements on board ER-2 and Geophysica aircraft respectively. Sensitivity tests showed that increasing heating rates calculated by the model by 50% and doubling the PSC (Polar Stratospheric Clouds) particle density (from 5 × 10−3 to 10−2 cm−3) refines the agreement with in situ ozone, N2O and NO y levels. In this configuration, simulated ClO levels are increased and are in better agreement with observations in January but are overestimated by about 20% in March. The use of the Burkholder et al. (1990) Cl2O2 absorption cross-sections slightly increases further ClO levels especially in high solar zenith angle conditions. Comparisons of the modelled ozone values with ozonesonde measurement in the Antarctic winter 2003 and with Polar Ozone and Aerosol Measurement III (POAM III) measurements in the Antarctic winters 2001 and 2002, shows that the simulations underestimate the ozone loss rate at the end of the ozone destruction period. A slightly better agreement is obtained with the use of Burkholder et al. (1990) Cl2O2 absorption cross-sections.

Efficient calculation of two-dimensional periodic and waveguide acoustic Green’s functions

New representations and efficient calculation methods are derived for the problem of propagation from an infinite regularly spaced array of coherent line sources above a homogeneous impedance plane, and for the Green's function for sound propagation in the canyon formed by two infinitely high, parallel rigid or sound soft walls and an impedance ground surface. The infinite sum of source contributions is replaced by a finite sum and the remainder is expressed as a Laplace-type integral. A pole subtraction technique is used to remove poles in the integrand which lie near the path of integration, obtaining a smooth integrand, more suitable for numerical integration, and a specific numerical integration method is proposed. Numerical experiments show highly accurate results across the frequency spectrum for a range of ground surface types. It is expected that the methods proposed will prove useful in boundary element modeling of noise propagation in canyon streets and in ducts, and for problems of scattering by periodic surfaces.

What (science for) adaptation to climate change in Colombian agriculture? A commentary on “A way forward on adaptation to climate change in Colombian agriculture: perspectives towards 2050” by J. Ramirez-Villegas, M. Salazar, A. Jarvis, C. E. Navarro-Valcines.

Climate change is putting Colombian agriculture under significant stress and, if no adaptation is made, the latter will be severely impacted during the next decades. Ramirez-Villegas et al. (2012) set out a government-led, top-down, techno-scientific proposal for a way forward by which Colombian agriculture could adapt to climate change. However, this proposal largely overlooks the root causes of vulnerability of Colombian agriculture, and of smallholders in particular. I discuss some of the hidden assumptions underpinning this proposal and of the arguments employed by Ramirez-Villegas et al., based on existing literature on Colombian agriculture and the wider scientific debate on adaptation to climate change. While technical measures may play an important role in the adaptation of Colombian agriculture to climate change, I question whether the actions listed in the proposal alone and specifically for smallholders, truly represent priority issues. I suggest that by i) looking at vulnerability before adaptation, ii) contextualising climate change as one of multiple exposures, and iii) truly putting smallholders at the centre of adaptation, i.e. to learn about and with them, different and perhaps more urgent priorities for action can be identified. Ultimately, I argue that what is at stake is not only a list of adaptation measures but, more importantly, the scientific approach from which priorities for action are identified. In this respect, I propose that transformative rather than technical fix adaptation represents a better approach for Colombian agriculture and smallholders in particular, in the face of climate change.

“Bad talk” made good: language variety in four Caribbean British children’s poets

This article looks at how four British-based poets born in the Caribbean exploit the rich language repertoire available to them in their work for children and young people. Following initial consideration of questions of definition and terminology, poetry collections by James Berry, John Agard, Grace Nichols and Valerie Bloom are discussed, with a focus on the interplay and creative tension between the different varieties of Caribbean creoles (“Bad Talk”) and standard English evident in their work. Variation both between the four poets’ usage and within each individual poet’s work is considered, and a trend over time towards the inclusion of fewer creole-influenced poems is noted. This and other issues, such as the labelling of the four poets’ work as ‘performance poetry’ and the nature of the poets’ contribution to British children’s literature, are considered in the conclusion.

The simulation of the opposing fluxes of latent heat and CO2 over various land-use types: coupling a gas exchange model to a mesoscale atmospheric model

A mesoscale meteorological model (FOOT3DK) is coupled with a gas exchange model to simulate surface fluxes of CO2 and H2O under field conditions. The gas exchange model consists of a C3 single leaf photosynthesis sub-model and an extended big leaf (sun/shade) sub-model that divides the canopy into sunlit and shaded fractions. Simulated CO2 fluxes of the stand-alone version of the gas exchange model correspond well to eddy-covariance measurements at a test site in a rural area in the west of Germany. The coupled FOOT3DK/gas exchange model is validated for the diurnal cycle at singular grid points, and delivers realistic fluxes with respect to their order of magnitude and to the general daily course. Compared to the Jarvis-based big leaf scheme, simulations of latent heat fluxes with a photosynthesis-based scheme for stomatal conductance are more realistic. As expected, flux averages are strongly influenced by the underlying land cover. While the simulated net ecosystem exchange is highly correlated with leaf area index, this correlation is much weaker for the latent heat flux. Photosynthetic CO2 uptake is associated with transpirational water loss via the stomata, and the resulting opposing surface fluxes of CO2 and H2O are reproduced with the model approach. Over vegetated surfaces it is shown that the coupling of a photosynthesis-based gas exchange model with the land-surface scheme of a mesoscale model results in more realistic simulated latent heat fluxes.

Energetic charged particles above thunderclouds

The French government has committed to launch the satellite TARANIS to study transient coupling processes between the Earth’s atmosphere and near-Earth space. The prime objective of TARANIS is to detect energetic charged particles and hard radiation emanating from thunderclouds. The British Nobel prize winner C.T.R. Wilson predicted lightning discharges from the top of thunderclouds into space almost a century ago. However, new experiments have only recently confirmed energetic discharge processes which transfer energy from the top of thunderclouds into the upper atmosphere and near-Earth space; they are now denoted as transient luminous events, terrestrial gamma-ray flashes and relativistic electron beams. This meeting report builds on the current state of scientific knowledge on the physics of plasmas in the laboratory and naturally occurring plasmas in the Earth’s atmosphere to propose areas of future research. The report specifically reflects presentations delivered by the members of a novel Franco-British collaboration during a meeting at the French Embassy in London held in November 2011. The scientific subjects of the report tackle ionization processes leading to electrical discharge processes, observations of transient luminous events, electromagnetic emissions, energetic charged particles and their impact on the Earth’s atmosphere. The importance of future research in this area for science and society, and towards spacecraft protection, is emphasized.

The Carnegie curve

The Earth’s fair weather atmospheric electric field shows, in clean air, an average daily variation which follows universal time, globally independent of the measurement position. This single diurnal cycle variation (maximum around 19UT and minimum around 03UT) is widely known as the Carnegie curve, after the geophysical survey vessel of the Carnegie Institution of Washington on which the original measurement campaigns demonstrating the universal time variation were undertaken. The Carnegie curve’s enduring importance is in providing a reference variation against which atmospheric electricity measurements are still compared; it is believed to originate from regular daily variations in atmospheric electrification associated with the different global disturbed weather regions. Details of the instrumentation, measurement principles and data obtained on the Carnegie’s seventh and final cruise are reviewed here, also deriving new harmonic coefficients allowing calculation of the Carnegie curve for different seasons. The additional harmonic analysis now identifies changes in the phasing of the maximum and minimum in the Carnegie curve, which shows a systematic seasonal variation, linked to the solstices and equinoxes, respectively.