Comparative study of analytical rental model and statistical models for predicting house rental levels

The need for a house rental model in Townsville, Australia is addressed. Models developed for predicting house rental levels are described. An analytical model is built upon a priori selected variables and parameters of rental levels. Regression models are generated to provide a comparison to the analytical model. Issues in model development and performance evaluation are discussed. A comparison of the models indicates that the analytical model performs better than the regression models.

Slice, mine and dice : complexity-aware automated discovery of business process models

Automated process discovery techniques aim at extracting models from information system logs in order to shed light into the business processes supported by these systems. Existing techniques in this space are effective when applied to relatively small or regular logs, but otherwise generate large and spaghetti-like models. In previous work, trace clustering has been applied in an attempt to reduce the size and complexity of automatically discovered process models. The idea is to split the log into clusters and to discover one model per cluster. The result is a collection of process models -- each one representing a variant of the business process -- as opposed to an all-encompassing model. Still, models produced in this way may exhibit unacceptably high complexity. In this setting, this paper presents a two-way divide-and-conquer process discovery technique, wherein the discovered process models are split on the one hand by variants and on the other hand hierarchically by means of subprocess extraction. The proposed technique allows users to set a desired bound for the complexity of the produced models. Experiments on real-life logs show that the technique produces collections of models that are up to 64% smaller than those extracted under the same complexity bounds by applying existing trace clustering techniques.

Groundwater visualisation system (GVS) : a software framework for integrated display and interrogation of conceptual hydrogeological models, data and time-series animation

Management of groundwater systems requires realistic conceptual hydrogeological models as a framework for numerical simulation modelling, but also for system understanding and communicating this to stakeholders and the broader community. To help overcome these challenges we developed GVS (Groundwater Visualisation System), a stand-alone desktop software package that uses interactive 3D visualisation and animation techniques. The goal was a user-friendly groundwater management tool that could support a range of existing real-world and pre-processed data, both surface and subsurface, including geology and various types of temporal hydrological information. GVS allows these data to be integrated into a single conceptual hydrogeological model. In addition, 3D geological models produced externally using other software packages, can readily be imported into GVS models, as can outputs of simulations (e.g. piezometric surfaces) produced by software such as MODFLOW or FEFLOW. Boreholes can be integrated, showing any down-hole data and properties, including screen information, intersected geology, water level data and water chemistry. Animation is used to display spatial and temporal changes, with time-series data such as rainfall, standing water levels and electrical conductivity, displaying dynamic processes. Time and space variations can be presented using a range of contouring and colour mapping techniques, in addition to interactive plots of time-series parameters. Other types of data, for example, demographics and cultural information, can also be readily incorporated. The GVS software can execute on a standard Windows or Linux-based PC with a minimum of 2 GB RAM, and the model output is easy and inexpensive to distribute, by download or via USB/DVD/CD. Example models are described here for three groundwater systems in Queensland, northeastern Australia: two unconfined alluvial groundwater systems with intensive irrigation, the Lockyer Valley and the upper Condamine Valley, and the Surat Basin, a large sedimentary basin of confined artesian aquifers. This latter example required more detail in the hydrostratigraphy, correlation of formations with drillholes and visualisation of simulation piezometric surfaces. Both alluvial system GVS models were developed during drought conditions to support government strategies to implement groundwater management. The Surat Basin model was industry sponsored research, for coal seam gas groundwater management and community information and consultation. The “virtual” groundwater systems in these 3D GVS models can be interactively interrogated by standard functions, plus production of 2D cross-sections, data selection from the 3D scene, rear end database and plot displays. A unique feature is that GVS allows investigation of time-series data across different display modes, both 2D and 3D. GVS has been used successfully as a tool to enhance community/stakeholder understanding and knowledge of groundwater systems and is of value for training and educational purposes. Projects completed confirm that GVS provides a powerful support to management and decision making, and as a tool for interpretation of groundwater system hydrological processes. A highly effective visualisation output is the production of short videos (e.g. 2–5 min) based on sequences of camera ‘fly-throughs’ and screen images. Further work involves developing support for multi-screen displays and touch-screen technologies, distributed rendering, gestural interaction systems. To highlight the visualisation and animation capability of the GVS software, links to related multimedia hosted online sites are included in the references.

Experimental and computer simulation validation of ultrasound phase interference created by lateral inhomogeneity of transit time in replica bone marrow composite models

Purpose: The measurement of broadband ultrasonic attenuation (BUA) in cancellous bone for the assessment of osteoporosis follows a parabolic-type dependence with bone volume fraction; having minima values corresponding to both entire bone and entire marrow. Langton has recently proposed that the primary BUA mechanism may be significant phase interference due to variations in propagation transit time through the test sample as detected over the phase-sensitive surface of the receive ultrasound transducer. This fundamentally simple concept assumes that the propagation of ultrasound through a complex solid : liquid composite sample such as cancellous bone may be considered by an array of parallel ‘sonic rays’. The transit time of each ray is defined by the proportion of bone and marrow propagated, being a minimum (tmin) solely through bone and a maximum (tmax) solely through marrow. A Transit Time Spectrum (TTS), ranging from tmin to tmax, may be defined describing the proportion of sonic rays having a particular transit time, effectively describing lateral inhomogeneity of transit time over the surface of the receive ultrasound transducer. Phase interference may result from interaction of ‘sonic rays’ of differing transit times. The aim of this study was to test the hypothesis that there is a dependence of phase interference upon the lateral inhomogenity of transit time by comparing experimental measurements and computer simulation predictions of ultrasound propagation through a range of relatively simplistic solid:liquid models exhibiting a range of lateral inhomogeneities. Methods: A range of test models was manufactured using acrylic and water as surrogates for bone and marrow respectively. The models varied in thickness in one dimension normal to the direction of propagation, hence exhibiting a range of transit time lateral inhomogeneities, ranging from minimal (single transit time) to maximal (wedge; ultimately the limiting case where each sonic ray has a unique transit time). For the experimental component of the study, two unfocused 1 MHz ¾” broadband diameter transducers were utilized in transmission mode; ultrasound signals were recorded for each of the models. The computer simulation was performed with Matlab, where the transit time and relative amplitude of each sonic ray was calculated. The transit time for each sonic ray was defined as the sum of transit times through acrylic and water components. The relative amplitude considered the reception area for each sonic ray along with absorption in the acrylic. To replicate phase-sensitive detection, all sonic rays were summed and the output signal plotted in comparison with the experimentally derived output signal. Results: From qualtitative and quantitative comparison of the experimental and computer simulation results, there is an extremely high degree of agreement of 94.2% to 99.0% between the two approaches, supporting the concept that propagation of an ultrasound wave, for the models considered, may be approximated by a parallel sonic ray model where the transit time of each ray is defined by the proportion of ‘bone’ and ‘marrow’. Conclusions: This combined experimental and computer simulation study has successfully demonstrated that lateral inhomogeneity of transit time has significant potential for phase interference to occur if a phase-sensitive ultrasound receive transducer is implemented as in most commercial ultrasound bone analysis devices.

Effects of changes to child car restraint legislation in Australia on seating position and restraint use

Road trauma is a leading cause of child injury worldwide and in highly motorised countries, injury as a passenger represents a major proportion of all child road deaths and hospitalisations. Australia is no exception, particularly since motorised transport to school is at high levels in most Australian states. Recently the legislation governing the type of car restraints required for children aged under 7 years has changed in most Australian states aligning requirements better with accepted best practice. However, it is unclear what effect these changes have had on children’s seating positions or the types of restraints used. A mixed methods evaluation of the impact of the new legislation on compliance was conducted at three times: baseline (Time 1); after announcement that changes were going to be implemented but before enforcement began (Time 2); and after enforcement commenced (Time 3). Measures of compliance were obtained using two methods: road-side observations of vehicles with child passengers; and parental self-report (intercept interviews conducted at Time 2 and Time 3 only). Results from the observations suggested an overall positive effect. Proportions of children occupying front seats decreased overall and use of dedicated child seas increased to almost 40% of the observed children by Time 3. However, almost a quarter of the children observed were still occupying the front seat. These results were very different from those of the interview study where almost no children were reported as usually travelling in the front seat, and the reported use of dedicated restraints with children was almost 90%, more than twice that in the observations.

Modelling word activation in semantic networks : three scaled entanglement models compared

Modelling how a word is activated in human memory is an important requirement for determining the probability of recall of a word in an extra-list cueing experiment. Previous research assumed a quantum-like model in which the semantic network was modelled as entangled qubits, however the level of activation was clearly being over-estimated. This paper explores three variations of this model, each of which are distinguished by a scaling factor designed to compensate the overestimation.

Empirical investigation of the usefulness of Gateway constructs in process models

Process modeling grammars are used to create scripts of a business domain that a process-aware information system is intended to support. A key grammatical construct of such grammars is known as a Gateway. A Gateway construct is used to describe scenarios in which the workflow of a process diverges or converges according to relevant conditions. Gateway constructs have been subjected to much academic discussion about their meaning, role and usefulness, and have been linked to both process-modeling errors and process-model understandability. This paper examines perceptual discriminability effects of Gateway constructs on an individual's abilities to interpret process models. We compare two ways of expressing two convergence and divergence patterns – Parallel Split and Simple Merge – implemented in a process modeling grammar. On the basis of an experiment with 98 students, we provide empirical evidence that Gateway constructs aid the interpretation of process models due to a perceptual discriminability effect, especially when models are complex. We discuss the emerging implications for research and practice, in terms of revisions to grammar specifications, guideline development and design choices in process modeling.

From conceptual process models to running workflows : a holistic approach for the configuration of enterprise systems

The configuration of comprehensive Enterprise Systems to meet the specific requirements of an organisation up to today is consuming significant resources. The results of failing implementation projects are severe and may even threaten the organisation’s existence. This paper proposes a method which aims at increasing the efficiency of Enterprise Systems implementations. First, we argue that existing process modelling languages that feature different degrees of abstraction for different user groups exist and are used for different purposes which makes it necessary to integrate them. We describe how to do this using the meta models of the involved languages. Second, we motivate that an integrated process model based on the integrated meta model needs to be configurable and elaborate on the mechanisms by which this model configuration can be achieved. We introduce a business example using SAP modelling techniques to illustrate the proposed method.

Contextual models and the non-Newtonian paradigm

Biological systems exhibit a wide range of contextual effects, and this often makes it difficult to construct valid mathematical models of their behaviour. In particular, mathematical paradigms built upon the successes of Newtonian physics make assumptions about the nature of biological systems that are unlikely to hold true. After discussing two of the key assumptions underlying the Newtonian paradigm, we discuss two key aspects of the formalism that extended it, Quantum Theory (QT). We draw attention to the similarities between biological and quantum systems, motivating the development of a similar formalism that can be applied to the modelling of biological processes.

Designing Innovative Business Models : A Design Catalyst Learning Resource

The term Design Led Innovation is emerging as a fundamental business process, which is rapidly being adopted by large as well as small to medium sized firms. The value that design brings to an organisation is a different way of thinking, of framing situations and possibilities, doing things and tackling problems: essentially a cultural transformation of the way the firm undertakes its business. Being Design Led is increasingly being seen by business as a driver of company growth, allowing firms to provide a strong point of difference to its stakeholders. Achieving this Design Led process, requires strong leadership to enable the organisation to develop a clear vision for top line growth. Specifically, based on deep customer insights and expanded through customer and stakeholder engagements, the outcomes of which are then adopted by all aspects of the business. To achieve this goal, several tools and processes are available, which need to be linked to new organisational capabilities within a business transformation context. The Design Led Innovation Team focuses on embedding tools and processes within an organisation and matching this with design leadership qualities to enable companies to create breakthrough innovation and achieve sustained growth, through ultimately transforming their business model. As all information for these case studies was derived from publicly accessed data, this resource is not intended to be used as reference material, but rather is a learning tool for designers to begin to consider and explore businesses at a strategic level. It is not the results that are key, but rather the process and philosophies that were used to create these case studies and disseminate this way of thinking amongst the design community. It is this process of unpacking a business guided by the framework of Osterwalder’s Business Model Canvas* which provides an important tool for designers to gain a greater perspective of a company’s true innovation potential.

Alteration of the foetal skin's response to Lipopolysaccharide (LPS) following Ureplasma Parvum exposure

Early preterm birth (<32 weeks) is associated with in utero infection and inflammation. We used an ovine model of in utero infection to ask if exposure to Ureaplasma serovar 3 (UP) modulated the response of the fetal skin to LPS.

Surgical site infection prevention following total hip arthroplasty in Australia : a cost-effectiveness analysis

Background: Surgical site infection (SSI) is associated with substantial costs for health services, reduced quality of life, and functional outcomes. The aim of this study was to evaluate the cost-effectiveness of strategies claiming to reduce the risk of SSI in hip arthroplasty in Australia. Methods: Baseline use of antibiotic prophylaxis (AP) was compared with no antibiotic prophylaxis (no AP), antibiotic-impregnated cement (AP þ ABC), and laminar air operating rooms (AP þ LOR). A Markov model was used to simulate long-term health and cost outcomes of a hypothetical cohort of 30,000 total hip arthroplasty patients from a health services perspective. Model parameters were informed by the best available evidence. Uncertainty was explored in probabilistic sensitivity and scenario analyses. Results: Stopping the routine use of AP resulted in over Australian dollars (AUD) $1.5 million extra costs and a loss of 163 quality-adjusted life years (QALYs). Using antibiotic cement in addition to AP (AP þ ABC)generated an extra 32 QALYs while saving over AUD $123,000. The use of laminar air operating rooms combined with routine AP (AP þ LOR) resulted in an AUD $4.59 million cost increase and 127 QALYs lost compared with the baseline comparator. Conclusion: Preventing deep SSI with antibiotic prophylaxis and antibiotic-impregnated cement has shown to improve health outcomes among hospitalized patients, save lives, and enhance resource allocation. Based on this evidence, the use of laminar air operating rooms is not recommended.

Critical factors for successful housing reconstruction projects following a major disaster

Post–disaster reconstruction projects are often considered ineffectual or unproductive because on many occasions in the past they have performed extremely poorly during post-contract occupation, or have failed altogether to deliver acceptable outcomes. In some cases, these projects have already failed even before their completion, leading many sponsor aid organisations to hold these projects up as examples of how not to deliver housing reconstruction. Research into some previous unsuccessful projects has revealed that often the lack of adequate knowledge regarding the context and complexity involved in the implementation of these projects is generally responsible for their failure. Post-disaster reconstruction projects are certainly very complex in nature, often very context-specific and they can vary widely in magnitude. Despite such complexity, reconstruction projects can still have a high likelihood of success if adequate consideration is given to the importance of factors which are known to positively influence reconstruction efforts. Good outcomes can be achieved when planners and practitioners ensure best practices are embedded in the design of reconstruction projects at the time reconstruction projects they are first instigated. This paper outlines and discusses factors that significantly contribute to the successful delivery of post-disaster housing reconstruction projects.