Development and illustrative outputs of the Community Integrated Assessment System (CIAS), a multi-institutional modular integrated assessment approach for modelling climate change.

This paper describes the development and first results of the “Community Integrated Assessment System” (CIAS), a unique multi-institutional modular and flexible integrated assessment system for modelling climate change. Key to this development is the supporting software infrastructure, SoftIAM. Through it, CIAS is distributed between the community of institutions which has each contributed modules to the CIAS system. At the heart of SoftIAM is the Bespoke Framework Generator (BFG) which enables flexibility in the assembly and composition of individual modules from a pool to form coupled models within CIAS, and flexibility in their deployment onto the available software and hardware resources. Such flexibility greatly enhances modellers’ ability to re-configure the CIAS coupled models to answer different questions, thus tracking evolving policy needs. It also allows rigorous testing of the robustness of IA modelling results to the use of different component modules representing the same processes (for example, the economy). Such processes are often modelled in very different ways, using different paradigms, at the participating institutions. An illustrative application to the study of the relationship between the economy and the earth’s climate system is provided.

Eutrophication control in river-systems: an application of INCA-P to the River Lugg

The Integrated Catchments model of Phosphorus dynamics (INCA-P) was applied to the River Lugg to determine the key factors controlling delivery of phosphorus to the main channel and to quantify the relative contribution of diffuse and point sources to the in-stream phosphorus (P) load under varying hydrological conditions. The model is able to simulate the seasonal variations and inter-annual variations in the in-stream total-phosphorus concentrations. However, difficulties in simulating diffuse inputs arise due to equifinality in the model structure and parameters. The River Lugg is split into upper and lower reaches. The upper reaches are dominated by grassland and woodland, so the patterns in the stream-water total-phosphorus concentrations are typical of diffuse source inputs; application of the model leads to estimates of the relative contribution to the in-stream P load from diffuse and point sources as 9:1. In the lower reaches, which are more intensively cultivated and urbanised, the stream-water total-phosphorus concentration dynamics are influenced more by point-sources; the simulated relative diffuse/point contribution to the in-stream P load is 1: 1. The model set-up and simulations are used to identify the key source-areas of P in the catchment, the P contribution of the Lugg to the River Wye during years with contrasting precipitation inputs, and the uptake and release of P from within-reach sediment. In addition, model scenarios are run to identify the impacts of likely P reductions at sewage treatment works on the in-stream soluble-reactive P concentrations and the suitability of this as a management option is assessed for reducing eutrophication.

The European Declarative System, Database, and Languages

The EP2025 EDS project develops a highly parallel information server that supports established high-value interfaces. We describe the motivation for the project, the architecture of the system, and the design and application of its database and language subsystems. The Elipsys logic programming language, its advanced applications, EDS Lisp, and the Metal machine translation system are examined.

The CAFS system today and tomorrow

The CAFS search engine is a real machine in a virtual machine world; it is the hardware component of ICL's CAFS system. The paper is an introduction and prelude to the set of papers in this volume on CAFS applications. It defines The CAFS system and its context together with the function of its hardware and software components. It examines CAFS' role in the broad context of application development and information systems; it highlights some techniques and applications which exploit the CAFS system. Finally, it concludes with some suggestions for possible further developments. 'Search out thy wit for secret policies And we will make thee famous through the world' Henry VI, 1:3

Application of personal computers to eddy current inspections

This presentation describes a system for measuring claddings as an example of the many possible advantages to be obtained by applying a personal computer to eddy current testing. A theoretical model and a learning algorithm are integrated into an instrument. They are supported in the PC, and serve to simplify and enhance multiparameter testing. The PC gives additional assistance by simplifying set-up procedures and data logging etc.

A heterologous expression system for bovine lens transmembrane main intrinsic protein (MIP) in Nicotiana tabacum plants

We have developed a heterologous expression system for transmembrane lens main intrinsic protein (MIP) in Nicotiana tabacum plant tissue. A native bovine MIP26 amplicon was subcloned into an expression cassette under the control of a constitutive Cauliflower Mosaic Virus promoter, also containing a neomycin phosphotransferase operon. This cassette was transformed into Agrobacterium tumefaciens by triparental mating and used to infect plant tissue grown in culture. Recombinant plants were selected by their ability to grow and root on kanamycin-containing media. The presence of MIP in the plant tissues was confirmed by PCR, RT-PCR and immunohistochemistry. A number of benefits of this system for the study of MIP will be discussed, and also its application as a tool for the study of heterologously expressed proteins in general.

An assessment of the fine sediment dynamics in an upland river system: INCA-Sed modifications and implications for fisheries

There is a need for better links between hydrology and ecology, specifically between landscapes and riverscapes to understand how processes and factors controlling the transport and storage of environmental pollution have affected or will affect the freshwater biota. Here we show how the INCA modelling framework, specifically INCA-Sed (the Integrated Catchments model for Sediments) can be used to link sediment delivery from the landscape to sediment changes in-stream. INCA-Sed is a dynamic, process-based, daily time step model. The first complete description of the equations used in the INCA-Sed software (version 1.9.11) is presented. This is followed by an application of INCA-Sed made to the River Lugg (1077 km2) in Wales. Excess suspended sediment can negatively affect salmonid health. The Lugg has a large and potentially threatened population of both Atlantic salmon (Salmo salar) and Brown Trout (Salmo trutta). With the exception of the extreme sediment transport processes, the model satisfactorily simulated both the hydrology and the sediment dynamics in the catchment. Model results indicate that diffuse soil loss is the most important sediment generation process in the catchment. In the River Lugg, the mean annual Guideline Standard for suspended sediment concentration, proposed by UKTAG, of 25 mg l− 1 is only slightly exceeded during the simulation period (1995–2000), indicating only minimal effect on the Atlantic salmon population. However, the daily time step simulation of INCA-Sed also allows the investigation of the critical spawning period. It shows that the sediment may have a significant negative effect on the fish population in years with high sediment runoff. It is proposed that the fine settled particles probably do not affect the salmonid egg incubation process, though suspended particles may damage the gills of fish and make the area unfavourable for spawning if the conditions do not improve.

The 'direct costs' of livestock disease: The development of a system of models for the analysis of 30 endemic livestock diseases in Great Britain

The 'direct costs' attributable to 30 different endemic diseases of farm animals in Great Britain are estimated using a standardised method to construct a simple model for each disease that includes consideration of disease prevention and treatment costs. The models so far developed provide a basis for further analyses including cost-benefit analyses for the economic assessment of disease control options. The approach used reflects the inherent livestock disease information constraints, which limit the application of other economic analytical methods. It is a practical and transparent approach that is relatively easily communicated to veterinary scientists and policy makers. The next step is to develop the approach by incorporating wider economic considerations into the analyses in a way that will demonstrate to policy makers and others the importance of an economic perspective to livestock disease issues.

Time patterns in UK demand for alcohol and tobacco: an application of the EM algorithm

Capturing the pattern of structural change is a relevant task in applied demand analysis, as consumer preferences may vary significantly over time. Filtering and smoothing techniques have recently played an increasingly relevant role. A dynamic Almost Ideal Demand System with random walk parameters is estimated in order to detect modifications in consumer habits and preferences, as well as changes in the behavioural response to prices and income. Systemwise estimation, consistent with the underlying constraints from economic theory, is achieved through the EM algorithm. The proposed model is applied to UK aggregate consumption of alcohol and tobacco, using quarterly data from 1963 to 2003. Increased alcohol consumption is explained by a preference shift, addictive behaviour and a lower price elasticity. The dynamic and time-varying specification is consistent with the theoretical requirements imposed at each sample point. (c) 2005 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Strategies, effectiveness and rationale of vector-borne disease control in the pastoralist system of south-western Uganda

In Uganda, control of vector-borne diseases is mainly in form of vector control, and chemotherapy. There have been reports that acaricides are being misused in the pastoralist systems in Uganda. This is because of the belief by scientists that intensive application of acaricide is uneconomical and unsustainable particularly in the indigenous cattle. The objective of this study was to investigate the strategies, rationale and effectiveness of vector-borne disease control by pastoralists. To systematically carry out these investigations, a combination of qualitative and quantitative research methods was used, in both the collection and the analysis of data. Cattle keepers were found to control tick-borne diseases (TBDs) mainly through spraying, in contrast with the control of trypanosomosis for which the main method of control was by chemotherapy. The majority of herders applied acaricides weekly and used an acaricide of lower strength than recommended by the manufacturers. They used very little acaricide wash, and spraying was preferred to dipping. Furthermore, pastoralists either treated sick animals themselves or did nothing at all, rather than using veterinary personnel. Oxytetracycline (OTC) was the drug commonly used in the treatment of TBDs. Nevertheless, although pastoralists may not have been following recommended practices in their control of ticks and tick-borne diseases, they were neither wasteful nor uneconomical and their methods appeared to be effective. Trypanosomosis was not a problem either in Sembabule or Mbarara district. Those who used trypanocides were found to use more drugs than were necessary.

Synthesis of multicarboxylic acid appended imidazolium ionic liquids and their application in palladium-catalyzed selective oxidation of styrene

A series of multicarboxylic acid appended imidazolium ionic liquids ( McaILs) with chloride [ Cl](-) or bromide [ Br](-) as anions have been synthesized and characterized. Deprotonation of these ionic acids gives the corresponding zwitterions. Re-protonation of the zwitterions with strong Bronsted acids gives a series of new ionic acid-adducts, many of which remained as room-temperature ionic liquids. A new catalytic system, McaIL/PdCl2 for the selective catalytic oxidation of styrene to acetophenone with hydrogen peroxide as an oxidant has been attempted. In the presence of McaILs, it is found that the quantity of palladium chloride PdCl2 used can be greatly reduced while the activity ( TOF) and selectivity towards acetophenone are enhanced sharply. It is also shown that the catalytic properties of this system could be finely tuned through the molecular design of the McaILs. The best TOF value obtained so far is 146 h(-1) with 100% conversion of styrene at 93% selectivity to acetophenone. In addition, the catalytic activity has been maintained for at least ten catalytic cycles.

Failure of a control strategy for a hybrid air-conditioning and wind catchers/towers system at Bluewater shopping malls in Kent

Purpose – To evaluate the control strategy for a hybrid natural ventilation wind catchers and air-conditioning system and to assess the contribution of wind catchers to indoor air environments and energy savings if any. Design/methodology/approach – Most of the modeling techniques for assessing wind catchers performance are theoretical. Post-occupancy evaluation studies of buildings will provide an insight into the operation of these building components and help to inform facilities managers. A case study for POE was presented in this paper. Findings – The monitoring of the summer and winter month operations showed that the indoor air quality parameters were kept within the design target range. The design control strategy failed to record data regarding the operation, opening time and position of wind catchers system. Though the implemented control strategy was working effectively in monitoring the operation of mechanical ventilation systems, i.e. AHU, did not integrate the wind catchers with the mechanical ventilation system. Research limitations/implications – Owing to short-falls in the control strategy implemented in this project, it was found difficult to quantify and verify the contribution of the wind catchers to the internal conditions and, hence, energy savings. Practical implications – Controlling the operation of the wind catchers via the AHU will lead to isolation of the wind catchers in the event of malfunctioning of the AHU. Wind catchers will contribute to the ventilation of space, particularly in the summer months. Originality/value – This paper demonstrates the value of POE as indispensable tool for FM professionals. It further provides insight into the application of natural ventilation systems in building for healthier indoor environments at lower energy cost. The design of the control strategy for natural ventilation and air-conditioning should be considered at the design stage involving the FM personnel.

Application of computer-aided facilities management (CAFM) for intelligent buildings operation

Purpose – The purpose of this paper is to investigate the concepts of intelligent buildings (IBs), and the opportunities offered by the application of computer-aided facilities management (CAFM) systems. Design/methodology/approach – In this paper definitions of IBs are investigated, particularly definitions that are embracing open standards for effective operational change, using a questionnaire survey. The survey further investigated the extension of CAFM to IBs concepts and the opportunities that such integrated systems will provide to facilities management (FM) professionals. Findings – The results showed variation in the understanding of the concept of IBs and the application of CAFM. The survey showed that 46 per cent of respondents use a CAFM system with a majority agreeing on the potential of CAFM in delivery of effective facilities. Research limitations/implications – The questionnaire survey results are limited to the views of the respondents within the context of FM in the UK. Practical implications – Following on the many definitions of an IB does not necessarily lead to technologies of equipment that conform to an open standard. This open standard and documentation of systems produced by vendors is the key to integrating CAFM with other building management systems (BMS) and further harnessing the application of CAFM for IBs. Originality/value – The paper gives experience-based suggestions for both demand and supply sides of the service procurement to gain the feasible benefits and avoid the currently hindering obstacles, as the paper provides insight to the current and future tools for the mobile aspects of FM. The findings are relevant for service providers and operators as well.

Application of integrated GPS and GIS technology for reducing construction waste and improving construction efficiency

This paper presents a study on applying an integrated Global Position System (GPS) and Geographacial Information System (GIS) technology to the reduction of construction waste. During the study, a prototype study is developed from automatic data capture system such as the barcoding system for construction material and equipment (M&E) management onsite, whilst the integrated GPS and GIS technology is combined to the M&E system based on the Wide Area Network (WAN). Then, a case study is conducted to demonstrate the deployment of the system. Experimental results indicate that the proposed system can minimize the amount of onsite material wastage.

Qualitative modelling of sustainable energy scenarios: An application and extension of the Bon Qualitative Input-Output model

Climate change is one of the major challenges facing economic systems at the start of the 21st century. Reducing greenhouse gas emissions will require both restructuring the energy supply system (production) and addressing the efficiency and sufficiency of the social uses of energy (consumption). The energy production system is a complicated supply network of interlinked sectors with 'knock-on' effects throughout the economy. End use energy consumption is governed by complex sets of interdependent cultural, social, psychological and economic variables driven by shifts in consumer preference and technological development trajectories. To date, few models have been developed for exploring alternative joint energy production-consumption systems. The aim of this work is to propose one such model. This is achieved in a methodologically coherent manner through integration of qualitative input-output models of production, with Bayesian belief network models of consumption, at point of final demand. The resulting integrated framework can be applied either (relatively) quickly and qualitatively to explore alternative energy scenarios, or as a fully developed quantitative model to derive or assess specific energy policy options. The qualitative applications are explored here.