Self-selection and risk selection on the Swiss health insurance market

Abstract This thesis presents three empirical studies in the field of health insurance in Switzerland. First we investigate the link between health insurance coverage and health care expenditures. We use claims data for over 60 000 adult individuals covered by a major Swiss Health Insurance Fund, followed for four years; the data show a strong positive correlation between coverage and expenditures. Two methods are developed and estimated in order to separate selection effects (due to individual choice of coverage) and incentive effects ("ex post moral hazard"). The first method uses the comparison between inpatient and outpatient expenditures to identify both effects and we conclude that both selection and incentive effects are significantly present in our data. The second method is based on a structural model of joint demand of health care and health insurance and makes the most of the change in the marginal cost of health care to identify selection and incentive effects. We conclude that the correlation between insurance coverage and health care expenditures may be decomposed into the two effects: 75% may be attributed to selection, and 25 % to incentive effects. Moreover, we estimate that a decrease in the coinsurance rate from 100% to 10% increases the marginal demand for health care by about 90% and from 100% to 0% by about 150%. Secondly, having shown that selection and incentive effects exist in the Swiss health insurance market, we present the consequence of this result in the context of risk adjustment. We show that if individuals choose their insurance coverage in function of their health status (selection effect), the optimal compensations should be function of the se- lection and incentive effects. Therefore, a risk adjustment mechanism which ignores these effects, as it is the case presently in Switzerland, will miss his main goal to eliminate incentives for sickness funds to select risks. Using a simplified model, we show that the optimal compensations have to take into account the distribution of risks through the insurance plans in case of self-selection in order to avoid incentives to select risks.Then, we apply our propositions to Swiss data and propose a simple econometric procedure to control for self-selection in the estimation of the risk adjustment formula in order to compute the optimal compensations.

Socio-demographic and behavioural determinants of weight gain in the Swiss population.

BackgroundIn Switzerland, socio-demographic and behavioural factors are associated with obesity, but no study ever assessed their impact on weight gain using prospective data.MethodsData from 4,469 participants (53.0% women), aged 35 to 75 years at baseline and followed for 5.5 years. Weight gain was considered as a rate (kg/year) or as gaining ¿5 kg during the study period.ResultsRate of weight gain was lower among participants who were older (mean¿±¿standard deviation: 0.46¿±¿0.92, 0.33¿±¿0.88, 0.21¿±¿0.86 and 0.06¿±¿0.74 kg/year in participants aged [35-45[, [45-55[, [55¿65[and [65+ years, respectively, P<0.001); physically active (0.27¿±¿0.82 vs. 0.35¿±¿0.95 kg/year for sedentary, P¿<¿0.005) or living in a couple (0.29¿±¿0.84 vs. 0.35¿±¿0.96 kg/year for living single, P¿<¿0.05), and higher among current smokers (0.41¿±¿0.97, 0.26¿±¿0.84 and 0.29±0.85 kg/year for current, former and never smokers, respectively, p<0.001). These findings were further confirmed by multivariable analysis. Multivariable logistic regression showed that receiving social help, being a current smoker or obese increased the likelihood of gaining ¿5Kg: Odds ratio (OR) and 95% confidence interval (CI) 1.43 (1.16-1.77); 1.63 (1.35-1.95) and 1.95 (1.57-2.43), respectively, while living in couple or being physically active decreased the risk: 0.73 (0.62-0.86) and 0.72 (0.62-0.83), respectively. No association was found between weight gain and gender, being born in Switzerland or education.ConclusionsIn Switzerland, financial difficulties (indicated by receiving social help) and current smoking were associated with increases in body weight over a 5 years follow-up. Living in couple, being older or physically active were protective against weight gain.

Imported Cattle Report, March 2012

The Imported Cattle report monthly by the Department of Agricultural.

Prevalence of measured and reported multimorbidity in a representative sample of the Swiss population.

BACKGROUND: Little is known on the prevalence of multimorbidity (MM) in the general population. We aimed to assess the prevalence of MM using measured or self-reported data in the Swiss population. METHODS: Cross-sectional, population-based study conducted between 2003 and 2006 in the city of Lausanne, Switzerland, and including 3714 participants (1967 women) aged 35 to 75 years. Clinical evaluation was conducted by thoroughly trained nurses or medical assistants and the psychiatric evaluation by psychologists or psychiatrists. For psychiatric conditions, two definitions were used: either based on the participant's statements, or on psychiatric evaluation. MM was defined as presenting ≥2 morbidities out of a list of 27 (self-reported - definition A, or measured - definition B) or as the Functional Comorbidity Index (FCI) using measured data - definition C. RESULTS: The overall prevalence and (95% confidence interval) of MM was 34.8% (33.3%-36.4%), 56.3% (54.6%-57.9%) and 22.7% (21.4%-24.1%) for definitions A, B and C, respectively. Prevalence of MM was higher in women (40.2%, 61.7% and 27.1% for definitions A, B and C, respectively, vs. 28.7%, 50.1% and 17.9% in men, p < 0.001); Swiss nationals (37.1%, 58.8% and 24.8% for definitions A, B and C, respectively, vs. 31.4%, 52.3% and 19.7% in foreigners, all p < 0.001); elderly (>65 years: 67.0%, 70.0% and 36.7% for definitions A, B and C, respectively, vs. 23.6%, 50.2% and 13.8% for participants <45 years, p < 0.001); participants with lower educational level; former smokers and obese participants. Multivariate analysis confirmed most of these associations: odds ratio (95% Confidence interval) 0.55 (0.47-0.64), 0.61 (0.53-0.71) and 0.51 (0.42-0.61) for men relative to women for definitions A, B and C, respectively; 1.27 (1.09-1.49), 1.29 (1.11-1.49) and 1.41 (1.17-1.71) for Swiss nationals relative to foreigners, for definitions A, B and C, respectively. Conversely, no difference was found for educational level for definitions A and B and abdominally obese participants for all definitions. CONCLUSIONS: Prevalence of MM is high in the Lausanne population, and varies according to the definition or the data collection method.

Kernel-based mapping of orographic rainfall enhancement in the Swiss Alps as detected by weatherradar

In this paper, we develop a data-driven methodology to characterize the likelihood of orographic precipitation enhancement using sequences of weather radar images and a digital elevation model (DEM). Geographical locations with topographic characteristics favorable to enforce repeatable and persistent orographic precipitation such as stationary cells, upslope rainfall enhancement, and repeated convective initiation are detected by analyzing the spatial distribution of a set of precipitation cells extracted from radar imagery. Topographic features such as terrain convexity and gradients computed from the DEM at multiple spatial scales as well as velocity fields estimated from sequences of weather radar images are used as explanatory factors to describe the occurrence of localized precipitation enhancement. The latter is represented as a binary process by defining a threshold on the number of cell occurrences at particular locations. Both two-class and one-class support vector machine classifiers are tested to separate the presumed orographic cells from the nonorographic ones in the space of contributing topographic and flow features. Site-based validation is carried out to estimate realistic generalization skills of the obtained spatial prediction models. Due to the high class separability, the decision function of the classifiers can be interpreted as a likelihood or susceptibility of orographic precipitation enhancement. The developed approach can serve as a basis for refining radar-based quantitative precipitation estimates and short-term forecasts or for generating stochastic precipitation ensembles conditioned on the local topography.

Follow-up care amongst long-term childhood cancer survivors: a report from the Swiss Childhood Cancer Survivor Study.

In the Swiss Childhood Cancer Survivor Study, we aimed to assess the proportion of long-term survivors attending follow-up care, to characterise attendees and to describe the health professionals involved. We sent a questionnaire to 1252 patients, of whom 985 (79%) responded, aged in average 27 years (range 20-49). Overall, 183 (19%) reported regular, 405 (41%) irregular and 394 (40%) no follow-up. For 344, severity of late effects had been classified in a previous medical examination. Only 17% and 32% of survivors with moderate and severe late effects respectively had made regular visits a decade later. Female gender, after a shorter time since diagnosis, had radiotherapy, and having suffered a relapse predicted follow-up. In the past year, 8% had seen a general practitioner only, 10% a paediatric or adult oncologist and 16% other health specialists for a cancer related problem. These findings underline the necessity to implement tailored national follow-up programmes.

Employment risk, unemployment insurance and search strategies: a disaggregated equilibrium approach with application to the Swiss labour market in the 1990-ies

The Organization of the Thesis The remainder of the thesis comprises five chapters and a conclusion. The next chapter formalizes the envisioned theory into a tractable model. Section 2.2 presents a formal description of the model economy: the individual heterogeneity, the individual objective, the UI setting, the population dynamics and the equilibrium. The welfare and efficiency criteria for qualifying various equilibrium outcomes are proposed in section 2.3. The fourth section shows how the model-generated information can be computed. Chapter 3 transposes the model from chapter 2 in conditions that enable its use in the analysis of individual labor market strategies and their implications for the labor market equilibrium. In section 3.2 the Swiss labor market data sets, stylized facts, and the UI system are presented. The third section outlines and motivates the parameterization method. In section 3.4 the model's replication ability is evaluated and some aspects of the parameter choice are discussed. Numerical solution issues can be found in the appendix. Chapter 4 examines the determinants of search-strategic behavior in the model economy and its implications for the labor market aggregates. In section 4.2, the unemployment duration distribution is examined and related to search strategies. Section 4.3 shows how the search- strategic behavior is influenced by the UI eligibility and section 4.4 how it is determined by individual heterogeneity. The composition effects generated by search strategies in labor market aggregates are examined in section 4.5. The last section evaluates the model's replication of empirical unemployment escape frequencies reported in Sheldon [67]. Chapter 5 applies the model economy to examine the effects on the labor market equilibrium of shocks to the labor market risk structure, to the deep underlying labor market structure and to the UI setting. Section 5.2 examines the effects of the labor market risk structure on the labor market equilibrium and the labor market strategic behavior. The effects of alterations in the labor market deep economic structural parameters, i.e. individual preferences and production technology, are shown in Section 5.3. Finally, the UI setting impacts on the labor market are studied in Section 5.4. This section also evaluates the role of the UI authority monitoring and the differences in the Way changes in the replacement rate and the UI benefit duration affect the labor market. In chapter 6 the model economy is applied in counterfactual experiments to assess several aspects of the Swiss labor market movements in the nineties. Section 6.2 examines the two equilibria characterizing the Swiss labor market in the nineties, the " growth" equilibrium with a "moderate" UI regime and the "recession" equilibrium with a more "generous" UI. Section 6.3 evaluates the isolated effects of the structural shocks, while the isolated effects of the UI reforms are analyzed in section 6.4. Particular dimensions of the UI reforms, the duration, replacement rate and the tax rate effects, are studied in section 6.5, while labor market equilibria without benefits are evaluated in section 6.6. In section 6.7 the structural and institutional interactions that may act as unemployment amplifiers are discussed in view of the obtained results. A welfare analysis based on individual welfare in different structural and UI settings is presented in the eighth section. Finally, the results are related to more favorable unemployment trends after 1997. The conclusion evaluates the features embodied in the model economy with respect to the resulting model dynamics to derive lessons from the model design." The thesis ends by proposing guidelines for future improvements of the model and directions for further research.

ORGANIC PHOSPHORUS FRACTIONS IN SOIL FERTILIZED WITH CATTLE MANURE

Inorganic phosphorus (Pi) usually controls the P availability in tropical soils, but the contribution of organic P (Po) should not be neglected, mainly in systems with low P input or management systems that promote organic matter accumulation. The aims of this study were to evaluate the changes in the Po fractions over time in soil fertilized and not fertilized with cattle manure and to correlate Po forms with available P extracted by anion exchange resin. The experiment was carried out under field conditions, in a sandy-clay loam Haplustox. The experimental design was a 2 × 9 randomized complete block factorial design, in which the first factor was manure application (20 t ha-1) or absence, and the second the soil sampling times (3, 7, 14, 21, 28, 49, 70, 91, and 112 days) after manure incorporation. Labile, moderately labile and non-labile Po fractions were determined in the soil material of each sampling. Manure fertilization increased the Po levels in the moderately labile and non-labile fractions and the total organic P, but did not affect the Po fraction proportions in relation to total organic P. On average, 5.1 % of total Po was in the labile, 44.4 % in the moderately labile and 50.5 % in the non-labile fractions. Available P (resin P) was more affected by the manure soluble Pi rather than by the labile Po forms. The labile and non-labile Po fractions varied randomly with no defined trend in relation to the samplings; for this reason, the data did not fit any mathematical model.

Hepatitis B virus infection is associated with impaired immunological recovery during antiretroviral therapy in the Swiss HIV cohort study.

Hepatitis B virus (HBV) infection is a major cause of morbidity and mortality in human immunodeficiency virus (HIV)-infected patients worldwide. It is unclear whether HIV-related outcomes are affected by HBV coinfection. We compared virological suppression and immunological recovery during antiretroviral therapy (ART) of patients of different HBV serological status in the Swiss HIV Cohort Study. CD4 cell recovery during ART was significantly impaired in hepatitis B surface antigen-positive patients and in those with anti-hepatitis B core antigen alone compared with HBV-uninfected patients, despite similar virological efficacy of ART. CD4 increase in patients with resolved HBV infection was similar to that in HBV-uninfected individuals.

John Brown Among the Quakers: And Other Sketches, 1904

The Historical Department of Iowa compiled and published these historical papers pertaining to Iowa and the territory from which Iowa was formed. Included are: John Brown among the Quakers, Mascoutin: a reminiscence of the nation of fire, Black Hawk, Keokuk, and their village, Nauvoo and the prophet, the first meeting with the Dakotahs and the tragedy at Minnewaukon.

Is trauma in Switzerland any different? epidemiology and patterns of injury in major trauma - a 5-year review from a Swiss trauma centre.

Switzerland, the country with the highest health expenditure per capita, is lacking data on trauma care and system planning. Recently, 12 trauma centres were designated to be reassessed through a future national trauma registry by 2015. Lausanne University Hospital launched the first Swiss trauma registry in 2008, which contains the largest database on trauma activity nationwide. METHODS: Prospective analysis of data from consecutively admitted shock room patients from 1 January 2008 to 31 December 2012. Shock room admission is based on physiology and mechanism of injury, assessed by prehospital physicians. Management follows a surgeon-led multidisciplinary approach. Injuries are coded by Association for the Advancement of Automotive Medicine (AAAM) certified coders. RESULTS: Over the 5 years, 1,599 trauma patients were admitted, predominantly males with a median age of 41.4 years and median injury severity score (ISS) of 13. Rate of ISS >15 was 42%. Principal mechanisms of injury were road traffic (40.4%) and falls (34.4%), with 91.5% blunt trauma. Principal patterns were brain (64.4%), chest (59.8%) and extremity/pelvic girdle (52.9%) injuries. Severe (abbreviated injury scale [AIS] score ≥ 3) orthopaedic injuries, defined as extremity and spine injuries together, accounted for 67.1%. Overall, 29.1% underwent immediate intervention, mainly by orthopaedics (27.3%), neurosurgeons (26.3 %) and visceral surgeons (13.9%); 43.8% underwent a surgical intervention within the first 24 hours and 59.1% during their hospitalisation. In-hospital mortality for patients with ISS >15 was 26.2%. CONCLUSION: This is the first 5-year report on trauma in Switzerland. Trauma workload was similar to other European countries. Despite high levels of healthcare, mortality exceeds published rates by >50%. Regardless of the importance of a multidisciplinary approach, trauma remains a surgical disease and needs dedicated surgical resources.

Recommendations for raloxifene use in daily clinical practice in the Swiss setting.

BACKGROUND/AIM: Raloxifene is the first selective estrogen receptor modulator that has been approved for the treatment and prevention of osteoporosis in postmenopausal women in Europe and in the US. Although raloxifene reduces the risk of invasive breast cancer in postmenopausal women with osteoporosis and in postmenopausal women at high risk for invasive breast cancer, it is approved in that indication in the US but not in the EU. The aim was to characterize the clinical profiles of postmenopausal women expected to benefit most from therapy with raloxifene based on published scientific evidence to date. METHODS: Key individual patient characteristics relevant to the prescription of raloxifene in daily practice were defined by a board of Swiss experts in the fields of menopause and metabolic bone diseases and linked to published scientific evidence. Consensus was reached about translating these insights into daily practice. RESULTS: Through estrogen agonistic effects on bone, raloxifene reduces biochemical markers of bone turnover to premenopausal levels, increases bone mineral density (BMD) at the lumbar spine, proximal femur, and total body, and reduces vertebral fracture risk in women with osteopenia or osteoporosis with and without prevalent vertebral fracture. Through estrogen antagonistic effects on breast tissue, raloxifene reduces the risk of invasive estrogen-receptor positive breast cancer in postmenopausal women with osteoporosis and in postmenopausal women at high risk for invasive breast cancer. Finally, raloxifene increases the incidence of hot flushes, the risk of venous thromboembolic events, and the risk of fatal stroke in postmenopausal women at increased risk for coronary heart disease. Postmenopausal women in whom the use of raloxifene is considered can be categorized in a 2 × 2 matrix reflecting their bone status (osteopenic or osteoporotic based on their BMD T-score by dual energy X-ray absorptiometry) and their breast cancer risk (low or high based on the modified Gail model). Women at high risk of breast cancer should be considered for treatment with raloxifene. CONCLUSION: Postmenopausal women between 50 and 70 years of age without climacteric symptoms with either osteopenia or osteoporosis should be evaluated with regard to their breast cancer risk and considered for treatment with raloxifene within the framework of its contraindications and precautions.