A BAYESIAN HIERARCHICAL MODEL FOR CONSTRAINED DISTRIBUTED LAG FUNCTIONS: ESTIMATING THE TIME COURSE OF HOSPITALIZATION ASSOCIATED WITH AIR POLLUTION EXPOSURE

Numerous time series studies have provided strong evidence of an association between increased levels of ambient air pollution and increased levels of hospital admissions, typically at 0, 1, or 2 days after an air pollution episode. An important research aim is to extend existing statistical models so that a more detailed understanding of the time course of hospitalization after exposure to air pollution can be obtained. Information about this time course, combined with prior knowledge about biological mechanisms, could provide the basis for hypotheses concerning the mechanism by which air pollution causes disease. Previous studies have identified two important methodological questions: (1) How can we estimate the shape of the distributed lag between increased air pollution exposure and increased mortality or morbidity? and (2) How should we estimate the cumulative population health risk from short-term exposure to air pollution? Distributed lag models are appropriate tools for estimating air pollution health effects that may be spread over several days. However, estimation for distributed lag models in air pollution and health applications is hampered by the substantial noise in the data and the inherently weak signal that is the target of investigation. We introduce an hierarchical Bayesian distributed lag model that incorporates prior information about the time course of pollution effects and combines information across multiple locations. The model has a connection to penalized spline smoothing using a special type of penalty matrix. We apply the model to estimating the distributed lag between exposure to particulate matter air pollution and hospitalization for cardiovascular and respiratory disease using data from a large United States air pollution and hospitalization database of Medicare enrollees in 94 counties covering the years 1999-2002.

Seasonal Analyses of Air Pollution and Mortality in 100 U.S. Cities

Time series models relating short-term changes in air pollution levels to daily mortality counts typically assume that the effects of air pollution on the log relative rate of mortality do not vary with time. However, these short-term effects might plausibly vary by season. Changes in the sources of air pollution and meteorology can result in changes in characteristics of the air pollution mixture across seasons. The authors develop Bayesian semi-parametric hierarchical models for estimating time-varying effects of pollution on mortality in multi-site time series studies. The methods are applied to the updated National Morbidity and Mortality Air Pollution Study database for the period 1987--2000, which includes data for 100 U.S. cities. At the national level, a 10 micro-gram/m3 increase in PM(10) at lag 1 is associated with a 0.15 (95% posterior interval: -0.08, 0.39),0.14 (-0.14, 0.42), 0.36 (0.11, 0.61), and 0.14 (-0.06, 0.34) percent increase in mortality for winter, spring, summer, and fall, respectively. An analysis by geographical regions finds a strong seasonal pattern in the northeast (with a peak in summer) and little seasonal variation in the southern regions of the country. These results provide useful information for understanding particle toxicity and guiding future analyses of particle constituent data.

MORTALITY IN THE MEDICARE POPULATION AND CHRONIC EXPOSURE TO FINE PARTICULATE AIR POLLUTION

Prospective cohort studies have provided evidence on longer-term mortality risks of fine particulate matter (PM2.5), but due to their complexity and costs, only a few have been conducted. By linking monitoring data to the U.S. Medicare system by county of residence, we developed a retrospective cohort study, the Medicare Air Pollution Cohort Study (MCAPS), comprising over 20 million enrollees in the 250 largest counties during 2000-2002. We estimated log-linear regression models having as outcome the age-specific mortality rate for each county and as the main predictor, the average level for the study period 2000. Area-level covariates were used to adjust for socio-economic status and smoking. We reported results under several degrees of adjustment for spatial confounding and with stratification into by eastern, central and western counties. We estimated that a 10 µg/m3 increase in PM25 is associated with a 7.6% increase in mortality (95% CI: 4.4 to 10.8%). We found a stronger association in the eastern counties than nationally, with no evidence of an association in western counties. When adjusted for spatial confounding, the estimated log-relative risks drop by 50%. We demonstrated the feasibility of using Medicare data to establish cohorts for follow-up for effects of air pollution. Particulate matter (PM) air pollution is a global public health problem (1). In developing countries, levels of airborne particles still reach concentrations at which serious health consequences are well-documented; in developed countries, recent epidemiologic evidence shows continued adverse effects, even though particle levels have declined in the last two decades (2-6). Increased mortality associated with higher levels of PM air pollution has been of particular concern, giving an imperative for stronger protective regulations (7). Evidence on PM and health comes from studies of acute and chronic adverse effects (6). The London Fog of 1952 provides dramatic evidence of the unacceptable short-term risk of extremely high levels of PM air pollution (8-10); multi-site time-series studies of daily mortality show that far lower levels of particles are still associated with short-term risk (5)(11-13). Cohort studies provide complementary evidence on the longer-term risks of PM air pollution, indicating the extent to which exposure reduces life expectancy. The design of these studies involves follow-up of cohorts for mortality over periods of years to decades and an assessment of mortality risk in association with estimated long-term exposure to air pollution (2-4;14-17). Because of the complexity and costs of such studies, only a small number have been conducted. The most rigorously executed, including the Harvard Six Cities Study and the American Cancer Society’s (ACS) Cancer Prevention Study II, have provided generally consistent evidence for an association of long- term exposure to particulate matter air pollution with increased all-cause and cardio-respiratory mortality (2,4,14,15). Results from these studies have been used in risk assessments conducted for setting the U.S. National Ambient Air Quality Standard (NAAQS) for PM and for estimating the global burden of disease attributable to air pollution (18,19). Additional prospective cohort studies are necessary, however, to confirm associations between long-term exposure to PM and mortality, to broaden the populations studied, and to refine estimates by regions across which particle composition varies. Toward this end, we have used data from the U.S. Medicare system, which covers nearly all persons 65 years of age and older in the United States. We linked Medicare mortality data to (particulate matter less than 2.5 µm in aerodynamic diameter) air pollution monitoring data to create a new retrospective cohort study, the Medicare Air Pollution Cohort Study (MCAPS), consisting of 20 million persons from 250 counties and representing about 50% of the US population of elderly living in urban settings. In this paper, we report on the relationship between longer-term exposure to PM2.5 and mortality risk over the period 2000 to 2002 in the MCAPS.

Methylprednisolone Fails to Preserve Pulmonary Surfactant and Blood-Air Barrier Integrity in a Porcine Cardiopulmonary Bypass Model

BACKGROUND: Pulmonary inflammation after cardiac surgery with cardiopulmonary bypass (CPB) has been linked to respiratory dysfunction and ultrastructural injury. Whether pretreatment with methylprednisolone (MP) can preserve pulmonary surfactant and blood-air barrier, thereby improving pulmonary function, was tested in a porcine CPB-model. MATERIALS AND METHODS: After randomizing pigs to placebo (PLA; n = 5) or MP (30 mg/kg, MP; n = 5), animals were subjected to 3 h of CPB with 1 h of cardioplegic cardiac arrest. Hemodynamic data, plasma tumor necrosis factor-alpha (TNF-alpha, ELISA), and pulmonary function parameters were assessed before, 15 min after CPB, and 8 h after CPB. Lung biopsies were analyzed for TNF-alpha (Western blot) or blood-air barrier and surfactant morphology (electron microscopy, stereology). RESULTS: Systemic TNF-alpha increased and cardiac index decreased at 8 h after CPB in PLA (P < 0.05 versus pre-CPB), but not in MP (P < 0.05 versus PLA). In both groups, at 8 h after CPB, PaO(2) and PaO(2)/FiO(2) were decreased and arterio-alveolar oxygen difference and pulmonary vascular resistance were increased (P < 0.05 versus baseline). Postoperative pulmonary TNF-alpha remained unchanged in both groups, but tended to be higher in PLA (P = 0.06 versus MP). The volume fraction of inactivated intra-alveolar surfactant was increased in PLA (58 +/- 17% versus 83 +/- 6%) and MP (55 +/- 18% versus 80 +/- 17%) after CPB (P < 0.05 versus baseline for both groups). Profound blood-air barrier injury was present in both groups at 8 h as indicated by an increased blood-air barrier integrity score (PLA: 1.28 +/- 0.03 versus 1.70 +/- 0.1; MP: 1.27 +/- 0.08 versus 1.81 +/- 0.1; P < 0.05). CONCLUSION: Despite reduction of the systemic inflammatory response and pulmonary TNF-alpha generation, methylprednisolone fails to decrease pulmonary TNF-alpha and to preserve pulmonary surfactant morphology, blood-air barrier integrity, and pulmonary function after CPB.

Impact of preservation solution on the extent of blood-air barrier damage and edema formation in experimental lung transplantation

A major aim in lung transplantation is to prevent the loss of structural integrity due to ischemia and reperfusion (I/R) injury. Preservation solutions protect the lung against I/R injury to a variable extent. We compared the influence of two extracellular-type preservation solutions (Perfadex, or PX, and Celsior, or CE) on the morphological alterations induced by I/R. Pigs were randomly assigned to sham (n = 4), PX (n = 5), or CE (n = 2) group. After flush perfusion with PX or CE, donor lungs were excised and stored for 27 hr at 4 degrees C. The left donor lung was implanted into the recipient, reperfused for 6 hr, and, afterward, prepared for light and electron microscopy. Intra-alveolar, septal, and peribronchovascular edema as well as the integrity of the blood-air barrier were determined stereologically. Intra-alveolar edema was more pronounced in CE (219.80 +/- 207.55 ml) than in PX (31.46 +/- 15.75 ml). Peribronchovascular (sham: 13.20 +/- 4.99 ml; PX: 15.57 +/- 5.53 ml; CE: 31.56 +/- 5.78 ml) and septal edema (thickness of alveolar septal interstitium, sham: 98 +/- 33 nm; PX: 84 +/- 8 nm; CE: 249 +/- 85 nm) were only found in CE. The blood-air barrier was similarly well preserved in sham and PX but showed larger areas of swollen and fragmented epithelium or endothelium in CE. The present study shows that Perfadex effectively prevents intra-alveolar, septal, and peribronchovascular edema formation as well as injury of the blood-air barrier during I/R. Celsior was not effective in preserving the lung from morphological I/R injury.

Air bells of water spiders are an extended phenotype modified in response to gas composition

The water spider Argyroneta aquatica (Clerck) is the only spider that spends its whole life under water. Water spiders keep an air bubble around their body for breathing and build under-water air bells, which they use for shelter and raising offspring, digesting and consuming prey, moulting, depositing eggs and sperm, and copulating. It is unclear whether these bells are an important oxygen reservoir for breathing under water, or whether they serve mainly to create water-free space for feeding and reproduction. In this study, we manipulated the composition of the gas inside the bell of female water spiders to test whether they monitor the quality of this gas, and replenish oxygen if required. We exchanged the entire gas in the bell either with pure O(2), pure CO(2), or with ambient air as control, and monitored behavioural responses. The test spiders surfaced and replenished air more often in the CO(2) treatment than in the O(2) treatment, and they increased bell building behaviour. In addition to active oxygen regulation, they monitored and adjusted the bells by adding silk. These results show that water spiders use the air bell as an oxygen reservoir, and that it functions as an external lung, which renders it essential for living under water permanently. A. aquatica is the only animal that collects, transports, and stores air, and monitors its property for breathing, which is an adaptive response of a terrestrial animal to the colonization of an aquatic habitat. J. Exp. Zool. 307A:549-555, 2007. (c) 2007 Wiley-Liss, Inc.

Resistive polymer versus forced-air warming: comparable heat transfer and core rewarming rates in volunteers

BACKGROUND: Mild perioperative hypothermia increases the risk of several severe complications. Perioperative patient warming to preserve normothermia has thus become routine, with forced-air warming being used most often. In previous studies, various resistive warming systems have shown mixed results in comparison with forced-air. Recently, a polymer-based resistive patient warming system has been developed. We compared the efficacy of a standard forced-air warming system with the resistive polymer system in volunteers. METHODS: Eight healthy volunteers participated, each on two separate study days. Unanesthetized volunteers were cooled to a core temperature (tympanic membrane) of 34 degrees C by application of forced-air at 10 degrees C and a circulating-water mattress at 4 degrees C. Meperidine and buspirone were administered to prevent shivering. In a randomly designated order, volunteers were then rewarmed (until their core temperatures reached 36 degrees C) with one of the following active warming systems: (1) forced-air warming (Bair Hugger warming cover #300, blower #750, Arizant, Eden Prairie, MN); or (2) polymer fiber resistive warming (HotDog whole body blanket, HotDog standard controller, Augustine Biomedical, Eden Prairie, MN). The alternate system was used on the second study day. Metabolic heat production, cutaneous heat loss, and core temperature were measured. RESULTS: Metabolic heat production and cutaneous heat loss were similar with each system. After a 30-min delay, core temperature increased nearly linearly by 0.98 (95% confidence interval 0.91-1.04) degrees C/h with forced-air and by 0.92 (0.85-1.00) degrees C/h with resistive heating (P = 0.4). CONCLUSIONS: Heating efficacy and core rewarming rates were similar with full-body forced-air and full-body resistive polymer heating in healthy volunteers.

Air pollution during pregnancy and lung function in newborns: a birth cohort study

Post-natal exposure to air pollution is associated with diminished lung growth during school age. The current authors aimed to determine whether pre-natal exposure to air pollution is associated with lung function changes in the newborn. In a prospective birth cohort of 241 healthy term-born neonates, tidal breathing, lung volume, ventilation inhomogeneity and exhaled nitric oxide (eNO) were measured during unsedated sleep at age 5 weeks. Maternal exposure to particles with a 50% cut-off aerodynamic diameter of 10 microm (PM(10)), nitrogen dioxide (NO(2)) and ozone (O(3)), and distance to major roads were estimated during pregnancy. The association between these exposures and lung function was assessed using linear regression. Minute ventilation was higher in infants with higher pre-natal PM(10) exposure (24.9 mL x min(-1) per microg x m(-3) PM(10)). The eNO was increased in infants with higher pre-natal NO(2) exposure (0.98 ppb per microg x m(-3) NO(2)). Post-natal exposure to air pollution did not modify these findings. No association was found for pre-natal exposure to O(3) and lung function parameters. The present results suggest that pre-natal exposure to air pollution might be associated with higher respiratory need and airway inflammation in newborns. Such alterations during early lung development may be important regarding long-term respiratory morbidity.

Nitrogen oxides in the firn air at Summit, Greenland

Measurements of NOx within the snowpack at Summit, Greenland were carried out from June 2008 to July 2010, using a novel system to sample firn air with minimal disruption of the snowpack. These long-term measurements were motivated by the need of improving the representation of air-snow interactions in global models. Results indicated that the NOx budget within the snowpack was on the order of 550 pptv as maximum, and was constituted primarily for NO2. NOx production was observed within the first 50 cm of the snowpack during the sunlight season between February and August. Presence of NOx at larger depths was attributed to high speed wind and vertical transport processes. Production of NO correlated with the seasonal incoming radiation profile, while NO2 maximum was observed in April. These measurements constitute the larger data set of NOx within the firn and will improve the representation of processes driving snow photochemistry at Summit.

Comparison of common dredging equipment air emissions

The purpose of this study is to provide a procedure to include emissions to the atmosphere resulting from the combustion of diesel fuel during dredging operations into the decision-making process of dredging equipment selection. The proposed procedure is demonstrated for typical dredging methods and data from the Illinois Waterway as performed by the U.S. Army Corps of Engineers, Rock Island District. The equipment included in this study is a 16-inch cutterhead pipeline dredge and a mechanical bucket dredge used during the 2005 dredging season on the Illinois Waterway. Considerable effort has been put forth to identify and reduce environmental impacts from dredging operations. Though environmental impacts of dredging have been studied no efforts have been applied to the evaluation of air emissions from comparable types of dredging equipment, as in this study. By identifying the type of dredging equipment with the lowest air emissions, when cost, site conditions, and equipment availability are comparable, adverse environmental impacts can be minimized without compromising the dredging project. A total of 48 scenarios were developed by varying the dredged material quantity, transport distance, and production rates. This produced an “envelope” of results applicable to a broad range of site conditions. Total diesel fuel consumed was calculated using standard cost estimating practices as defined in the U.S. Army Corps of Engineers Construction Equipment Ownership and Operating Expense Schedule (USACE, 2005). The diesel fuel usage was estimated for all equipment used to mobilize and/or operate each dredging crew for every scenario. A Limited Life Cycle Assessment (LCA) was used to estimate the air emissions from two comparable dredging operations utilizing SimaPro LCA software. An Environmental Impact Single Score (EISS) was the SimaPro output selected for comparison with the cost per CY of dredging, potential production rates, and transport distances to identify possible decision points. The total dredging time was estimated for each dredging crew and scenario. An average hourly cost for both dredging crews was calculated based on Rock Island District 2005 dredging season records (Graham 2007/08). The results from this study confirm commonly used rules of thumb in the dredging industry by indicating that mechanical bucket dredges are better suited for long transport distances and have lower air emissions and cost per CY for smaller quantities of dredged material. In addition, the results show that a cutterhead pipeline dredge would be preferable for moderate and large volumes of dredged material when no additional booster pumps are required. Finally, the results indicate that production rates can be a significant factor when evaluating the air emissions from comparable dredging equipment.

Integrated solar energy and absorption cooling model for HVAC (heating, ventilating, and air conditioning) applications in buildings

The demands in production and associate costs at power generation through non renewable resources are increasing at an alarming rate. Solar energy is one of the renewable resource that has the potential to minimize this increase. Utilization of solar energy have been concentrated mainly on heating application. The use of solar energy in cooling systems in building would benefit greatly achieving the goal of non-renewable energy minimization. The approaches of solar energy heating system research done by initiation such as University of Wisconsin at Madison and building heat flow model research conducted by Oklahoma State University can be used to develop and optimize solar cooling building system. The research uses two approaches to develop a Graphical User Interface (GUI) software for an integrated solar absorption cooling building model, which is capable of simulating and optimizing the absorption cooling system using solar energy as the main energy source to drive the cycle. The software was then put through a number of litmus test to verify its integrity. The litmus test was conducted on various building cooling system data sets of similar applications around the world. The output obtained from the software developed were identical with established experimental results from the data sets used. Software developed by other research are catered for advanced users. The software developed by this research is not only reliable in its code integrity but also through its integrated approach which is catered for new entry users. Hence, this dissertation aims to correctly model a complete building with the absorption cooling system in appropriate climate as a cost effective alternative to conventional vapor compression system.

DESIGN AND FABRICATION OF RESONANT GAS SENSOR FOR HIGH SENSITIVITY IN THE PRESENCE OF AIR DAMPING

Gas sensors have been used widely in different important area including industrial control, environmental monitoring, counter-terrorism and chemical production. Micro-fabrication offers a promising way to achieve sensitive and inexpensive gas sensors. Over the years, various MEMS gas sensors have been investigated and fabricated. One significant type of MEMS gas sensors is based on mass change detection and the integration with specific polymer. This dissertation aims to make contributions to the design and fabrication of MEMS resonant mass sensors with capacitance actuation and sensing that lead to improved sensitivity. To accomplish this goal, the research has several objectives: (1) Define an effective measure for evaluating the sensitivity of resonant mass devices; (2) Model the effects of air damping on microcantilevers and validate models using laser measurement system (3) Develop design guidelines for improving sensitivity in the presence of air damping; (4) Characterize the degree of uncertainty in performance arising from fabrication variation for one or more process sequences, and establish design guidelines for improved robustness. Work has been completed toward these objectives. An evaluation measure has been developed and compared to an RMS based measure. Analytic models of air damping for parallel plate that include holes are compared with a COMSOL model. The models have been used to identify cantilever design parameters that maximize sensitivity. Additional designs have been modeled with COMSOL and the development of an analytical model for Fixed-free cantilever geometries with holes has been developed. Two process flows have been implemented and compared. A number of cantilever designs have been fabricated and the uncertainty in process has been investigated. Variability from processing have been evaluated and characterized.