Jornades del moviment per la pau. Barcelona, 13 i 14 de novembre de 2009

Aquesta relatoria correspon a les Jornades del Moviment per la Pau coorganitzades per la Federació Catalana d’ONG per la Pau i l’Institut Català Internacional per la Pau, i que es van desenvolupar a Barcelona durant els dies 13 i 14 de novembre de 2009. L'objectiu era reflexionar i debatre sobre els plantejaments dels quals parteix el moviment, la identificació de noves realitats, els reptes de futur, i la possible adequació a nous enfocaments o estratègies per incrementar la incidència transformadora en el camp social i polític.

Reconsideration of dimensions and curve fitting practice in economics ellaborating on Georgescu-Roegen’s economic methodology

This paper is to examine the proper use of dimensions and curve fitting practices elaborating on Georgescu-Roegen’s economic methodology in relation to the three main concerns of his epistemological orientation. Section 2 introduces two critical issues in relation to dimensions and curve fitting practices in economics in view of Georgescu-Roegen’s economic methodology. Section 3 deals with the logarithmic function (ln z) and shows that z must be a dimensionless pure number, otherwise it is nonsensical. Several unfortunate examples of this analytical error are presented including macroeconomic data analysis conducted by a representative figure in this field. Section 4 deals with the standard Cobb-Douglas function. It is shown that the operational meaning cannot be obtained for capital or labor within the Cobb-Douglas function. Section 4 also deals with economists "curve fitting fetishism". Section 5 concludes thispaper with several epistemological issues in relation to dimensions and curve fitting practices in economics.

Do Legal Immigrants and Natives Compete in the Labour Market? Evidence from Catalonia

The precondition for labour-market competition between immigrants and natives is that both are willing to accept jobs that do not differ in quality. To test this hypothesis, in this paper we compare the working conditions between immigrants and natives in Catalonia. Comparing immigrants’ working conditions in relation to their native counterparts is not only a useful analysis for studying the extent to which immigrants and low-skilled native workers are direct competitors in the labour market, but also allows us to contribute to the literature on this issue by moving away from the conventional approach used in previous studies. Our results indicate that: i) natives and immigrants display a different taste for job (dis)amenities; ii) Catalan-born workers might be in direct competition with EU15 immigrants, while non-Catalan Spanish workers might be competing with Latin American immigrants, and; iii) African-born immigrants are the group in the Catalan workforce that by far face the worst working conditions.

CO2 emissions and economic activity: heterogeneity across countries and non stationary series

This paper explores the homogeneity of the functional form, the parameters, and the turning point, when appropriate, of the relationship between CO2 emissions and economic activity for 31 countries (28 OECD, Brazil, China, and India) during the period 1950 to 2006 using cointegration analysis. With a sample highly overlapped over time between countries, the result reveals that the homogeneity across countries is rejected, both in functional form and in the parameters of long term relationship. This confirms the relevance of considering the heterogeneity in exploring the relationship between air pollution and economic activity to avoid spurious parameter estimates and infer a wrong behavior of the functional form, which could lead to induce that the relationship is reversed when in fact it is direct.

Economic growth and inequality: the role of fiscal policies

This paper analyses the impact of different instruments of fiscal policy on economic growth as well as on income inequality, using an unbalanced panel of 43 upper-middle and high income countries for the period 1972-2006. We consider and estimate two individual equations explaining growth and inequality in order to assess the incidence of different fiscal policies. Firstly, our approach considers imposing orthogonal assumptions between growth and inequality in both equations, and secondly, it allows growth to be included in the inequality equation, and inequality to be included in the growth equation. The empirical results suggest that an increase in the size of government measured through current expenditures and direct taxes diminishes economic growth while reducing inequality, being public investment the only fiscal policy that may break this trade-off between efficiency and equity, since increases in this item reduces inequality without harming output. Therefore, the results reflect that the trade-off between efficiency and equity that governments often confront when designing their fiscal policies may be avoided.

The Political cost of reforms

This paper formalizes in a fully-rational model the popular idea that politicians perceive an electoral cost in adopting costly reforms with future benefits and reconciles it with the evidence that reformist governments are not punished by voters. To do so, it proposes a model of elections where political ability is ex-ante unknown and investment in reforms is unobservable. On the one hand, elections improve accountability and allow to keep well-performing incumbents. On the other, politicians make too little reforms in an attempt to signal high ability and increase their reappointment probability. Although in a rational expectation equilibrium voters cannot be fooled and hence reelection does not depend on reforms, the strategy of underinvesting in reforms is nonetheless sustained by out-of-equilibrium beliefs. Contrary to the conventional wisdom, uncertainty makes reforms more politically viable and may, under some conditions, increase social welfare. The model is then used to study how political rewards can be set so as to maximize social welfare and the desirability of imposing a one-term limit to governments. The predictions of this theory are consistent with a number of empirical regularities on the determinants of reforms and reelection. They are also consistent with a new stylized fact documented in this paper: economic uncertainty is associated to more reforms in a panel of 20 OECD countries.

Policy evaluation and uncertainty about the effects of oil prices on economic activity

This paper addresses the issue of policy evaluation in a context in which policymakers are uncertain about the effects of oil prices on economic performance. I consider models of the economy inspired by Solow (1980), Blanchard and Gali (2007), Kim and Loungani (1992) and Hamilton (1983, 2005), which incorporate different assumptions on the channels through which oil prices have an impact on economic activity. I first study the characteristics of the model space and I analyze the likelihood of the different specifications. I show that the existence of plausible alternative representations of the economy forces the policymaker to face the problem of model uncertainty. Then, I use the Bayesian approach proposed by Brock, Durlauf and West (2003, 2007) and the minimax approach developed by Hansen and Sargent (2008) to integrate this form of uncertainty into policy evaluation. I find that, in the environment under analysis, the standard Taylor rule is outperformed under a number of criteria by alternative simple rules in which policymakers introduce persistence in the policy instrument and respond to changes in the real price of oil.

A never-ending debate: Demand versus supply water policies. A CGE analysis for Catalonia

Water scarcity is a long-standing problem in Catalonia, as there are significant differences in the spatial and temporal distribution of water through the territory. There has consequently been a debate for many years about whether the solution to water scarcity must be considered in terms of efficiency or equity, the role that the public sector must play and the role that market-based instruments should play in water management. The aim of this paper is to use a Computable General Equilibrium (CGE) model to analyze the advantages and disadvantages associated with different policy instruments, from both a supply and a demand viewpoint, which can be applied to water management in Catalonia. We also introduce an ecological sector in our CGE model, allowing us to analyze the environmental impact of the alternative policies simulated. The calibration of the exogenous variables of the CGE model is performed by using a Social Accounting Matrix (SAM) for the Catalan economy with 2001 data. The results suggest that taking into account the principle of sustainability of the resource, the policy debate between supply and demand in water policies is obsolete, and a new combination of policies is required to respect the different values associated with water. Keywords: Water Policies; Computable General Equilibrium Model; Economic Effects; Environmental Effects.

Modelos de viento aplicados a la mejora en la predicción de incendios forestales

La predicción de incendios forestales es uno de los grandes retos de la comunidad científica debido al impacto medioambiental, humano y económico que tienen en la sociedad. El comportamiento de este fenómeno es difícil de modelar debido a la gran cantidad de variables que intervienen y la dificultad que implica su correcta medición. Los simuladores de fuego son herramientas muy útiles pero, actualmente, los resultados que obtenemos tienen un alto grado de imprecisión. Desde nuestro grupo se ha trabajado en la predicción en dos etapas, donde antes de realizar cualquier predicción, se incorpora una etapa de ajuste de los parámetros de entrada para obtener mejores predicciones. Pese a la mejora que supone este nuevo paradigma de predicción, las simulaciones sobre incendios reales tienen un alto grado de error por el efecto de las condiciones meteorológicas que, usualmente, varían de manera notable durante el transcurso de la simulación. Uno de los factores más determinantes en el comportamiento de un incendio, junto con las características del terreno, es el viento. Los modelos de predicción son extremadamente sensibles al cambio en los componentes de dirección y velocidad del viento por lo que cualquier mejora que podamos introducir para mejorar la calidad de estas componentes influye directamente en la calidad de la predicción. Nuestro sistema de predicción utiliza la dirección y velocidad del viento de forma global en todo el terreno, y lo que proponemos con este trabajo es introducir un modelo de vientos que nos permita generar vientos locales en todas las celdas en las que se divide el terreno. Este viento local dependerá del viento general y de las características del terreno de dichas celdas. Consideramos que la utilización de un viento general no es suficiente para realizar una buena predicción del comportamiento de un incendio y hemos comprobado que la inclusión de un simulador de campo de vientos en nuestro sistema puede llegar a mejorar nuestras predicciones considerablemente. Los resultados obtenidos en los experimentos sintéticos que hemos realizado nos hacen ser optimistas, puesto que consideramos que la inclusión de componentes de viento locales permitirá mejorar nuestras predicciones en incendios reales.

La integració de les energies renovables en un model energètic sostenible

La sostenibilitat del model energètic de Catalunya es veu condicionada per aspectes com la dependència energètica, la seguretat de subministrament, l’eficiència energètica, els impactes ambientals i la demanda creixent. D’altra banda, la incorporació d’energia renovable en el mix energètic implica una major autonomia energètica, seguretat de subministrament a llarg termini, i eficiència energètica, així com un menor impacte ambiental. Tanmateix, la contribució en el sistema elèctric d’un volum ja important i creixent d’energia renovable requereix una complexa tasca d’integració a nivell tècnic i econòmic. Per aconseguir-ho, és necessari desenvolupar una regulació estable que complementi el procés de liberalització del sector amb l’objectiu d’acomodar la generació renovable en un model energètic sostenible. La (in)formació i participació de la demanda es presenta com una condició clau per engegar el camí cap a una nova cultura energètica.

Re-opening the black box in societal metabolism: the application of MuSIASEM to water

In this paper we address the complexity of the analysis of water use in relation to the issue of sustainability. In fact, the flows of water in our planet represent a complex reality which can be studied using many different perceptions and narratives referring to different scales and dimensions of analysis. For this reason, a quantitative analysis of water use has to be based on analytical methods that are semantically open: they must be able to define what we mean with the term “water” when crossing different scales of analysis. We propose here a definition of water as a resource that deal with the many services it provides to humans and ecosystems. WE argue that water can fulfil so many of them since the element has many characteristics that allow for the resource to be labelled with different attributes, depending on the end use –such as drinkable. Since the services for humans and the functions for ecosystems associated with water flows are defined on different scales but still interconnected it is necessary to organize our assessment of water use across different hierarchical levels. In order to do so we define how to approach the study of water use in the Societal Metabolism, by proposing the Water Metabolism, tganized in three levels: societal level, ecosystem level and global level. The possible end uses we distinguish for the society are: personal/physiological use, household use, economic use. Organizing the study of “water use” across all these levels increases the usefulness of the quantitative analysis and the possibilities of finding relevant and comparable results. To achieve this result, we adapted a method developed to deal with multi-level, multi-scale analysis - the Multi-Scale Integrated Analysis of Societal and Ecosystem Metabolism (MuSIASEM) approach - to the analysis of water metabolism. In this paper, we discuss the peculiar analytical identity that “water” shows within multi-scale metabolic studies: water represents a flow-element when considering the metabolism of social systems (at a small scale, when describing the water metabolism inside the society) and a fund-element when considering the metabolism o ecosystems (at a larger scale when describing the water metabolism outside the society). The theoretical analysis is illustrated using two case which characterize the metabolic patterns regarding water use of a productive system in Catalonia and a water management policy in Andarax River Basin in Andalusia.

Internal and External Determinants of Radical and incremental Innovation in SMEs: the case of Catalonia

There is a major concern in economic literature about innovation, which is the interaction between internal and external factors.. In this paper those activities are hypothesized as being determined by some territorial characteristics like labour skills, technological infrastructure, educational facilities, agglomeration economies and industrial structure. This assumption allows understanding why those innovative activities are not spread across space and are located into specific areas. We use a detailed survey containing microdata for 497 SMEs located in Catalonia.

Two necessary conditions for strategy-proofness: on what domains are they also sufficient?

A social choice function may or may not satisfy a desirable property depending on its domain of definition. For the same reason, different conditions may be equivalent for functions defined on some domains, while different in other cases. Understanding the role of domains is therefore a crucial issue in mechanism design. We illustrate this point by analyzing the role of different conditions that are always related, but not always equivalent to strategy-proofness. We define two very natural conditions that are necessary for strategy-proofness: monotonicity and reshuffling invariance. We remark that they are not always sufficient. Then, we identify a domain condition, called intertwinedness, that ensures the equivalence between our two conditions and that of strategy-proofness. We prove that some important domains are intertwined: those of single-peaked preferences, both with public and private goods, and also those arising in simple models of house allocation. We prove that other necessary conditions for strategy-proofness also become equivalent to ours when applied to functions defined on intertwined domains, even if they are not equivalent in general. We also study the relationship between our domain restrictions and others that appear in the literature, proving that we are indeed introducing a novel proposal.

Spiritual Kinship, Political Mobilization and Social Cooperation: a Swiss Alpine valley in the Eighteenth and Nineteenth Centuries

In this chapter I will present some observations and results about Ritual Kinship and political mobilization of popular groups in an Alpine valley: the Val de Bagnes, in the Swiss canton of Valais, - a mountain valley, well known today thanks to the tourist station of Verbier - where we can rely on excellent sources about local families. This region presents a particular political situation, because the 11 major villages of the valley form only one commune, which includes the whole valley.¦There are two major reasons to choose the Val de Bagnes for our inquiry on kinship and social networks in a rural society:¦A. The existence of sharp political and social conflicts during the 18th and the 19th centuries;¦B. The existence of almost systematic genealogical data between 1700 and 1900. (Casanova, Gard, Perrenoud 2005-08)¦The 18th century was characterized by the struggle of an important part of the community of Bagnes against the feudal lord, the abbot of St-Maurice. The culminating point was a local upheaval in 1745 in Le Châble, during which the abbot was forced to sign several documents in accordance with the wishes of the rebels (Guzzi-Heeb 2007). In the 19th century feudal lordship was abolished, but now the struggle confronted a liberal-radical faction and the conservative majority in the commune.¦The starting point of my presentation focuses on this question: which role did spiritual kinship play in the political mobilization of popular groups and in the organization of competing factions? This question allows us to shed light on some utilizations and meanings of spiritual kinship in the local society. Was spiritual kinship a significant instrument for economic cooperation? Or was it a channel for privileged social contacts and transactions?