Modeling the monetary policy reaction function of the colombian central bank

This paper proposes a simple Ordered Probit model to analyse the monetary policy reaction function of the Colombian Central Bank. There is evidence that the reaction function is asymmetric, in the sense that the Bank increases the Bank rate when the gap between observed inflation and the inflation target (lagged once) is positive, but it does not reduce the Bank rate when the gap is negative. This behaviour suggests that the Bank is more interested in fulfilling the announced inflation target rather than in reducing inflation excessively. The forecasting performance of the model, both within and beyond the estimation period, appears to be particularly good.

On blame-freeness and reciprocity: an experimental study

The theory of reciprocity is predicated on the assumption that people are willing to reward nice or kind acts and to punish unkind ones. This assumption raises the question as to how to define kindness. In this paper we offer a new definition of kindness that we call “blame-freeness.” Put most simply, blame-freeness states that in judging whether player i has been kind or unkind to player j in a social situation, player j would have to put himself in the strategic position of player i, while retaining his preferences, and ask if he would have acted in a manner that was worse than i did under identical circumstances. If j would have acted in a more unkind manner than i acted, then we say that j does not blame i for his behavior. If, however, j would have been nicer than i was, then we say that “j blames i” for his actions (i’s actions were blameworthy). We consider this notion a natural, intuitive and empirically relevant way to explain the motives of people engaged in reciprocal behavior. After developing the conceptual framework, we then test this concept in a laboratory experiment involving tournaments and find significant support for the theory.

Business cycle asymmentries: An investment cost approach

In this paper, investment cost asymmetry is introduced in order to test wheter this kind of asymmetry can account for asymmetries in business cycles. By using a smooth transition function, asymmetric investment cost is modeled and introduced in a canonical RBC model. Simulations of the model with Perturbations Method (PM) are very close to simulations through Parameterized Expectations Algorithm (PEA), which allows the use of the former for the sake of time reduction and computational costs. Both symmetric and asymmetric models were simulated and compared. Deterministic and stochastic impulse-response excersices revealed that it is possible to adequately reproduce asymmetric business cycles by modeling asymmetric investment costs. Simulations also showed that higher order moments are insu_cient to detect asymmetries. Instead, methods such as Generalized Impulse Response Analysis (GIRA) and Nonlinear Econometrics prove to be more e_cient diagnostic tools.

Business cycle asymmetries: Loss aversion, sticky prices, and wages

In this chapter, the Smets-Wouters (2003) New Kenesian model is reformulated by introducing the loss aversion utility function developed in chapter two. The purpose of this is to understand how asymmetric real business cycles are linked to asymmetric behavior of agents in a price and wage rigidities set up. The simulations of the model reveal not only that the loss aversion in consumption and leisure is a good mechanism channel for explaining business cycle asymmetries, but also is a good mechanism channel for explaining asymmetric adjustment of prices and wages. Therefore the existence of asymmetries in Phillips Curve. Moreover, loss aversion makes downward rigidities in prices and wages stronger and also reproduces a more severe and persistent fall of the employment. All in all, this model generates asymmetrical real business cycles, asymmetric price and wage adjustment as well as hysteresis.

A DSGE model with loss aversion in consumption and leisure: an explanation for business cycles asymmetries

In this chapter, an asymmetric DSGE model is built in order to account for asymmetries in business cycles. One of the most important contributions of this work is the construction of a general utility function which nests loss aversion, risk aversion and habits formation by means of a smooth transition function. The main idea behind this asymmetric utility function is that under recession the agents over-smooth consumption and leisure choices in order to prevent a huge deviation of them from the reference level of the utility; while under boom, the agents simply smooth consumption and leisure, but trying to be as far as possible from the reference level of utility. The simulations of this model by means of Perturbations Method show that it is possible to reproduce asymmetrical business cycles where recession (on shock) are stronger than booms and booms are more long-lasting than recession. One additional and unexpected result is a downward stickiness displayed by real wages. As a consequence of this, there is a more persistent fall in employment in recession than in boom. Thus, the model reproduces not only asymmetrical business cycles but also real stickiness and hysteresis.

A simple test of momentum in foreign exchange markets

This study proposes a new method for testing for the presence of momentum in nominal exchange rates, using a probabilistic approach. We illustrate our methodology estimating a binary response model using information on local currency / US dollar exchange rates of eight emerging economies. After controlling for important variables a§ecting the behavior of exchange rates in the short-run, we show evidence of exchange rate inertia; in other words, we Önd that exchange rate momentum is a common feature in this group of emerging economies, and thus foreign exchange traders participating in these markets are able to make excess returns by following technical analysis strategies. We Önd that the presence of momentum is asymmetric, being stronger in moments of currency depreciation than of appreciation. This behavior may be associated with central bank intervention

Investment in transport capacity and regulation of regional monopolies in natural gas commodity markets

This paper develops a model of the regulator-regulated firm relationship in a regional natural gas commodity market which can be linked to a competitive market by a pipeline. We characterize normative policies under which the regulator, in addition to setting the level of the capacity of the pipeline, regulates the price of gas, under asymmetric information on the firm’s technology, and may (or may not) operate (two-way) transfers between consumers and the firm. We then focus on capacity and investigate how its level responds to the regulator’s taking account of the firm’s incentive compatibility constraints. The analysis yields some insights on the role that transport capacity investments may play as an instrument to improve the efficiency of geographically isolated markets.

Forecasting the spot prices of various coffee types using linear and non-linear error correction models

Este documento estima modelos lineales y no-lineales de corrección de errores para los precios spot de cuatro tipos de café. En concordancia con las leyes económicas, se encuentra evidencia que cuando los precios están por encima de su nivel de equilibrio, retornan a éste mas lentamente que cuando están por debajo. Esto puede reflejar el hecho que, en el corto plazo, para los países productores de café es mas fácil restringir la oferta para incrementar precios, que incrementarla para reducirlos. Además, se encuentra evidencia que el ajuste es más rápido cuando las desviaciones del equilibrio son mayores. Los pronósticos que se obtienen a partir de los modelos de corrección de errores no lineales y asimétricos considerados en el trabajo, ofrecen una leve mejoría cuando se comparan con los pronósticos que resultan de un modelo de paseo aleatorio.

Stock return comovements and integration within the Latin American integrated market

Financial integration has been pursued aggressively across the globe in the last fifty years; however, there is no conclusive evidence on the diversification gains (or losses) of such efforts. These gains (or losses) are related to the degree of comovements and synchronization among increasingly integrated global markets. We quantify the degree of comovements within the integrated Latin American market (MILA). We use dynamic correlation models to quantify comovements across securities as well as a direct integration measure. Our results show an increase in comovements when we look at the country indexes, however, the increase in the trend of correlation is previous to the institutional efforts to establish an integrated market in the region. On the other hand, when we look at sector indexes and an integration measure, we find a decreased in comovements among a representative sample of securities form the integrated market.

El rol de la interdependencia asimétrica de Ucrania a Rusia en la calidad de la democracia ucraniana 2004 – 2010

El objetivo de este trabajo es explicar el rol de la Interdependencia Asimétrica de Rusia y Ucrania en la Calidad de la Democracia ucraniana 2004-2010; las democracias actuales se ven afectadas por actores externos dado el afianzamiento de relaciones económicas asimétricas. El estudio de caso será abordado desde el concepto de Calidad de la Democracia de Leonardo Morlino y el de Internacionalización de Robert Keohane y Helen Milner. La Revolución Naranja, las crisis del gas de 2006 - 2009 y las elecciones de 2010 serán los fenómenos explicados. Desde un enfoque neo-institucional, las relaciones de Interdependencia Asimétrica de Ucrania con Rusia, afectan la calidad de la democracia ucraniana configurándose en un actor más de la política doméstica.

Estrategia de intervención militar de Estados Unidos en Medio Oriente: dinámicas y consecuencias del uso de drones en Yemen y Pakistán entre 2009 a 2013

Este es un estudio sobre la estrategia de guerra estadounidense en Medio Oriente basada en el uso sistemático de drones durante el periodo comprendido entre 2009 y 2013. Se busca explicar de qué manera puede considerarse el uso de este tipo de armamento como una práctica basada en la proyección de poder sin mayor vulnerabilidad. Los casos de Pakistán y Yemen son abordados, ya que evidencian las características de las operaciones selectivas por las que ha abogado el Presidente Obama. El estudio se inscribe dentro del realismo ofensivo, haciendo también referencia a sus limitaciones explicativas. Empero, se afirma que las dinámicas y consecuencias de la utilización de drones son intrínsecas a la necesidad estadounidense de combatir actores no estatales mediante prácticas que garanticen su seguridad y pretensiones hegemónicas a pesar de las implicaciones políticas , legales y sociales en las que puede incurrir.

Síntesi i Caracterització de Nous Complexos de Ruteni contenint Lligands Quirals. Aplicacions en Catàlisi Asimètrica

La Tesis describe una serie de complejos de Rutenio conteniendo ligandos quirales y su aplicación en catálisis asimétrica. Por un lado se describe el complejo [RuCl(bpea)((S)-BINAP)](BF4), donde (S)-BINAP es una difosfina quiral y bpea un ligando N-tridentado. Su aplicación en catálisis de hidrogenación asimétrica de sustratos olefínicos y carbonílicos, tanto en fase homogénea como heterogénea (tras inmovilización sobre soportes alumino-fosfato), ha mostrado excelentes resultados de conversión y excesos enantioméricos. Aparte, se ha desarrollado una familia de complejos con fórmula [Ru(T)(B)X], donde T representa un ligando tri-N-dentado, B una di-oxazolina quiral y X es Cl o H2O. Se ha estudiado la actividad catalítica de los aquocomplejos con T = tpm en epoxidaciones, determinándose la influencia de los sustituyentes en B sobre el rendimiento y la quimioselectividad, favorecidos por interacciones de tipo π-stacking. El uso de otros ligandos tridentados ha llevado a su rotura, habiéndose caracterizado sin embargo los correspondientes complejos

Síntesi, caracterització i avaluació com a catalitzadors de nous complexos quirals de platí

The oxidative addition proved to be a useful method to prepare platinum (II) hydridotiolate by reaction of tetrakis(triphenylphosphine)platinum(0) with aminothiolate and phosphinothiolate ligands like cysteamine, cysteine ethyl and methyl Esther, 2-(diphenylphosphino)ethanetiol and 2-(diphenylphosphino)propanetiol. The complexes are square-planar and the aminothiolate or phosphinothiolate ligands are chelated to platinum (II). The hydrido ligand is trans to the sulfur and the other coordination position is occuped by a triphenylphosphine ligand. The complexes are mononuclear and they show low symmetry. The only symmetry element, the plan is broke if the ligand is branched, obtaining asymmetric complexes C1. If the ligand has electronic or esteric impediments the reaction doesn't run and the starting products are recovered. This was observed with N,N-dimethylcysteamine and penicylamine methyl esther ligands. In the special case of orthoaminotiophenol the hydridotiolate was obtained but the ligand was not chelated. The aminothiolate complexes don't show solution equilibrium. Otherwise, the complexe with 2-(diphenylphosphino)ethanetiol show an isomerisation equilibrium which forms cis isomer as a minor component. The complexe with 2-(diphenylphosphino)-propanetiol shows a conformational equilibrium between chair and twist forms. The complexes have been tested as catalyst precursors in hydroformylation and hydrosilylation reactions. The hydroformylation reaction runs only in presence of SnCl2 as cocatalyst. Catalytic activity depends on the presence of triphenylphosphine and, with less magnitude, CO and H2 pressure. We also studied the enantioselectivity using a chiral complexe. In the hydrosililation reaction, catalysts run with good results (<90%) using triethylsilane as silicon hydride. Dehydrogenative addition product has been also found in this reaction.

Desenvolupament, implementació i aplicació de noves metodologies per a l'estudi de la reactivitat química i de les propietats òptiques no lineals

El coneixement de la superfície d'energia potencial (PES) ha estat essencial en el món de la química teòrica per tal de discutir tant la reactivitat química com l'estructura i l'espectroscòpia molecular. En el camp de la reactivitat química es hem proposat continuar amb el desenvolupament de nova metodologia dins el marc de la teoria del funcional de la densitat conceptual. En particular aquesta tesis es centrarà en els següents punts: a) El nombre i la naturalesa dels seus punts estacionaris del PES poden sofrir canvis radicals modificant el nivell de càlcul utilitzats, de tal manera que per estar segurs de la seva naturalesa cal anar a nivells de càlcul molt elevats. La duresa és una mesura de la resistència d'un sistema químic a canviar la seva configuració electrònica, i segons el principi de màxima duresa on hi hagi un mínim o un màxim d'energia trobarem un màxim o un mínim de duresa, respectivament. A l'escollir tot un conjunt de reaccions problemàtiques des del punt de vista de presència de punts estacionaris erronis, hem observat que els perfils de duresa són més independents de la base i del mètode utilitzats, a més a més sempre presenten el perfil correcte. b) Hem desenvolupat noves expressions basades en les integracions dels kernels de duresa per tal de determinar la duresa global d'una molècula de manera més precisa que la utilitzada habitualment que està basada en el càlcul numèric de la derivada segona de l'energia respecte al número d'electrons. c) Hem estudiat la validesa del principis de màxima duresa i de mínima polaritzabiliat en les vibracions asimètriques en sistemes aromàtics. Hem trobat que per aquests sistemes alguns modes vibracionals incompleixen aquests principis i hem analitzat la relació d'aquest l'incompliment amb l'efecte de l'acoblament pseudo-Jahn-Teller. A més a més, hem postulat tot un conjunt de regles molt senzilles que ens permetien deduir si una molècula compliria o no aquests principis sense la realització de cap càlcul previ. Tota aquesta informació ha estat essencial per poder determinar exactament quines són les causes del compliment o l'incompliment del MHP i MPP. d) Finalment, hem realitzat una expansió de l'energia funcional en termes del nombre d'electrons i de les coordenades normals dintre del conjunt canònic. En la comparació d'aquesta expansió amb l'expansió de l'energia del nombre d'electrons i del potencial extern hem pogut recuperar d'una altra forma diferent tot un conjunt de relacions ja conegudes entre alguns coneguts descriptors de reactivitat del funcional de la densitat i en poden establir tot un conjunt de noves relacions i de nous descriptors. Dins del marc de les propietats moleculars es proposa generalitzar i millorar la metodologia pel càlcul de la contribució vibracional (Pvib) a les propietats òptiques no lineals (NLO). Tot i que la Pvib no s'ha tingut en compte en la majoria dels estudis teòrics publicats de les propietats NLO, recentment s'ha comprovat que la Pvib de diversos polímers orgànics amb altes propietats òptiques no lineals és fins i tot més gran que la contribució electrònica. Per tant, tenir en compte la Pvib és essencial en el disseny dels nous materials òptics no lineals utilitzats en el camp de la informàtica, les telecomunicacions i la tecnologia làser. Les principals línies d'aquesta tesis sobre aquest tema són: a) Hem calculat per primera vegada els termes d'alt ordre de Pvib de diversos polímers orgànics amb l'objectiu d'avaluar la seva importància i la convergència de les sèries de Taylor que defineixen aquestes contribucions vibracionals. b) Hem avaluat les contribucions electròniques i vibracionals per una sèrie de molècules orgàniques representatives utilitzant diferents metodologies, per tal de poder de determinar quina és la manera més senzilla per poder calcular les propietats NLO amb una precisió semiquantitativa.

The effects of extracorporeal membrane oxygenation (ECMO) on auditory brainstem responses (ABR) in neonates

This paper presents a study of the effects of extracorporeal membrane oxygenation (ECMO) on the auditory brainstem response (ABR) of twenty-three neonates, and whether there was asymmetric ABRs in the neonates who had ECMO.