NEW DATA ON THE CHRONOLOGY OF THE VALE DO FORNO SEDIMENTARY SEQUENCE (LOWER TAGUS RIVER TERRACE STAIRCASE) AND ITS RELEVANCE AS FLUVIAL ARCHIVE OF THE MIDDLE PLEISTOCENE IN WESTERN IBERIA

NEW DATA ON THE CHRONOLOGY OF THE VALE DO FORNO SEDIMENTARY SEQUENCE (LOWER TAGUS RIVER TERRACE STAIRCASE) AND ITS RELEVANCE AS FLUVIAL ARCHIVE OF THE MIDDLE PLEISTOCENE IN WESTERN IBERIA Pedro P. Cunha 1, António A. Martins 2, Jan-Pieter Buylaert 3,4, Andrew S. Murray 4, Luis Raposo 5, Paolo Mozzi 6, Martin Stokes 7 1 MARE - Marine and Environmental Sciences Centre, Department of Earth Sciences, University of Coimbra, Portugal: pcunha@dct.uc.pt 2 MARE - Marine and Environmental Sciences Centre, Dep. Geociências, University of Évora, Portugal; aam@uevora.pt 3 Centre for Nuclear Technologies, Technical University of Denmark, Risø Campus, Denmark; jabu@dtu.dk 4 Nordic Laboratory for Luminescence Dating, Aarhus University, Risø DTU, Denmark; anmu@dtu.dk 5 Museu Nacional de Arqueologia, Lisboa, Portugal; 3raposos@sapo.pt 6 Department of Geosciences, University of Padova, Italy; paolo.mozzi@unipd.it 7 School of Geography, Earth and Environmental Sciences, University of Plymouth, UK; m.stokes@plymouth.ac.uk The stratigraphic units that record the evolution of the Tagus River in Portugal (study area between Vila Velha de Ródão and Porto Alto villages; Fig. 1) have different sedimentary characteristics and lithic industries (Cunha et al., 2012): - a culminant sedimentary unit (the ancestral Tagus, before the drainage network entrenchment) – SLD13 (+142 to 262 m above river bed – a.r.b.; with probable age ca. 3,6 to 1,8 Ma), without artefacts; - T1 terrace (+84 to 180 m; ca. 1000? to 900 ka), without artefacts; - T2 terrace (+57 to 150 m; top deposits with a probable age ca. 600 ka), without artefacts; - T3 terrace (+43 to 113 m; ca. 460 to 360? ka), without artefacts; - T4 terrace (+26 to 55 m; ca. 335 a 155 ka), Lower Paleolithic (Acheulian) at basal and middle levels but early Middle Paleolithic at top levels; - T5 terrace (+5 to 34 m; 135 to 73 ka), Middle Paleolithic (Mousterian; Levallois technique); - T6 terrace (+3 to 14 m; 62 to 32 ka), late Middle Paleolithic (late Mousterian); - Carregueira Sands (aeolian sands) and colluvium (+3 a ca. 100 m; 32 to 12 ka), Upper Paleolithic to Epipaleolithic; - alluvial plain (+0 to 8 m; ca. 12 ka to present), Mesolithic and more recent industries. The differences in elevation (a.r.b.) of the several terrace staircases results from differential uplift due to active faults. Longitudinal correlation with the terrace levels indicates that a graded profile ca. 200 km long was achieved during terrace formation periods and a strong control by sea base level was determinant for terrace formation. The Neogene sedimentary units constituted the main source of sediments for the fluvial terraces (Fig. 2). Geomorphological mapping, coupled with lithostratigraphy, sedimentology and luminescence dating (quartz-OSL and K-feldspar post-IRIR290) were used in this study focused on the T4 terrace, which comprises a Lower Gravels (LG) unit and an Upper Sand (US) unit. The thick, coarse and dominantly massive gravels of the LG unit indicate deposition by a coarse bed-load braided river, with strong sediment supply, high gradient and fluvial competence, during conditions of rapidly rising sea level. Luminescence dating only provided minimum ages but it is probable that the LG unit corresponds to the earlier part of the MIS9 (ca. 335 to 325 ka), immediately postdating the incision promoted by the very low sea level (reaching ca. -140 m) during MIS10 (362 to 337 ka), a period of relatively cold climate conditions with weak vegetation cover on slopes and low sea level. Fig. 1. Main Portuguese reaches in which the Tagus River can be divided (Lower Tagus Basin): I – from the Spanish border to Arneiro (a general E–W trend, mainly consisting of polygonal segments); II – from Arneiro to Gavião (NE–SW); III – from Gavião to Arripiado (E–W); IV – from Arripiado to Vila Franca de Xira (NNE-SSW); V – from Vila Franca de Xira to the Atlantic shoreline. The faults considered to be the limit of the referred fluvial sectors are: F1 – Ponsul-Arneiro fault (WSW-ENE); F2 – Gavião fault (NW-SE); F3 – Ortiga fault (NW-SE); F4 – Vila Nova da Barquinha fault (W-E); F5 – Arripiado-Chamusca fault (NNE-SSW). 1 – estuary; 2 – terraces; 3 – faults; 4 – Tagus main channel. The main Iberian drainage basins are also represented (inset). The lower and middle parts of the US unit, comprising an alternation of clayish silts with paleosols and minor sands to the east (flood-plain deposits) and sand deposits to the west (channel belt), have a probable age of ca. 325 to 200 ka. This points to formation during MIS9 to MIS7, under conditions of high to medium sea levels and warm to mild conditions. The upper part of the US unit, dominated by sand facies and with OSL ages of ca. 200 to 154 ka, correlates with the early part of the MIS6. During this period, progradation resulted from climate deterioration and relative depletion of vegetation that promoted enhanced sediment production in the catchment, coupled with initiation of sea-level lowering that increased the longitudinal slope. The Vale do Forno and Vale da Atela archaeological sites (Alpiarça, central Portugal) document the earliest human occupation in the Lower Tagus River, well established in geomorphological and environmental terms, within the Middle Pleistocene. The Lower Palaeolithic sites were found on the T4 terrace (+26 m, a.r.b.). The oldest artefacts previously found in the LG unit, display crude bifacial forms that can be attributed to the Acheulian, with a probable age of ca. 335 to 325 ka. The T4 US unit has archaeological sites stratigraphically documenting successive phases of an evolved Acheulian, that probably date ca. 325 to 300 ka. Notably, these Lower Palaeolithic artisans were able to produce tools with different sophistication levels, simply by applying different strategies: more elaborated reduction sequences in case of bifaces and simple reduction sequences to obtain cleavers. Fig. 2. . Simplified geologic map of the Lower Tagus Cenozoic basin, adapted from the Carta Geológica de Portugal, 1/500000, 1992). The study area (comprising the Vale do Forno and Vale de Atela sites) is located on the more upstream sector of the Lower Tagus River reach IV, between Arripiado and Chamusca villages. 1 – alluvium (Holocene); 2 – terraces (Pleistocene); 3 – sands, silts and gravels (Paleogene to Pliocene); 4 – Sintra Massif (Cretaceous); 5 – limestones, marls, silts and sandstones (Mesozoic); 6 – quartzites (Ordovician); 7 – basement (Proterozoic to Palaeozoic); 8 – main fault. The main Portuguese reaches of the Tagus River are identified (I to V). The VF3 site (Milharós), containing a Final Acheulian industry, with fine and elaborated bifaces) found in a stratigraphic level located between the T4 terrace deposits and a colluvium associated with Late Pleistocene aeolian sands (32 to 12 ka), has an age younger than ca. 154 ka but much older than 32 ka. In the study area, the sedimentary units of the T4 terrace seem to record the river response to sea-level changes and climatically-driven fluctuations in sediment supply. REFERENCES Cunha P. P., Almeida N. A. C., Aubry T., Martins A. A., Murray A. S., Buylaert J.-P., Sohbati R., Raposo L., Rocha L., 2012, Records of human occupation from Pleistocene river terrace and aeolian sediments in the Arneiro depression (Lower Tejo River, central eastern Portugal). Geomorphology, vol. 165-166, pp. 78-90.

A comparison of two business cycle dating methods

We study the suggestion that Markov switching (MS) models should be used to determine cyclical turning points. A Kalman filter approximation is used to derive the dating rules implicit in such models. We compare these with dating rules in an algorithm that provides a good approximation to the chronology determined by the NBER. We find that there is very little that is attractive in the MS approach when compared with this algorithm. The most important difference relates to robustness. The MS approach depends on the validity of that statistical model. Our approach is valid in a wider range of circumstances.

Influence of historical landscapes, drainage evolution and ecological traits on patterns of genetic diversity in Southeast Asian freshwater snakehead fishes

Snakehead fishes in the family Channidae are obligate freshwater fishes represented by two extant genera, the African Parachannna and the Asian Channa. These species prefer still or slow flowing water bodies, where they are top predators that exercise high levels of parental care, have the ability to breathe air, can tolerate poor water quality, and interestingly, can aestivate or traverse terrestrial habitat in response to seasonal changes in freshwater habitat availability. These attributes suggest that snakehead fishes may possess high dispersal potential, irrespective of the terrestrial barriers that would otherwise constrain the distribution of most freshwater fishes. A number of biogeographical hypotheses have been developed to account for the modern distributions of snakehead fishes across two continents, including ancient vicariance during Gondwanan break-up, or recent colonisation tracking the formation of suitable climatic conditions. Taxonomic uncertainty also surrounds some members of the Channa genus, as geographical distributions for some taxa across southern and Southeast (SE) Asia are very large, and in one case is highly disjunct. The current study adopted a molecular genetics approach to gain an understanding of the evolution of this group of fishes, and in particular how the phylogeography of two Asian species may have been influenced by contemporary versus historical levels of dispersal and vicariance. First, a molecular phylogeny was constructed based on multiple DNA loci and calibrated with fossil evidence to provide a dated chronology of divergence events among extant species, and also within species with widespread geographical distributions. The data provide strong evidence that trans-continental distribution of the Channidae arose as a result of dispersal out of Asia and into Africa in the mid–Eocene. Among Asian Channa, deep divergence among lineages indicates that the Oligocene-Miocene boundary was a time of significant species radiation, potentially associated with historical changes in climate and drainage geomorphology. Mid-Miocene divergence among lineages suggests that a taxonomic revision is warranted for two taxa. Deep intra-specific divergence (~8Mya) was also detected between C. striata lineages that occur sympatrically in the Mekong River Basin. The study then examined the phylogeography and population structure of two major taxa, Channa striata (the chevron snakehead) and the C. micropeltes (the giant snakehead), across SE Asia. Species specific microsatellite loci were developed and used in addition to a mitochondrial DNA marker (Cyt b) to screen neutral genetic variation within and among wild populations. C. striata individuals were sampled across SE Asia (n=988), with the major focus being the Mekong Basin, which is the largest drainage basin in the region. The distributions of two divergent lineages were identified and admixture analysis showed that where they co-occur they are interbreeding, indicating that after long periods of evolution in isolation, divergence has not resulted in reproductive isolation. One lineage is predominantly confined to upland areas of northern Lao PDR to the north of the Khorat Plateau, while the other, which is more closely related to individuals from southern India, has a widespread distribution across mainland SE Asian and Sumatra. The phylogeographical pattern recovered is associated with past river networks, and high diversity and divergence among all populations sampled reveal that contemporary dispersal is very low for this taxon, even where populations occur in contiguous freshwater habitats. C. micropeltes (n=280) were also sampled from across the Mekong River Basin, focusing on the lower basin where it constitutes an important wild fishery resource. In comparison with C. striata, allelic diversity and genetic divergence among populations were extremely low, suggesting very recent colonisation of the greater Mekong region. Populations were significantly structured into at least three discrete populations in the lower Mekong. Results of this study have implications for establishing effective conservation plans for managing both species, that represent economically important wild fishery resources for the region. For C. micropeltes, it is likely that a single fisheries stock in the Tonle Sap Great Lake is being exploited by multiple fisheries operations, and future management initiatives for this species in this region will need to account for this. For C. striata, conservation of natural levels of genetic variation will require management initiatives designed to promote population persistence at very localised spatial scales, as the high level of population structuring uncovered for this species indicates that significant unique diversity is present at this fine spatial scale.

Blast atlas: a virtual observatory for genomes

Following the completion of the draft Human Genome in 2001, genomic sequence data is becoming available at an accelerating rate, fueled by advances in sequencing and computational technology. Meanwhile, large collections of astronomical and geospatial data have allowed the creation of virtual observatories, accessible throughout the world and requiring only commodity hardware. Through a combination of advances in data management, data mining and visualization, this infrastructure enables the development of new scientific and educational applications as diverse as galaxy classification and real-time tracking of earthquakes and volcanic plumes. In the present paper, we describe steps taken along a similar path towards a virtual observatory for genomes – an immersive three-dimensional visual navigation and query system for comparative genomic data.

Crystal growth from undercooling melts under strong gradients of temperatures generating in short-duration microgravity

Crystal growth of bulk CdTe in short-duration microgravity is performed by the unidirectional cooling method. The largest growth grains in microgravity samples are 4X2mm. The cooling profiles indicate undercooling melts in microgravity. Cooling melt samples in microgravity generate strong gradient of temperature due to stop thermal convections. Temperature distribution in the melt is calculated by the one-dimensional equation of heat conduction, and about 100 K-undercooling is considered to occur at the cooling surface.

Policy analysis of disaster health management in China

Humankind has been dealing with all kinds of disasters since the dawn of time. The risk and impact of disasters producing mass casualties worldwide is increasing, due partly to global warming as well as to increased population growth, increased density and the aging population. China, as a country with a large population, vast territory, and complex climatic and geographical conditions, has been plagued by all kinds of disasters. Disaster health management has traditionally been a relatively arcane discipline within public health. However, SARS, Avian Influenza, and earthquakes and floods, along with the need to be better prepared for the Olympic Games in China has brought disasters, their management and their potential for large scale health consequences on populations to the attention of the public, the government and the international community alike. As a result significant improvements were made to the disaster management policy framework, as well as changes to systems and structures to incorporate an improved disaster management focus. This involved the upgrade of the Centres for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC) throughout China to monitor and better control the health consequences particularly of infectious disease outbreaks. However, as can be seen in the Southern China Snow Storm and Wenchuan Earthquake in 2008, there remains a lack of integrated disaster management and efficient medical rescue, which has been costly in terms of economics and health for China. In the context of a very large and complex country, there is a need to better understand whether these changes have resulted in effective management of the health impacts of such incidents. To date, the health consequences of disasters, particularly in China, have not been a major focus of study. The main aim of this study is to analyse and evaluate disaster health management policy in China and in particular, its ability to effectively manage the health consequences of disasters. Flood has been selected for this study as it is a common and significant disaster type in China and throughout the world. This information will then be used to guide conceptual understanding of the health consequences of floods. A secondary aim of the study is to compare disaster health management in China and Australia as these countries differ in their length of experience in having a formalised policy response. The final aim of the study is to determine the extent to which Walt and Gilson’s (1994) model of policy explains how disaster management policy in China was developed and implemented after SARS in 2003 to the present day. This study has utilised a case study methodology. A document analysis and literature search of Chinese and English sources was undertaken to analyse and produce a chronology of disaster health management policy in China. Additionally, three detailed case studies of flood health management in China were undertaken along with three case studies in Australia in order to examine the policy response and any health consequences stemming from the floods. A total of 30 key international disaster health management experts were surveyed to identify fundamental elements and principles of a successful policy framework for disaster health management. Key policy ingredients were identified from the literature, the case-studies and the survey of experts. Walt and Gilson (1994)’s policy model that focuses on the actors, content, context and process of policy was found to be a useful model for analysing disaster health management policy development and implementation in China. This thesis is divided into four parts. Part 1 is a brief overview of the issues and context to set the scene. Part 2 examines the conceptual and operational context including the international literature, government documents and the operational environment for disaster health management in China. Part 3 examines primary sources of information to inform the analysis. This involves two key studies: • A comparative analysis of the management of floods in China and Australia • A survey of international experts in the field of disaster management so as to inform the evaluation of the policy framework in existence in China and the criteria upon which the expression of that policy could be evaluated Part 4 describes the key outcomes of this research which include: • A conceptual framework for describing the health consequences of floods • A conceptual framework for disaster health management • An evaluation of the disaster health management policy and its implementation in China. The research outcomes clearly identified that the most significant improvements are to be derived from improvements in the generic management of disasters, rather than the health aspects alone. Thus, the key findings and recommendations tend to focus on generic issues. The key findings of this research include the following: • The health consequences of floods may be described in terms of time as ‘immediate’, ‘medium term’ and ‘long term’ and also in relation to causation as ‘direct’ and ‘indirect’ consequences of the flood. These two aspects form a matrix which in turn guides management responses. • Disaster health management in China requires a more comprehensive response throughout the cycle of prevention, preparedness, response and recovery but it also requires a more concentrated effort on policy implementation to ensure the translation of the policy framework into effective incident management. • The policy framework in China is largely of international standard with a sound legislative base. In addition the development of the Centres for Disease Control and Prevention has provided the basis for a systematic approach to health consequence management. However, the key weaknesses in the current system include: o The lack of a key central structure to provide the infrastructure with vital support for policy development, implementation and evaluation. o The lack of well-prepared local response teams similar to local government based volunteer groups in Australia. • The system lacks structures to coordinate government action at the local level. The result of this is a poorly coordinated local response and lack of clarity regarding the point at which escalation of the response to higher levels of government is advisable. These result in higher levels of risk and negative health impacts. The key recommendations arising from this study are: 1. Disaster health management policy in China should be enhanced by incorporating disaster management considerations into policy development, and by requiring a disaster management risk analysis and disaster management impact statement for development proposals. 2. China should transform existing organizations to establish a central organisation similar to the Federal Emergency Management Agency (FEMA) in the USA or the Emergency Management Australia (EMA) in Australia. This organization would be responsible for leading nationwide preparedness through planning, standards development, education and incident evaluation and to provide operational support to the national and local government bodies in the event of a major incident. 3. China should review national and local plans to reflect consistency in planning, and to emphasize the advantages of the integrated planning process. 4. Enhance community resilience through community education and the development of a local volunteer organization. China should develop a national strategy which sets direction and standards in regard to education and training, and requires system testing through exercises. Other initiatives may include the development of a local volunteer capability with appropriate training to assist professional response agencies such as police and fire services in a major incident. An existing organisation such as the Communist Party may be an appropriate structure to provide this response in a cost effective manner. 5. Continue development of professional emergency services, particularly ambulance, to ensure an effective infrastructure is in place to support the emergency response in disasters. 6. Funding for disaster health management should be enhanced, not only from government, but also from other sources such as donations and insurance. It is necessary to provide a more transparent mechanism to ensure the funding is disseminated according to the needs of the people affected. 7. Emphasis should be placed on prevention and preparedness, especially on effective disaster warnings. 8. China should develop local disaster health management infrastructure utilising existing resources wherever possible. Strategies for enhancing local infrastructure could include the identification of local resources (including military resources) which could be made available to support disaster responses. It should develop operational procedures to access those resources. Implementation of these recommendations should better position China to reduce the significant health consequences experienced each year from major incidents such as floods and to provide an increased level of confidence to the community about the country’s capacity to manage such events.