967 resultados para Bayesian hypothesis testing
Resumo:
The amount of asphalt cement in asphaltic concrete has a definite effect on its durability under adverse conditions. The expansion of the transportation system to more and heavier loads has also made the percentage of asphalt cement in a mix more critical. The laboratory mixer does not duplicate the mixing effect of the large pugmills; therefore, it is impossible to be completely sure of the asphalt cement needed for each mix. This percentage quite often must be varied in the field. With a central testing laboratory and the high production of mixing plants today, a large amount of asphaltic concrete is produced before a sample can be tested to determine if the asphalt content is correct. If the asphalt content lowers the durability or stability of a mix, more maintenance will be required in the future. The purpose of this project is to determine the value of a mobile laboratory in the field, the feasibility of providing adequate, early testing in the field, and correlation with the central laboratory. The major purpose was to determine as soon as possible the best percentage of asphalt.
Resumo:
Due to an equipment malfunction, too much sand was used in the concrete on the bridge floor placed on August 9, 1994, in Washington County, Project No. BRF-22-2(36)38-92. Freeze-thaw durability testing of cores taken from the concrete in question and the other two concretes not in question was performed. The experimental results indicate that the concrete in question is considered at least as durable and resistant to freeze-thaw damage as the concretes which are not in question. The concrete in question can be expected to function properly for the regular service life of the bridge.
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Whole-grain foods are touted for multiple health benefits, including enhancing insulin sensitivity and reducing type 2 diabetes risk. Recent genome-wide association studies (GWAS) have identified several single nucleotide polymorphisms (SNPs) associated with fasting glucose and insulin concentrations in individuals free of diabetes. We tested the hypothesis that whole-grain food intake and genetic variation interact to influence concentrations of fasting glucose and insulin. Via meta-analysis of data from 14 cohorts comprising ∼ 48,000 participants of European descent, we studied interactions of whole-grain intake with loci previously associated in GWAS with fasting glucose (16 loci) and/or insulin (2 loci) concentrations. For tests of interaction, we considered a P value <0.0028 (0.05 of 18 tests) as statistically significant. Greater whole-grain food intake was associated with lower fasting glucose and insulin concentrations independent of demographics, other dietary and lifestyle factors, and BMI (β [95% CI] per 1-serving-greater whole-grain intake: -0.009 mmol/l glucose [-0.013 to -0.005], P < 0.0001 and -0.011 pmol/l [ln] insulin [-0.015 to -0.007], P = 0.0003). No interactions met our multiple testing-adjusted statistical significance threshold. The strongest SNP interaction with whole-grain intake was rs780094 (GCKR) for fasting insulin (P = 0.006), where greater whole-grain intake was associated with a smaller reduction in fasting insulin concentrations in those with the insulin-raising allele. Our results support the favorable association of whole-grain intake with fasting glucose and insulin and suggest a potential interaction between variation in GCKR and whole-grain intake in influencing fasting insulin concentrations.
Resumo:
BACKGROUND: The estimation of demographic parameters from genetic data often requires the computation of likelihoods. However, the likelihood function is computationally intractable for many realistic evolutionary models, and the use of Bayesian inference has therefore been limited to very simple models. The situation changed recently with the advent of Approximate Bayesian Computation (ABC) algorithms allowing one to obtain parameter posterior distributions based on simulations not requiring likelihood computations. RESULTS: Here we present ABCtoolbox, a series of open source programs to perform Approximate Bayesian Computations (ABC). It implements various ABC algorithms including rejection sampling, MCMC without likelihood, a Particle-based sampler and ABC-GLM. ABCtoolbox is bundled with, but not limited to, a program that allows parameter inference in a population genetics context and the simultaneous use of different types of markers with different ploidy levels. In addition, ABCtoolbox can also interact with most simulation and summary statistics computation programs. The usability of the ABCtoolbox is demonstrated by inferring the evolutionary history of two evolutionary lineages of Microtus arvalis. Using nuclear microsatellites and mitochondrial sequence data in the same estimation procedure enabled us to infer sex-specific population sizes and migration rates and to find that males show smaller population sizes but much higher levels of migration than females. CONCLUSION: ABCtoolbox allows a user to perform all the necessary steps of a full ABC analysis, from parameter sampling from prior distributions, data simulations, computation of summary statistics, estimation of posterior distributions, model choice, validation of the estimation procedure, and visualization of the results.
Resumo:
In May 1950 a proposal for a research project was submitted to the newly formed Iowa Highway Research Board for consideration and action. This project, designated RPSl by the Board, encompassed the study, development, preparation of preliminary plans and specifications for the construction of a wheel track to be used in the accelerated testing of highway pavements. The device envisioned in the proposal was a circular track about seventy-five feet in diameter equipped with a suitable automobile-tired device to test pavements about five feet in width laid into the track under regular construction practices by small scale construction equipment. The Board, upon review, revised and expanded the basic concepts of the project. The project as revised by the Board included a study of the feasibility of developing, constructing and operating an accelerated testing track in which pavements, bases and subgrades may be laid one full lane, or at least ten feet, in width by full size construction equipment in conformity with usual construction practices. The pavements so laid are to be subjected, during test, to conditions as nearly simulating actual traffic as possible.
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Due to frequent accidental damage to prestressed concrete (P/C) bridges caused by impact from overheight vehicles, a project was initiated to evaluate the strength and load distribution characteristics of damaged P/C bridges. A comprehensive literature review was conducted. It was concluded that only a few references pertain to the assessment and repair of damaged P/C beams. No reference was found that involves testing of a damaged bridge(s) as well as the damaged beams following their removal. Structural testing of two bridges was conducted in the field. The first bridge tested, damaged by accidental impact, was the westbound (WB) I-680 bridge in Beebeetown, Iowa. This bridge had significant damage to the first and second beams consisting of extensive loss of section and the exposure of numerous strands. The second bridge, the adjacent eastbound (EB) structure, was used as a baseline of the behavior of an undamaged bridge. Load testing concluded that a redistribution of load away from the damaged beams of the WB bridge was occurring. Subsequent to these tests, the damaged beams in the WB bridge were replaced and the bridge retested. The repaired WB bridge behaved, for the most part, like the undamaged EB bridge indicating that the beam replacement restored the original live load distribution patterns. A large-scale bridge model constructed for a previous project was tested to study the changes in behavior due to incrementally applied damage consisting initially of only concrete removal and then concrete removal and strand damage. A total of 180 tests were conducted with the general conclusion that for exterior beam damage, the bridge load distribution characteristics were relatively unchanged until significant portions of the bottom flange were removed along with several strands. A large amount of the total applied moment to the exterior beam was redistributed to the interior beam of the model. Four isolated P/C beams were tested, two removed from the Beebeetown bridge and two from the aforementioned bridge model. For the Beebeetown beams, the first beam, Beam 1W, was tested in an "as removed" condition to obtain the baseline characteristics of a damaged beam. The second beam, Beam 2W, was retrofit with carbon fiber reinforced polymer (CFRP) longitudinal plates and transverse stirrups to strengthen the section. The strengthened Beam was 12% stronger than Beam 1W. Beams 1 and 2 from the bridge model were also tested. Beam 1 was not damaged and served as the baseline behavior of a "new" beam while Beam 2 was damaged and repaired again using CFRP plates. Prior to debonding of the plates from the beam, the behavior of both Beams 1 and 2 was similar. The retrofit beam attained a capacity greater than a theoretically undamaged beam prior to plate debonding. Analytical models were created for the undamaged and damaged center spans of the WB bridge; stiffened plate and refined grillage models were used. Both models were accurate at predicting the deflections in the tested bridge and should be similarly accurate in modeling other P/C bridges. The moment fractions per beam were computed using both models for the undamaged and damaged bridges. The damaged model indicates a significant decrease in moment in the damaged beams and a redistribution of load to the adjacent curb and rail as well as to the undamaged beam lines.
Resumo:
Novel therapeutic agents targeting the epidermal growth factor receptor (EGFR) have improved outcomes for patients with colorectal carcinoma. However, these therapies are effective only in a subset of patients. Activating mutations in the KRAS gene are found in 30-40% of colorectal tumors and are associated with poor response to anti-EGFR therapies. Thus, KRAS mutation status can predict which patient may or may not benefit from anti-EGFR therapy. Although many diagnostic tools have been developed for KRAS mutation analysis, validated methods and standardized testing procedures are lacking. This poses a challenge for the optimal use of anti-EGFR therapies in the management of colorectal carcinoma. Here we review the molecular basis of EGFR-targeted therapies and the resistance to treatment conferred by KRAS mutations. We also present guideline recommendations and a proposal for a European quality assurance program to help ensure accuracy and proficiency in KRAS mutation testing across the European Union.
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Ga(3+) is a semimetal element that competes for the iron-binding sites of transporters and enzymes. We investigated the activity of gallium maltolate (GaM), an organic gallium salt with high solubility, against laboratory and clinical strains of methicillin-susceptible Staphylococcus aureus (MSSA), methicillin-resistant S. aureus (MRSA), methicillin-susceptible Staphylococcus epidermidis (MSSE), and methicillin-resistant S. epidermidis (MRSE) in logarithmic or stationary phase and in biofilms. The MICs of GaM were higher for S. aureus (375 to 2000 microg/ml) than S. epidermidis (94 to 200 microg/ml). Minimal biofilm inhibitory concentrations were 3,000 to >or=6,000 microg/ml (S. aureus) and 94 to 3,000 microg/ml (S. epidermidis). In time-kill studies, GaM exhibited a slow and dose-dependent killing, with maximal action at 24 h against S. aureus of 1.9 log(10) CFU/ml (MSSA) and 3.3 log(10) CFU/ml (MRSA) at 3x MIC and 2.9 log(10) CFU/ml (MSSE) and 4.0 log(10) CFU/ml (MRSE) against S. epidermidis at 10x MIC. In calorimetric studies, growth-related heat production was inhibited by GaM at subinhibitory concentrations; and the minimal heat inhibition concentrations were 188 to 4,500 microg/ml (MSSA), 94 to 1,500 microg/ml (MRSA), and 94 to 375 microg/ml (MSSE and MRSE), which correlated well with the MICs. Thus, calorimetry was a fast, accurate, and simple method useful for investigation of antimicrobial activity at subinhibitory concentrations. In conclusion, GaM exhibited activity against staphylococci in different growth phases, including in stationary phase and biofilms, but high concentrations were required. These data support the potential topical use of GaM, including its use for the treatment of wound infections, MRSA decolonization, and coating of implants.
Resumo:
The discovery of hypocretins (orexins) and their causal implication in narcolepsy is the most important advance in sleep research and sleep medicine since the discovery of rapid eye movement sleep. Narcolepsy with cataplexy is caused by hypocretin deficiency owing to destruction of most of the hypocretin-producing neurons in the hypothalamus. Ablation of hypocretin or hypocretin receptors also leads to narcolepsy phenotypes in animal models. Although the exact mechanism of hypocretin deficiency is unknown, evidence from the past 20 years strongly favours an immune-mediated or autoimmune attack, targeting specifically hypocretin neurons in genetically predisposed individuals. These neurons form an extensive network of projections throughout the brain and show activity linked to motivational behaviours. The hypothesis that a targeted immune-mediated or autoimmune attack causes the specific degeneration of hypocretin neurons arose mainly through the discovery of genetic associations, first with the HLA-DQB1*06:02 allele and then with the T-cell receptor α locus. Guided by these genetic findings and now awaiting experimental testing are models of the possible immune mechanisms by which a specific and localised brain cell population could become targeted by T-cell subsets. Great hopes for the identification of new targets for therapeutic intervention in narcolepsy also reside in the development of patient-derived induced pluripotent stem cell systems.
Resumo:
Aims: Plasma concentrations of imatinib differ largely between patients despite same dosage, owing to large inter-individual variability in pharmacokinetic (PK) parameters. As the drug concentration at the end of the dosage interval (Cmin) correlates with treatment response and tolerability, monitoring of Cmin is suggested for therapeutic drug monitoring (TDM) of imatinib. Due to logistic difficulties, random sampling during the dosage interval is however often performed in clinical practice, thus rendering the respective results not informative regarding Cmin values.Objectives: (I) To extrapolate randomly measured imatinib concentrations to more informative Cmin using classical Bayesian forecasting. (II) To extend the classical Bayesian method to account for correlation between PK parameters. (III) To evaluate the predictive performance of both methods.Methods: 31 paired blood samples (random and trough levels) were obtained from 19 cancer patients under imatinib. Two Bayesian maximum a posteriori (MAP) methods were implemented: (A) a classical method ignoring correlation between PK parameters, and (B) an extended one accounting for correlation. Both methods were applied to estimate individual PK parameters, conditional on random observations and covariate-adjusted priors from a population PK model. The PK parameter estimates were used to calculate trough levels. Relative prediction errors (PE) were analyzed to evaluate accuracy (one-sample t-test) and to compare precision between the methods (F-test to compare variances).Results: Both Bayesian MAP methods allowed non-biased predictions of individual Cmin compared to observations: (A) - 7% mean PE (CI95% - 18 to 4 %, p = 0.15) and (B) - 4% mean PE (CI95% - 18 to 10 %, p = 0.69). Relative standard deviations of actual observations from predictions were 22% (A) and 30% (B), i.e. comparable to the intraindividual variability reported. Precision was not improved by taking into account correlation between PK parameters (p = 0.22).Conclusion: Clinical interpretation of randomly measured imatinib concentrations can be assisted by Bayesian extrapolation to maximum likelihood Cmin. Classical Bayesian estimation can be applied for TDM without the need to include correlation between PK parameters. Both methods could be adapted in the future to evaluate other individual pharmacokinetic measures correlated to clinical outcomes, such as area under the curve(AUC).
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Geophysical methods have the potential to provide valuable information on hydrological properties in the unsaturated zone. In particular, time-lapse geophysical data, when coupled with a hydrological model and inverted stochastically, may allow for the effective estimation of subsurface hydraulic parameters and their corresponding uncertainties. In this study, we use a Bayesian Markov-chain-Monte-Carlo (MCMC) inversion approach to investigate how much information regarding vadose zone hydraulic properties can be retrieved from time-lapse crosshole GPR data collected at the Arrenaes field site in Denmark during a forced infiltration experiment.
Resumo:
Despite the increase of animal and plant introductions worldwide and the strong augmentation of the reptile trade, few invasive snake populations have been studied. Dice snakes (Natrix tessellata) were introduced to the shores of Lake Geneva (Switzerland) in the early 1920s, and are now well established. This region of introduction was previously inhabited by Viperine snakes (N. maura). Ever since these two species have been under monitoring (which began in 1996) the Viperine snake population has shown drastic decline. We examine here the possibility of trophic competition by analysing diet composition, prey size and trophic niche overlap. Spatial distribution is also assessed in order to address the question of spatial competitive exclusion. We found very similar diets, and thus a high trophic niche overlap, indicating no partitioning of the trophic resource. No arguments in favour of spatial competitive exclusion were found. Our study suggests that trophic competition may occur between the two natricines and that it may give an explanation for the drastic decline of the Viperine snake in this area. Other pathways potentially playing a role in the exclusion of the Viperine snake are discussed.