1000 resultados para Agriculture Forecasting


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The first ECMWF Seminar in 1975 (ECMWF, 1975) considered the scientific foundation of medium range weather forecasts. It may be of interest as a part of this lecture, to review some of the ideas and opinions expressed during this seminar.

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As laid out in its convention there are 8 different objectives for ECMWF. One of the major objectives will consist of the preparation, on a regular basis, of the data necessary for the preparation of medium-range weather forecasts. The interpretation of this item is that the Centre will make forecasts once a day for a prediction period of up to 10 days. It is also evident that the Centre should not carry out any real weather forecasting but merely disseminate to the member countries the basic forecasting parameters with an appropriate resolution in space and time. It follows from this that the forecasting system at the Centre must from the operational point of view be functionally integrated with the Weather Services of the Member Countries. The operational interface between ECMWF and the Member Countries must be properly specified in order to get a reasonable flexibility for both systems. The problem of making numerical atmospheric predictions for periods beyond 4-5 days differs substantially from 2-3 days forecasting. From the physical point we can define a medium range forecast as a forecast where the initial disturbances have lost their individual structure. However we are still interested to predict the atmosphere in a similar way as in short range forecasting which means that the model must be able to predict the dissipation and decay of the initial phenomena and the creation of new ones. With this definition, medium range forecasting is indeed very difficult and generally regarded as more difficult than extended forecasts, where we usually only predict time and space mean values. The predictability of atmospheric flow has been extensively studied during the last years in theoretical investigations and by numerical experiments. As has been discussed elsewhere in this publication (see pp 338 and 431) a 10-day forecast is apparently on the fringe of predictability.

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Requirements for research, practices and policies affecting soil management in relation to global food security are reviewed. Managing soil organic carbon (C) is central because soil organic matter influences numerous soil properties relevant to ecosystem functioning and crop growth. Even small changes in total C content can have disproportionately large impacts on key soil physical properties. Practices to encourage maintenance of soil C are important for ensuring sustainability of all soil functions. Soil is a major store of C within the biosphere – increases or decreases in this large stock can either mitigate or worsen climate change. Deforestation, conversion of grasslands to arable cropping and drainage of wetlands all cause emission of C; policies and international action to minimise these changes are urgently required. Sequestration of C in soil can contribute to climate change mitigation but the real impact of different options is often misunderstood. Some changes in management that are beneficial for soil C, increase emissions of nitrous oxide (a powerful greenhouse gas) thus cancelling the benefit. Research on soil physical processes and their interactions with roots can lead to improved and novel practices to improve crop access to water and nutrients. Increased understanding of root function has implications for selection and breeding of crops to maximise capture of water and nutrients. Roots are also a means of delivering natural plant-produced chemicals into soil with potentially beneficial impacts. These include biocontrol of soil-borne pests and diseases and inhibition of the nitrification process in soil (conversion of ammonium to nitrate) with possible benefits for improved nitrogen use efficiency and decreased nitrous oxide emission. The application of molecular methods to studies of soil organisms, and their interactions with roots, is providing new understanding of soil ecology and the basis for novel practical applications. Policy makers and those concerned with development of management approaches need to keep a watching brief on emerging possibilities from this fast-moving area of science. Nutrient management is a key challenge for global food production: there is an urgent need to increase nutrient availability to crops grown by smallholder farmers in developing countries. Many changes in practices including inter-cropping, inclusion of nitrogen-fixing crops, agroforestry and improved recycling have been clearly demonstrated to be beneficial: facilitating policies and practical strategies are needed to make these widely available, taking account of local economic and social conditions. In the longer term fertilizers will be essential for food security: policies and actions are needed to make these available and affordable to small farmers. In developed regions, and those developing rapidly such as China, strategies and policies to manage more precisely the necessarily large flows of nutrients in ways that minimise environmental damage are essential. A specific issue is to minimise emissions of nitrous oxide whilst ensuring sufficient nitrogen is available for adequate food production. Application of known strategies (through either regulation or education), technological developments, and continued research to improve understanding of basic processes will all play a part. Decreasing soil erosion is essential, both to maintain the soil resource and to minimise downstream damage such as sedimentation of rivers with adverse impacts on fisheries. Practical strategies are well known but often have financial implications for farmers. Examples of systems for paying one group of land users for ecosystem services affecting others exist in several parts of the world and serve as a model.