Non-radial solar wind flows induced by the motion of interplanetary coronal mass ejections

A survey of the non-radial flows (NRFs) during nearly five years of interplanetary observations revealed the average non-radial speed of the solar wind flows to be �30 km/s, with approximately one-half of the large (>100 km/s) NRFs associated with ICMEs. Conversely, the average non-radial flow speed upstream of all ICMEs is �100 km/s, with just over one-third preceded by large NRFs. These upstream flow deflections are analysed in the context of the large-scale structure of the driving ICME. We chose 5 magnetic clouds with relatively uncomplicated upstream flow deflections. Using variance analysis it was possible to infer the local axis orientation, and to qualitatively estimate the point of interception of the spacecraft with the ICME. For all 5 events the observed upstream flows were in agreement with the point of interception predicted by variance analysis. Thus we conclude that the upstream flow deflections in these events are in accord with the current concept of the large scale structure of an ICME: a curved axial loop connected to the Sun, bounded by a curved (though not necessarily circular)cross section.

Are cold winters in Europe associated with low solar activity?

Solar activity during the current sunspot minimum has fallen to levels unknown since the start of the 20th century. The Maunder minimum (about 1650–1700) was a prolonged episode of low solar activity which coincided with more severe winters in the United Kingdom and continental Europe. Motivated by recent relatively cold winters in the UK, we investigate the possible connection with solar activity. We identify regionally anomalous cold winters by detrending the Central England temperature (CET) record using reconstructions of the northern hemisphere mean temperature. We show that cold winter excursions from the hemispheric trend occur more commonly in the UK during low solar activity, consistent with the solar influence on the occurrence of persistent blocking events in the eastern Atlantic. We stress that this is a regional and seasonal effect relating to European winters and not a global effect. Average solar activity has declined rapidly since 1985 and cosmogenic isotopes suggest an 8% chance of a return to Maunder minimum conditions within the next 50 years (Lockwood 2010 Proc. R. Soc. A 466 303–29): the results presented here indicate that, despite hemispheric warming, the UK and Europe could experience more cold winters than during recent decades.

Solar modulation in surface atmospheric electricity

The solar wind modulates the flux of galactic cosmic rays impinging on Earth inversely with solar activity. Cosmic ray ionisation is the major source of air’s electrical conductivity over the oceans and well above the continents. Differential solar modulation of the cosmic ray energy spectrum modifies the cosmic ray ionisation at different latitudes,varying the total atmospheric columnar conductance. This redistributes current flow in the global atmospheric electrical circuit, including the local vertical current density and the related surface potential gradient. Surface vertical current density and potential gradient measurements made independently at Lerwick Observatory,Shetland,from 1978 to 1985 are compared with modelled changes in cosmic ray ionisation arising from solar activity changes. Both the lower troposphere atmospheric electricity quantities are significantly increased at cosmic ray maximum(solar minimum),with a proportional change greater than that of the cosmic ray change.

Solar change and climate: an update in the light of the current exceptional solar minimum

Solar outputs during the current solar minimum are setting record low values for the space age. Evidence is here reviewed that this is part of a decline in solar activity from a grand solar maximum and that the Sun has returned to a state that last prevailed in 1924. Recent research into what this means, and does not mean, for climate change is reviewed.

Top-down solar modulation of climate: evidence for centennial-scale change

During the descent into the recent ‘exceptionally’ low solar minimum, observations have revealed a larger change in solar UV emissions than seen at the same phase of previous solar cycles. This is particularly true at wavelengths responsible for stratospheric ozone production and heating. This implies that ‘top-down’ solar modulation could be a larger factor in long-term tropospheric change than previously believed, many climate models allowing only for the ‘bottom-up’ effect of the less-variable visible and infrared solar emissions. We present evidence for long-term drift in solar UV irradiance, which is not found in its commonly used proxies. In addition, we find that both stratospheric and tropospheric winds and temperatures show stronger regional variations with those solar indices that do show long-term trends. A top-down climate effect that shows long-term drift (and may also be out of phase with the bottom-up solar forcing) would change the spatial response patterns and would mean that climate-chemistry models that have sufficient resolution in the stratosphere would become very important for making accurate regional/seasonal climate predictions. Our results also provide a potential explanation of persistent palaeoclimate results showing solar influence on regional or local climate indicators.

Intermittent release of transients in the slow solar wind: 2. In situ evidence

In paper 1, we showed that the Heliospheric Imager (HI) instruments on the pair of NASA STEREO spacecraft can be used to image the streamer belt and, in particular, the variability of the slow solar wind which originates near helmet streamers. The observation of intense intermittent transient outflow by HI implies that the corresponding in situ observations of the slow solar wind and corotating interaction regions (CIRs) should contain many signatures of transients. In the present paper, we compare the HI observations with in situ measurements from the STEREO and ACE spacecraft. Analysis of the solar wind ion, magnetic field, and suprathermal electron flux measurements from the STEREO spacecraft reveals the presence of both closed and partially disconnected interplanetary magnetic field lines permeating the slow solar wind. We predict that one of the transients embedded within the second CIR (CIR‐D in paper 1) should impact the near‐Earth ACE spacecraft. ACE measurements confirm the presence of a transient at the time of CIR passage; the transient signature includes helical magnetic fields and bidirectional suprathermal electrons. On the same day, a strahl electron dropout is observed at STEREO‐B, correlated with the passage of a high plasma beta structure. Unlike ACE, STEREO‐B observes the transient a few hours ahead of the CIR. STEREO‐A, STEREO‐B, and ACE spacecraft observe very different slow solar wind properties ahead of and during the CIR analyzed in this paper, which we associate with the intermittent release of transients.

Intermittent release of transients in the slow solar wind: 1. Remote sensing observations

The Heliospheric Imager (HI) instruments on board the STEREO spacecraft are used to analyze the solar wind during August and September 2007. We show how HI can be used to image the streamer belt and, in particular, the variability of the slow solar wind which originates inside and in the vicinity of the streamer belt. Intermittent mass flows are observed in HI difference images, streaming out along the extension of helmet streamers. These flows can appear very differently in images: plasma distributed on twisted flux ropes, V‐shaped structures, or “blobs.” The variety of these transient features may highlight the richness of phenomena that could occur near helmet streamers: emergence of flux ropes, reconnection of magnetic field lines at the tip of helmet streamers, or disconnection of open magnetic field lines. The plasma released with these transient events forms part of the solar wind in the higher corona; HI observations show that these transients are frequently entrained by corotating interaction regions (CIRs), leading to the formation of larger, brighter plasma structures in HI images. This entrainment is used to estimate the trajectory of these plasma ejecta. In doing so, we demonstrate that successive transients can be entrained by the same CIR in the high corona if they emanate from the same corotating source. Some parts of the streamers are more effective sources of transients than others. Surprisingly, evidence is given for the outflow of a recurring twisted magnetic structure, suggesting that the emergence of flux ropes can be recurrent.

The rise and fall of open solar flux during the current grand solar maximum

We use geomagnetic activity data to study the rise and fall over the past century of the solar wind flow speed VSW, the interplanetary magnetic field strength B, and the open solar flux FS. Our estimates include allowance for the kinematic effect of longitudinal structure in the solar wind flow speed. As well as solar cycle variations, all three parameters show a long-term rise during the first half of the 20th century followed by peaks around 1955 and 1986 and then a recent decline. Cosmogenic isotope data reveal that this constitutes a grand maximum of solar activity which began in 1920, using the definition that such grand maxima are when 25-year averages of the heliospheric modulation potential exceeds 600 MV. Extrapolating the linear declines seen in all three parameters since 1985, yields predictions that the grand maximum will end in the years 2013, 2014, or 2027 using VSW, FS, or B, respectively. These estimates are consistent with predictions based on the probability distribution of the durations of past grand solar maxima seen in cosmogenic isotope data. The data contradict any suggestions of a floor to the open solar flux: we show that the solar minimum open solar flux, kinematically corrected to allow for the excess flux effect, has halved over the past two solar cycles.

A solar storm observed from the Sun to Venus using the STEREO, Venus Express, and MESSENGER spacecraft

The suite of SECCHI optical imaging instruments on the STEREO-A spacecraft is used to track a solar storm, consisting of several coronal mass ejections (CMEs) and other coronal loops, as it propagates from the Sun into the heliosphere during May 2007. The 3-D propagation path of the largest interplanetary CME (ICME) is determined from the observations made by the SECCHI Heliospheric Imager (HI) on STEREO-A (HI-1/2A). Two parts of the CME are tracked through the SECCHI images, a bright loop and a V-shaped feature located at the rear of the event. We show that these two structures could be the result of line-of-sight integration of the light scattered by electrons located on a single flux rope. In addition to being imaged by HI, the CME is observed simultaneously by the plasma and magnetic field experiments on the Venus Express and MESSENGER spacecraft. The imaged loop and V-shaped structure bound, as expected, the flux rope observed in situ. The SECCHI images reveal that the leading loop-like structure propagated faster than the V-shaped structure, and a decrease in in situ CME speed occurred during the passage of the flux rope.We interpret this as the result of the continuous radial expansion of the flux rope as it progressed outward through the interplanetary medium. An expansion speed in the radial direction of ~30 km s-1 is obtained directly from the SECCHI-HI images and is in agreement with the difference in speed of the two structures observed in situ. This paper shows that the flux rope location can be determined from white light images, which could have important space weather applications.

A multispacecraft analysis of a small-scale transient entrained by solar wind streams

The images taken by the Heliospheric Imagers (HIs), part of the SECCHI imaging package onboard the pair of STEREO spacecraft, provide information on the radial and latitudinal evolution of the plasma compressed inside corotating interaction regions (CIRs). A plasma density wave imaged by the HI instrument onboard STEREO-B was found to propagate towards STEREO-A, enabling a comparison between simultaneous remotesensing and in situ observations of its structure to be performed. In situ measurements made by STEREO-A show that the plasma density wave is associated with the passage of a CIR. The magnetic field compressed after the CIR stream interface (SI) is found to have a planar distribution. Minimum variance analysis of the magnetic field vectors shows that the SI is inclined at 54° to the orbital plane of the STEREO-A spacecraft. This inclination of the CIR SI is comparable to the inclination of the associated plasma density wave observed by HI. A small-scale magnetic cloud with a flux rope topology and radial extent of 0.08 AU is also embedded prior to the SI. The pitch-angle distribution of suprathermal electrons measured by the STEREO-A SWEA instrument shows that an open magnetic field topology in the cloud replaced the heliospheric current sheet locally. These observations confirm that HI observes CIRs in difference images when a small-scale transient is caught up in the compression region.

Solar induced climate effects

Solar electromagnetic radiation powers Earth’s climate system and, consequently, it is often naively assumed that changes in this solar output must be responsible for changes in Earth’s climate. However, the Sun is close to a blackbody radiator and so emits according to its surface temperature and the huge thermal time constant of the outer part of the Sun limits the variability in surface temperature and hence output. As a result, on all timescales of interest, changes in total power output are limited to small changes in effective surface temperature (associated with magnetic fields) and potential, although as yet undetected, solar radius variations. Larger variations are seen in the UV part of the spectrum which is emitted from the lower solar atmosphere (the chromosphere) and which influences Earth’s stratosphere. There is interest in“top-down” mechanisms whereby solar UV irradiance modulates stratospheric temperatures and winds which, in turn, may influence the underlying troposphere where Earth’s climate and weather reside. This contrasts with “bottom-up” effects in which the small total solar irradiance (dominated by the visible and near-IR) variations cause surface temperature changes which drive atmospheric circulations. In addition to these electromagnetic outputs, the Sun modulates energetic particle fluxes incident on the Earth. Solar Energetic Particles (SEP) are emitted by solar flares and from the shock fronts ahead of supersonic (and super-Alfvenic) ejections of material from the solar atmosphere. These SEPs enhance the destruction of polar stratospheric ozone which could be an additional form of top-down climate forcing. Even more energetic are Galactic Cosmic Rays (GCRs). These particles are not generated by the Sun, rather they originate at the shock fronts emanating from violent galactic events such as supernovae explosions; however, the expansion of the solar magnetic field into interplanetary space means that the Sun modulates the number of GCRs reaching Earth. These play a key role in enabling Earth’s global electric (thunderstorm) circuit and it has been proposed that they also modulate the formation of clouds. Both electromagnetic and corpuscular solar effects are known to vary over the solar magnetic cycle which is typically between 10 and 14 yrs in length (with an average close to 11 yrs). The solar magnetic field polarity at any one phase of one of these activity cycles is opposite to that at the same phase of the next cycle and this influences some phenomena, for example GCRs, which therefore show a 22 yr (“Hale”) cycle on average. Other phenomena, such as irradiance modulation, do not depend on the polarity of the magnetic field and so show only the basic 11-yr activity cycle. However, any effects on climate are much more significant for solar drifts over centennial timescales. This chapter discusses and evaluates potential effects on Earth’s climate system of variations in these solar inputs. Because of the great variety of proposed mechanisms, the wide range of timescales studied (from days to millennia) and the many debates (often triggered by the application of inadequate statistical methods), the literature on this subject is vast, complex, divergent and rapidly changing: consequently the number of references cited in this review is very large (yet still only a small fraction of the total).

Enhanced signature of solar variability in Eurasian winter climate

We demonstrate that a new geomagnetic index of solar variability exhibits stronger correlations with atmospheric circulation variations than conventional measures. The circulation anomalies are particularly enhanced over the North Atlantic / Eurasian sector, where there are large changes in the occurrence of blocking and the winter mean surface temperature differs by several degrees between high- and low-solar terciles. The relationship is also simpler, being largely linear between high- and low-solar winters. While the circulation anomalies strongly resemble the North Atlantic Oscillation they also extend deeper into Eurasia, in a distinct signature which may be useful for the detection and attribution of observed changes and also the identification of dynamical mechanisms.

Solar influences on climate

Understanding the influence of solar variability on the Earth’s climate requires knowledge of solar variability, solar-terrestrial interactions and the mechanisms determining the response of the Earth’s climate system. We provide a summary of our current understanding in each of these three areas. Observations and mechanisms for the Sun's variability are described, including solar irradiance variations on both decadal and centennial timescales and their relation to galactic cosmic rays. Corresponding observations of variations of the Earth’s climate on associated timescales are described, including variations in ozone, temperatures, winds, clouds, precipitation and regional modes of variability such as the monsoons and the North Atlantic Oscillation. A discussion of the available solar and climate proxies is provided. Mechanisms proposed to explain these climate observations are described, including the effects of variations in solar irradiance and of charged particles. Finally, the contribution of solar variations to recent observations of global climate change are discussed.

Recent oppositely directed trends in solar climate forcings and the global mean surface air temperature. II. Different reconstructions of the total solar irradiance variation and dependence on response time scale

We have previously placed the solar contribution to recent global warming in context using observations and without recourse to climate models. It was shown that all solar forcings of climate have declined since 1987. The present paper extends that analysis to include the effects of the various time constants with which the Earth’s climate system might react to solar forcing. The solar input waveform over the past 100 years is defined using observed and inferred galactic cosmic ray fluxes, valid for either a direct effect of cosmic rays on climate or an effect via their known correlation with total solar irradiance (TSI), or for a combination of the two. The implications, and the relative merits, of the various TSI composite data series are discussed and independent tests reveal that the PMOD composite used in our previous paper is the most realistic. Use of the ACRIM composite, which shows a rise in TSI over recent decades, is shown to be inconsistent with most published evidence for solar influences on pre-industrial climate. The conclusions of our previous paper, that solar forcing has declined over the past 20 years while surface air temperatures have continued to rise, are shown to apply for the full range of potential time constants for the climate response to the variations in the solar forcings.

Recent changes in solar outputs and the global mean surface temperature. III. Analysis of contributions to global mean air surface temperature rise

A multivariate fit to the variation in global mean surface air temperature anomaly over the past half century is presented. The fit procedure allows for the effect of response time on the waveform, amplitude and lag of each radiative forcing input, and each is allowed to have its own time constant. It is shown that the contribution of solar variability to the temperature trend since 1987 is small and downward; the best estimate is -1.3% and the 2sigma confidence level sets the uncertainty range of -0.7 to -1.9%. The result is the same if one quantifies the solar variation using galactic cosmic ray fluxes (for which the analysis can be extended back to 1953) or the most accurate total solar irradiance data composite. The rise in the global mean air surface temperatures is predominantly associated with a linear increase that represents the combined effects of changes in anthropogenic well-mixed greenhouse gases and aerosols, although, in recent decades, there is also a considerable contribution by a relative lack of major volcanic eruptions. The best estimate is that the anthropogenic factors contribute 75% of the rise since 1987, with an uncertainty range (set by the 2sigma confidence level using an AR(1) noise model) of 49–160%; thus, the uncertainty is large, but we can state that at least half of the temperature trend comes from the linear term and that this term could explain the entire rise. The results are consistent with the intergovernmental panel on climate change (IPCC) estimates of the changes in radiative forcing (given for 1961–1995) and are here combined with those estimates to find the response times, equilibrium climate sensitivities and pertinent heat capacities (i.e. the depth into the oceans to which a given radiative forcing variation penetrates) of the quasi-periodic (decadal-scale) input forcing variations. As shown by previous studies, the decadal-scale variations do not penetrate as deeply into the oceans as the longer term drifts and have shorter response times. Hence, conclusions about the response to century-scale forcing changes (and hence the associated equilibrium climate sensitivity and the temperature rise commitment) cannot be made from studies of the response to shorter period forcing changes.