An Ensemble Kalman Filter multi-tracer assimilation: Determining uncertain ocean model parameters for improved climate-carbon cycle projections

An Ensemble Kalman Filter is applied to assimilate observed tracer fields in various combinations in the Bern3D ocean model. Each tracer combination yields a set of optimal transport parameter values that are used in projections with prescribed CO2 stabilization pathways. The assimilation of temperature and salinity fields yields a too vigorous ventilation of the thermocline and the deep ocean, whereas the inclusion of CFC-11 and radiocarbon improves the representation of physical and biogeochemical tracers and of ventilation time scales. Projected peak uptake rates and cumulative uptake of CO2 by the ocean are around 20% lower for the parameters determined with CFC-11 and radiocarbon as additional target compared to those with salinity and temperature only. Higher surface temperature changes are simulated in the Greenland–Norwegian–Iceland Sea and in the Southern Ocean when CFC-11 is included in the Ensemble Kalman model tuning. These findings highlights the importance of ocean transport calibration for the design of near-term and long-term CO2 emission mitigation strategies and for climate projections.

Calculation of crystal optical properties from molecular electron density

We have recently developed a method to obtain distributed atomic polarizabilities adopting a partitioning of the molecular electron density (for example, the Quantum Theory of Atoms in Molecules, [1]), calculated with or without an applied electric field. The procedure [2] allows to obtained atomic polarizability tensors, which are perfectly exportable, because quite representative of an atom in a given functional group. Among the many applications of this idea, the calculation of crystal susceptibility is easily available, either from a rough estimation (the polarizability of the isolated molecule is used) or from a more precise estimation (the polarizability of a molecule embedded in a cluster representing the first coordination sphere is used). Lorentz factor is applied to include the long range effect of packing, which is enhancing the molecular polarizability. Simple properties like linear refractive index or the gyration tensor can be calculated at relatively low costs and with good precision. This approach is particularly useful within the field of crystal engineering of organic/organometallic materials, because it would allow a relatively easy prediction of a property as a function of the packing, thus allowing "reverse crystal engineering". Examples of some amino acid crystals and salts of amino acids [3] will be illustrated, together with other crystallographic or non-crystallographic applications. For example, the induction and dispersion energies of intermolecular interactions could be calculated with superior precision (allowing anisotropic van der Waals interactions). This could allow revision of some commonly misunderstood intermolecular interactions, like the halogen bonding (see for example the recent remarks by Stone or Gilli [4]). Moreover, the chemical reactivity of coordination complexes could be reinvestigated, by coupling the conventional analysis of the electrostatic potential (useful only in the circumstances of hard nucleophilic/electrophilic interaction) with the distributed atomic polarizability. The enhanced reactivity of coordinated organic ligands would be better appreciated. [1] R. F. W. Bader, Atoms in Molecules: A Quantum Theory. Oxford Univ. Press, 1990. [2] A. Krawczuk-Pantula, D. Pérez, K. Stadnicka, P. Macchi, Trans. Amer. Cryst. Ass. 2011, 1-25 [3] A. S. Chimpri1, M. Gryl, L. H.R. Dos Santos1, A. Krawczuk, P. Macchi Crystal Growth & Design, in the press. [4] a) A. J. Stone, J. Am. Chem. Soc. 2013, 135, 7005−7009; b) V. Bertolasi, P. Gilli, G. Gilli Crystal Growth & Design, 2013, 12, 4758-4770.

Hybrid stochastic simulations of intracellular reaction-diffusion systems.

With the observation that stochasticity is important in biological systems, chemical kinetics have begun to receive wider interest. While the use of Monte Carlo discrete event simulations most accurately capture the variability of molecular species, they become computationally costly for complex reaction-diffusion systems with large populations of molecules. On the other hand, continuous time models are computationally efficient but they fail to capture any variability in the molecular species. In this study a hybrid stochastic approach is introduced for simulating reaction-diffusion systems. We developed an adaptive partitioning strategy in which processes with high frequency are simulated with deterministic rate-based equations, and those with low frequency using the exact stochastic algorithm of Gillespie. Therefore the stochastic behavior of cellular pathways is preserved while being able to apply it to large populations of molecules. We describe our method and demonstrate its accuracy and efficiency compared with the Gillespie algorithm for two different systems. First, a model of intracellular viral kinetics with two steady states and second, a compartmental model of the postsynaptic spine head for studying the dynamics of Ca+2 and NMDA receptors.

THEORETICAL STUDIES ON THE METHODS OF RECONSTRUCTING PHYLOGENETIC TREES FROM DNA SEQUENCE DATA (MOLECULAR EVOLUTION, HOMINOID EVOLUTION, COMPUTER SIMULATION)

(1) A mathematical theory for computing the probabilities of various nucleotide configurations is developed, and the probability of obtaining the correct phylogenetic tree (model tree) from sequence data is evaluated for six phylogenetic tree-making methods (UPGMA, distance Wagner method, transformed distance method, Fitch-Margoliash's method, maximum parsimony method, and compatibility method). The number of nucleotides (m*) necessary to obtain the correct tree with a probability of 95% is estimated with special reference to the human, chimpanzee, and gorilla divergence. m* is at least 4,200, but the availability of outgroup species greatly reduces m* for all methods except UPGMA. m* increases if transitions occur more frequently than transversions as in the case of mitochondrial DNA. (2) A new tree-making method called the neighbor-joining method is proposed. This method is applicable either for distance data or character state data. Computer simulation has shown that the neighbor-joining method is generally better than UPGMA, Farris' method, Li's method, and modified Farris method on recovering the true topology when distance data are used. A related method, the simultaneous partitioning method, is also discussed. (3) The maximum likelihood (ML) method for phylogeny reconstruction under the assumption of both constant and varying evolutionary rates is studied, and a new algorithm for obtaining the ML tree is presented. This method gives a tree similar to that obtained by UPGMA when constant evolutionary rate is assumed, whereas it gives a tree similar to that obtained by the maximum parsimony tree and the neighbor-joining method when varying evolutionary rate is assumed. ^

Volcanic forcing for climate modeling: a new microphysics-based data set covering years 1600–present

As the understanding and representation of the impacts of volcanic eruptions on climate have improved in the last decades, uncertainties in the stratospheric aerosol forcing from large eruptions are now linked not only to visible optical depth estimates on a global scale but also to details on the size, latitude and altitude distributions of the stratospheric aerosols. Based on our understanding of these uncertainties, we propose a new model-based approach to generating a volcanic forcing for general circulation model (GCM) and chemistry–climate model (CCM) simulations. This new volcanic forcing, covering the 1600–present period, uses an aerosol microphysical model to provide a realistic, physically consistent treatment of the stratospheric sulfate aerosols. Twenty-six eruptions were modeled individually using the latest available ice cores aerosol mass estimates and historical data on the latitude and date of eruptions. The evolution of aerosol spatial and size distribution after the sulfur dioxide discharge are hence characterized for each volcanic eruption. Large variations are seen in hemispheric partitioning and size distributions in relation to location/date of eruptions and injected SO2 masses. Results for recent eruptions show reasonable agreement with observations. By providing these new estimates of spatial distributions of shortwave and long-wave radiative perturbations, this volcanic forcing may help to better constrain the climate model responses to volcanic eruptions in the 1600–present period. The final data set consists of 3-D values (with constant longitude) of spectrally resolved extinction coefficients, single scattering albedos and asymmetry factors calculated for different wavelength bands upon request. Surface area densities for heterogeneous chemistry are also provided.

Polycyclic aromatic compounds (PAHs and oxygenated PAHs) and trace metals in fish species from Ghana (West Africa): Bioaccumulation and health risk assessment

We report the concentrations of 28 PAHs, 15 oxygenated PAHs (OPAHs) and 11 trace metals/metalloids (As, Cd, Co, Cr, Cu, Fe, Mn, Ni, Pb, Se, and Zn) in muscle and gut + gill tissues of demersal fishes (Drapane africana, Cynoglossus senegalensis and Pomadasys peroteti) from three locations along the coast of the Gulf of Guinea (Ghana). The concentrations of ∑ 28PAHs in muscle tissues averaged 192 ng g− 1 dw (range: 71–481 ng g− 1 dw) and were not statistically different between locations. The concentrations of ∑ 28 PAHs were higher in guts + gills than in muscles. The PAH composition pattern was dominated by low molecular weight compounds (naphthalene, alkyl-naphthalenes and phenanthrene). All fish tissues had benzo[a]pyrene concentrations lower than the EU limit for food safety. Excess cancer risk from consumption of some fish was higher than the guideline value of 1 × 10− 6. The concentrations of ∑ 15 OPAHs in fish muscles averaged 422 ng g− 1 dw (range: 28–1715 ng g− 1dw). The ∑ 15 OPAHs/∑ 16 US-EPA PAHs concentration ratio was > 1 in 68% of the fish muscles and 100% of guts + gills. The log-transformed concentrations of PAHs and OPAHs in muscles, guts + gills were significantly (p < 0.05) correlated with their octanol–water partitioning coefficients, strongly suggesting that equilibrium partitioning from water/sediment into fish tissue was the main mechanism of bioaccumulation. The trace metal concentrations in the fish tissues were in the medium range when compared to fish from other parts of the world. The concentrations of some trace metals (Cd, Cu, Fe, Mn, Zn) were higher in guts + gills than in muscle tissues. The target hazard quotients for metals were < 1 and did not indicate a danger to the local population. We conclude that the health risk arising from the consumption of the studied fish (due to their PAHs and trace metals content) is minimal.

Polycyclic aromatic hydrocarbons (PAHs) and their polar derivatives (oxygenated PAHs, azaarenes) in soils along a climosequence in Argentina

We evaluated the effects of soil properties and climate on concentrations of parent and oxygenated polycyclic aromatic compounds (PAHs and OPAHs) and azaarenes (AZAs) in topsoil and subsoil at 20 sites along a 2100-km north (N)–south (S) transect in Argentina. The concentrations of Σ29PAHs, Σ15OPAHs and Σ4AZAs ranged 2.4–38 ng g− 1, 0.05–124 ng g− 1 and not detected to 0.97 ng g− 1, respectively. With decreasing anthropogenic influence from N to S, low molecular weight PAHs increasingly dominated. The octanol–water partitioning coefficients correlated significantly with the subsoil to topsoil concentration ratios of most compounds suggesting leaching as the main transport process. Organic C concentrations correlated significantly with those of many compounds typical for atmosphere–soil partitioning. Lighter OPAHs were mainly detected in the S suggesting biological sources and heavier OPAHs in the N suggesting a closer association with parent-PAHs. Decreasing alkyl-naphthalene/naphthalene and 9,10-anthraquinone (9,10-ANQ)/anthracene ratios from N to S indicated that 9,10-ANQ might have originated from low-temperature combustion.

Metamorphism, Transient Mid-Crustal Rheology, Strain Localization and the Exhumation of High-Grade Metamorphic Rocks

We present a series of three-dimensional numerical models investigating the effects of metamorphic strengthening and weakening on the geodynamic evolution of convergent orogens that are constrained by observations from an exposed mid-crustal section in the New England Appalachians. The natural mid-crustal section records evidence for spatially and temporally variable mid-crustal strength as a function of metamorphic grade during prograde polymetamorphism. Our models address changes in strain rate partitioning and topographic uplift as a function of strengthening/weakening in the middle crust, as well as the resultant changes in deformation kinematics and potential exhumation patterns of high-grade metamorphic rock. Results suggest that strengthening leads to strain rate partitioning around the zone and suppressed topographic uplift rates whereas weakening leads to strain rate partitioning into the zone and enhanced topographic uplift rates. Deformation kinematics recorded in the orogen are also affected by strengthening/weakening, with complete reversals in shear sense occurring as a function of strengthening/weakening without changes in plate boundary kinematics.

Predicting the "usefulness" of 5-ALA-derived tumor fluorescence for fluorescence-guided resections in pediatric brain tumors: a European survey.

BACKGROUND Five-aminolevulinic acid (Gliolan, medac, Wedel, Germany, 5-ALA) is approved for fluorescence-guided resections of adult malignant gliomas. Case reports indicate that 5-ALA can be used for children, yet no prospective study has been conducted as of yet. As a basis for a study, we conducted a survey among certified European Gliolan users to collect data on their experiences with children. METHODS Information on patient characteristics, MRI characteristics of tumors, histology, fluorescence qualities, and outcomes were requested. Surgeons were further asked to indicate whether fluorescence was "useful", i.e., leading to changes in surgical strategy or identification of residual tumor. Recursive partitioning analysis (RPA) was used for defining cohorts with high or low likelihoods for useful fluorescence. RESULTS Data on 78 patients <18 years of age were submitted by 20 centers. Fluorescence was found useful in 12 of 14 glioblastomas (85 %), four of five anaplastic astrocytomas (60 %), and eight of ten ependymomas grades II and III (80 %). Fluorescence was found inconsistently useful in PNETs (three of seven; 43 %), gangliogliomas (two of five; 40 %), medulloblastomas (two of eight, 25 %) and pilocytic astrocytomas (two of 13; 15 %). RPA of pre-operative factors showed tumors with supratentorial location, strong contrast enhancement and first operation to have a likelihood of useful fluorescence of 64.3 %, as opposed to infratentorial tumors with first surgery (23.1 %). CONCLUSIONS Our survey demonstrates 5-ALA as being used in pediatric brain tumors. 5-ALA may be especially useful for contrast-enhancing supratentorial tumors. These data indicate controlled studies to be necessary and also provide a basis for planning such a study.

Tracking individual membrane proteins and their biochemistry: The power of direct observation

The advent of single molecule fluorescence microscopy has allowed experimental molecular biophysics and biochemistry to transcend traditional ensemble measurements, where the behavior of individual proteins could not be precisely sampled. The recent explosion in popularity of new super-resolution and super-localization techniques coupled with technical advances in optical designs and fast highly sensitive cameras with single photon sensitivity and millisecond time resolution have made it possible to track key motions, reactions, and interactions of individual proteins with high temporal resolution and spatial resolution well beyond the diffraction limit. Within the purview of membrane proteins and ligand gated ion channels (LGICs), these outstanding advances in single molecule microscopy allow for the direct observation of discrete biochemical states and their fluctuation dynamics. Such observations are fundamentally important for understanding molecular-level mechanisms governing these systems. Examples reviewed here include the effects of allostery on the stoichiometry of ligand binding in the presence of fluorescent ligands; the observation of subdomain partitioning of membrane proteins due to microenvironment effects; and the use of single particle tracking experiments to elucidate characteristics of membrane protein diffusion and the direct measurement of thermodynamic properties, which govern the free energy landscape of protein dimerization. The review of such characteristic topics represents a snapshot of efforts to push the boundaries of fluorescence microscopy of membrane proteins to the absolute limit.

Parallel adaptations to nectarivory in parrots, key innovations and the diversification of the Loriinae

Specialization to nectarivory is associated with radiations within different bird groups, including parrots. One of them, the Australasian lories, were shown to be unexpectedly species rich. Their shift to nectarivory may have created an ecological opportunity promoting species proliferation. Several morphological specializations of the feeding tract to nectarivory have been described for parrots. However, they have never been assessed in a quantitative framework considering phylogenetic nonindependence. Using a phylogenetic comparative approach with broad taxon sampling and 15 continuous characters of the digestive tract, we demonstrate that nectarivorous parrots differ in several traits from the remaining parrots. These trait-changes indicate phenotype–environment correlations and parallel evolution, and may reflect adaptations to feed effectively on nectar. Moreover, the diet shift was associated with significant trait shifts at the base of the radiation of the lories, as shown by an alternative statistical approach. Their diet shift might be considered as an evolutionary key innovation which promoted significant non-adaptive lineage diversification through allopatric partitioning of the same new niche. The lack of increased rates of cladogenesis in other nectarivorous parrots indicates that evolutionary innovations need not be associated one-to-one with diversification events.

Glacial–interglacial temperature change in the tropical West Pacific: A comparison of stalagmite-based paleo-thermometers

In the tropics, geochemical records from stalagmites have so far mainly been used to qualitatively reconstruct changes in precipitation, but several new methods to reconstruct past temperatures from stalagmite material have emerged recently: i) liquide vapor homogenization of fluid inclusion water ii) noble gas concentrations in fluid inclusion water, iii) the partitioning of oxygen isotopes between fluid inclusion water and calcite, and iv) the abundance of the 13C18O16O(‘clumped’) isotopologue in calcite. We present, for the first time, a direct comparison of these four paleo-thermometers by applying them to a fossil stalagmite covering nearly two glaciale interglacial cycles (Marine Isotope Stages (MIS) 12 e 9) and to two modern stalagmites, all from northern Borneo. The temperature estimates from the different methods agree in most cases within errors for both the old and recent samples; reconstructed formation temperatures of the recent samples match within 2-sigma errors with measured cave temperatures. However, slight but systematic deviations are observed between noble gas and liquide vapor homogenization temperatures. Whereas the temperature sensitivity of fluid inclusion d18O and clumped isotopes is currently debated, we find that the calibration of Tremaine et al. (2011) for fluid inclusion d18O and a synthetic calcite-based clumped isotope calibration (Ziegler et al., in prep.) yield temperature estimates consistent with the other methods. All methods (with the potential exception of clumped isotopes) show excellent agreement on the amplitude of glaciale interglacial temperature change, indicating temperature shifts of 4-5 C°. This amplitude is similar to the amplitude of Mg/Ca-based regional sea surface temperature records, when correcting for sea level driven changes in cave elevation. Our reconstruction of tropical temperature evolution over the time period from 440 to 320 thousand years ago (ka) adds support to the view that climate sensitivity to varying greenhouse forcing is substantial also in the deep tropics.

The behaviour of incompatible elements during hydrous melting of metasomatized peridotite at 4–6 GPa and 1000 °C–1200 °C

Trace element behavior during hydrous melting of a metasomatized garnet–peridotite was examined at pressures of 4–6 GPa and temperatures of 1000 °C–1200 °C, conditions appropriate for fluid penetrating the mantle wedge atop the subducting slab. Experiments were performed in a rocking multi-anvil apparatus using a diamond-trap setup. The compositions of the fluid and melt phases were measured using the cryogenic LA-ICP-MS technique. The water-saturated solidus of the K-lherzolite composition is located between 900 °C and 1000 °C at 4 GPa and between 1000 °C and 1100 °C at 5 and 6 GPa. The partition coefficients between fluid or melt and clinopyroxene reveal an asymmetric MREE trough with a minimum at Dy. The clinopyroxene in equilibrium with aqueous fluids is characterized by DUfluid–cpx > DThfluid–cpx while DUmelt–cpx tends to be similar to DThmelt–cpx. The partition coefficients between fluid or melt and garnet reveal very strong light to heavy REE fractionation, DLa/DLu from 95 (hydrous melt) to 1600 (aqueous fluid). The LILE are highly incompatible with partition coefficients > 50. The behavior of HFSE are decoupled, with DZr,Hf close to 1 while DNb,Ta > 10. Garnet is characterized by DUmelt/fluid–garnet < DThmelt/fluid–garnet. A comparison of our experimental partitioning results for trivalent cations as well as the results from the literature and the calculations carried out using the lattice strain model adapted to the presence of water in the bulk system indicates that H2O in the fluid or melt phase has a prominent effect on trace element partitioning. Garnet in mantle rocks in equilibrium with an aqueous fluid is characterized by significantly higher Do(3 +) for REE in the X site of the garnet compared with the partitioning values of the optimal cation in garnet in equilibrium with hydrous melts. Our data show for the first time that the change in the nature of the mobile phase (fluid vs. melt) does affect the affinities of trace elements into the garnet crystal at conditions below the second critical endpoint of the system. The same also applies for clinopyroxene, although this is less clear. Consequently, our new data allow for refinements in predictive modeling of element transfer from the slab to the mantle wedge and of possible compositions of metasomatized mantle that sources OIB magmatism.

Lateglacial and Holocene vegetation belts in the Pirin Mountains (southwestern Bulgaria)

Pollen stratigraphy of a core 270 cm long from Lake Dalgoto at 2310 m in the Northern Pirin Mountains, southern Bulgaria, was treated by optimal partitioning and compared to a broken-stick model to reveal statistically significant pollen zones. The vegetational reconstructions presented here are based on pollen percentages and pollen influx, on comparisons of modern and fossil pollen spectra, and on macrofossil dates from other sites in the mountains. During the Younger Dryas (11000–10200 14C yr BP), an open xerophytic herb vegetation with Artemisia and Chenopodiaceae was widely developed around the lake. Deciduous trees growing at lower elevations contributed to the pollen rain deposited at the higher-elevation sampling sites. Specifically, from 10200 to 8500 yr BP, Quercus, Ulmus, Tilia and Betula expanded rapidly at low and intermediate elevations, and between 8500 and 6500 yr BP they extended to higher elevations close to the upper forest limit, which was formed by Betula pendula at about 1900 m. Coniferous species were limited in the region at this time. After 6500 yr BP, the expansion of conifers (Pinus peuce, P. sylvestris, P. mugo, Abies alba) at high elevations forced the deciduous trees downward. Between 6500 and 3000 yr BP, the forest limit at 2200 m was formed by P. peuce, and A. alba had its maximum vertical range up to 1900 m. Later the abundance and vertical range of P. peuce and A. alba were reduced. After 3000 yr BP, Picea expanded.

Natural and anthropogenic methane fluxes in Eurasia: a mesoscale quantification by generalized atmospheric inversion

Eight surface observation sites providing quasi-continuous measurements of atmospheric methane mixingratios have been operated since the mid-2000’s in Siberia. For the first time in a single work, we assimilate 1 year of these in situ observations in an atmospheric inversion. Our objective is to quantify methane surface fluxes from anthropogenic and wetland sources at the mesoscale in the Siberian lowlands for the year 2010. To do so, we first inquire about the way the inversion uses the observations and the way the fluxes are constrained by the observation sites. As atmospheric inver- sions at the mesoscale suffer from mis-quantified sources of uncertainties, we follow recent innovations in inversion techniques and use a new inversion approach which quantifies the uncertainties more objectively than the previous inversion systems. We find that, due to errors in the representation of the atmospheric transport and redundant pieces of information, only one observation every few days is found valuable by the inversion. The remaining high-resolution quasi-continuous signal is representative of very local emission patterns difficult to analyse with a mesoscale system. An analysis of the use of information by the inversion also reveals that the observation sites constrain methane emissions within a radius of 500 km. More observation sites than the ones currently in operation are then necessary to constrain the whole Siberian lowlands. Still, the fluxes within the constrained areas are quantified with objectified uncertainties. Finally, the tolerance intervals for posterior methane fluxes are of roughly 20 % (resp. 50 %) of the fluxes for anthropogenic (resp. wetland) sources. About 50–70 % of Siberian lowlands emissions are constrained by the inversion on average on an annual basis. Extrapolating the figures on the constrained areas to the whole Siberian lowlands, we find a regional methane budget of 5–28 TgCH4 for the year 2010, i.e. 1–5 % of the global methane emissions. As very few in situ observations are available in the region of interest, observations of methane total columns from the Greenhouse Gas Observing SATellite (GOSAT) are tentatively used for the evaluation of the inversion results, but they exhibit only a marginal signal from the fluxes within the region of interest.