Cost analysis error? Exploring issues relating to whole-life cost estimation in sustainable housing

Purpose: The main purpose of the study is to promote consideration of the issues and approaches available for costing sustainable buildings with a view to minimising cost overruns, occasioned by conservative whole-life cost estimates. The paper primarily looks at the impact of adopting continuity in whole-life cost models for zero carbon houses. Design/methodology/approach: The study embraces a mathematically based risk procedure based on the binomial theorem for analysing the cost implication of the Lighthouse zero-carbon house project. A practical application of the continuous whole-life cost model is developed and results are compared with existing whole-life cost techniques using finite element methods and Monte Carlo analysis. Findings: With standard whole-life costing, discounted present-value analysis tends to underestimate the cost of a project. Adopting continuity in whole-life cost models presents a clearer picture and profile of the economic realities and decision-choices confronting clients and policy-makers. It also expands the informative scope on the costs of zero-carbon housing projects. Research limitations/implications: A primary limitation in this work is its focus on just one property type as the unit of analysis. This research is also limited in its consideration of initial and running cost categories only. The capital cost figures for the Lighthouse are indicative rather than definitive. Practical implications: The continuous whole-life cost technique is a novel and innovative approach in financial appraisal [...] Benefits of an improved costing framework will be far-reaching in establishing effective policies aimed at client acceptance and optimally performing supply chain networks. Originality/value: The continuous whole-life costing pioneers an experimental departure from the stereo-typical discounting mechanism in standard whole-life costing procedures.

A survey of the meat goat industry in Queensland and New South Wales. 1. General property information, goat and pasture management.

This study aimed to survey farmers knowledge and practices on the management of pastures, stocking rates and markets of meat goat-producing enterprises within New South Wales and Queensland, Australia. An interview-based questionnaire was conducted on properties that derived a significant proportion of their income from goats. The survey covered 31 landholders with a total land area of 567 177 ha and a reported total of 160 010 goats. A total of 55% (17/31) of producers were involved in both opportunistic harvesting and commercial goat operations, and 45% (14/31) were specialised seedstock producers. Goats were the most important livestock enterprise on 55% (17/31) of surveyed properties. Stocking rate varied considerably (0.3?9.3 goats/ha) within and across surveyed properties and was found to be negatively associated with property size and positively associated with rainfall. Overall, 81% (25/31) of producers reported that the purpose of running goats on their properties was to target international markets. Producers also cited the importance of targeting markets as a way to increase profitability. Fifty-three percent of producers were located over 600 km from a processing plant and the high cost of freight can limit the continuity of goats supplied to abattoirs. Fencing was an important issue for goat farmers, with many producers acknowledging this could potentially add to capital costs associated with better goat management and production. Producers in the pastoral regions appear to have a low investment in pasture development and opportunistic goat harvesting appears to be an important source of income.

A Low Cost Controller Board for Teaching Robotics

This paper presents the Smarty Board; a new micro-controller board designed specifically for the robotics teaching needs of Australian schools. The primary motivation for this work was the lack of commercially available and cheap controller boards that would have all their components including interfaces on a single board. Having a single board simplifies the construction of programmable robots that can be used as platforms for teaching and learning robotics. Reducing the cost of the board as much as possible was one of the main design objectives. The target user groups for this device are the secondary and tertiary students, and hobbyists. Previous studies have shown that equipment cost is one of the major obstacles for teaching robotics in Australia. The new controller board was demonstrated at high-school seminars. In these demonstrations the new controller board was used for controlling two robots that we built. These robots are available as kits. Given the strong demand from high-school teachers, new kits will be developed for the next robotic Olympiad to be held in Australia in 2006.

The impact of planning delays and other holding costs on housing affordability

Housing affordability is gaining increasing prominence in the Australian socioeconomic landscape, despite strong economic growth and prosperity. It is a major consideration for any new development. However, it is multi-dimensional, has many facets, is complex and interwoven. One factor widely held to impact housing affordability is holding costs. Although it is only one contributor, the nature and extent of its impact requires clarification. It is certainly more multifarious than simple calculation of the interest or opportunity cost of land holding. For example, preliminary analysis suggests that even small shifts in the regulatory assessment period can significantly affect housing affordability. Other costs associated with “holding” also impact housing affordability, however these costs cannot always be easily identified. Nevertheless it can be said that ultimately the real impact is felt by those whom can least afford it - new home buyers whom can be relatively easily pushed into the realms of un-affordability.

Initial steps in optimal planning of a distribution system

This paper reports the initial steps of research on planning of rural networks for MV and LV. In this paper, two different cases are studied. In the first case, 100 loads are distributed uniformly on a 100 km transmission line in a distribution network and in the second case, the load structure become closer to the rural situation. In case 2, 21 loads are located in a distribution system so that their distance is increasing, distance between load 1 and 2 is 3 km, between 2 and 3 is 6 km, etc). These two models to some extent represent the distribution system in urban and rural areas, respectively. The objective function for the design of the optimal system consists of three main parts: cost of transformers, and MV and LV conductors. The bus voltage is expressed as a constraint and should be maintained within a standard level, rising or falling by no more than 5%.

Traps for the unwary : reform stories of private sector managers entering public service

The purpose of this research is to capture and interpret the stories of “outsider” managers who make the transition to the public sector. These experiences are considered in the context of efforts to shift public management culture in a direction consistent with meeting contemporary demands placed on public sector organisations. It is often noted that an important strategy for changing culture is the infusion of outsiders. Outsiders are thought to bring new perspectives that, through a dialectical process (Van de Ven 1995), create the potential for change. While there have been cross-sector comparisons (Broussine 1990; Silfvast 1994; Redman 1997), little attention has been given to the experience of those who make the transition in the context of efforts to reform public sector management culture. Not only is the infusion of private sector managers into the public sector a potential culture change strategy, it is also a personal experience for those who make the transition. Boundary crossing is typically an anxiety provoking experience (Van Maanen & Schein 1979) and the quality of this experience influences decisions to commit, engage, disengage or exit. The quality of the experience is likely to be affected by how the public organisation responds to people making this transition, that is, their investment in people processing (Saks 2007). The cost of recruitment and selection processes at middle and senior management levels warrants a greater research focus on this transition. In this paper we argue that the experiences of those who make the transition from private to public sectors has much to tell us about the traps that transition managers experience in making this change, the implications for injecting outsider managers as a strategy for achieving public management culture change, and how reform-oriented public organisations can manage the transitions of outsider managers into the public sector in order that best value might be achieved for both the individual and organisational change goals.

Optimal allocation of a cross-connection and sectionalizers in distribution systems

In this paper, the placement of sectionalizers, as well as, a cross-connection is optimally determined so that the objective function is minimized. The objective function employed in this paper consists of two main parts, the switch cost and the reliability cost. The switch cost is composed of the cost of sectionalizers and cross-connection and the reliability cost is assumed to be proportional to a reliability index, SAIDI. To optimize the allocation of sectionalizers and cross-connection problem realistically, the cost related to each element is considered as discrete. In consequence of binary variables for the availability of sectionalizers, the problem is extremely discrete. Therefore, the probability of local minimum risk is high and a heuristic-based optimization method is needed. A Discrete Particle Swarm Optimization (DPSO) is employed in this paper to deal with this discrete problem. Finally, a testing distribution system is used to validate the proposed method.

Performance Benchmarking of Australian Business Regulation : Submission to the Productivity Commission

The need to “reduce red tape” and regulatory inconsistencies is a desirable outcome (OECD 1997) for developed countries. The costs normally associated with regulatory regimes are compliance costs and direct charges. Geiger and Hoffman (1998) have noted that the extent of regulation in an industry tends to be negatively associated with firm performance. Typically, approaches to estimation of the cost of regulations examine direct costs, such as fees and charges, together with indirect costs, such as compliance costs. However, in a fragmented system, such as Australia, costs can also be incurred due to procedural delays, either by government, or by industry having to adapt documentation for different spheres of government; lack of predictable outcomes, with variations occurring between spheres of government and sometimes within the same government agency; and lost business opportunities, with delays and red tape preventing realisation of business opportunities (OECD 1997). In this submission these costs are termed adaptation costs. The adaptation costs of complying with variations in regulations between the states has been estimated by the Building Product Innovation Council (2003) as being up to $600 million per annum for building product manufacturers alone. Productivity gains from increased harmonisation of the regulatory system have been estimated in the hundreds of millions of dollars (ABCB 2003). This argument is supported by international research which found that increasing the harmonisation of legislation in a federal system of government reduces what we have termed adaptation costs (OECD 2001). Research reports into the construction industry in Australia have likewise argued that improved consistency in the regulatory environment could lead to improvements in innovation (PriceWaterhouseCoopers 2002), and that research into this area should be given high priority (Hampson & Brandon 2004). The opinion of industry in Australia has consistently held that the current regulatory environment inhibits innovation (Manley 2004). As a first step in advancing improvements to the current situation, a summary of the current costs experienced by industry needs to be articulated. This executive summary seeks to outline these costs in the hope that the Productivity Commission would be able to identify the best tools to quantify the actual costs to industry.

Selected elements of housing affordability impacting otherwise potentially sustainable communities

It is widely held that strong relationships exist between housing, economic status, and well being. Therefore, recent events emerging from the United States, culminating in widespread housing stock surpluses in that country and others, threaten to destabilise many aspects related to individuals and community. However, despite global impact, the position of housing demand and supply is not consistent. The Australian position provides a strong contrast whereby continued strong housing demand generally remains a critical issue affecting the socio-economic landscape. Underpinned by strong levels of immigration, and further buoyed by sustained historically low interest rates, increasing income levels, and increased government assistance for first home buyers, this strong housing demand ensures elements related to housing affordability continue to gain prominence. A significant, but less visible factor impacting housing affordability – particularly new housing development – relates to holding costs. These costs are in many ways “hidden” and cannot always be easily identified. Although it is only one contributor, the nature and extent of its impact requires elucidation. In its simplest form, it commences with a calculation of the interest or opportunity cost of land holding. However, there is significantly more complexity for major new developments - particularly greenfield development. Analysis suggests that even small shifts in primary factors impacting holding costs can appreciably affect housing affordability. Those factors of greatest significance not only include interest rates and the rate of inflation, but even less apparent factors such as the regulatory assessment period. These are not just theoretical concepts but real, measurable price drivers. Ultimately, the real impact is felt by the one market segment whom can typically least afford it – new home, first home buyers. They can be easily pushed out of affordability. This paper suggests the stability and sustainability of growing, new communities require this problem to be acknowledged and accurately identified if the well being of such communities is to be achieved.

Downtime reduction analysis of the Australia Post flat mail optical character reader

Machine downtime, whether planned or unplanned, is intuitively costly to manufacturing organisations, but is often very difficult to quantify. The available literature showed that costing processes are rarely undertaken within manufacturing organisations. Where cost analyses have been undertaken, they generally have only valued a small proportion of the affected costs, leading to an overly conservative estimate. This thesis aimed to develop a cost of downtime model, with particular emphasis on the application of the model to Australia Post’s Flat Mail Optical Character Reader (FMOCR). The costing analysis determined a cost of downtime of $5,700,000 per annum, or an average cost of $138 per operational hour. The second section of this work focused on the use of the cost of downtime to objectively determine areas of opportunity for cost reduction on the FMOCR. This was the first time within Post that maintenance costs were considered along side of downtime for determining machine performance. Because of this, the results of the analysis revealed areas which have historically not been targeted for cost reduction. Further exploratory work was undertaken on the Flats Lift Module (FLM) and Auto Induction Station (AIS) Deceleration Belts through the comparison of the results against two additional FMOCR analysis programs. This research has demonstrated the development of a methodical and quantifiable cost of downtime for the FMOCR. This has been the first time that Post has endeavoured to examine the cost of downtime. It is also one of the very few methodologies for valuing downtime costs that has been proposed in literature. The work undertaken has also demonstrated how the cost of downtime can be incorporated into machine performance analysis with specific application to identifying high costs modules. The outcome of this report has both been the methodology for costing downtime, as well as a list of areas for cost reduction. In doing so, this thesis has outlined the two key deliverables presented at the outset of the research.

Effect of female sex hormones on Chlamydia trachomatis growth and gene expression

Transmissible diseases are re-emerging as a global problem, with Sexually Transmitted Diseases (STDs) becoming endemic. Chlamydia trachomatis is the leading cause of bacterially-acquired STD worldwide, with the Australian cost of infection estimated at $90 - $160 million annually. Studies using animal models of genital tract Chlamydia infection suggested that the hormonal status of the genital tract epithelium at the time of exposure may influence the outcome of infection. Oral contraceptive use also increased the risk of contracting chlamydial infections compared to women not using contraception. Generally it was suggested that the outcome of chlamydial infection is determined in part by the hormonal status of the epithelium at the time of exposure. Using the human endolmetrial cell line ECC-1 this study investigated the effects of C. trachomatis serovar D infection, in conjunction with the female sex hormones, 17β-estradiol and progesterone, on chlamydial gene expression. While previous studies have examined the host response, this is the first study to examine C.trachomatis gene expression under different hormonal conditions. We have highlighted a basic model of C. trachomatis gene regulation in the presence of steroid hormones by identifying 60 genes that were regulated by addition of estradiol and/or progesterone. In addition, the third chapter of this thesis discussed and compared the significance of the current findings in the context of data from other research groups to improve our understanding of the molecular basis of chlamydial persistence under hormonal different conditions. In addition, this study analysed the effects of these female sex hormones and C. trachomatis Serovar D infection, on host susceptibility and bacterial growth. Our results clearly demonstrated that addition of steroid hormones not only had a great impact on the level of infectivity of epithelial cells with C.trachomatis serovar D, but also the morphology of chlamydial inclusions was affected by hormone supplementation.

Effects of visuospatial tasks on desensitization to emotive memories

Objectives. Intrusive memories of extreme trauma can disrupt a stepwise approach to imaginal exposure. Concurrent tasks that load the visuospatial sketchpad (VSSP) of working memory reduce the vividness of recalled images. This study tested whether relief of distress from competing VSSP tasks during imaginal exposure is at the cost of impaired desensitization . Design. This study examined repeated exposure to emotive memories using 18 unselected undergraduates and a within-subjects design with three exposure conditions (Eye Movement, Visual Noise, Exposure Alone) in random, counterbalanced order. Method. At baseline, participants recalled positive and negative experiences, and rated the vividness and emotiveness of each image. A different positive and negative recollection was then used for each condition. Vividness and emotiveness were rated after each of eight exposure trials. At a post-exposure session 1 week later, participants rated each image without any concurrent task. Results. Consistent with previous research, vividness and distress during imaging were lower during Eye Movements than in Exposure Alone, with passive visual interference giving intermediate results. A reduction in emotional responses from Baseline to Post was of similar size for the three conditions. Conclusion. Visuospatial tasks may offer a temporary response aid for imaginal exposure without affecting desensitization.

The impact of flooding on residential property values in England

Severe flooding throughout England in Autumn 1998 and 2000, has seen an increase in the extent of flood liable residential areas throughout England, as well as an increase in the actual levels of flood damage in all previously recognised flood prone residential areas. The increasing cost of rectifying the damage caused to residential properties from flooding has been of some concern to the residential property valuation profession and sales and leasing agency practices. However, the increasing trend in the frequency of flooding in England, combined with an increase in severity of flooding is now causing some degree of concern in the residential insurance and housing finance sectors. In order to determine and quantify the impact of flooding and flood damage on the residential property market in England, a survey of Chartered Surveyors and Chartered Real Estate Valuers has been carried out across the main flood affected counties of England. This survey will provide similar details to the research completed by Eves (1999, 2001) and Fibbens (1993) in relation to residential property flooding in Australia. This survey provides comprehensive responses in relation to the degree of flood affectation across counties, the effect of flooding on residential property values, the impact of flooding on building insurance premiums and possible difficulties in obtaining finance to purchase residential property in recognised flood areas.

The innovation deficit in public services : the curious problem of too much efficiency and not enough waste and failure

It has long been recognised that government and public sector services suffer an innovation deficit compared to private or market-based services. This paper argues that this can be explained as an unintended consequence of the concerted public sector drive toward the elimination of waste through efficiency, accountability and transparency. Yet in an evolving economy this can be a false efficiency, as it also eliminates the 'good waste' that is a necessary cost of experimentation. This results in a systematic trade0off in the public sector between the static efficiency of minimizing the misuse of public resources and the dynamic efficiency of experimentation. this is inherently biased against risk and uncertainty and therein, explains why governments find service innovation so difficult. In the drive to eliminate static inefficiencies, many political systems have susequently overshot and stifled policy innovation. I propose the 'Red Queen' solution of adaptive economic policy.

Determining a set of surrogate parameters to evaluate urban stormwater quality

This thesis details methodology to estimate urban stormwater quality based on a set of easy to measure physico-chemical parameters. These parameters can be used as surrogate parameters to estimate other key water quality parameters. The key pollutants considered in this study are nitrogen compounds, phosphorus compounds and solids. The use of surrogate parameter relationships to evaluate urban stormwater quality will reduce the cost of monitoring and so that scientists will have added capability to generate a large amount of data for more rigorous analysis of key urban stormwater quality processes, namely, pollutant build-up and wash-off. This in turn will assist in the development of more stringent stormwater quality mitigation strategies. The research methodology was based on a series of field investigations, laboratory testing and data analysis. Field investigations were conducted to collect pollutant build-up and wash-off samples from residential roads and roof surfaces. Past research has identified that these impervious surfaces are the primary pollutant sources to urban stormwater runoff. A specially designed vacuum system and rainfall simulator were used in the collection of pollutant build-up and wash-off samples. The collected samples were tested for a range of physico-chemical parameters. Data analysis was conducted using both univariate and multivariate data analysis techniques. Analysis of build-up samples showed that pollutant loads accumulated on road surfaces are higher compared to the pollutant loads on roof surfaces. Furthermore, it was found that the fraction of solids smaller than 150 ìm is the most polluted particle size fraction in solids build-up on both roads and roof surfaces. The analysis of wash-off data confirmed that the simulated wash-off process adopted for this research agrees well with the general understanding of the wash-off process on urban impervious surfaces. The observed pollutant concentrations in wash-off from road surfaces were different to pollutant concentrations in wash-off from roof surfaces. Therefore, firstly, the identification of surrogate parameters was undertaken separately for roads and roof surfaces. Secondly, a common set of surrogate parameter relationships were identified for both surfaces together to evaluate urban stormwater quality. Surrogate parameters were identified for nitrogen, phosphorus and solids separately. Electrical conductivity (EC), total organic carbon (TOC), dissolved organic carbon (DOC), total suspended solids (TSS), total dissolved solids (TDS), total solids (TS) and turbidity (TTU) were selected as the relatively easy to measure parameters. Consequently, surrogate parameters for nitrogen and phosphorus were identified from the set of easy to measure parameters for both road surfaces and roof surfaces. Additionally, surrogate parameters for TSS, TDS and TS which are key indicators of solids were obtained from EC and TTU which can be direct field measurements. The regression relationships which were developed for surrogate parameters and key parameter of interest were of a similar format for road and roof surfaces, namely it was in the form of simple linear regression equations. The identified relationships for road surfaces were DTN-TDS:DOC, TP-TS:TOC, TSS-TTU, TDS-EC and TSTTU: EC. The identified relationships for roof surfaces were DTN-TDS and TSTTU: EC. Some of the relationships developed had a higher confidence interval whilst others had a relatively low confidence interval. The relationships obtained for DTN-TDS, DTN-DOC, TP-TS and TS-EC for road surfaces demonstrated good near site portability potential. Currently, best management practices are focussed on providing treatment measures for stormwater runoff at catchment outlets where separation of road and roof runoff is not found. In this context, it is important to find a common set of surrogate parameter relationships for road surfaces and roof surfaces to evaluate urban stormwater quality. Consequently DTN-TDS, TS-EC and TS-TTU relationships were identified as the common relationships which are capable of providing measurements of DTN and TS irrespective of the surface type.