Projected changes in medicanes in the HadGEM3 N512 high-resolution global climate model

Medicanes or “Mediterranean hurricanes” represent a rare and physically unique type of Mediterranean mesoscale cyclone. There are similarities with tropical cyclones with regard to their development (based on the thermodynamical disequilibrium between the warm sea and the overlying troposphere) and their kinematic and thermodynamical properties (medicanes are intense vortices with a warm core and even a cloud-free eye). Although medicanes are smaller and their wind speeds are lower than in tropical cyclones, the severity of their winds can cause substantial damage to islands and coastal areas. Concern about how human-induced climate change will affect extreme events is increasing. This includes the future impacts on medicanes due to the warming of the Mediterranean waters and the projected changes in regional atmospheric circulation. However, most global climate models do not have high enough spatial resolution to adequately represent small features such as medicanes. In this study, a cyclone tracking algorithm is applied to high resolution global climate model data with a horizontal grid resolution of approximately 25 km over the Mediterranean region. After a validation of the climatology of general Mediterranean mesoscale cyclones, changes in medicanes are determined using climate model experiments with present and future forcing. The magnitude of the changes in the winds, frequency and location of medicanes is assessed. While no significant changes in the total number of Mediterranean mesoscale cyclones are found, medicanes tend to decrease in number but increase in intensity. The model simulation suggests that medicanes tend to form more frequently in the Gulf of Lion–Genoa and South of Sicily.

Sahel decadal rainfall variability and the role of model horizontal resolution

Substantial low-frequency rainfall fluctuations occurred in the Sahel throughout the twentieth century, causing devastating drought. Modeling these low-frequency rainfall fluctuations has remained problematic for climate models for many years. Here we show using a combination of state-of-the-art rainfall observations and high-resolution global climate models that changes in organized heavy rainfall events carry most of the rainfall variability in the Sahel at multiannual to decadal time scales. Ability to produce intense, organized convection allows climate models to correctly simulate the magnitude of late-twentieth century rainfall change, underlining the importance of model resolution. Increasing model resolution allows a better coupling between large-scale circulation changes and regional rainfall processes over the Sahel. These results provide a strong basis for developing more reliable and skilful long-term predictions of rainfall (seasons to years) which could benefit many sectors in the region by allowing early adaptation to impending extremes.

The Birmingham Urban Climate Laboratory: an open meteorological test bed and challenges of the smart city

Existing urban meteorological networks have an important role to play as test beds for inexpensive and more sustainable measurement techniques that are now becoming possible in our increasingly smart cities. The Birmingham Urban Climate Laboratory (BUCL) is a near-real-time, high-resolution urban meteorological network (UMN) of automatic weather stations and inexpensive, nonstandard air temperature sensors. The network has recently been implemented with an initial focus on monitoring urban heat, infrastructure, and health applications. A number of UMNs exist worldwide; however, BUCL is novel in its density, the low-cost nature of the sensors, and the use of proprietary Wi-Fi networks. This paper provides an overview of the logistical aspects of implementing a UMN test bed at such a density, including selecting appropriate urban sites; testing and calibrating low-cost, nonstandard equipment; implementing strict quality-assurance/quality-control mechanisms (including metadata); and utilizing preexisting Wi-Fi networks to transmit data. Also included are visualizations of data collected by the network, including data from the July 2013 U.K. heatwave as well as highlighting potential applications. The paper is an open invitation to use the facility as a test bed for evaluating models and/or other nonstandard observation techniques such as those generated via crowdsourcing techniques.

Seasonal forecasts of tropical cyclone activity in a high-atmospheric-resolution coupled prediction system

Seasonal forecast skill of the basinwide and regional tropical cyclone (TC) activity in an experimental coupled prediction system based on the ECMWF System 4 is assessed. As part of a collaboration between the Center for Ocean–Land–Atmosphere Studies (COLA) and the ECMWF called Project Minerva, the system is integrated at the atmospheric horizontal spectral resolutions of T319, T639, and T1279. Seven-month hindcasts starting from 1 May for the years 1980–2011 are produced at all three resolutions with at least 15 ensemble members. The Minerva system demonstrates statistically significant skill for retrospective forecasts of TC frequency and accumulated cyclone energy (ACE) in the North Atlantic (NA), eastern North Pacific (EP), and western North Pacific. While the highest scores overall are achieved in the North Pacific, the skill in the NA appears to be limited by an overly strong influence of the tropical Pacific variability. Higher model resolution improves skill scores for the ACE and, to a lesser extent, the TC frequency, even though the influence of large-scale climate variations on these TC activity measures is largely independent of resolution changes. The biggest gain occurs in transition from T319 to T639. Significant skill in regional TC forecasts is achieved over broad areas of the Northern Hemisphere. The highest-resolution hindcasts exhibit additional locations with skill in the NA and EP, including land-adjacent areas. The feasibility of regional intensity forecasts is assessed. In the presence of the coupled model biases, the benefits of high resolution for seasonal TC forecasting may be underestimated.

Exploiting existing ground-based remote sensing networks to improve high-resolution weather forecasts

A new generation of high-resolution (1 km) forecast models promises to revolutionize the prediction of hazardous weather such as windstorms, flash floods, and poor air quality. To realize this promise, a dense observing network, focusing on the lower few kilometers of the atmosphere, is required to verify these new forecast models with the ultimate goal of assimilating the data. At present there are insufficient systematic observations of the vertical profiles of water vapor, temperature, wind, and aerosols; a major constraint is the absence of funding to install new networks. A recent research program financed by the European Union, tasked with addressing this lack of observations, demonstrated that the assimilation of observations from an existing wind profiler network reduces forecast errors, provided that the individual instruments are strategically located and properly maintained. Additionally, it identified three further existing European networks of instruments that are currently underexploited, but with minimal expense they could deliver quality-controlled data to national weather services in near–real time, so the data could be assimilated into forecast models. Specifically, 1) several hundred automatic lidars and ceilometers can provide backscatter profiles associated with aerosol and cloud properties and structures with 30-m vertical resolution every minute; 2) more than 20 Doppler lidars, a fairly new technology, can measure vertical and horizontal winds in the lower atmosphere with a vertical resolution of 30 m every 5 min; and 3) about 30 microwave profilers can estimate profiles of temperature and humidity in the lower few kilometers every 10 min. Examples of potential benefits from these instruments are presented.

Are existing biodiversity conservation strategies appropriate in a changing climate?

Many countries have conservation plans for threatened species, but such plans have generally been developed without taking into account the potential impacts of climate change. Here, we apply a decision framework, specifically developed to identify and prioritise climate change adaptation actions and demonstrate its use for 30 species threatened in the UK. Our aim is to assess whether government conservation recommendations remain appropriate under a changing climate. The species, associated with three different habitats (lowland heath, broadleaved woodland and calcareous grassland), were selected from a range of taxonomic groups (primarily moths and vascular plants, but also including bees, bryophytes, carabid beetles and spiders). We compare the actions identified for these threatened species by the decision framework with those included in existing conservation plans, as developed by the UK Government's statutory adviser on nature conservation. We find that many existing conservation recommendations are also identified by the decision framework. However, there are large differences in the spatial prioritisation of actions when explicitly considering projected climate change impacts. This includes recommendations for actions to be carried out in areas where species do not currently occur, in order to allow them to track movement of suitable conditions for their survival. Uncertainties in climate change projections are not a reason to ignore them. Our results suggest that existing conservation plans, which do not take into account potential changes in suitable climatic conditions for species, may fail to maximise species persistence. Comparisons across species also suggest a more habitat-focused approach could be adopted to enable climate change adaptation for multiple species.

Sampling uncertainty in gridded sea surface temperature products and Advanced Very High Resolution Radiometer (AVHRR) Global Area Coverage (GAC) data

Sea surface temperature (SST) data are often provided as gridded products, typically at resolutions of order 0.05 degrees from satellite observations to reduce data volume at the request of data users and facilitate comparison against other products or models. Sampling uncertainty is introduced in gridded products where the full surface area of the ocean within a grid cell cannot be fully observed because of cloud cover. In this paper we parameterise uncertainties in SST as a function of the percentage of clear-sky pixels available and the SST variability in that subsample. This parameterisation is developed from Advanced Along Track Scanning Radiometer (AATSR) data, but is applicable to all gridded L3U SST products at resolutions of 0.05-0.1 degrees, irrespective of instrument and retrieval algorithm, provided that instrument noise propagated into the SST is accounted for. We also calculate the sampling uncertainty of ~0.04 K in Global Area Coverage (GAC) Advanced Very High Resolution Radiometer (AVHRR) products, using related methods.

Improvement and sensitivity analysis of thermal thin-ice thickness retrievals

Considering the sea ice decline in the Arctic during the last decades, polynyas are of high research interest since these features are core areas of new ice formation. The determination of ice formation requires accurate retrieval of polynya area and thin-ice thickness (TIT) distribution within the polynya.We use an established energy balance model to derive TITs with MODIS ice surface temperatures (Ts) and NCEP/DOE Reanalysis II in the Laptev Sea for two winter seasons. Improvements of the algorithm mainly concern the implementation of an iterative approach to calculate the atmospheric flux components taking the atmospheric stratification into account. Furthermore, a sensitivity study is performed to analyze the errors of the ice thickness. The results are the following: 1) 2-m air temperatures (Ta) and Ts have the highest impact on the retrieved ice thickness; 2) an overestimation of Ta yields smaller ice thickness errors as an underestimation of Ta; 3) NCEP Ta shows often a warm bias; and 4) the mean absolute error for ice thicknesses up to 20 cm is ±4.7 cm. Based on these results, we conclude that, despite the shortcomings of the NCEP data (coarse spatial resolution and no polynyas), this data set is appropriate in combination with MODIS Ts for the retrieval of TITs up to 20 cm in the Laptev Sea region. The TIT algorithm can be applied to other polynya regions and to past and future time periods. Our TIT product is a valuable data set for verification of other model and remote sensing ice thickness data.

Decadal predictions with the HiGEM high resolution global coupled climate model: description and basic evaluation

This paper describes the development and basic evaluation of decadal predictions produced using the HiGEM coupled climate model. HiGEM is a higher resolution version of the HadGEM1 Met Office Unified Model. The horizontal resolution in HiGEM has been increased to 1.25◦ × 0.83◦ in longitude and latitude for the atmosphere, and 1/3◦ × 1/3◦ globally for the ocean. The HiGEM decadal predictions are initialised using an anomaly assimilation scheme that relaxes anomalies of ocean temperature and salinity to observed anomalies. 10 year hindcasts are produced for 10 start dates (1960, 1965,..., 2000, 2005). To determine the relative contributions to prediction skill from initial conditions and external forcing, the HiGEM decadal predictions are compared to uninitialised HiGEM transient experiments. The HiGEM decadal predictions have substantial skill for predictions of annual mean surface air temperature and 100 m upper ocean temperature. For lead times up to 10 years, anomaly correlations (ACC) over large areas of the North Atlantic Ocean, the Western Pacific Ocean and the Indian Ocean exceed values of 0.6. Initialisation of the HiGEM decadal predictions significantly increases skill over regions of the Atlantic Ocean,the Maritime Continent and regions of the subtropical North and South Pacific Ocean. In particular, HiGEM produces skillful predictions of the North Atlantic subpolar gyre for up to 4 years lead time (with ACC > 0.7), which are significantly larger than the uninitialised HiGEM transient experiments.

Sensitivity of resolved and parameterized surface drag to changes in resolution and parameterization

The relative contribution of resolved and parameterized surface drag towards balancing the atmospheric angular momentum flux convergence (AMFC), and their sensitivity to horizontal resolution and parameterization, are investigated in an atmospheric model. This sensitivity can be difficult to elucidate in free-running climate models, in which the AMFC varies with changing climatologies and, as a result, the relative contributions of surface terms balancing the AMFC also vary. While the sensitivity question has previously been addressed using short-range forecasts, we demonstrate that a nudging framework is an effective method for constraining the AMFC. The Met Office Unified Model is integrated at three horizontal resolutions ranging from 130 km (N96) to 25 km (N512) while relaxing the model’s wind and temperature fields towards the ERAinterim reanalysis within the altitude regions of maximum AMFC. This method is validated against short range forecasts and good agreement is found. These experiments are then used to assess the fidelity of the exchange between parameterized and resolved orographic torques with changes in horizontal resolution. Although the parameterized orographic torque reduces substantially with increasing horizontal resolution, there is little change in resolved orographic torque over 20N to 50N. The tendencies produced by the nudging routine indicate that the additional drag at lower horizontal resolution is excessive. When parameterized orographic blocking is removed at the coarsest of these resolutions, there is a lack of compensation, and even compensation of the opposite sense, by the boundary layer and resolved torques which is particularly pronounced over 20N to 50N. This study demonstrates that there is strong sensitivity in the behaviour of the resolved and parameterized surface drag over this region.

Educating and motivating adolescents who are deaf or hard of hearing with drug and alcohol addiction: Components of a curriculum that links adolescents to appropriate treatment

This paper highlights the components necessary for a drug and alcohol addiction curricula to educate, motivate, and link adolescents who are deaf or hard of hearing using oral communication to appropriate treatment.

Toward a resolution of Campanulid phylogeny, with special reference to the placement of Dipsacales

Broad-scale phylogenetic analyses of the angiosperms and of the Asteridae have failed to confidently resolve relationships among the major lineages of the campanulid Asteridae (i.e., the euasterid II of APG II, 2003). To address this problem we assembled presently available sequences for a core set of 50 taxa, representing the diversity of the four largest lineages (Apiales, Aquifoliales, Asterales, Dipsacales) as well as the smaller ""unplaced"" groups (e.g., Bruniaceae, Paracryphiaceae, Columelliaceae). We constructed four data matrices for phylogenetic analysis: a chloroplast coding matrix (atpB, matK, ndhF, rbcL), a chloroplast non-coding matrix (rps16 intron, trnT-F region, trnV-atpE IGS), a combined chloroplast dataset (all seven chloroplast regions), and a combined genome matrix (seven chloroplast regions plus 18S and 26S rDNA). Bayesian analyses of these datasets using mixed substitution models produced often well-resolved and supported trees. Consistent with more weakly supported results from previous studies, our analyses support the monophyly of the four major clades and the relationships among them. Most importantly, Asterales are inferred to be sister to a clade containing Apiales and Dipsacales. Paracryphiaceae is consistently placed sister to the Dipsacales. However, the exact relationships of Bruniaceae, Columelliaceae, and an Escallonia clade depended upon the dataset. Areas of poor resolution in combined analyses may be partly explained by conflict between the coding and non-coding data partitions. We discuss the implications of these results for our understanding of campanulid phylogeny and evolution, paying special attention to how our findings bear on character evolution and biogeography in Dipsacales.

Influence of quantum-dots density on average in-plane strain of optoelectronic devices investigated by high-resolution X-ray diffraction

High-resolution X-ray diffractometry is used to probe the nature of a diffraction-peak broadening previously noticed in quantum dots (QDs) systems with freestanding InAs islands on top of GaAs (001) substrates [Freitas et al., Phys. Status Solidi (A) 204, 2548 (2007)]. The procedure is hence extended to further investigate the capping process of InAs/GaAs QDs. A direct correlation is established between QDs growth rates and misorientation of lattice-planes at the samples surfaces. This effect provides an alternative too] for studying average strain fields on QDs systems in standard triple axis diffractometers running on X-ray tube sources, which are much more common than synchrotron facilities. (C) 2009 WILEY-VCH Verlag GmbH & Co. KGaA, Weinheim

MODIS aerosol optical depth Retrievals with high spatial resolution over an urban area using the critical reflectance

[1] The retrieval of aerosol optical depth (Ta) over land by satellite remote sensing is still a challenge when a high spatial resolution is required. This study presents a tool that uses satellite measurements to dynamically identify the aerosol optical model that best represents the optical properties of the aerosol present in the atmosphere. We use aerosol critical reflectance to identify the single scattering albedo of the aerosol layer. Two case studies show that the Sao Paulo region can have different aerosol properties and demonstrates how the dynamic methodology works to identify those differences to obtain a better T a retrieval. The methodology assigned the high single scattering albedo aerosol model (pi o( lambda = 0.55) = 0.90) to the case where the aerosol source was dominated by biomass burning and the lower pi(o) model (pi(o) (lambda = 0.55) = 0.85) to the case where the local urban aerosol had the dominant influence on the region, as expected. The dynamic methodology was applied using cloud-free data from 2002 to 2005 in order to retrieve Ta with Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer ( MODIS). These results were compared with collocated data measured by AERONET in Sao Paulo. The comparison shows better results when the dynamic methodology using two aerosol optical models is applied (slope 1.06 +/- 0.08 offset 0.01 +/- 0.02 r(2) 0.6) than when a single and fixed aerosol model is used (slope 1.48 +/- 0.11 and offset - 0.03 +/- 0.03 r(2) 0.6). In conclusion the dynamical methodology is shown to work well with two aerosol models. Further studies are necessary to evaluate the methodology in other regions and under different conditions.

Root uptake and reduction of hexavalent chromium by aquatic macrophytes as assessed by high-resolution X-ray emission

Aquatic macrophytes Salvinia auriculata, Pistia stratiotes and Eichhornia crassipes were chosen to investigate the Cr(VI) reduced by root-based biosorption in a chromium uptake experiment, using a high-resolution XRF technique. These plants were grown in hydroponics medium supplied with non-toxic Cr concentrations during a 27-day metal uptake experiment. The high-resolution Cr-K beta fluorescence spectra for dried root tissues and Cr reference material (100% Cr, Cr(2)O(3), and CrO(3)) were measured using an XRF spectrometer. For all species of aquatic plant treated with Cr(VI), the energy of the Cr-K beta(2,5) line was shifted around 8 eV below the same spectral line identified for the Cr(VI) reference, but it was also near to the line identified for the Cr(III) reference. Moreover, there was a lack of the strong Cr-K beta"" line assigned to the Cr(VI) reference material within the Cr(VI)-treated plant spectra, suggesting the reduction of Cr(VI) for other less toxic oxidation states of Cr. As all Cr-K beta spectra of root tissue species were compared, the peak energies and lineshape patterns of the Cr-K beta(2,5) line are coincident for the same aquatic plant species, when they were treated with Cr(III) and Cr(VI). Based on the experimental evidence, the Cr(VI) reduction process has happened during metal biosorption by these plants. (C) 2009 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.