Lula and Brazil: investors twisted logic

Investors were wrong to believe in change for the better; Brazil is stuck for at least two years

The creative and advanced technology economy in Brazil: executive summary

This document brings together in a succinct form the available data about the current state of the Creative and Advanced Technology Economy of Brazil, presents some suggestions for public policies which can contribute to the development of technological and creative activities, and also points to issues to be studied and actions to be carried out in the future.

Por que o Congresso será ator-chave na agenda do governo brasileiro

A presença de chefes do Poder Executivo em sessões do Poder Legislativo é um ato relevante na política mundo afora. Esses são momentos-chave para entender a agenda política que se deseja levar a cabo e, muitas vezes, as próprias aspirações dos chefes de governo. A presença do presidente Barack Obama no Congresso americano, em janeiro, e da presidente Dilma Rousseff na abertura dos trabalhos legislativos no começo de fevereiro nos lembram como esses rituais inscritos nas regras da relação entre os poderes podem ser utilizados para a comunicação de intenções.

Brazil’s Twittersphere polarised on Lula

Lula polariza as redes sociais, de acordo com um estudo da DAPP publicado no jornal Financial Times.

Análise do discurso de Dilma no Congresso: tentativa de reaproximação

Análise de discurso da presidente Dilma Rousseff na abertura do ano legislativo de 2016 feito pela DAPP para coluna de Ancelmo Góis

Neutralizing the tendency to the overvaluation of the exchange rate or assuming a foreign constraint and asking for foreign savings

The objectives of these notes are two. The first objective is to analyze whether the strategy of growth with absorption of foreign savings leads to a trajectory of the economy that is sustainable in the long run. The second one is to evaluate the possibility of success of a policy of administered devaluation of the exchange rate in Brazil.

Notes on cyclical tendency to the overvaluation of the real

This note addresses the question “To what extent financial regulation in Brazil was effective in neutralizing the tendency to the overvaluation of the exchange rate in Brazil since the 1994 Real Plan?” Aiming at answering this question, this note is organized as follows: after this short introduction, we briefly describe the Brazilian exchange rate behavior after the Real Plan, emphasizing its key role in keeping prices stable. In section 3, the recent measures adopted by the Brazilian Central Bank (BCB) aiming at avoiding the overvaluation of real will be summarized. In section 4, we argue in favor of a new policy mix that could avoid overvaluation of the currency. Finally, some issues will be raised in order to effectively neutralize the overvaluation of real.

The 1999 Brazilian financial crisis: how to create a financial crisis by trying to avoid one

This paper attempts to understand the Brazilian financial crisis mainly from an ‘endogenous-failure’ perspective. It argues that the general mechanisms that led to this financial crisis were in essence endogenous to the workings of an economy facing a sudden liberalisation, a surge in capital inflows, ineffective regulation and weak governance. This paper will also argue that within this general framework, there is a very specific ‘Minskyian’ feature to the Brazilian crisis, which made it different from other financial crises both in Latin America and in East Asia: how a particularly radical monetary policy led to a major financial fragility in the financial sector and State finances, and to an unmanageable Ponzi finance in the accounts of the Federal Government.