A quasi-synoptic interpretation of water mass distribution and circulation in the western North Pacific: I. Water mass distribution

With high-resolution conductivity-temperature-depth (CTD) observations conducted in Oct.-Nov. 2005, this study provides a detailed quasi-synoptic description of the North Pacific Tropic Water (NPTW), North Pacific Intermediate Water (NPIW) and Antarctic Intermediate Water (AAIW) in the western North Pacific. Some novel features are found. NPTW enters the western ocean with highest-salinity core off shore at 15 degrees-18 degrees N, and then splits to flow northward and southward along the western boundary. Its salinity decreases and density increases outside the core region. NPIW spreads westward north of 15 degrees N with lowest salinity off shore at 21 degrees N, but mainly hugs the Mindanao coast south of 12 degrees N. It shoals and thins toward the south, with salinity increasing and density decreasing. AAIW extends to higher latitude off shore than that in shore, and it is traced as a salinity minimum to only 10 degrees N at 130 degrees E. Most of the South Pacific waters turn northeastward rather than directly flow northward upon reaching to the Mindanao coast, indicating the eastward shift of the Mindanao Undercurrent (MUC).

Interannual horizontal heat advection in the surface mixed layer over the equatorial Pacific Ocean: assimilation versus TAO analysis

The interannual anomalies of horizontal heat advection in the surface mixed layer over the equatorial Pacific Ocean in an assimilation experiment are studied and compared with existing observational analyses. The assimilation builds upon a hindcast study that has produced a good simulation of the observed equatorial currents and optimizes the simulation of the Reynolds sea surface temperature (SST) data. The comparison suggests that the assimilation has improved the simulation of the interannual horizontal heat advection of the surface mixed layer significantly. During periods of interrupted current measurements, the assimilation is shown to produce more meaningful anomalies of the heat advection than the interpolation of the observational data does. The assimilation also shows that the eddy heat flux due to the correlation between high-frequency current and SST variations, which is largely overlooked by the existing observational analyses, is important for the interannual SST balance over the equatorial Pacific. The interannual horizontal heat advection anomalies are found to be sensitive to SST errors where oceanic currents are strong, which is a challenge for ENSO prediction. The study further suggests that the observational analyses of the tropical SST balance based on the TAO and the Reynolds SST data contain significant errors due to the large gradient errors in the Reynolds SST data, which are amplified into the advection anomalies by the large equatorial currents.

Dynamics of nonlinear error growth and season-dependent predictability of El Nino events in the Zebiak-Cane model

With the intermediate-complexity Zebiak-Cane model, we investigate the 'spring predictability barrier' (SPB) problem for El Nino events by tracing the evolution of conditional nonlinear optimal perturbation (CNOP), where CNOP is superimposed on the El Nino events and acts as the initial error with the biggest negative effect on the El Nino prediction. We show that the evolution of CNOP-type errors has obvious seasonal dependence and yields a significant SPB, with the most severe occurring in predictions made before the boreal spring in the growth phase of El Nino. The CNOP-type errors can be classified into two types: one possessing a sea-surface-temperature anomaly pattern with negative anomalies in the equatorial central-western Pacific, positive anomalies in the equatorial eastern Pacific, and a thermocline depth anomaly pattern with positive anomalies along the Equator, and another with patterns almost opposite to those of the former type. In predictions through the spring in the growth phase of El Nino, the initial error with the worst effect on the prediction tends to be the latter type of CNOP error, whereas in predictions through the spring in the decaying phase, the initial error with the biggest negative effect on the prediction is inclined to be the former type of CNOP error. Although the linear singular vector (LSV)-type errors also have patterns similar to the CNOP-type errors, they cover a more localized area than the CNOP-type errors and cause a much smaller prediction error, yielding a less significant SPB. Random errors in the initial conditions are also superimposed on El Nino events to investigate the SPB. We find that, whenever the predictions start, the random errors neither exhibit an obvious season-dependent evolution nor yield a large prediction error, and thus may not be responsible for the SPB phenomenon for El Nino events. These results suggest that the occurrence of the SPB is closely related to particular initial error patterns. The two kinds of CNOP-type error are most likely to cause a significant SPB. They have opposite signs and, consequently, opposite growth behaviours, a result which may demonstrate two dynamical mechanisms of error growth related to SPB: in one case, the errors grow in a manner similar to El Nino; in the other, the errors develop with a tendency opposite to El Nino. The two types of CNOP error may be most likely to provide the information regarding the 'sensitive area' of El Nino-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) predictions. If these types of initial error exist in realistic ENSO predictions and if a target method or a data assimilation approach can filter them, the ENSO forecast skill may be improved. Copyright (C) 2009 Royal Meteorological Society

Equivalent-barotropic definition of tropospheric mean temperature

An equivalent-barotropic (EB) description of the tropospheric temperature field is derived from the geostrophic empirical mode (GEM) in the form of a scalar function Gamma(p, phi), where p is pressure and phi is 300-850-mb thickness. Baroclinic parameter phi plays the role of latitude at each longitudinal section. Compared with traditional Eulerian-mean methods, GEM defines a mean field in baroclinic streamfunction space with a time scale much longer than synoptic variability. It prompts an EB concept that is only based on a baroclinic field. Monthly GEM fields are diagnosed from NCEP-NCAR reanalysis data and account for more than 90% of the tropospheric thermal variance. The circumglobal composite of GEM fields exhibits seasonal, zonal, and hemispheric asymmetries, with larger rms errors occurring in winter and in the Northern Hemisphere (NH). Zonally asymmetric features and planetary deviation from EB are seen in the NH winter GEM. Reconstruction of synoptic sections and correlation analysis reveal that the tropospheric temperature field is EB at the leading order and has a 1-day phase lag behind barotropic variations in extratropical regions.

An extended variable-grid global ocean circulation model and its preliminary results of the equatorial Pacific circulation

To investigate the interaction between the tropical Pacific and China seas a variable-grid global ocean circulation model with fine grid[(1/6)degrees] covering the area from 20degreesS to 50degreesN and from 99degrees to 150degreesE is developed. Numerical computation of the annually cyclic circulation fields is performed. The results of the annual mean zonal currents and deep to abyssal western boundary currents in the equatorial Pacific Ocean are reported. The North Equatorial Current,the North Equatorial Countercurrent, the South Equatorial Current and the Equatorial Undercurrent are fairly well simulated. The model well reproduces the northward flowing abyssal western boundary current. From the model results a lower deep western boundary current east of the Bismarck-Solomon-New Hebrides Island chain at depths around 2 000 in has been found. The model results also show that the currents in the equatorial Pacific Ocean have multi-layer structures both in zonal currents and western boundary currents, indicating that the global ocean overturning thermohaline circulation appears of multi-layer pattern.

Progress of large-scale air-sea interaction studies in China

This paper summarizes the progress of large-scale air-sea interaction studies that has been achieved in China in the four-year period from July 1998 to July 2002, including seven aspects in the area of the air-sea interaction, namely air-sea interaction related to the tropical Pacific Ocean, monsoon-related air-sea interaction, air-sea interaction in the north Pacific Ocean, air-sea interaction in the Indian Ocean, air-sea interactions in the global oceans, field experiments, and oceanic cruise surveys. However more attention has been paid to the first and the second aspects because a large number of papers in the reference literature for preparing and organizing this paper are concentrated in the tropical Pacific Ocean, such as the ENSO process with its climatic effects and dynamics, and the monsoon-related air-sea interaction. The literature also involves various phenomena with their different time and spatial scales such as intraseasonal, annual, interannual, and interdecadal variabilities in the atmosphere/ocean interaction system, reflecting the contemporary themes in the four-year period at the beginning of an era from the post-TOGA to CLIVAR studies. Apparently, it is a difficult task to summarize the great progress in this area, as it is extracted from a large quantity of literature, although the authors tried very hard.

Interbasin freshwater, heat and salt transport through the boundaries of the East and South China Seas from a variable-grid global ocean circulation model

The monthly and annual mean freshwater, heat and salt transport through the open boundaries of the South and East China Seas derived from a variable-grid global ocean circulation model is reported. The model has 1/6degrees resolution for the seas adjacent to China and 30 resolution for the global ocean. The model results are in fairly good agreement with the existing estimates based on measurements. The computation shows that the flows passing through the South China Sea contribute volume, heat and salt transport of 5.3 Sv, 0.57 PW and 184 Ggs(-1), respectively (about 1/4) to the Indonesian Throughflow, indicating that the South China Sea is an important pathway of the Pacific to Indian Ocean throughflow. The volume, heat and salt transport of the Kuroshio in the East China Sea is 25.6 Sv, 2.32 PW and 894 Ggs(-1), respectively. Less than 1/4 of this transport passes through the passage between Iriomote and Okinawa. The calculation of heat balance indicates that the South China Sea absorbs net heat flux from the sun and atmosphere with a rate of 0.08 PW, while the atmosphere gains net heat flux from the Baohai, Yellow and East China Seas with a rate of 0.05 PW.

Sea surface height and transport stream function of the South China Sea from a variable-grid global ocean circulation model

A fine-grid model (1/6degrees) covering the South China Sea (SCS), East China Sea and Japan/East Sea, which is embedded into a coarse-grid (3degrees) global model, was established to study the SCS circulation. In the present paper, we report the model-produced monthly and annual mean transport stream functions and sea surface heights(SSH) and their anomalies of the SCS. Comparison to the TOPEX/Poseidon data shows that the model-produced monthly sea surface height anomalies (SSHA) are in good agreement with altimeter measurements. Based on the results, the circulation of the SCS, especially the upper layer circulation, is discussed. In the surface layer, the western Philippine Sea water intrudes into the SCS through the Luzon Strait in autumn, winter and spring, but not in summer. However, as far as the whole water column is concerned, the water intrudes into the SCS through the Luzon Strait all the year round. This indicates that in summer the water still intrudes into the SCS in the subsurface and intermediate layers. The area near the northern continental slope of the SCS is dominated by a cyclonic circulation all the year round. The SCS Southern Anticyclonic Gyre, SE Vietnam Off-Shore Current in summertime and SCS Southern Cyclonic Gyre in wintertime are reproduced reasonably. The difference between the monthly averaged SSH and SSHA is significant, indicating the importance of the mean SSH in the SCS circulation.

Mean sea surface heights of the South and East China Seas from ocean circulation model and geodetic leveling

The mean sea surface heights (sea surface topography) of the South China, East China, Yellow and Bohai Seas are derived from an ocean general circulation model and surface air pressure. The circulation model covers the global oceans, with fine grid (1/6degrees) covering the East Asian marginal seas and coarse grid (31) covering the rest part of the global oceans. The result shows that the China 1985 National Altitude Datum is 24.7 cm above the me-an sea surface height of the world oceans. The mean sea surface in the coastal ocean adjacent to China is higher in the south than in the north. Intercomparison of the model results with the geodetic leveling measurements at 28 coastal tidal stations shows a standard deviation of 4.8 cm and a fitting coefficient of 95.3%. After correction through linear regression, the standard deviation is reduced to 4.5 cm. This indicates that the accuracy of model results is sufficient for practical application. Based on the model results, the mean sea surface heights for the study area with a resolution of 1/6 degree are given. This result also links the mean sea levels at islands with those on the mainland coast and gives the mean sea surface heights at tidal stations in the Taiwan Island, the Dongsha Islands, the Yisha Islands and the Nansha Islands relative to the China 1985 National Altitude Datum.

The role of Qiongzhou Strait in the seasonal variation of the South China Sea circulation

An analysis of the water level and current data taken in Qiongzhou Strait in the South China Sea (SCS) over the last 37 years (1963 to 1999) was made to examine the characteristics of tidal waves and residual flow through the strait and their roles in the seasonal variation of the SCS circulation. The observations reveal that Qiongzhou Strait is an area where opposing tidal waves interact and a source of water transport to the Gulf of Beibu (Gulf of Tonkin), SCS. A year-round westward mean flow with a maximum speed of 10-40 cm s(-1) is found in Qiongzhou Strait. This accounts for water transport of 0.2-0.4 Sv and 0.1-0.2 Sv into the Gulf of Beibu in winter-spring and summer-autumn, respectively. The outflow from Qiongzhou Strait may cause up to 44% of the gulf water to be refreshed each season, suggesting that it has a significant impact on the seasonal circulation in the Gulf of Beibu. This finding is in contrast to our current understanding that the seasonal circulation patterns in the South China Sea are primarily driven by seasonal winds. Several numerical experiments were conducted to examine the physical mechanisms responsible for the formation of the westward mean flow in Qiongzhou Strait. The model provides a reasonable simulation of semidiurnal and diurnal tidal waves in the strait and the predicted residual flow generally agrees with the observed mean flow. An analysis of the momentum equations indicates that the strong westward flow is driven mainly by tidal rectification over variable bottom topography. Both observations and modeling suggest that the coastal physical processes associated with tidal rectification and buoyancy input must be taken into account when the mass balance of the SCS circulation is investigated, especially for the regional circulation in the Gulf of Beibu.

Circulation in the western tropical Pacific Ocean and its seasonal variation

An assimilation data set based on the GFDL MOM3 model and the NODC XBT data set is used to examine the circulation in the western tropical Pacific and its seasonal variations. The assimilated and observed velocities and transports of the mean circulation agree well. Transports of the North Equatorial Current (NEC), Mindanao Current (MC), North Equatorial Countercurrent (NECC) west of 140degreesE and Kuroshio origin estimated with the assimilation data display the seasonal cycles, roughly strong in boreal spring and weak in autumn, with a little phase difference. The NECC transport also has a semi-annual fluctuation resulting from the phase lag between seasonal cycles of two tropical gyres' recirculations. Strong in summer during the southeast monsoon period, the seasonal cycle of the Indonesian throughflow (ITF) is somewhat different from those of its upstreams, the MC and New Guinea Coastal Current (NGCC), implying the monsoon's impact on it.

COASTAL SEA-LEVEL AND THE LARGE-SCALE CLIMATE STATE - A DOWNSCALING EXERCISE FOR THE JAPANESE ISLANDS

A major problem which is envisaged in the course of man-made climate change is sea-level rise. The global aspect of the thermal expansion of the sea water likely is reasonably well simulated by present day climate models; the variation of sea level, due to variations of the regional atmospheric forcing and of the large-scale oceanic circulation, is not adequately simulated by a global climate model because of insufficient spatial resolution. A method to infer the coastal aspects of sea level change is to use a statistical ''downscaling'' strategy: a linear statistical model is built upon a multi-year data set of local sea level data and of large-scale oceanic and/or atmospheric data such as sea-surface temperature or sea-level air-pressure. We apply this idea to sea level along the Japanese coast. The sea level is related to regional and North Pacific sea-surface temperature and sea-level air pressure. Two relevant processes are identified. One process is the local wind set-up of water due to regional low-frequency wind anomalies; the other is a planetary scale atmosphere-ocean interaction which takes place in the eastern North Pacific.

Intraseasonal variability of Indian Ocean sea surface temperature during boreal winter: Madden-Julian Oscillation versus submonthly forcing and processes

[ 1] Intraseasonal variability of Indian Ocean sea surface temperature (SST) during boreal winter is investigated by analyzing available data and a suite of solutions to an ocean general circulation model for 1998 - 2004. This period covers the QuikSCAT and Tropical Rainfall Measuring Mission (TRMM) observations. Impacts of the 30 - 90 day and 10 - 30 day atmospheric intraseasonal oscillations (ISOs) are examined separately, with the former dominated by the Madden-Julian Oscillation (MJO) and the latter dominated by convectively coupled Rossby and Kelvin waves. The maximum variation of intraseasonal SST occurs at 10 degrees S - 2 degrees S in the wintertime Intertropical Convergence Zone (ITCZ), where the mixed layer is thin and intraseasonal wind speed reaches its maximum. The observed maximum warming ( cooling) averaged over ( 60 degrees E - 85 degrees E, 10 degrees S - 3 degrees S) is 1.13 degrees C ( - 0.97 degrees C) for the period of interest, with a standard deviation of 0.39 degrees C in winter. This SST change is forced predominantly by the MJO. While the MJO causes a basin-wide cooling ( warming) in the ITCZ region, submonthly ISOs cause a more complex SST structure that propagates southwestward in the western-central basin and southeastward in the eastern ocean. On both the MJO and submonthly timescales, winds are the deterministic factor for the SST variability. Short-wave radiation generally plays a secondary role, and effects of precipitation are negligible. The dominant role of winds results roughly equally from wind speed and stress forcing. Wind speed affects SST by altering turbulent heat fluxes and entrainment cooling. Wind stress affects SST via several local and remote oceanic processes.

Effects of buoyancy on Langmuir circulation

Based on the Navier-Stokes equation, an equation describing the Langmuir circulation is derived by a perturbation method when the influences of Coriolis force and buoyancy force are both considered. The approach used in the analysis is similar to the works carried out by Craik and Leibovich [J. Fluid Mech. 73 (1976) 401], Leibovich [J. Fluid Mech. 79 (1977) 715] and Huang [J. Fluid Mech. 91 (1979) 191]. Potential applications of the equation proposed are discussed in the area of Antarctic circumpolar current.