Estimating correlated observation error statistics using an ensemble transform Kalman filter

For certain observing types, such as those that are remotely sensed, the observation errors are correlated and these correlations are state- and time-dependent. In this work, we develop a method for diagnosing and incorporating spatially correlated and time-dependent observation error in an ensemble data assimilation system. The method combines an ensemble transform Kalman filter with a method that uses statistical averages of background and analysis innovations to provide an estimate of the observation error covariance matrix. To evaluate the performance of the method, we perform identical twin experiments using the Lorenz ’96 and Kuramoto-Sivashinsky models. Using our approach, a good approximation to the true observation error covariance can be recovered in cases where the initial estimate of the error covariance is incorrect. Spatial observation error covariances where the length scale of the true covariance changes slowly in time can also be captured. We find that using the estimated correlated observation error in the assimilation improves the analysis.

On the application of optimal wavelet filter banks for ECG signal classification

This paper discusses ECG signal classification after parametrizing the ECG waveforms in the wavelet domain. Signal decomposition using perfect reconstruction quadrature mirror filter banks can provide a very parsimonious representation of ECG signals. In the current work, the filter parameters are adjusted by a numerical optimization algorithm in order to minimize a cost function associated to the filter cut-off sharpness. The goal consists of achieving a better compromise between frequency selectivity and time resolution at each decomposition level than standard orthogonal filter banks such as those of the Daubechies and Coiflet families. Our aim is to optimally decompose the signals in the wavelet domain so that they can be subsequently used as inputs for training to a neural network classifier.

Active control of rod vibrations using magnetic fluids

The use of magnetic fluids in controlling rod vibrations is investigated. A prototype of ferrofluid vibration damper is designed and experimentally set up based on the principle of anti-resonance. The efficiency of this damping system is verified in experiments and well explained with classical equations of motion. The improvement of the present system towards active control of rod vibration is also discussed.

Energetic electron signatures in an active magnetotail plasma sheet

Particles with energies of tens to hundreds of keV provide a powerful diagnostic of the acceleration processes that characterise the Earth’s magnetosphere, in particular the highly dynamic nightside plasma sheet. Such energetic particles can be detected by the RAPID experiment, onboard the quartet of Cluster spacecraft. We present results from the study of a series of quasi-periodic, intense energetic electron signatures in the magnetotail revealed by RAPID Imaging Electron Spectrometer (IES) observations some 19 Earth radii (RE) downtail, associated with the passage of a highly geoeffective, high-speed solar wind stream. The RAPID-IES signatures – interpreted in combination with magnetic field and lower-energy electron measurements from the FGM and PEACE experiments on Cluster, respectively, and with reference to energetic electron observations from the CEPPAD-IES instrument on Polar – are understood in terms of repeated encounters of the Cluster spacecraft with the tail plasma sheet in response to the resultant tail reconfiguration in each of a series of substorms. We consider the Cluster response for two of these substorms (identified according to the conventional expansion phase onset indicators of particle injection at geosynchronous orbit and Pi2 pulsations at Earth) in terms of two possible tail configurations in which a Near-Earth Neutral Line forms either antisunward or sunward of the Cluster spacecraft. The latter scenario, in which the reconnection X-line is assumed to form sunward of Cluster and subsequently migrate downtail such that the spacecraft become engulfed in a tailward expanding plasma sheet, is shown to be more consistent with the observations.

Identifying the Open-Closed Field Line Boundary

Of all the various definitions of the polar cap boundary that have been used in the past, the most physically meaningful and significant is the boundary between open and closed field lines. Locating this boundary is very important as it defines which regions and phenomena are on open field lines and which are on closed. This usually has fundamental implications for the mechanisms invoked. Unfortunately, the open-closed boundary is usually very difficult to identify, particularly where it maps to an active reconnection site. This paper looks at the topological reconnection classes that can take place, both at the magnetopause and in the cross-tail current sheet and discusses the implications for identifying the open-closed boundary when reconnection is giving velocity filter dispersion of signatures. On the dayside, it is shown that the dayside boundary plasma sheet and low-latitude boundary layer precipitations are well explained as being on open field lines, energetic ions being present because of reflection of central plasma sheet ions off the two Alfvén waves launched by the reconnection site (the outer one of which is the magnetopause). This also explains otherwise anomalous features of the dayside convection pattern in the cusp region. On the nightside, similar considerations place the open-closed boundary somewhat poleward of the velocity-dispersed ion structures which are a signature of the plasma sheet boundary layer ion flows in the tail.

Transition from suppressed to active convection modulated by a weak-temperature gradient derived large-scale circulation

Numerical simulations are performed to assess the influence of the large-scale circulation on the transition from suppressed to active convection. As a model tool, we used a coupled-column model. It consists of two cloud-resolving models which are fully coupled via a large-scale circulation which is derived from the requirement that the instantaneous domain-mean potential temperature profiles of the two columns remain close to each other. This is known as the weak-temperature gradient approach. The simulations of the transition are initialized from coupled-column simulations over non-uniform surface forcing and the transition is forced within the dry column by changing the local and/or remote surface forcings to uniform surface forcing across the columns. As the strength of the circulation is reduced to zero, moisture is recharged into the dry column and a transition to active convection occurs once the column is sufficiently moistened to sustain deep convection. Direct effects of changing surface forcing occur over the first few days only. Afterward, it is the evolution of the large-scale circulation which systematically modulates the transition. Its contributions are approximately equally divided between the heating and moistening effects. A transition time is defined to summarize the evolution from suppressed to active convection. It is the time when the rain rate within the dry column is halfway to the mean value obtained at equilibrium over uniform surface forcing. The transition time is around twice as long for a transition that is forced remotely compared to a transition that is forced locally. Simulations in which both local and remote surface forcings are changed produce intermediate transition times.

Operational active fire mapping and burnt area identification applicable to Mexican Nature Protection Areas using MODIS and NOAA-AVHRR direct readout data

Since 1999, the National Commission for the Knowledge and Use of the Biodiversity (CONABIO) in Mexico has been developing and managing the “Operational program for the detection of hot-spots using remote sensing techniques”. This program uses images from the MODerate resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS) onboard the Terra and Aqua satellites and from the Advanced Very High Resolution Radiometer of the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA-AVHRR), which are operationally received through the Direct Readout station (DR) at CONABIO. This allows the near-real time monitoring of fire events in Mexico and Central America. In addition to the detection of active fires, the location of hot spots are classified with respect to vegetation types, accessibility, and risk to Nature Protection Areas (NPA). Besides the fast detection of fires, further analysis is necessary due to the considerable effects of forest fires on biodiversity and human life. This fire impact assessment is crucial to support the needs of resource managers and policy makers for adequate fire recovery and restoration actions. CONABIO attempts to meet these requirements, providing post-fire assessment products as part of the management system in particular for satellite-based burnt area mapping. This paper provides an overview of the main components of the operational system and will present an outlook to future activities and system improvements, especially the development of a burnt area product. A special focus will also be placed on the fire occurrence within NPAs of Mexico

First Results with the RISING active stopper

This paper outlines some of the physics opportunities available with the GSI RISING active stopper and presents preliminary results from an experiment aimed at performing beta-delayed gamma-ray spectroscopic studies in heavy-neutron-rich nuclei produced following the projectile fragmentation of a 1 GeV per nucleon 208Pb primary beam. The energy response of the silicon active stopping detector for both heavy secondary fragments and beta-particles is demonstrated and preliminary results on the decays of neutron-rich Tantalum (Ta) to Tungsten (W) isotopes are presented as examples of the potential of this technique to allow new structural studies in hitherto experimentally unreachable heavy, neutron-rich nuclei. The resulting spectral information inferred from excited states in the tungsten daughter nuclei are compared with results from axially symmetric Hartree–Fock calculations of the nuclear shape and suggest a change in ground state structure for the N = 116 isotone 190W compared to the lighter isotopes of this element.

New insights into the structure of exotic nuclei using the RISING active stopper

This conference paper outlines the operation and some of the preliminary physics results using the GSI RISING active stopper. Data are presented from an experiment using combined isomer and beta‐delayed gamma‐ray spectroscopy to study low‐lying spectral and decay properties of heavy‐neutron‐rich nuclei around A∼190 produced following the relativistic projectile fragmentation of 208Pb primary beam. The response of the RISING active stopper detector is demonstrated for both the implantation of heavy secondary fragments and in‐situ decay of beta‐particles. Beta‐delayed gamma‐ray spectroscopy following decays of the neutron‐rich nucleus 194Re is presented to demonstrate the experimental performance of the set‐up. The resulting information inferred from excited states in the W and Os daughter nuclei is compared with results from Skyrme Hartree‐Fock predictions of the evolution of nuclear shape.

The composite-tendency Robert-Asselin-Williams (RAW) filter in semi-implicit integrations

Timediscretization in weatherandclimate modelsintroduces truncation errors that limit the accuracy of the simulations. Recent work has yielded a method for reducing the amplitude errors in leap-frog integrations from first-order to fifth-order.This improvement is achieved by replacing the Robert–Asselin filter with the Robert–Asselin–Williams (RAW) filter and using a linear combination of unfiltered and filtered states to compute the tendency term. The purpose of the present article is to apply the composite-tendency RAW-filtered leapfrog scheme to semi-implicit integrations. A theoretical analysis shows that the stability and accuracy are unaffected by the introduction of the implicitly treated mode. The scheme is tested in semi-implicit numerical integrations in both a simple nonlinear stiff system and a medium-complexity atmospheric general circulation model and yields substantial improvements in both cases. We conclude that the composite-tendency RAW-filtered leap-frog scheme is suitable for use in semi-implicit integrations.

The equivalent-weights particle filter in a high-dimensional system

In general, particle filters need large numbers of model runs in order to avoid filter degeneracy in high-dimensional systems. The recently proposed, fully nonlinear equivalent-weights particle filter overcomes this requirement by replacing the standard model transition density with two different proposal transition densities. The first proposal density is used to relax all particles towards the high-probability regions of state space as defined by the observations. The crucial second proposal density is then used to ensure that the majority of particles have equivalent weights at observation time. Here, the performance of the scheme in a high, 65 500 dimensional, simplified ocean model is explored. The success of the equivalent-weights particle filter in matching the true model state is shown using the mean of just 32 particles in twin experiments. It is of particular significance that this remains true even as the number and spatial variability of the observations are changed. The results from rank histograms are less easy to interpret and can be influenced considerably by the parameter values used. This article also explores the sensitivity of the performance of the scheme to the chosen parameter values and the effect of using different model error parameters in the truth compared with the ensemble model runs.

The effect of the equivalent-weights particle filter on dynamical balance in a primitive equation model

The disadvantage of the majority of data assimilation schemes is the assumption that the conditional probability density function of the state of the system given the observations [posterior probability density function (PDF)] is distributed either locally or globally as a Gaussian. The advantage, however, is that through various different mechanisms they ensure initial conditions that are predominantly in linear balance and therefore spurious gravity wave generation is suppressed. The equivalent-weights particle filter is a data assimilation scheme that allows for a representation of a potentially multimodal posterior PDF. It does this via proposal densities that lead to extra terms being added to the model equations and means the advantage of the traditional data assimilation schemes, in generating predominantly balanced initial conditions, is no longer guaranteed. This paper looks in detail at the impact the equivalent-weights particle filter has on dynamical balance and gravity wave generation in a primitive equation model. The primary conclusions are that (i) provided the model error covariance matrix imposes geostrophic balance, then each additional term required by the equivalent-weights particle filter is also geostrophically balanced; (ii) the relaxation term required to ensure the particles are in the locality of the observations has little effect on gravity waves and actually induces a reduction in gravity wave energy if sufficiently large; and (iii) the equivalent-weights term, which leads to the particles having equivalent significance in the posterior PDF, produces a change in gravity wave energy comparable to the stochastic model error. Thus, the scheme does not produce significant spurious gravity wave energy and so has potential for application in real high-dimensional geophysical applications.

Selecting object pairs for action: is the active object always first?

Perception is linked to action via two routes: a direct route based on affordance information in the environment and an indirect route based on semantic knowledge about objects. The present study explored the factors modulating the recruitment of the two routes, in particular which factors affecting the selection of paired objects. In Experiment 1, we presented real objects among semantically related or unrelated distracters. Participants had to select two objects that can interact. The presence of distracters affected selection times, but not the semantic relations of the objects with the distracters. Furthermore, participants first selected the active object (e.g. teaspoon) with their right hand, followed by the passive object (e.g. mug), often with their left hand. In Experiment 2, we presented pictures of the same objects with no hand grip, congruent or incongruent hand grip. Participants had to decide whether the two objects can interact. Action decisions were faster when the presentation of the active object preceded the presentation of the passive object, and when the grip was congruent. Interestingly, participants were slower when the objects were semantically but not functionally related; this effect increased with congruently gripped objects. Our data showed that action decisions in the presence of strong affordance cues (real objects, pictures of congruently gripped objects) relied on sensory-motor representation, supporting the direct route from perception-to-action that bypasses semantic knowledge. However, in the case of weak affordance cues (pictures), semantic information interfered with action decisions, indicating that semantic knowledge impacts action decisions. The data support the dual-route account from perception-to-action.

Sample size considerations in active-control non-inferiority trials with binary data based on the odds ratio

This paper presents an approximate closed form sample size formula for determining non-inferiority in active-control trials with binary data. We use the odds-ratio as the measure of the relative treatment effect, derive the sample size formula based on the score test and compare it with a second, well-known formula based on the Wald test. Both closed form formulae are compared with simulations based on the likelihood ratio test. Within the range of parameter values investigated, the score test closed form formula is reasonably accurate when non-inferiority margins are based on odds-ratios of about 0.5 or above and when the magnitude of the odds ratio under the alternative hypothesis lies between about 1 and 2.5. The accuracy generally decreases as the odds ratio under the alternative hypothesis moves upwards from 1. As the non-inferiority margin odds ratio decreases from 0.5, the score test closed form formula increasingly overestimates the sample size irrespective of the magnitude of the odds ratio under the alternative hypothesis. The Wald test closed form formula is also reasonably accurate in the cases where the score test closed form formula works well. Outside these scenarios, the Wald test closed form formula can either underestimate or overestimate the sample size, depending on the magnitude of the non-inferiority margin odds ratio and the odds ratio under the alternative hypothesis. Although neither approximation is accurate for all cases, both approaches lead to satisfactory sample size calculation for non-inferiority trials with binary data where the odds ratio is the parameter of interest.

Effect of pair interactions on transition probabilities between inactive and active states: achieving collective behaviour via pair interactions in social insects

To understand the evolution of well-organized social behaviour, we must first understand the mechanism by which collective behaviour establishes. In this study, the mechanisms of collective behaviour in a colony of social insects were studied in terms of the transition probability between active and inactive states, which is linked to mutual interactions. The active and inactive states of the social insects were statistically extracted from the velocity profiles. From the duration distributions of the two states, we found that 1) the durations of active and inactive states follow an exponential law, and 2) pair interactions increase the transition probability from inactive to active states. The regulation of the transition probability by paired interactions suggests that such interactions control the populations of active and inactive workers in the colony.