Frequency-Dependent Selection Predicts Patterns of Radiations and Biodiversity

Most empirical studies support a decline in speciation rates through time, although evidence for constant speciation rates also exists. Declining rates have been explained by invoking pre-existing niches, whereas constant rates have been attributed to non-adaptive processes such as sexual selection and mutation. Trends in speciation rate and the processes underlying it remain unclear, representing a critical information gap in understanding patterns of global diversity. Here we show that the temporal trend in the speciation rate can also be explained by frequency-dependent selection. We construct a frequency-dependent and DNA sequence-based model of speciation. We compare our model to empirical diversity patterns observed for cichlid fish and Darwin's finches, two classic systems for which speciation rates and richness data exist. Negative frequency-dependent selection predicts well both the declining speciation rate found in cichlid fish and explains their species richness. For groups like the Darwin's finches, in which speciation rates are constant and diversity is lower, speciation rate is better explained by a model without frequency-dependent selection. Our analysis shows that differences in diversity may be driven by incipient species abundance with frequency-dependent selection. Our results demonstrate that genetic-distance-based speciation and frequency-dependent selection are sufficient to explain the high diversity observed in natural systems and, importantly, predict decay through time in speciation rate in the absence of pre-existing niches.

Higher frequency of genetic variants conferring increased risk for ADRs for commonly used drugs treating cancer, AIDS and tuberculosis in persons of African descent

There is established clinical evidence for differences in drug response, cure rates and survival outcomes between different ethnic populations, but the causes are poorly understood. Differences in frequencies of functional genetic variants in key drug response and metabolism genes may significantly influence drug response differences in different populations. To assess this, we genotyped 1330 individuals of African (n=372) and European (n=958) descent for 4535 single-nucleotide polymorphisms in 350 key drug absorption, distribution, metabolism, elimination and toxicity genes. Important and remarkable differences in the distribution of genetic variants were observed between Africans and Europeans and among the African populations. These could translate into significant differences in drug efficacy and safety profiles, and also in the required dose to achieve the desired therapeutic effect in different populations. Our data points to the need for population-specific genetic variation in personalizing medicine and care.

The transcriptional repressor CDP (Cutl1) is essential for epithelial cell differentiation of the lung and the hair follicle

The mammalian Cutl1 gene codes for the CCAAT displacement protein (CDP), which has been implicated as a transcriptional repressor in diverse processes such as terminal differentiation, cell cycle progression, and the control of nuclear matrix attachment regions. To investigate the in vivo function of Cutl1, we have replaced the C-terminal Cut repeat 3 and homeodomain exons with an in-frame lacZ gene by targeted mutagenesis in the mouse. The CDP-lacZ fusion protein is retained in the cytoplasm and fails to repress gene transcription, indicating that the Cutl1(lacZ) allele corresponds to a null mutation. Cutl1 mutant mice on inbred genetic backgrounds are born at Mendelian frequency, but die shortly after birth because of retarded differentiation of the lung epithelia, which indicates an essential role of CDP in lung maturation. A less pronounced delay in lung development allows Cutl1 mutant mice on an outbred background to survive beyond birth. These mice are growth-retarded and develop an abnormal pelage because of disrupted hair follicle morphogenesis. The inner root sheath (IRS) is reduced, and the transcription of Sonic hedgehog and IRS-specific genes is deregulated in Cutl1 mutant hair follicles, consistent with the specific expression of Cutl1 in the progenitors and cell lineages of the IRS. These data implicate CDP in cell-lineage specification during hair follicle morphogenesis, which resembles the role of the related Cut protein in specifying cell fates during Drosophila development.

Identification of a novel tumor suppressor gene on human chromosome 3p14-p12 involved in renal cell carcinoma

Nonpapillary renal cell carcinoma (RCC) is an adult cancer of the kidney which occurs both in familial and sporadic forms. The familial form of RCC is associated with translocations involving chromosome 3 with a breakpoint at 3p14-p13. Studies focused on sporadic RCC have shown two commonly deleted regions at 3p14.3-p13 and 3p21.3. In addition, a more distal region mapping to 3p26-p25 has been linked to the Von Hippel Lindau (VHL) disease gene. A large proportion of VHL patients develop RCC. The short arm of human chromosome 3 can, therefore, be dissected into three distinct regions which could encode tumor suppressor genes for RCC. Loss or inactivation of one or more of these loci may be an important step in the genesis of RCC.^ I have used the technique of microcell-mediated chromosome transfer to introduce an intact, normal human chromosome 3 and defined fragments of 3p, dominantly marked with pSV2neo, into the highly malignant RCC cell line SN12C.19. The introduction of chromosome 3 and of a centric fragment of 3p, encompassing 3p14-q11, into SN12C.19 resulted in dramatic suppression of tumor growth in nude mice. Another defined deletion hybrid contained the region 3p12-q24 of the introduced human chromosome and failed to suppress tumorigenicity. These data define the region 3p14-p12, the most proximal region of high frequency allele loss in sporadic RCC as well as the region containing the translocation breakpoint in familial RCC, to contain a novel tumor suppressor locus involved in RCC. We have designated this locus nonpapillary renal cell carcinoma-1 (NRC-1). Furthermore, we have functional evidence that NRC-1 controls the growth of RCC cells by inducing rapid cell death in vivo. ^

Genetic predisposition to prostate cancer

Prostate cancer (PC) is a significant economic and health burden in the U.S. and Europe but its causes are largely unknown. The most significant risk factors (after gender) are age and family history of the disease. A gene with high penetrance but low frequency on chromosome 1q, HPC 1, has been suggested to cause a proportion of the familial aggregation of PC but other more common genes, conferring less risk, are also thought to contribute to disease predisposition. We have pursued a strategy to study both types of genetic risk in PC. To identify high penetrance genes, affected men from thirteen families have been genotyped for genetic linkage analysis at six microsatellite markers spanning 45 cM of 1q24-25. Both LOD score and non-parametric statistics provide no significant support for HPC1 in this genomic region, although 3 of the families did combine to produce a LOD score of 0.9. These families will be included in a genome wide search for other PC predisposition genes as part of a multinational collaboration.^ For study of common genetic factors in PC development, leukocyte DNA samples from an unselected series of 55 patients and 67 controls have been examined for genetic differences in two other candidate genes, the androgen receptor gene, hAR, at Xq11-12, and the vitamin D receptor gene, hVDR, at 12q12-14. hAR was typed for two trinucleotide repeat length polymorphisms, (CAG)$\rm\sb{n}$ and (GGC)$\rm\sb{n},$ encoding polyglutamine and polyglycine tracts, respectively, which have been implicated in PC susceptibility. These data, combined with similarly processed patients and controls from the U.K. show no consistent association of allele length with PC risk. A novel finding, however, has been a significant association between the number of GGC repeats and the length of time between diagnosis and relapse in stage T1-T4 Caucasian patients irrespective of therapy and age of the patient. Of 49 patients who relapsed out of 108 entering the study, those with 16 or fewer GGC repeats had an average relapse-free-period of 101 (+/$-$7.7) months while for those with more than 16 repeats the period averaged 48 (+/$-$2.9) months, a difference of 2.1 fold or 4.4 years.^ The second gene, hVDR, was genotyped at two polymorphisms, a synonymous C/T substitution in exon 9 identified by differential TaqI enzymatic digestion and a variable length polyA tract in the 3$\sp\prime$ UTR. Although these polymorphisms are in strong linkage disequilibrium only the polyA region showed a possible association with PC risk. Men homozygous for alleles with fewer than 18 A's had an increased risk (OR = 3.0, p = 0.0578) compared to controls. This result is opposite to the findings of others and may either indicate off-setting random errors which together balance out to no significant overall effect or reflect more complex genetic and/or environmental associations.^ Overall, this research suggests that single gene familial predisposition may be less prominent in PC than in other cancers and that the characteristics of PC pathology may be useful in identifying the effects of common genetic factors. ^

Evolution of dominance under frequency-dependent intraspecific competition

A population-genetic analysis is performed of a two-locus two-allele model, in which the primary locus has a major effect on a quantitative trait that is under frequency-dependent disruptive selection caused by intraspecific competition for a continuum of resources. The modifier locus determines the degree of dominance at the trait level. We establish the conditions when a modifier allele can invade and when it becomes fixed if sufficiently frequent. In general, these are not equivalent because an unstable internal equilibrium may exist and the condition for successful invasion of the modifier is more restrictive than that for eventual fixation from already high frequency. However, successful invasion implies global fixation, i.e., fixation from any initial condition. Modifiers of large effect can become fixed, and also invade, in a wider parameter range than modifiers of small effect. We also study modifiers with a direct, frequency-independent deleterious fitness effect. We show that they can invade if they induce a sufficiently high level of dominance and if disruptive selection on the ecological trait is strong enough. For deleterious modifiers, successful invasion no longer implies global fixation because they can become stuck at an intermediate frequency due to a stable internal equilibrium. Although the conditions for invasion and for fixation if sufficiently frequent are independent of the linkage relation between the two loci, the rate of spread depends strongly on it. The present study provides further support to the view that evolution of dominance may be an efficient mechanism to remove unfit heterozygotes that are maintained by balancing selection. It also demonstrates that an invasion analysis of mutants of very small effect is insufficient to obtain a full understanding of the evolutionary dynamics under frequency-dependent selection.

EVOLUTION OF DOMINANCE UNDER FREQUENCY-DEPENDENT INTRASPECIFIC COMPETITION IN AN ASSORTATIVELY MATING POPULATION

We study the evolution of higher levels of dominance as a response to negative frequency-dependent selection. In contrast to previous studies, we focus on the effect of assortative mating on the evolution of dominance under frequency-dependent intraspecific competition. We analyze a two-locus two-allele model, in which the primary locus has a major effect on a quantitative trait that is under a mixture of frequency-independent stabilizing selection, density-dependent selection, and frequency-dependent selection caused by intraspecific competition for a continuum of resources. The second (modifier) locus determines the degree of dominance at the trait level. Additionally, the population mates assortatively with respect to similarities in the ecological trait. Our analysis shows that the parameter region in which dominance can be established decreases if small levels of assortment are introduced. In addition, the degree of dominance that can be established also decreases. In contrast, if assortment is intermediate, sexual selection for extreme types can be established, which leads to evolution of higher levels of dominance than under random mating. For modifiers with large effects, intermediate levels of assortative mating are most favorable for the evolution of dominance. For large modifiers, the speed of fixation can even be higher for intermediate levels of assortative mating than for random mating.

German Total Ankle Replacement Register of the German Foot and Ankle Society (D. A. F.) - presentation of design and reliability of the data as well as first results

INTRODUCTION Even though arthroplasty of the ankle joint is considered to be an established procedure, only about 1,300 endoprostheses are implanted in Germany annually. Arthrodeses of the ankle joint are performed almost three times more often. This may be due to the availability of the procedure - more than twice as many providers perform arthrodesis - as well as the postulated high frequency of revision procedures of arthroplasties in the literature. In those publications, however, there is often no clear differentiation between revision surgery with exchange of components, subsequent interventions due to complications and subsequent surgery not associated with complications. The German Orthopaedic Foot and Ankle Association's (D. A. F.) registry for total ankle replacement collects data pertaining to perioperative complications as well as cause, nature and extent of the subsequent interventions, and postoperative patient satisfaction. MATERIAL AND METHODS The D. A. F.'s total ankle replacement register is a nation-wide, voluntary registry. After giving written informed consent, the patients can be added to the database by participating providers. Data are collected during hospital stay for surgical treatment, during routine follow-up inspections and in the context of revision surgery. The information can be submitted in paper-based or online formats. The survey instruments are available as minimum data sets or scientific questionnaires which include patient-reported outcome measures (PROMs). The pseudonymous clinical data are collected and evaluated at the Institute for Evaluative Research in Medicine, University of Bern/Switzerland (IEFM). The patient-related data remain on the register's module server in North Rhine-Westphalia, Germany. The registry's methodology as well as the results of the revisions and patient satisfaction for 115 patients with a two year follow-up period are presented. Statistical analyses are performed with SAS™ (Version 9.4, SAS Institute, Inc., Cary, NC, USA). RESULTS About 2½ years after the register was launched there are 621 datasets on primary implantations, 1,427 on follow-ups and 121 records on re-operation available. 49 % of the patients received their implants due to post-traumatic osteoarthritis, 27 % because of a primary osteoarthritis and 15 % of patients suffered from a rheumatic disease. More than 90 % of the primary interventions proceeded without complications. Subsequent interventions were recorded for 84 patients, which corresponds to a rate of 13.5 % with respect to the primary implantations. It should be noted that these secondary procedures also include two-stage procedures not due to a complication. "True revisions" are interventions with exchange of components due to mechanical complications and/or infection and were present in 7.6 % of patients. 415 of the patients commented on their satisfaction with the operative result during the last follow-up: 89.9 % of patients evaluate their outcome as excellent or good, 9.4 % as moderate and only 0.7 % (3 patients) as poor. In these three cases a component loosening or symptomatic USG osteoarthritis was present. Two-year follow-up data using the American Orthopedic Foot and Ankle Society Ankle and Hindfoot Scale (AOFAS-AHS) are already available for 115 patients. The median AOFAS-AHS score increased from 33 points preoperatively to more than 80 points three to six months postoperatively. This increase remained nearly constant over the entire two-year follow-up period. CONCLUSION Covering less than 10 % of the approximately 240 providers in Germany and approximately 12 % of the annually implanted total ankle-replacements, the D. A. F.-register is still far from being seen as a national registry. Nevertheless, geographical coverage and inclusion of "high-" (more than 100 total ankle replacements a year) and "low-volume surgeons" (less than 5 total ankle replacements a year) make the register representative for Germany. The registry data show that the number of subsequent interventions and in particular the "true revision" procedures are markedly lower than the 20 % often postulated in the literature. In addition, a high level of patient satisfaction over the short and medium term is recorded. From the perspective of the authors, these results indicate that total ankle arthroplasty - given a correct indication and appropriate selection of patients - is not inferior to an ankle arthrodesis concerning patients' satisfaction and function. First valid survival rates can be expected about 10 years after the register's start.

What is the frequency of nerve injuries associated with acetabular fractures?

BACKGROUND Acetabular fractures and surgical interventions used to treat them can result in nerve injuries. To date, only small case studies have tried to explore the frequency of nerve injuries and their association with patient and treatment characteristics. High-quality data on the risk of traumatic and iatrogenic nerve lesions and their epidemiology in relation to different fracture types and surgical approaches are lacking. QUESTIONS/PURPOSES The purpose of this study was to determine (1) the proportion of patients who develop nerve injuries after acetabular fracture; (2) which fracture type(s) are associated with increased nerve injury risk; and (3) which surgical approach was associated with the highest proportion of patients developing nerve injuries using data from the German Pelvic Trauma Registry. Two secondary aims were (4) to assess hospital volume-nerve-injury relationship; and (5) internal data validity. METHODS Between March 2001 and June 2012, 2236 patients with acetabular fractures were entered into a prospectively maintained registry from 29 hospitals; of those, 2073 (92.7%) had complete records on the endpoints of interest in this retrospective study and were analyzed. The neurological status in these patients was captured at their admission and at the discharge. A total of 1395 of 2073 (67%) patients underwent surgery, and the proportions of intervention-related and other hospital-acquired nerve injuries were obtained. Overall proportions of patients developing nerve injuries, risk based on fracture type, and risk of surgical approach type were analyzed. RESULTS The proportion of patients being diagnosed with nerve injuries at hospital admission was 4% (76 of 2073) and at discharge 7% (134 or 2073). Patients with fractures of the "posterior wall" (relative risk [RR], 2.0; 95% confidence interval [CI], 1.4-2.8; p=0.001), "posterior column and posterior wall" (RR, 2.9; CI, 1.6-5.0; p=0.002), and "transverse+posterior wall" fracture (RR, 2.1; CI, 1.3-3.5; p=0.010) were more likely to have nerve injuries at hospital discharge. The proportion of patients with intervention-related nerve injuries and that of patients with other hospital-acquired nerve injuries was 2% (24 of 1395 and 46 of 2073, respectively). They both were associated with the Kocher-Langenbeck approach (RR, 3.0; CI, 1.4-6.2; p=0.006; and RR, 2.4; CI, 1.4-4.3; p=0.004, respectively). CONCLUSIONS Acetabular fractures with the involvement of posterior wall were most commonly accompanied with nerve injuries. The data suggest also that Kocher-Langenbeck approach to the pelvic ring is associated with a higher risk of perioperative nerve injuries. Trauma surgeons should be aware of common nerve injuries, particularly in posterior wall fractures. The results of the study should help provide patients with more exact information on the risk of perioperative nerve injuries in acetabular fractures. LEVEL OF EVIDENCE Level III, therapeutic study. See Guidelines for Authors for a complete description of levels of evidence.

Safety and efficacy of imatinib in CML over a period of 10 years: data from the randomized CML-study IV.

Tyrosine kinase inhibitors (TKI) have changed the natural course of chronic myeloid leukemia (CML). With the advent of second-generation TKI safety and efficacy issues have gained interest. The randomized CML - Study IV was used for a long-term evaluation of imatinib (IM). 1503 patients have received IM, 1379 IM monotherapy. After a median observation of 7.1 years, 965 patients (64%) still received IM. At 10 years, progression-free survival was 82%, overall survival 84%, 59% achieved MR(5), 72% MR(4.5), 81% MR(4), 89% major molecular remission and 92% MR(2) (molecular equivalent to complete cytogenetic remission). All response levels were reached faster with IM800 mg except MR(5). Eight-year probabilities of adverse drug reactions (ADR) were 76%, of grades 3-4 22%, of non-hematologic 73%, and of hematologic 28%. More ADR were observed with IM800 mg and IM400 mg plus interferon α (IFN). Most patients had their first ADR early with decreasing frequency later on. No new late toxicity was observed. ADR to IM are frequent, but mostly mild and manageable, also with IM 800 mg and IM 400 mg+IFN. The deep molecular response rates indicate that most patients are candidates for IM discontinuation. After 10 years, IM continues to be an excellent initial choice for most patients with CML.Leukemia advance online publication, 13 March 2015; doi:10.1038/leu.2015.36.

Cardiac medication during pregnancy, data from the ROPAC

BACKGROUND Data on pharmacological management during pregnancy are scarce. The aim of this study was to describe the type and frequency of cardiac medication used in pregnancy in patients with cardiovascular disease and to assess the relationship between medication use and fetal outcome. METHODS AND RESULTS Between 2007 and 2011 sixty hospitals in 28 countries enrolled 1321 pregnant women. All patients had structural heart disease (congenital 66%, valvular 25% or cardiomyopathy 7% or ischemic 2%). Medication was used by 424 patients (32%) at some time during pregnancy: 22% used beta-blockers, 8% antiplatelet agents, 7% diuretics, 2.8% ACE inhibitors and 0.5% statins. Compared to those who did not take medication, patients taking medication were older, more likely to be parous, have valvular heart disease and were less often in sinus rhythm. The odds ratio of fetal adverse events in users versus non-users of medication was 2.6 (95% CI 2.0-3.4) and after adjustment for cardiac and obstetric parameter was 2.0 (95% CI 1.4-2.7). Babies of patients treated with beta-blockers had a significantly lower adjusted birth weight (3140 versus 3240 g, p = 0.002). The highest rate of fetal malformation was found in patients taking ACE inhibitors (8%). CONCLUSION One third of pregnant women with heart disease used cardiac medication during their pregnancy, which was associated with an increased rate of adverse fetal events. Birth weight was significantly lower in children of patients taking beta-blockers. A randomized trial is needed to distinguish the effects of the medication from the effects of the underlying maternal cardiac condition.

Glycemic Variability Is Associated with Frequency of Blood Glucose Testing and Bolus: Post Hoc Analysis Results from the ProAct Study

ntroduction: The ProAct study has shown that a pump switch to the Accu-Chek® Combo system (Roche Diagnostics Deutschland GmbH, Mannheim, Germany) in type 1 diabetes patients results in stable glycemic control with significant improvements in glycated hemoglobin (HbA1c) in patients with unsatisfactory baseline HbA1c and shorter pump usage time. Patients and Methods: In this post hoc analysis of the ProAct database, we investigated the glycemic control and glycemic variability at baseline by determination of several established parameters and scores (HbA1c, hypoglycemia frequency, J-score, Hypoglycemia and Hyperglycemia Indexes, and Index of Glycemic Control) in participants with different daily bolus and blood glucose measurement frequencies (less than four day, four or five per day, and more than five per day, in both cases). The data were derived from up to 299 patients (172 females, 127 males; age [mean±SD], 39.4±15.2 years; pump treatment duration, 7.0±5.2 years). Results: Participants with frequent glucose readings had better glycemic control than those with few readings (more than five readings per day vs. less than four readings per day: HbA1c, 7.2±1.1% vs. 8.0±0.9%; mean daily blood glucose, 151±22 mg/dL vs. 176±30 mg/dL; percentage of readings per month >300 mg/dL, 10±4% vs. 14±5%; percentage of readings in target range [80-180 mg/dL], 59% vs. 48% [P<0.05 in all cases]) and had a lower glycemic variability (J-score, 49±13 vs. 71±25 [P<0.05]; Hyperglycemia Index, 0.9±0.5 vs. 1.9±1.2 [P<0.05]; Index of Glycemic Control, 1.9±0.8 vs. 3.1±1.6 [P<0.05]; Hypoglycemia Index, 0.9±0.8 vs. 1.2±1.3 [not significant]). Frequent self-monitoring of blood glucose was associated with a higher number of bolus applications (6.1±2.2 boluses/day vs. 4.5±2.0 boluses/day [P<0.05]). Therefore, a similar but less pronounced effect on glycemic variability in favor of more daily bolus applications was observed (more than five vs. less than four bolues per day: J-score, 57±17 vs. 63±25 [not significant]; Hypoglycemia Index, 1.0±1.0 vs. 1.5±1.4 [P<0.05]; Hyperglycemia Index, 1.3±0.6 vs. 1.6±1.1 [not significant]; Index of Glycemic Control, 2.3±1.1 vs. 3.1±1.7 [P<0.05]). Conclusions: Pump users who perform frequent daily glucose readings have a better glycemic control with lower glycemic variability.

8p23 beta-defensin copy number determination by single-locus pseudogene-based paralog ratio tests risk bias due to low-frequency sequence variations.

BACKGROUND The copy number variation (CNV) in beta-defensin genes (DEFB) on human chromosome 8p23 has been proposed to contribute to the phenotypic differences in inflammatory diseases. However, determination of exact DEFB CN is a major challenge in association studies. Quantitative real-time PCR (qPCR), paralog ratio tests (PRT) and multiplex ligation-dependent probe amplification (MLPA) have been extensively used to determine DEFB CN in different laboratories, but inter-method inconsistencies were observed frequently. In this study we asked which one is superior among the three methods for DEFB CN determination. RESULTS We developed a clustering approach for MLPA and PRT to statistically correlate data from a single experiment. Then we compared qPCR, a newly designed PRT and MLPA for DEFB CN determination in 285 DNA samples. We found MLPA had the best convergence and clustering results of the raw data and the highest call rate. In addition, the concordance rates between MLPA or PRT and qPCR (32.12% and 37.99%, respectively) were unacceptably low with underestimated CN by qPCR. Concordance rate between MLPA and PRT (90.52%) was high but PRT systematically underestimated CN by one in a subset of samples. In these samples a sequence variant which caused complete PCR dropout of the respective DEFB cluster copies was found in one primer binding site of one of the targeted paralogous pseudogenes. CONCLUSION MLPA is superior to PRT and even more to qPCR for DEFB CN determination. Although the applied PRT provides in most cases reliable results, such a test is particularly sensitive to low-frequency sequence variations preferably accumulating in loci like pseudogenes which are most likely not under selective pressure. In the light of the superior performance of multiplex assays, the drawbacks of such single PRTs could be overcome by combining more test markers.

Achieving a more realistic assessment of rockfall hazards by coupling three-dimensional process models and field-based tree-ring data

Sound knowledge of the spatial and temporal patterns of rockfalls is fundamental for the management of this very common hazard in mountain environments. Process-based, three-dimensional simulation models are nowadays capable of reproducing the spatial distribution of rockfall occurrences with reasonable accuracy through the simulation of numerous individual trajectories on highly-resolved digital terrain models. At the same time, however, simulation models typically fail to quantify the ‘real’ frequency of rockfalls (in terms of return intervals). The analysis of impact scars on trees, in contrast, yields real rockfall frequencies, but trees may not be present at the location of interest and rare trajectories may not necessarily be captured due to the limited age of forest stands. In this article, we demonstrate that the coupling of modeling with tree-ring techniques may overcome the limitations inherent to both approaches. Based on the analysis of 64 cells (40 m × 40 m) of a rockfall slope located above a 1631-m long road section in the Swiss Alps, we illustrate results from 488 rockfalls detected in 1260 trees. We illustrate that tree impact data cannot only be used (i) to reconstruct the real frequency of rockfalls for individual cells, but that they also serve (ii) the calibration of the rockfall model Rockyfor3D, as well as (iii) the transformation of simulated trajectories into real frequencies. Calibrated simulation results are in good agreement with real rockfall frequencies and exhibit significant differences in rockfall activity between the cells (zones) along the road section. Real frequencies, expressed as rock passages per meter road section, also enable quantification and direct comparison of the hazard potential between the zones. The contribution provides an approach for hazard zoning procedures that complements traditional methods with a quantification of rockfall frequencies in terms of return intervals through a systematic inclusion of impact records in trees.

Doppler Orbit Determination of Deep Space Probes by the Bernese GNSS Software: First Results of the Combined Orbit Determination from DSN and Inter-Satellite Ka-Band Data from the Grail Mission

Navigation of deep space probes is most commonly operated using the spacecraft Doppler tracking technique. Orbital parameters are determined from a series of repeated measurements of the frequency shift of a microwave carrier over a given integration time. Currently, both ESA and NASA operate antennas at several sites around the world to ensure the tracking of deep space probes. Just a small number of software packages are nowadays used to process Doppler observations. The Astronomical Institute of the University of Bern (AIUB) has recently started the development of Doppler data processing capabilities within the Bernese GNSS Software. This software has been extensively used for Precise Orbit Determination of Earth orbiting satellites using GPS data collected by on-board receivers and for subsequent determination of the Earth gravity field. In this paper, we present the currently achieved status of the Doppler data modeling and orbit determination capabilities in the Bernese GNSS Software using GRAIL data. In particular we will focus on the implemented orbit determination procedure used for the combined analysis of Doppler and intersatellite Ka-band data. We show that even at this earlier stage of the development we can achieve an accuracy of few mHz on two-way S-band Doppler observation and of 2 µm/s on KBRR data from the GRAIL primary mission phase.