Integration of renewable generation uncertainties into stochastic unit commitment considering reserve and risk: a comparative study

The uncertainties of renewable energy have brought great challenges to power system commitment, dispatches and reserve requirement. This paper presents a comparative study on integration of renewable generation uncertainties into SCUC (stochastic security-constrained unit commitment) considering reserve and risk. Renewable forecast uncertainties are captured by a list of PIs (prediction intervals). A new scenario generation method is proposed to generate scenarios from these PIs. Different system uncertainties are considered as scenarios in the stochastic SCUC problem formulation. Two comparative simulations with single (E1: wind only) and multiple sources of uncertainty (E2: load, wind, solar and generation outages) are investigated. Five deterministic and four stochastic case studies are performed. Different generation costs, reserve strategies and associated risks are compared under various scenarios. Demonstrated results indicate the overall costs of E2 is lower than E1 due to penetration of solar power and the associated risk in deterministic cases of E2 is higher than E1. It implies the superimposed effect of uncertainties during uncertainty integration. The results also demonstrate that power systems run a higher level of risk during peak load hours, and that stochastic models are more robust than deterministic ones.

Re-framing risk transfer to assess integrative partnership opportunities: the S.A.R. approach and the AIG/BID/CNO regional surety bond facility of 2007

Identificar, compartilhar e gerenciar os riscos de contratar são preocupações que impedem o estabelicmento e a administração das Parcerias Públicos Particulares (PPP). Porem, gerentes das entidades públicas, bancos de formento, construtoras e seguradoras pesquisam e utilizam muitas técnicas para enfrentar a avaliação e gerenciamento dos riscos. A transferência de risco é uma indicação dos chamados benefícios que são inspirados pelos PPP, contudo devido às realidades contratuais e conceptuais, a entidade de cede o risco (o partido público) permanece quase sempre como o portador final do risco. Conseqüentemente, o partido público retem um interesse de resistência na gerência total destes riscos cedidos. Esta dissertação explora alguns defeitos das aproximações comuns a conceituar a gestão de risco no contexto de um PPP. Focalizando os conceitos da interdependência e da reciprocidade e usando na decisão para transferir o risco do projeto, esta dissertação molda a decisão para transferir o risco nos termos das realidades interdependentes de relacionamentos sistemáticos, alargam os conceitos técnicos do risco e da avaliação de risco, considerando o uso reflexivo das diferenças na analise de um estudo de caso. O autor explora estes conceitos em uma análise da decisão de um gerente de risco da empresa de construção civil brasileira Construtora Norberto Odebrecht (ODB) para projetar uma facilidade inovadora da ligação de garantia com Inter-American Development Bank (BID) e uma seguradora, American International Group (AIG), um negócio que ganhe o reconhecimento Trade Finance Magazine’s 2007 deal of the year. O autor mostra que por compreender a transferência de risco nos termos abordados nesta dissertação, um atore que transfere o risco pode identificar e criar mais oportunidades de estabelecer relacionamentos em longo prazo, através dos processos que a literatura atual do PPP ainda não considere. Os resultados devem fornecer contribuições para a pesquisas sobre a transferência do risco do projeto, na cooperação entre organizações e na seleção do sócio do projeto do potencial.

A simple approach to integrate the ecotoxicological and chemical data for the establishment of environmental risk levels

Fundação de Amparo à Pesquisa do Estado de São Paulo (FAPESP)

Polymorphisms in the AR and PSA Genes as Markers of Susceptibility and Aggressiveness in Prostate Cancer

Coordenação de Aperfeiçoamento de Pessoal de Nível Superior (CAPES)

No relationship between subchronic fluoride intake and DNA damage in Wistar rats

Fluoride has been widely used in dentistry because it is an effective caries prophylactic agent. However, excess fluoride may represent a hazard to human health, especially by causing injury on the genetic apparatus. Genotoxicity tests form an important part of cancer research and risk assessment of potential carcinogens. In the current study, the potential DNA damage associated with exposure to fluoride was assessed by the single cell gel ( comet) assay in peripheral blood, oral mucosa and brain cells in vivo. Male Wistar rats were exposed to sodium fluoride (NaF) at a 0, 7 and 100 ppm dose for drinking water during 6 weeks. The results pointed out that NaF did not contribute to the DNA damage in all cellular types evaluated as depicted by the mean tail moment and tail intensity. These findings are clinically important since they represent an important contribution to the correct evaluation of the potential health risk associated with dental agents exposure. Copyright (C) 2004 S. Karger AG, Basel.

In Vivo Models for Measuring Placental Glutatione-S-transferase (GST-P 7-7) Levels: A Suitable Biomarker for Understanding Cancer Pathogenesis

The Glutatione-S-transferases (GSTs) comprise a family of enzymes closely associated with the cell detoxification of xenobiotics. GSTs exist as homo- or heterodimers and have been grouped into at least seven distinct classes. The main function of GSTs is to catalyze the conjugation of reduced glutathione (GSH) to an electrophilic site of a broad range of potentially toxic and carcinogenic compounds, thereby making such compounds less dangerous and enabling their ready-excretion. Placental GST, known as GST-P 7-7, is the main isoform found in normal placental tissue and comprises 67% of the total GST concentration in this tissue. During development, GST-P 7-7 decreases in concentration and is absent in adult tissues. Interestingly, GST-P 7-7 expression has been detected in adult tissues after exposure to carcinogenic agents in several experimental test systems, being considered a reliable biomarker of exposure and susceptibility in early phases of carcinogenesis. In this article, we review a series of studies involving GST-P 7-7 expression as a suitable tool for understanding cancer pathogenesis, especially cancer risk.

Interactions between genetic predisposition and environmental toxicants for development of lung cancer

Significant interindividual variations in health outcome may be caused by the inheritance of variant polymorphic genes, such as CYP2D6 and CYP2E1 for activation, and GSTM1 and GSTT1 for detoxification of chemicals. However. mechanistic studies linking the inheritance of predisposing genes with genotoxic effects towards cancer have yet to be systematically conducted. We have studied 54 lung cancer patients and 50 matched normal controls, who have been cigarette smokers, to elucidate the role of polymorphic genes in cancer. Our data indicates that the inheritance of unfavorable CYP2D6, CYP2E1, and GSTT1 genes is strongly correlated with the smoking-related lung cancer. For heavy cigarette smokers (> 30 pack-years), the smoking habit is the strongest predictor of lung cancer risk irrespective of the inheritance of unfavorable metabolizing genes. For moderate to light smokers (< 30 pack-years), the genetic predisposition plays on important role For the risk (odds ratio = 3.46; 95% CL = 0.46-40.2). Using a subgroup of the study population, we observed that cigarette smokers having the defective GST genes have significantly more chromosome aberrations as determined by the fluorescence-in-situ-hybridization (FISH) technique than smokers with the normal GST genes (P < 0.001). In conclusion, our study provides data to indicate that individuals who have inherited unfavorable metabolizing genes have increased body burden of toxicants to cause increased genetic damage and to have increased risk for cancer. Studies like ours can be used to understand the basis for interindividual variations in cancer outcome, to identify high risk individuals and to assess health risk. (C) 1997 Wiley Liss, Inc.

Cigarette smoking and high-risk HPV DNA as predisposing factors for high-grade cervical intraepithelial neoplasia (CIN) in young Brazilian women

Background. This cross-sectional study was designed to evaluate the role of cigarette smoking and high-risk HPV types as risk factors of CIN 2 and 3 in young, sexually active Brazilian women. Materials and method. A series of 100 consecutive women with abnormal Pap smears were recruited, subjected to colposcopy, punch biopsy, and questionnaire for their social, sexual and reproductive factors. Of these, 77 women between 20 and 35 years of age (median 26.5 years) with biopsy-confirmed CIN 1 or CIN 2 and 3, were enrolled in this study. Representative samples from the exocervix and endocervix were obtained for HPV testing with the Hybrid Capture HPV-DNA assay, including the probes for the oncogenic HPV types (16, 18, 31, 33, 35, 45, 51, 52 and 56). Results. The overall rate of CIN 2 and 3 was 23/77 (29.8%). The women with CIN 1, 2 and 3 did not differ from each other with regard to their age, race, schooling, marital status, life-time number of sexual partners, age at first intercourse, use of oral contraceptives, or parity. However, current cigarette smoking was strongly associated with CIN 2 and 3 (p < 0,001), and among smokers, the risk of high-grade CIN increased in parallel with the time of exposure (years of smoking) p = 0.07), HPV-DNA of the oncogenic types was detected in 43 (56%) women, the risk of being HPV DNA-positive was significantly higher in CIN 2 and 3 as compared with CIN 1 (p = 0.037). Importantly, the prevalence of high-risk HPV types was significantly higher in cigarette smokers than in non-smokers (p = 0.046). Conclusions. The results indicate that the severity of CIN lesions was clearly related to two fundamental risk factors: 1) high-risk HPV types, and 2) current cigarette smoking. These two risk factors were closely interrelated in that the high-risk HPV types were significantly more frequent in current smokers than in non-smokers, suggesting the possibility of a synergistic action between these two risk factors in cervical carcinogenesis.

Pancreatic β-cell defects in women at risk of type 2 diabetes

We evaluated insulin release and insulin sensitivity in women with basal and/or postprandial hyperglycemia but normal oral glucose tolerance test (OGTT) in previous pregnancy (GHG). These women were individually matched with females without previous hyperglycemia (NGT). Both groups consisted of normal glucose-tolerant women at the time of this study. They underwent OGTT (75g; n= 32 pairs) and hyperglycemic clamp experiments (10mmoll-1; n=27 pairs) with plasma glucose, insulin, and C-peptide measurements and calculation of insulinogenic index, first- and second-phase insulin release, and insulin sensitivity index (ISI). The GHG group showed higher glycosylated hemoglobin levels (6.2±0.6% versus 5.8±0.8%; P<0.05); lower insulinogenic index at 30min (134.03±62.69pmolmmol-1 versus 181.59±70.26pmolmmoll-1; P<0.05) and diminished C-peptide response in relation to glucose (4.05±0.36nmolmmol-1 versus 4.23±0.36nmolmmol-1; P<0.05) at OGTT. Both groups did not show difference in insulin secretion and ISI by hyperglycemic clamp technique. We concluded that in up to 12 years from index pregnancy, women with previous GHG, presenting normal glucose tolerance and well-matched with their controls, showed β-cell dysfunction without change in ISI. As women with previous GHG are at risk of type 2 diabetes, β-cell dysfunction may be its primary defect. © 2003 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

GSTT1, GSTM1 and CYP2E1 genetic polymorphisms in gastric cancer and chronic gastritis in a Brazilian population

Coordenação de Aperfeiçoamento de Pessoal de Nível Superior (CAPES)

Testes de biocompatibilidade in vitro de duas formas comerciais do agregado de trióxido mineral

Recently, regular and white mineral trioxide aggregate (MTA) are being used in Dentistry as retrofilling materials. Genotoxicity and cytotoxicity tests form an important part of cancer research and risk assessment of potential carcinogens. Thus, the goal of this study was to examine the genotoxicity and cytotoxicity of regular and white MTA in vitro by the single cell gel (comet) assay and trypan blue exclusion test, respectively. Mouse lymphoma cells were exposed to two presentation forms of MTA at final concentrations ranging from 1 to 1,000 μg/mL for 3 h at 37°C. The results showed that both compounds tested did not produce genotoxic effects at all concentrations evaluated. Likewise, no statistically significant differences (p > 0.05) were observed in cytotoxicity. Taken together, our results suggest that regular and white MTA are not genotoxins and are not able to interfere in cellular viability as assessed by single cell gel (comet) assay and trypan blue assay, respectively.

Chronological Monte Carlo-based assessment of distribution system reliability

Regulatory authorities in many countries, in order to maintain an acceptable balance between appropriate customer service qualities and costs, are introducing a performance-based regulation. These regulations impose penalties, and in some cases rewards, which introduce a component of financial risk to an electric power utility due to the uncertainty associated with preserving a specific level of system reliability. In Brazil, for instance, one of the reliability indices receiving special attention by the utilities is the Maximum Continuous Interruption Duration per customer (MCID). This paper describes a chronological Monte Carlo simulation approach to evaluate probability distributions of reliability indices, including the MCID, and the corresponding penalties. In order to get the desired efficiency, modern computational techniques are used for modeling (UML -Unified Modeling Language) as well as for programming (Object- Oriented Programming). Case studies on a simple distribution network and on real Brazilian distribution systems are presented and discussed. © Copyright KTH 2006.

Lack of DNA damage induced by fluoride on mouse lymphoma and human fibroblast cells by single cell gel (comet) assay

Fluoride has widely been used in Dentistry because it is a specific and effective caries prophylactic agent. However, excess fluoride may represent a hazard to human health, especially by causing injury on genetic apparatus. Genotoxicity tests constitute an important part of cancer research for risk assessment of potential carcinogens. In this study, the potential DNA damage associated with exposure to fluoride was assessed by the single cell gel (comet) assay in vitro. Mouse lymphoma and human fibroblast cells were exposed to sodium fluoride (NaF) at final concentration ranging from 7 to 100 μg/mL for 3 h at 37μC. The results pointed out that NaF in all tested concentrations did not contribute to DNA damage as depicted by the mean tail moment and tail intensity for both cellular types assessed. These findings are clinically important because they represent a valuable contribution for evaluation of the potential health risk associated with exposure to agents usually used in dental practice.

Influence of lower cutoff values for 100-g oral glucose tolerance test and glycemic profile for identification of pregnant women at excessive fetal growth risk

Objective: To evaluate data from patients with normal oral glucose tolerance test (OGTT) results and a normal or impaired glycemic profile (GP) to determine whether lower cutoff values for the OGTT and GP (alone or combined) could identify pregnant women at risk for excessive fetal growth. Methods: We classified 701 pregnant women with positive screening for gestational diabetes mellitus (GDM) into 2 categories - (1) normal 100-g OGTT and normal GP and (2) normal 100-g OGTT and impaired GP - to evaluate the influence of lower cutoff points in a 100-g OGTT and GP (alone or in combination) for identification of pregnant women at excessive fetal growth risk. The OGTT is considered impaired if 2 or more values are above the normal range, and the GP is impaired if the fasting glucose level or at least 1 postprandial glucose value is above the normal range. To establish the criteria for the OGTT (for fasting and 1, 2, and 3 hours after an oral glucose load, respectively), we considered the mean (75 mg/dL, 120 mg/dL, 113 mg/dL, and 97 mg/dL), mean plus 1 SD (85 mg/dL, 151 mg/dL, 133 mg/dL, and 118 mg/dL), and mean plus 2 SD (95 mg/dL, 182 mg/dL, 153 mg/dL, and 139 mg/dL); and for the GP, we considered the mean and mean plus 1 SD (78 mg/dL and 92 mg/dL for fasting glucose levels and 90 mg/dL and 130 mg/dL for 1- or 2-hour postprandial glucose levels, respectively). Results: Subsequently, the women were reclassified according to the new cutoff points for both tests (OGTT and GP). Consideration of values, in isolation or combination, yielded 6 new diagnostic criteria. Excessive fetal growth was the response variable for analysis of the new cutoff points. Odds ratios and their respective confidence intervals were estimated, as were the sensitivity and specificity related to diagnosis of excessive fetal growth for each criterion. The new cutoff points for the tests, when used independently rather than collectively, did not help to predict excessive fetal growth in the presence of mild hyperglycemia. Conclusion: Decreasing the cutoff point for the 100-g OGTT (for fasting and 1, 2, and 3 hours) to the mean (75 mg/dL, 120 mg/dL, 113 mg/dL, and 97 mg/dL) in association with the GP (mean or mean plus 1 SD-78 mg/dL and 92 mg/dL for the fasting state and 90 mg/dL and 130 mg/dL for 1- or 2-hour postprandial values-increased the sensitivity and specificity, and both criteria had statistically significant predictive power for detection of excessive fetal growth. © 2008 AACE.