CBUC 1995-2004 : deu anys d'activitat i de presència pública

Selecció d'articles, ponències i presentacions il·lustratives dels deu anys d'història del Consorci i dels seus projectes i activitats.

Desenvolupament de mesures per comparar transculturalment xarxes personals (USA i Estats Units)

Estudi elaborat a partir d’una estada a la Universitat de Florida durant Abril i Maig de 2006. “Application to Immigrant Populations in South Florida and Northeastern Spain" ha permès recollir les xarxes personals d’immigrants en els dos països mitjançant un qüestionari implementat amb un software desenvolupat ex professo per recollir i presentar visualment les dades. Es van revisar i assemblar les entrevistes i qüestionaris realitzats a Catalunya i a Estats Units (Miami i Nova York, especialment). Fins al moment s’han revisat i analitzat uns 450 casos. Un cop depurada i analitzada la informació obtinguda s’ha pogut disposar per primer cop de mesures globals pels diferents col•lectius estudiats. L'objectiu global del projecte és entendre les implicacions que les estructures de les xarxes personals tenen en relació a un conjunt de conductes (de salut, d'ús de la llengua, etx) i les autoconcepcions. En aquest sentit era necessari desenvolupar un seguit de mesures que permetessin comparar i documentar la variació de les estructures de les xarxes personals a diferents cultures, nivells socioeconòmics, gènere, religió, etc. i incorporar-les com a variables independents als models explicatius.En aquest moments s’està desenvolupant un índex basat en variables estructurals (número de components de la xarxa, densitat, grau d’intermediació, etc.) i variables de composició (proporció de persones diferents del país d’origen, entre d'altres). La idea és disposar d’un índex d’heterogeneïtat de la xarxa social comparable entre els diferents col•lectius. Malgrat que el treball continua, la principal conclusió a la que s’ha arribat és que al menys a Espanya a mida que passa el temps augmenta el nivell d’heterogeneïtat de les xarxes personals. És a dir, que desprès d’un ràpid procés de canvi i una fase de transnacionalitat la tendència és a reduir aquest nivell (pels costos socials i econòmics que comporta) depenent, naturalment, de factors com l’origen temporal (primera onada o successives), el tipus de col•lectiu i el sexe.

Cosa: arqueologia de un enclave comercial mediterráneo. Campaña de 2006

En el marco del proyecto “La ciutat romana de Cosa: arqueologia d’un enclau comercial mediterrani” , autorizado y apoyado por la Soprintendenza Archeologica por la Toscana, entre los dias 4 y 22 de septiembre de 2006 se ha realizado la segunda campaña de intervenciones arqueológicas en la ciudad romana de Cosa (Ansedonia, prov. Grosseto, Itàlia), colonia latina fundada en el 273 aC a unos 120 km. al norte de Roma. De acuerdo a los resultados obtenidos en la campanya del 2005 (localización/verificación de los límites precisos de la ínsula O-P/4-5 mediante la aplicación de técnicas de prospección geofísica completadas con la limpieza, registro y documentación arqueológica de las estructuras localizadas ) los trabajos del 2006 se han orientado hacia la identificación de la organización interna de la dicha ínsula tomando como referente el criptopórtico situado en el extremo N.E., el cual parece constituir el límite de una estructura singular (privada o pública ) estratégicamente ubicada en relación al fórum i a la Via Sacra. El trabajo de campo ha consistido en un intenso decapage con la finalidad de delimitar unidades de habitación complejas funcionalmente definidas y así la articulación existente entre ellas; en este sentido se ha podido documentar evidencias del espacio porticado superpuesto al criptopórtico así como, paralelamente a la calle 5 y en dirección a la Via Sacra, parte de habitaciones algunas de las cuales conservaban restos del pavimiento original, en un caso de mosaico. Paralelamente, se ha realizado el análisis en laboratorio de los materiales recuperados los cuales, aún procediendo de nivel superficial, empiezan a proporcionar datos sobre los diferentes momentos de ocupación de la zona, básicamente tardorepublicanos y augustales.

Three essays on the psychology of investment and financial markets

Préface My thesis consists of three essays where I consider equilibrium asset prices and investment strategies when the market is likely to experience crashes and possibly sharp windfalls. Although each part is written as an independent and self contained article, the papers share a common behavioral approach in representing investors preferences regarding to extremal returns. Investors utility is defined over their relative performance rather than over their final wealth position, a method first proposed by Markowitz (1952b) and by Kahneman and Tversky (1979), that I extend to incorporate preferences over extremal outcomes. With the failure of the traditional expected utility models in reproducing the observed stylized features of financial markets, the Prospect theory of Kahneman and Tversky (1979) offered the first significant alternative to the expected utility paradigm by considering that people focus on gains and losses rather than on final positions. Under this setting, Barberis, Huang, and Santos (2000) and McQueen and Vorkink (2004) were able to build a representative agent optimization model which solution reproduced some of the observed risk premium and excess volatility. The research in behavioral finance is relatively new and its potential still to explore. The three essays composing my thesis propose to use and extend this setting to study investors behavior and investment strategies in a market where crashes and sharp windfalls are likely to occur. In the first paper, the preferences of a representative agent, relative to time varying positive and negative extremal thresholds are modelled and estimated. A new utility function that conciliates between expected utility maximization and tail-related performance measures is proposed. The model estimation shows that the representative agent preferences reveals a significant level of crash aversion and lottery-pursuit. Assuming a single risky asset economy the proposed specification is able to reproduce some of the distributional features exhibited by financial return series. The second part proposes and illustrates a preference-based asset allocation model taking into account investors crash aversion. Using the skewed t distribution, optimal allocations are characterized as a resulting tradeoff between the distribution four moments. The specification highlights the preference for odd moments and the aversion for even moments. Qualitatively, optimal portfolios are analyzed in terms of firm characteristics and in a setting that reflects real-time asset allocation, a systematic over-performance is obtained compared to the aggregate stock market. Finally, in my third article, dynamic option-based investment strategies are derived and illustrated for investors presenting downside loss aversion. The problem is solved in closed form when the stock market exhibits stochastic volatility and jumps. The specification of downside loss averse utility functions allows corresponding terminal wealth profiles to be expressed as options on the stochastic discount factor contingent on the loss aversion level. Therefore dynamic strategies reduce to the replicating portfolio using exchange traded and well selected options, and the risky stock.

La narratividad en los "Telenotícies" de TV3

La narració és l’única estructura a través de la qual el periodista pot dialogar amb la societat. Segons alguns autors, la narrativitat es una estructura transcendental de l’experiència i l’acció humana. Això vol dir que no es possible actuar o fer experiència sense atendre aquesta dimensió de l’home. En periodisme això té algunes implicacions. Només respectant aquesta estructura en el missatge, el receptor podrà descobrir el significat que aquest aporta a la seva vida. A través de la visió del filòsof Charles Taylor i la seva reflexió sobre la modernitat esbrinarem en quins moments els noticiaris es deixen emportar pel pitjor de la cultura moderna, en quins aspectes s’equivoquen els periodistes i de quina manera això perjudica a la societat en general.

Quantitative and qualitative research on brief systemic therapies carried out within the framework of an ambulatory consultation for couples and families

Abstract: This article presents both a brief systemic intervention method (IBS) consisting in 6 sessions developed in an ambulatory service for couples and families, and two research projects done in collaboration with the Institute for Psychotherapy of the University of Lausanne. The first project is quantitative and it aims at evaluating the effectiveness of ISB. One of its main feature is that outcomes are assessed at different levels of individual and family functioning: 1) symptoms and individual functioning; 2) quality of marital relationship; 3) parental and co-parental relationships; 4) familial relationships. The second project is a qualitative case study about a marital therapy which identifies and analyses significant moments of the therapeutic process from the patients' perspective. Methodology was largely inspired by Daniel Stem's work about "moments of meeting" in psychotherapy. Results show that patients' theories about relationship and change are important elements that deepen our understanding of the change process in couple and family therapy. The interest of associating clinicians and researchers for the development and validation of a new clinical model is discussed.

Economic effects of road accessibility in the Pyrenees: user perspective

At present, Spain faces one of the key moments in planning the future design of the infrastructure network. As a consequence of the critical role played by haulage in intra-European trade, the most important investments are those that guarantee that road haulage traffic can move freely at the borders. That is why it is necessary to make serious evaluations of the economic and social profitability of these investments. Normally the most significant social benefit of investment projects in transport infrastructure is time saving, which in turn changes traffic intensity. In this article we analyse the changes in the user excess caused by public investment in transport infrastructure planned by the Spanish government and which will be located on the border between Spain and France. In particular, we study the increase in network user surplus for HGV traffic in the Spanish and French border zones in the Pyrenees.

Do institutions matter for economic fluctuations? Weak property rights in a business cycle model for Mexico

This paper shows that introducing weak property rights in the standard real business cycle (RBC) model can help to explain economic fluctuations. This is motivated by the empirical observation that changes in institutions in emerging markets are related to the evolution of the main macroeconomic variables. In particular, in Mexico, the movements in productivity in the data are associated with changes in institutions, so that we can explain productivity shocks to a large extent as shocks to the quality of institutions. We find that the model with shocks to the degree of protection of property rights only - without technology shocks - can match the second moments in the data for Mexico well. In particular, the fit is better than that of the standard neoclassical model with full protection of property rights regarding the auto-correlations and cross-correlations in the data, especially those related to labor. Viewing productivity shocks as shocks to institutions is also consistent with the stylized fact of falling productivity and non-decreasing labor hours in Mexico over 1980-1994, which is a feature that the neoclassical model cannot match.

Financial shocks and the US business cycle

Employing the financial accelerator (FA) model of Bernanke, Gertler and Gilchrist (1999) enhanced to include a shock to the FA mechanism, we construct and study shocks to the efficiency of the financial sector in post-war US business cycles. We find that financial shocks are very tightly linked with the onset of recessions, more so than TFP or monetary shocks. The financial shock invariably remains contractionary for sometime after recessions have ended. The shock accounts for a large part of the variance of GDP and is strongly negatively correlated with the external finance premium. Second-moments comparisons across variants of the model with and without a (stochastic) FA mechanism suggests the stochastic FA model helps us understand the data.

La competitividad del sector hotelero

El present estudi analitza la competitivitat del sector hoteler entre les ciutats de Barcelona i Madrid. Consisteix en un anàlisi sobre l’oferta i demanda hotelera de les dos ciutats. També s’estudia el mercat inversor hoteler, doncs en aquests moments de crisis, es molt important tenir-ho en compte. A fi de poder analitzar les diferents alternatives estratègiques, s'ha definit un producte-hotel de negocis per poder estimar uns preus i una inversió, ja que aquestes variables afecten la rendibilitat del negoci. Finalment s'analitza les diferents fórmules d'explotació hotelera, i com aquestes afecten al compte d'explotació, i conseqüentment a la rendibilitat del projecte.

Structural Interactions in Spatial Panels

Until recently, much effort has been devoted to the estimation of panel data regression models without adequate attention being paid to the drivers of diffusion and interaction across cross section and spatial units. We discuss some new methodologies in this emerging area and demonstrate their use in measurement and inferences on cross section and spatial interactions. Specifically, we highlight the important distinction between spatial dependence driven by unobserved common factors and those based on a spatial weights matrix. We argue that, purely factor driven models of spatial dependence may be somewhat inadequate because of their connection with the exchangeability assumption. Limitations and potential enhancements of the existing methods are discussed, and several directions for new research are highlighted.

Understanding Interactions in Social Networks and Committees

While much of the literature on cross section dependence has focused mainly on estimation of the regression coefficients in the underlying model, estimation and inferences on the magnitude and strength of spill-overs and interactions has been largely ignored. At the same time, such inferences are important in many applications, not least because they have structural interpretations and provide useful interpretation and structural explanation for the strength of any interactions. In this paper we propose GMM methods designed to uncover underlying (hidden) interactions in social networks and committees. Special attention is paid to the interval censored regression model. Our methods are applied to a study of committee decision making within the Bank of England’s monetary policy committee.

PKS2: A link between phototropin signalling and auxin transport - a study on how plants sense and respond to light.

The blue light photoreceptors phototropins (phot1 and phot2 in Arabidopsis thaliana (L.)) carry out various light responses of great adaptive value that optimize plant growth. These processes include phototropism (the bending of an organ induced by unequal light distribution), chloroplast movements, stomatal opening, leaf flattening and solar tracking. The biochemical pathways controlling these important blue light responses are just starting to be elucidated. The PHYTOCHROME KINASE SUBSTRATE (PKS1-4) proteins - the subject of this research - have recently been identified as novel phototropism signalling components. PKS1 (the founding member of this family) interacts in a same complex in vivo with phot1 and the important phot1 signalling element NON-PHOTOTROPIC HYPOCOTYL 3 (NPH3). This suggested that the PKS may act as early components of phot signalling. This work further investigates the role of this protein family during phototropin signalling Genetic experiments clearly showed that the PKS do not control chloroplast movements or stomatal opening. However, PKS2 plays a critical role with NPH3 during leaf flattening and solar tracking. Epistasis data indicated that both proteins act in phot1 and phot2 pathways, which is consistent with their in vivo interaction with both phototropins. Because phototropism, leaf flattening and solar tracking are developmental processes regulated by the hormone auxin, the role of PKS2 and NPH3 during auxin homeostasis was also investigated. Interestingly, PKS2 loss-of-function restores leaf flattening in the auxin transporter mutant aux1. Moreover, PKS2 and NPH3 are found in a same complex with AUX1 in vivo. Taken together, these results suggest that PKS2 may act with NPH3 as a connecting point between phot signalling and auxin transport. Further experiments were performed to explore the molecular mode of action of PKS2 and NPH3 in this process. The significance of these results is discussed.

Ordering Policy Rules with an Unconditional Welfare Measure

The unconditional expectation of social welfare is often used to assess alternative macroeconomic policy rules in applied quantitative research. It is shown that it is generally possible to derive a linear - quadratic problem that approximates the exact non-linear problem where the unconditional expectation of the objective is maximised and the steady-state is distorted. Thus, the measure of pol icy performance is a linear combinat ion of second moments of economic variables which is relatively easy to compute numerically, and can be used to rank alternative policy rules. The approach is applied to a simple Calvo-type model under various monetary policy rules.

Alliance evolutions over the course of short-term dynamic psychotherapy: A case study

Background: Alliance evolutions, i.e. ruptures and resolutions over the course of psychotherapy, have been shown to be important descriptive features in different forms of psychotherapy, and in particular in psychodynamic psychotherapy. This case study of a client presenting elements of adjustment disorder undergoing short-term dynamic psychotherapy is drawn from a systematic naturalistic study and aims at illustrating, on a session-by-session-level, the processes of alliance ruptures and resolutions, by comparing both the client's and the therapist's perspectives. Method: Two episodes of alliance evolution were more fully studied, in relation to the evolution of transference, as well as the client's defensive functioning and core conflictual theme. These concepts were measured by means of valid, reliable observer-rater methods, based on session transcripts: the Defense Mechanisms Rating Scales (DMRS) for defensive functioning and the Core Conflictual Relationship Theme (CCRT) for the conflicts. Alliance was measured after each session using the Helping Alliance questionnaire (HAq-II). Results: The results indicated that these episodes of alliance rupture and resolutions may be understood as key moments of the whole therapeutic process reflecting the client's main relationship stakes. Illustrations are provided based on the client's in-session processes and related to the alliance development over the course of the entire therapy.