Toward an integrated seasonal forecasting system for South America

This study proposes an objective integrated seasonal forecasting system for producing well-calibrated probabilistic rainfall forecasts for South America. The proposed system has two components: ( i) an empirical model that uses Pacific and Atlantic sea surface temperature anomalies as predictors for rainfall and ( ii) a multimodel system composed of three European coupled ocean - atmosphere models. Three-month lead austral summer rainfall predictions produced by the components of the system are integrated ( i. e., combined and calibrated) using a Bayesian forecast assimilation procedure. The skill of empirical, coupled multimodel, and integrated forecasts obtained with forecast assimilation is assessed and compared. The simple coupled multimodel ensemble has a comparable level of skill to that obtained using a simplified empirical approach. As for most regions of the globe, seasonal forecast skill for South America is low. However, when empirical and coupled multimodel predictions are combined and calibrated using forecast assimilation, more skillful integrated forecasts are obtained than with either empirical or coupled multimodel predictions alone. Both the reliability and resolution of the forecasts have been improved by forecast assimilation in several regions of South America. The Tropics and the area of southern Brazil, Uruguay, Paraguay, and northern Argentina have been found to be the two most predictable regions of South America during the austral summer. Skillful rainfall forecasts are generally only possible during El Nino or La Nina years rather than in neutral years.

A Bayesian approach for multi-model downscaling: Seasonal forecasting of regional rainfall and river flows in South America

This study addresses three issues: spatial downscaling, calibration, and combination of seasonal predictions produced by different coupled ocean-atmosphere climate models. It examines the feasibility Of using a Bayesian procedure for producing combined, well-calibrated downscaled seasonal rainfall forecasts for two regions in South America and river flow forecasts for the Parana river in the south of Brazil and the Tocantins river in the north of Brazil. These forecasts are important for national electricity generation management and planning. A Bayesian procedure, referred to here as forecast assimilation, is used to combine and calibrate the rainfall predictions produced by three climate models. Forecast assimilation is able to improve the skill of 3-month lead November-December-January multi-model rainfall predictions over the two South American regions. Improvements are noted in forecast seasonal mean values and uncertainty estimates. River flow forecasts are less skilful than rainfall forecasts. This is partially because natural river flow is a derived quantity that is sensitive to hydrological as well as meteorological processes, and to human intervention in the form of reservoir management.

Young adults and the 5 a day campaign: perceived benefits and barriers of eating more fruits and vegetables

Although consuming adequate amounts of fruits and vegetables reduces the risk of developing chronic diseases, it is widely recognized that young adults’ intakes are currently well below the Department of Health’s recommended five portions a day, with men consuming even less than women. One approach in the UK has been to introduce health campaigns such as the 5 A DAY programme; however, little is currently known about how well their messages are understood amongst young adults. This study examined current knowledge of the 5 A DAY message in young adults, as well as the perceived benefits and remaining barriers towards consuming more fruits and vegetables. In total, four focus groups were conducted using male (n = 22) and female (n = 18) students at the University of Reading. Content analysis revealed that while participants were aware of the 5 A DAY recommendation, there was widespread confusion regarding the detail. In addition, men were less accepting of the message than women, reporting greater disbelief and a lack of motivation to increase intake. Finally, a range of barriers was reported by participants of both genders, despite the perceived beneficial effects for health and appearance. The results illustrate a considerable gap between awareness and knowledge of the 5 A DAY message, and underscore the challenge that changing behaviour in young adults represents. As well as stepping up education- and skill-based health campaigns, more targeted gender specific interventions will be needed to achieve sustained increases in fruit and vegetable intake.

Quantification of physical and biological uncertainty in the simulation of the yield of a tropical crop using present-day and doubled CO2 climates

The impacts of climate change on crop productivity are often assessed using simulations from a numerical climate model as an input to a crop simulation model. The precision of these predictions reflects the uncertainty in both models. We examined how uncertainty in a climate (HadAM3) and crop General Large-Area Model (GLAM) for annual crops model affects the mean and standard deviation of crop yield simulations in present and doubled carbon dioxide (CO2) climates by perturbation of parameters in each model. The climate sensitivity parameter (lambda, the equilibrium response of global mean surface temperature to doubled CO2) was used to define the control climate. Observed 1966-1989 mean yields of groundnut (Arachis hypogaea L.) in India were simulated well by the crop model using the control climate and climates with values of lambda near the control value. The simulations were used to measure the contribution to uncertainty of key crop and climate model parameters. The standard deviation of yield was more affected by perturbation of climate parameters than crop model parameters in both the present-day and doubled CO2 climates. Climate uncertainty was higher in the doubled CO2 climate than in the present-day climate. Crop transpiration efficiency was key to crop model uncertainty in both present-day and doubled CO2 climates. The response of crop development to mean temperature contributed little uncertainty in the present-day simulations but was among the largest contributors under doubled CO2. The ensemble methods used here to quantify physical and biological uncertainty offer a method to improve model estimates of the impacts of climate change.

Duration from vine emergence to flowering suggests a long-day or rate of change of photoperiod response in white yam (Dioscorea rotundata Poir.)

The objective of this study was to quantify the effect of photoperiod on the duration from vine (shoot) emergence to flowering in white or Guinea yam (Dioscorea rotundata). The duration from vine emergence to flowering in two clonal varieties of yam (TDr 131 and TDr 99-9) was recorded at 10 different sowing dates/locations in Nigeria. Durations to flowering varied from 40 to > 88 days. Mean daily temperature and photoperiod between vine emergence and flowering varied from 25 to 27 degrees C and 13.1 to 13.4 h day(-1), respectively. Both clones had similar responses to temperature, with base and optimum temperatures of 12 and 25-27 degrees C, respectively. Thermal durations to flowering were strongly related (r(2) > 0.75-0.83) to absolute photoperiod (h) at vine emergence as well as to rate of change of photoperiod (s day(-1)) at vine emergence. The response to absolute photoperiod suggests that white yams are quantitative LDPs, flowering sooner in long than short days. Yams also flowered earlier when the rate of change of photoperiod was positive but small, or was negative. It is suggested that yams may use a combination of photoperiod and rate of change in order to fine tune flowering time. (c) 2006 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Patents and Haploid Plants

One of the important themes in any discussion concerning the application of haploids in agricultural biotechnology or elsewhere is the role of Intellectual Property Rights (IPR). This term covers both the content of patents and the confidential expertise, usually related to methodology and referred to as "Trade Secrets". This review will explain the concepts behind patent protection, and will use the international patent databases to analyse the content of these patents and trends over the last 20 years. This analysis from regions including North America, Europe, and Asia reveals a total of more than 30 granted patents and a larger number of applications. The first of these patents dates from 1986, and although the peak of activity was in the late 1990s, there has been continuous interest to the present day. The subject matter of these patents and applications covers methods for anther and pollen culture, ovule culture, the use of specific haploid-inducing genes, the use of haploids as transformation targets, and the exploitation of genes that regulate embryo development. The species mentioned include cereals, vegetables, flowers, spices and trees.

Pliocene seasonality across the North Atlantic inferred from cheilostome bryozoans

Previous studies have shown an inverse correlation between zooid size in cheilostome bryozoans and ambient water temperature. This relationship underlies the MART technique which uses intracolonial variation in zooid size to predict mean annual range in temperature experienced by bryozoan colonies during their life. Here we apply the MART technique to study Early and Mid Pliocene bryozoans from Central America (Panama, Costa Rica), the USA (Florida, South Carolina, North Carolina, Virginia) and the UK (Suffolk) to reconstruct palaeoseasonality across a range of latitudes for the North Atlantic during the Pliocene Epoch. Compared to the present-day, our analyses suggest greater seasonality (ca 4.5 degrees C) in the southern Caribbean at the time of Cayo Agua Formation deposition (ca 4.25 Ma), in keeping with inferred upwelling prior to the closure of the isthmian barrier at 2.7 Ma. Bryozoans also indicate seasonal upwelling on the Gulf Coast of Florida in a similar manner to the present-day. Because upwelling can be highly localised and prone to spatial and temporal variation in the Gulf of Mexico today, it contributes little to a broad understanding of Pliocene North Atlantic waters. However, MART estimates for the coastal plain region indicate a general reduction in the annual range in temperature relative to the present, suggesting that the colder surface waters that today reach south to Cape Hatteras had less influence in Early to Mid Pliocene times. These results, along with evidence from other proxies, strongly support reduced seasonality and warmer conditions along the eastern seaboard of the USA in the Early to Mid Pliocene. Finally, the MART estimates amongst Coralline Crag localities provide evidence for an increased annual range in temperature in the southern North Sea than at present. Our study shows that bryozoan MART estimates provide a powerful, independent proxy for palaeoseasonality and is the first to demonstrate that the MART technique can be applied to infer palaeoclimates across a wide range of latitudes focusing on a variety of geological formations and geographical regions. Crown Copyright (C) 2009 Published by Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.