Seasonal Dynamic Factor Analysis and Bootstrap Inference: Application to Electricity Market Forecasting

In this work, we propose the Seasonal Dynamic Factor Analysis (SeaDFA), an extension of Nonstationary Dynamic Factor Analysis, through which one can deal with dimensionality reduction in vectors of time series in such a way that both common and specific components are extracted. Furthermore, common factors are able to capture not only regular dynamics (stationary or not) but also seasonal ones, by means of the common factors following a multiplicative seasonal VARIMA(p, d, q) × (P, D, Q)s model. Additionally, a bootstrap procedure that does not need a backward representation of the model is proposed to be able to make inference for all the parameters in the model. A bootstrap scheme developed for forecasting includes uncertainty due to parameter estimation, allowing enhanced coverage of forecasting intervals. A challenging application is provided. The new proposed model and a bootstrap scheme are applied to an innovative subject in electricity markets: the computation of long-term point forecasts and prediction intervals of electricity prices. Several appendices with technical details, an illustrative example, and an additional table are available online as Supplementary Materials.

Normalización del análisis de la piedra y conservación del patrimonio cultural. The Standardization of Stone Analysis and Conservation of Cultural Heritage

La normalización de los métodos de análisis y de los principales aspectos relacionados con la conservación de los bienes culturales ha empezado en 2004 con la creación del comité europeo de normalización, CEN/TC 346 Conservation of Cultural Property, que tiene la responsabilidad no solamente de redactar protocolos de ensayos en laboratorio, sino también proponer las recomendaciones más adecuadas para designarlos de forma consensual y conservarlos de la forma más apropiada. Se comentan los aspectos relacionados con el origen de estas normas, el trabajo desarrollado y que muchas de ellas, aunque no estén dirigidas específicamente a la piedra, tienen en cuenta la presencia de este material en objetos arqueológicos, obras de arte, estructuras de fábricas y elementos ornamentales.

Analysis and 2D Simulation of a Hexapod Robot Leg for Remote Exploration

A walking machine is a wheeled rover alternative, well suited for work in an unstructured environment and specially in abrupt terrain. They have some drawback like speed and power consumption, but they can achieve complex movements and protrude very little the environment they are working on. The locomotion system is determined by the terrain conditions and, in our case, this legged design has been chosen based in a working area like Rio Tinto in the South of Spain, which is a river area with abrupt terrain. A walking robot with so many degrees of freedom can be a challenge when dealing with the analysis and simulations of the legs. This paper shows how to deal with the kinematical analysis of the equations of a hexapod robot based on a design developed by the Center of Astrobiology INTA-CSIC following the classical formulation of equations

Analysis and design of a thrombectomy device by using simulation techniques

Purpose: In this work, we present the analysis, design and optimization of one experimental device recently developed in the UK, called the 'GP' Thrombus Aspiration Device (GPTAD). This device has been designed to remove blood clots without the need to make contact with the clot itself thereby potentially reducing the risk of problems such as downstream embolisation. Method: To obtain the minimum pressure necessary to extract the clot and to optimize the device, we have simulated the performance of the GPTAD analysing the resistances, compliances and inertances effects. We model a range of diameters for the GPTAD considering different forces of adhesion of the blood clot to the artery wall, and different lengths of blood clot. In each case we determine the optimum pressure required to extract the blood clot from the artery using the GPTAD, which is attached at its proximal end to a suction pump. Result: We then compare the results of our mathematical modelling to measurements made in laboratory using plastic tube models of arteries of comparable diameter. We use abattoir porcine blood clots that are extracted using the GPTAD. The suction pressures required for such clot extraction in the plastic tube models compare favourably with those predicted by the mathematical modelling. Discussion & Conclusion: We conclude therefore that the mathematical modelling is a useful technique in predicting the performance of the GPTAD and may potentially be used in optimising the design of the device.

Analysis and optimization of propagation losses in LiNbO3 optical waveguides produced by swift heavy-ion irradiation

The propagation losses (PL) of lithium niobate optical planar waveguides fabricated by swift heavy-ion irradiation (SHI), an alternative to conventional ion implantation, have been investigated and optimized. For waveguide fabrication, congruently melting LiNbO3 substrates were irradiated with F ions at 20 MeV or 30 MeV and fluences in the range 1013–1014 cm−2. The influence of the temperature and time of post-irradiation annealing treatments has been systematically studied. Optimum propagation losses lower than 0.5 dB/cm have been obtained for both TE and TM modes, after a two-stage annealing treatment at 350 and 375∘C. Possible loss mechanisms are discussed.

Analysis and comparison of the national and regional emission inventories for the Greater Madrid Region through air quality simulations

Este trabajo presenta un análisis y una metodología para la armonización de inventarios de emisiones utilizados en modelos de calidad del aire.

Combining static analysis and profiling for estimating execution times

Effective static analyses have been proposed which infer bounds on the number of resolutions. These have the advantage of being independent from the platform on which the programs are executed and have been shown to be useful in a number of applications, such as granularity control in parallel execution. On the other hand, in distributed computation scenarios where platforms with different capabilities come into play, it is necessary to express costs in metrics that include the characteristics of the platform. In particular, it is specially interesting to be able to infer upper and lower bounds on actual execution times. With this objective in mind, we propose an approach which combines compile-time analysis for cost bounds with a one-time profiling of a given platform in order to determine the valúes of certain parameters for that platform. These parameters calibrate a cost model which, from then on, is able to compute statically time bound functions for procedures and to predict with a significant degree of accuracy the execution times of such procedures in that concrete platform. The approach has been implemented and integrated in the CiaoPP system.

A generic framework for the analysis and specialization of kogic programs

The relationship between abstract interpretation [2] and partial evaluation [5] has received considerable attention and (partial) integrations have been proposed starting from both the partial deduction (see e.g. [6] and its references) and abstract interpretation perspectives. Abstract interpretation-based analyzers (such as the CiaoPP analyzer [9,4]) generally compute a program analysis graph [1] in order to propagate (abstract) call and success information by performing fixpoint computations when needed. On the other hand, partial deduction methods [7] incorporate powerful techniques for on-line specialization including (concrete) call propagation and unfolding.