The top 100 questions of importance to the future of global agriculture

Despite a significant growth in food production over the past half-century, one of the most important challenges facing society today is how to feed an expected population of some nine billion by the middle of the 20th century. To meet the expected demand for food without significant increases in prices, it has been estimated that we need to produce 70-100 per cent more food, in light of the growing impacts of climate change, concerns over energy security, regional dietary shifts and the Millennium Development target of halving world poverty and hunger by 2015. The goal for the agricultural sector is no longer simply to maximize productivity, but to optimize across a far more complex landscape of production, rural development, environmental, social justice and food consumption outcomes. However, there remain significant challenges to developing national and international policies that support the wide emergence of more sustainable forms of land use and efficient agricultural production. The lack of information flow between scientists, practitioners and policy makers is known to exacerbate the difficulties, despite increased emphasis upon evidence-based policy. In this paper, we seek to improve dialogue and understanding between agricultural research and policy by identifying the 100 most important questions for global agriculture. These have been compiled using a horizon-scanning approach with leading experts and representatives of major agricultural organizations worldwide. The aim is to use sound scientific evidence to inform decision making and guide policy makers in the future direction of agricultural research priorities and policy support. If addressed, we anticipate that these questions will have a significant impact on global agricultural practices worldwide, while improving the synergy between agricultural policy, practice and research. This research forms part of the UK Government's Foresight Global Food and Farming Futures project.

Gas-liquid nucleation at large metastability: unusual features and a new formalism

Nucleation at large metastability is still largely an unsolved problem, even though it is a problem of tremendous current interest, with wide-ranging practical value, from atmospheric research to materials science. It is now well accepted that the classical nucleation theory (CNT) fails to provide a qualitative picture and gives incorrect quantitative values for such quantities as activation-free energy barrier and supersaturation dependence of nucleation rate, especially at large metastability. In this paper, we present an alternative formalism to treat nucleation at large supersaturation by introducing an extended set of order parameters in terms of the kth largest liquid-like clusters, where k = 1 is the largest cluster in the system, k = 2 is the second largest cluster and so on. At low supersaturation, the size of the largest liquid-like cluster acts as a suitable order parameter. At large supersaturation, the free energy barrier for the largest liquid-like cluster disappears. We identify this supersaturation as the one at the onset of kinetic spinodal. The kinetic spinodal is system-size-dependent. Beyond kinetic spinodal many clusters grow simultaneously and competitively and hence the nucleation and growth become collective. In order to describe collective growth, we need to consider the full set of order parameters. We derive an analytic expression for the free energy of formation of the kth largest cluster. The expression predicts that, at large metastability (beyond kinetic spinodal), the barrier of growth for several largest liquid-like clusters disappears, and all these clusters grow simultaneously. The approach to the critical size occurs by barrierless diffusion in the cluster size space. The expression for the rate of barrier crossing predicts weaker supersaturation dependence than what is predicted by CNT at large metastability. Such a crossover behavior has indeed been observed in recent experiments (but eluded an explanation till now). In order to understand the large numerical discrepancy between simulation predictions and experimental results, we carried out a study of the dependence on the range of intermolecular interactions of both the surface tension of an equilibrium planar gas-liquid interface and the free energy barrier of nucleation. Both are found to depend significantly on the range of interaction for the Lennard-Jones potential, both in two and three dimensions. The value of surface tension and also the free energy difference between the gas and the liquid phase increase significantly and converge only when the range of interaction is extended beyond 6-7 molecular diameters. We find, with the full range of interaction potential, that the surface tension shows only a weak dependence on supersaturation, so the reason for the breakdown of CNT (with simulated values of surface tension and free energy gap) cannot be attributed to the supersaturation dependence of surface tension. This remains an unsettled issue at present because of the use of the value of surface tension obtained at coexistence.

Diffusion Anomaly in Silicalite and VPI-5 from Molecular Dynamics Simulations

Molecular dynamics (MD) simulations on rigid and flexible framework models of silicalite and a rigid framework model of the aluminophosphate VPI-5 for different sorbate diameters are reported. The sorbate-host interactions are modeled in terms of simple atom-atom Lennard-Jones interactions. The results suggest that the diffusion coefficient exhibits an anomaly as gamma approaches unity. The MD results confirm the existence of a linear regime for sorbate diameters significantly smaller than the channel diameter and an anomalous regime observed for sorbate diameters comparable to the channel diameter. The power spectra obtained by Fourier transformation of the velocity autocorrelation function indicate that there is an increase in the intensity of the low-frequency component for the velocity component parallel to the direction of motion for the sorbate diameter in the anomalous regime. The present results suggest that the diffusion anomaly is observed irrespective of (1) the geometry and topology of the pore structure and (2) the nature of the host material. The results are compared with the work of Derouane and co-workers, who have suggested the existence of ''floating molecules'' on the basis of earlier theoretical and computational approaches.

The sputtering temperature of a cooling cylindrical rod without and with an insulated core in a two-fluid medium

Utilising Jones' method associated with the Wiener-Hopf technique, explicit solutions are obtained for the temperature distributions on the surface of a cylindrical rod without an insulated core as well as that inside a cylindrical rod with an insulated inner core when the rod, in either of the two cases, is allowed to enter, with a uniform speed, into two different layers of fluid with different cooling abilities. Simple expressions are derived for the values of the sputtering temperatures of the rod at the points of entry into the respective layers, assuming the upper layer of the fluid to be of finite depth and the lower of infinite extent. Both the problems are solved through a three-part Wiener-Hopf problem of special type and the numerical results under certain special circumstances are obtained and presented in tabular forms.

Structure-potential relationship and nature of disorder in liquids and glassy solids

A method based on the minimal-spanning tree is extended to a collection of points in three dimensions. Two parameters, the average edge length and its standard deviation characterize the disorder. The structural phase diagram for a monatomic system of particles and the characteristic values for the uniform random distribution of points have been obtained. The method is applied to hard spheres and Lennard-Jones systems. These systems occupy distinct regions in the structural phase diagram. The structure of the Lennard-Jones system approaches that of the defective close-packed arrangements at low temperatures whereas in the liquid regime, it deviates from the close-packed configuration.

A formal total synthesis of (+/-)-enterolactone

A radical cyclization based methodology has been applied for the formal total synthesis of (+/-)-enterolactone (1), the first lignan isolated from human source. Bromoacetalization reaction of the cinnamyl alcohols 7 and 13 using ethyl vinyl ether and NBS, generated the bromoacetals 8 and 15. The 5-exo-trig radical cyclization reaction of the bromoacetals 8 and 15 with in situ generated catalytic tri-a-butyltin hydride and AIBN furnished a 3 : 2 diastereomeric mixture of the cyclic acetals 9 and 16. Sonochemically accelerated Jones oxidation of the cyclic acetals 9 and 16 yielded the gamma-butyrolactones 10 and 12 completing the formal total synthesis of (+/-)-enterolactone. Alternatively radical cyclization of the bromoacetate 17 furnished a 1 : 2 mixture of the lactone 10 and the reduced product 18.

Temperature dependence of the levitation effect - Implications for separation of multicomponent mixtures

Sufficiently long molecular dynamics simulations have been carried out on spherical monatomic sorbates in NaY zeolite, interacting via simple Lennard-Jones potentials, to investigate the dependence of the levitation effect on the temperature. Simulations carried out in the range 100-300 K suggest that the anomalous peak in the diffusion coefficient (observed when the levitation parameter, gamma, is near unity) decreases in intensity with increase in temperature. The rate of cage-to-cage migrations also exhibits a similar trend. The activation energy obtained from Arrhenius plots is found to exhibit a minimum when the diffusion coefficient is a maximum, corresponding to the gamma approximate to 1 sorbate diameter. In the linear or normal regime, the activation energy increases with increase in sorbate diameter until it shows a sharp decrease in the anomalous regime. Locations and energies of the adsorption sites and their dependence on the sorbate size gives interesting insight into the nature of the underlying potential-energy surface and further explain the observed trend in the activation energy with sorbate size. Cage residence times, tau(c), show little or no change with temperature for the sorbate with diameter corresponding to gamma approximate to 1, whereas there is a significant decrease in tau(c) with increase in temperature for sorbates in the linear regime. The implications of the present study for the separation of mixtures of sorbates are discussed.

Isomerization dynamics in viscous liquids: Microscopic investigation of the coupling and decoupling of the rate to and from solvent viscosity and dependence on the intermolecular potential

A detailed investigation of viscosity dependence of the isomerization rate is carried out for continuous potentials by using a fully microscopic, self-consistent mode-coupling theory calculation of both the friction on the reactant and the viscosity of the medium. In this calculation we avoid approximating the short time response by the Enskog limit, which overestimates the friction at high frequencies. The isomerization rate is obtained by using the Grote-Hynes formula. The viscosity dependence of the rate has been investigated for a large number of thermodynamic state points. Since the activated barrier crossing dynamics probes the high-frequency frictional response of the liquid, the barrier crossing rate is found to be sensitive to the nature of the reactant-solvent interaction potential. When the solute-solvent interaction is modeled by a 6-12 Lennard-Jones potential, we find that over a large variation of viscosity (eta), the rate (k) can indeed be fitted very well to a fractional viscosity dependence: (k similar to eta(-alpha)), with the exponent alpha in the range 1 greater than or equal to alpha >0. The calculated values of the exponent appear to be in very good agreement with many experimental results. In particular, the theory, for the first time, explains the experimentally observed high value of alpha even at the barrier frequency, omega(b). similar or equal to 9 X 10(12) s(-1) for the isomerization reaction of 2-(2'-propenyl)anthracene in liquid eta-alkanes. The present study can also explain the reason for the very low value of vb observed in another study for the isomerization reaction of trans-stilbene in liquid n-alkanes. For omega(b) greater than or equal to 2.0 X 10(13) s(-1), we obtain alpha similar or equal to 0, which implies that the barrier crossing rate becomes identical to the transition-state theory predictions. A careful analysis of isomerization reaction dynamics involving large amplitude motion suggests that the barrier crossing dynamics itself may become irrelevant in highly viscous liquids and the rate might again be coupled directly to the viscosity. This crossover is predicted to be strongly temperature dependent and could be studied by changing the solvent viscosity by the application of pressure. (C) 1999 American Institute of Physics. [S0021-9606(9950514-X].

Energy transfer efficiency distributions in polymers in solution during folding and unfolding

Distribution of fluorescence resonance energy transfer (FRET) efficiency between the two ends of a Lennard-Jones polymer chain both at equilibrium and during folding and unfolding has been calculated, for the first time, by Brownian dynamics simulations. The distribution of FRET efficiency becomes bimodal during folding of the extended state subsequent to a temperature quench, with the width of the distribution for the extended state broader than that for the folded state. The reverse process of unfolding subsequent to a upward temperature jump shows different characteristics. The distributions show significant viscosity dependence which can be tested against experiments.

Theory of polymer breaking under tension

We consider the breaking of a polymer molecule which is fixed at one end and is acted upon by a force at the other. The polymer is assumed to be a linear chain joined together by bonds which satisfy the Morse potential. The applied force is found to modify the Morse potential so that the minimum becomes metastable. Breaking is just the decay of this metastable bond, by causing it to go over the barrier. Increasing the force causes the potential to become more and more distorted and eventually leads to the disappearance of the barrier. The limiting force at which the barrier disappears is D(e)a/2,D-e with a the parameters characterizing the Morse potential. The rate of breaking is first calculated using multidimensional quantum transition state theory. We use the harmonic approximation to account for vibrations of all the units. It includes tunneling contributions to the rate, but is valid only above a certain critical temperature. It is possible to get an analytical expression for the rate of breaking. We have calculated the rate of breaking for a model, which mimics polyethylene. First we calculate the rate of breaking of a single bond, without worrying about the other bonds. Inclusion of other bonds under the harmonic approximation is found to lower this rate by at the most one order of magnitude. Quantum effects are found to increase the rate of breaking and are significant only at temperatures less than 150 K. At 300 K, the calculations predict a bond in polyethylene to have a lifetime of only seconds at a force which is only half the limiting force. Calculations were also done using the Lennard-Jones potential. The results for Lennard-Jones and Morse potentials were rather different, due to the different long-range behaviors of the two potentials. A calculation including friction was carried out, at the classical level, by assuming that each atom of the chain is coupled to its own collection of harmonic oscillators. Comparison of the results with the simulations of Oliveira and Taylor [J. Chem. Phys. 101, 10 118 (1994)] showed the rate to be two to three orders of magnitude higher. As a possible explanation of discrepancy, we consider the translational motion of the ends of the broken chains. Using a continuum approximation for the chain, we find that in the absence of friction, the rate of the process can be limited by the rate at which the two broken ends separate from one another and the lowering of the rate is at the most a factor of 2, for the parameters used in the simulation (for polyethylene). In the presence of friction, we find that the rate can be lowered by one to two orders of magnitude, making our results to be in reasonable agreement with the simulations.

Structure of tandem and its implication for bifunctional intercalation into dna

Quinoxaline antibiotics (Fig. 1a, b) form a useful group of compounds for the study of drug–nucleic acid interactions1,2. They consist of a cross-bridged cyclic octadepsipeptide, variously modified, bearing two quinoxaline chromophores. These antibiotics intercalate bifunctionally into DNA2,3 probably via the narrow groove, forming a complex in which, most probably, two base pairs are sandwiched between the chromophores4,5. Depending on the nature of their sulphur-containing cross-bridge and modifications to their amino acid side chains, they display characteristic patterns of nucleotide sequence selectivity when binding to DNAs of different base composition and to synthetic polydeoxynucleotides4,6,7. This specificity has been tentatively ascribed to specific hydrogen-bonding interactions between functional groups in the DNA and complementary moieties on the peptide ring2,4,5. Variations in selectivity have been attributed both to changes in the conformation of the peptide backbone6 and no modifications of the cross-bridge7. These suggestions were made, however, in the absence of firm knowledge about the three-dimensional structure and conformation of the antibiotic molecules. We now report the X-ray structure analysis of the synthetic analogue of the antibiotic triostin A, TANDEM (des-N-tetramethyl triostin A) (Fig. 1c), which binds preferentially to alternating adenine-thymine sequences7. The X-ray structure provides a starting point for exploring the origin of this specificity and suggests possible models for the binding of other members of the quinoxaline series.

Simulation-driven design of helmets for head impact protection using an injury-based criterion

The current paper suggests a new procedure for designing helmets for head impact protection for users such as motorcycle riders. According to the approach followed here, a helmet is mounted on a featureless Hybrid 3 headform that is used in assessing vehicles for compliance to the FMVSS 201 regulation in the USA for upper interior head impact safety. The requirement adopted in the latter standard, i.e. not exceeding a threshold HIC(d) limit of 1000, is applied in the present study as a likely criterion for adjudging the efficacy of helmets. An impact velocity of 6 m/s (13.5 mph) for the helmet-headform system striking a rigid target can probably be acceptable for ascertaining a helmet's effectiveness as a countermeasure for minimizing the risk of severe head injury. The proposed procedure is demonstrated with the help of a validated LS-DYNA model of a featureless Hybrid 3 headform in conjunction with a helmet model comprising an outer polypropylene shell to the inner surface of which is bonded a protective polyurethane foam padding of a given thickness. Based on simulation results of impact on a rigid surface, it appears that a minimum foam padding thickness of 40 mm is necessary for obtaining an acceptable value of HIC(d).

Sensitivity of nucleation phenomena on range of interaction potential

Theoretical and computational investigations of nucleation have been plagued by the sensitivity of the phase diagram to the range of the interaction potential. As the surface tension depends strongly on the range of interaction potential and as the classical nucleation theory (CNT) predicts the free energy barrier to be directly proportional to the cube of the surface tension, one expects a strong sensitivity of nucleation barrier to the range of the potential; however, CNT leaves many aspects unexplored. We find for gas-liquid nucleation in Lennard-Jones system that on increasing the range of interaction the kinetic spinodal (KS) (where the mechanism of nucleation changes from activated to barrierless) shifts deeper into the metastable region. Therefore the system remains metastable for larger value of supersaturation and this allows one to explore the high metastable region without encountering the KS. On increasing the range of interaction, both the critical cluster size and pre-critical minima in the free energy surface of kth largest cluster, at respective kinetic spinodals, shift towards smaller cluster size. In order to separate surface tension contribution to the increase in the barrier from other non-trivial factors, we introduce a new scaling form for surface tension and use it to capture both the temperature and the interaction range dependence of surface tension. Surprisingly, we find only a weak non-trivial contribution from other factors to the free energy barrier of nucleation. (C) 2012 American Institute of Physics. [http://dx.doi.org/10.1063/1.3685835]

Glassy dynamics in a confined monatomic fluid

Molecular dynamic simulations of a strongly inhomogeneous system reveals that a single-component soft-sphere fluid can behave as a fragile glass former due to confinement. The self-intermediate scattering function, F-s(k,t), of a Lennard-Jones fluid confined in slit-shaped pores, which can accomodate two to four fluid layers, exhibits a two-step relaxation at moderate temperatures. The mean-squared displacement data are found to follow time-temperature superposition and both the self-diffusivity and late a relaxation times exhibit power-law divergences as the fluid is cooled. The system possesses a crossover temperature and follows the scalings of mode coupling theory for the glass transition. The temperature dependence of the self-diffusivity can be expressed using the Vogel-Fulcher-Tammann equation, and estimates of the fragility index of the system indicates a fragile glass former. At lower temperatures, signatures of additional relaxation processes are observed in the various dynamical quantities with a three-step relaxation observed in the F-s(k,t).

Averting biodiversity collapse in tropical forest protected areas

The rapid disruption of tropical forests probably imperils global biodiversity more than any other contemporary phenomenon(1-3). With deforestation advancing quickly, protected areas are increasingly becoming final refuges for threatened species and natural ecosystem processes. However, many protected areas in the tropics are themselves vulnerable to human encroachment and other environmental stresses(4-9). As pressures mount, it is vital to know whether existing reserves can sustain their biodiversity. A critical constraint in addressing this question has been that data describing a broad array of biodiversity groups have been unavailable for a sufficiently large and representative sample of reserves. Here we present a uniquely comprehensive data set on changes over the past 20 to 30 years in 31 functional groups of species and 21 potential drivers of environmental change, for 60 protected areas stratified across the world's major tropical regions. Our analysis reveals great variation in reserve `health': about half of all reserves have been effective or performed passably, but the rest are experiencing an erosion of biodiversity that is often alarmingly widespread taxonomically and functionally. Habitat disruption, hunting and forest-product exploitation were the strongest predictors of declining reserve health. Crucially, environmental changes immediately outside reserves seemed nearly as important as those inside in determining their ecological fate, with changes inside reserves strongly mirroring those occurring around them. These findings suggest that tropical protected areas are often intimately linked ecologically to their surrounding habitats, and that a failure to stem broad-scale loss and degradation of such habitats could sharply increase the likelihood of serious biodiversity declines.