Time series analysis for minority game simulations of financial markets

The minority game (MG) model introduced recently provides promising insights into the understanding of the evolution of prices, indices and rates in the financial markets. In this paper we perform a time series analysis of the model employing tools from statistics, dynamical systems theory and stochastic processes. Using benchmark systems and a financial index for comparison, several conclusions are obtained about the generating mechanism for this kind of evolution. The motion is deterministic, driven by occasional random external perturbation. When the interval between two successive perturbations is sufficiently large, one can find low dimensional chaos in this regime. However, the full motion of the MG model is found to be similar to that of the first differences of the SP500 index: stochastic, nonlinear and (unit root) stationary. (C) 2002 Elsevier B.V. B.V. All rights reserved.

Radioactivity distribution in some Permian sediments from the Irati and Corumbatal formations of the Parana basin, southeastern Brazil

in the city of Limeira, southeastern Brazil, an important exposure of Permian sediments of the Parana basin was revealed by an open pit mine that exploits limestone for production of soil correction compounds and raw materials for the ceramic industry. The radioactivity of these sediments was investigated in some detail and the results provided a general view of the vertical distributions of uranium, thorium and potassium concentrations and of the element ratios U/K, U/Th and Th/K. In general, the concentrations of the main natural radioactive elements are low, with uranium being enriched in some limestone and shale levels. In addition the results showed that the U-238 series is in radioactive disequilibrium in many of the analyzed samples. Although the origin of the observed disequilibrium has not been investigated, the results suggest that it is due to weathering processes and water interaction with the rock matrix. (C) 2003 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Implications of groundwater weathered profile interactions to the mobilization of radionuclides

This study reports the nature and extent of open-system interaction between groundwater and a weathered profile developed in the high grade thorium and REE ore body in Morro do Ferro, Pocos de Caldas plateau. The radioelement mobility in the shallow oxidizing environment was considered by using chemical data in conjunction with U-234/U-238, Ra-226/Th-230, Th-230/U-234, Th-228/Th-232, Ra-228/Th-232 and Th-230/Ra-228 activity ratios (AR's) for borehole spoil and groundwater samples.Recharging groundwater from the studied borehole has low salinity values, with total dissolved solids content of 14.7 mg/l and total ionic strength of 0.00018. The ratio of the weight of dissolved radioelement per unit volume of solution to the weight of radioelement in solid phase per unit weight of solid phase showed that the radioelement solubility in the studied waters varied according to the following order: radium> uranium >thorium.U-234/U-238 AR's less than 1 were measured in solid phase and can justify the enhancement of U-234 in solution. Ra-226/Th-230 AR's greater than 1 and Th-230/U-234 AR'S less than 1 were evaluated between 20 and 27 m in depth, where a 2.1-m thick magnetite dike was intersected. These ratios could be justified by deposition of U and Ra associated with Fe-Mn oxides and kaolinite, where mineral saturation indices evaluated from the available data confirm this possibility. Covariations among disequilibria involving Th-228/(228) Ra and Ra-228/Th-232 AR's showed the preferential removal of Ra-228 relative to Tn isotopes, Th-228 and Th-232. The recent deposition of radium within the timescale of at least the last 35 years also is suggested. (C) 1998 Elsevier B.V. Ltd. All rights reserved.

The natural radioactivity in Guarani aquifer groundwater, Brazil

Fundação de Amparo à Pesquisa do Estado de São Paulo (FAPESP)

Synthesis and characterization of a novel series of meso (nitrophenyl) and meso (carboxyphenyl) substituted porphyrins

Fundação de Amparo à Pesquisa do Estado de São Paulo (FAPESP)

Thermal decomposition and stability in a series of heterobimetallic carbonyl compounds of the type [Fe(CO)4(HgX)2] (X=Cl, Br, I)

Fundação de Amparo à Pesquisa do Estado de São Paulo (FAPESP)

Comparison between the complete Bayesian method and empirical Bayesian method for ARCH models using Brazilian financial time series

In this work we compared the estimates of the parameters of ARCH models using a complete Bayesian method and an empirical Bayesian method in which we adopted a non-informative prior distribution and informative prior distribution, respectively. We also considered a reparameterization of those models in order to map the space of the parameters into real space. This procedure permits choosing prior normal distributions for the transformed parameters. The posterior summaries were obtained using Monte Carlo Markov chain methods (MCMC). The methodology was evaluated by considering the Telebras series from the Brazilian financial market. The results show that the two methods are able to adjust ARCH models with different numbers of parameters. The empirical Bayesian method provided a more parsimonious model to the data and better adjustment than the complete Bayesian method.

Doses from Rn-222, Ra-226, and Ra-228 in groundwater from Guarani aquifer, South America

Groundwater samples were analysed for Rn-222, Ra-226, and Ra-228 in Guarani aquifer spreading around I million kin 2 within four countries in South America, and it was found that their activity concentrations are lognormally distributed. Population-weighted average activity concentration for these radionuclides allowed to estimate a value: either slightly higher (0.13 mSv/year) than 0.1 mSv for the total effective dose or two times higher (0.21 mSv/year) than this limit, depending on the choice of the dose conversion factor. Such calculation adds useful information for the appropriate management of this transboundary aquifer that is socially and economically very important to about 15 million inhabitants living in Brazil, Argentina, Uruguay and Paraguay. (C) 2004 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Correlation of reactivity with structural factors in a series of Fe(II) substituted cobalt ferrites

A series of powdered cobalt ferrites, CoxFe3-xO4 with 0.66 <= x< 1.00 containing different amounts of Fe-II, were synthesized by a mild procedure, and their Fe and Co site occupancies and structural characteristics were explored using X-ray anomalous scattering and the Rietveld refinement method. The dissolution kinetics, measured in 0.1 M oxalic acid aqueous solution at 70 degrees C, indicate in all cases the operation of a contracting volume rate law. The specific rates increased with the Fell content following approximately a second-order polynomial expression. This result suggests that the transfer of Fe-III controls the dissolution rate, and that the leaching of a first layer of ions Co-II and Fe-II leaves exposed a surface enriched in slower dissolving octahedral Fe-III ions. Within this model, inner vicinal lattice Fe-II accelerates the rate of Fe-III transfer via internal electron hopping. A chain mechanism, involving successive electron transfers, fits the data very well. (C) 2006 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Potentialities and practical limitations of absolute neutron dosimetry using thin films of uranium and thorium applied to the fission track dating

Neutron dosimetry using natural uranium and thorium thin films makes possible that mineral dating by the fission-track method can be accomplished, even when poor thermalized neutron facilities are employed. In this case, the contributions of the fissions of (235)U, (238)U and (232)Th induced by thermal, epithermal and fast neutrons to the population of tracks produced during irradiation are quantified through the combined use of natural uranium and thorium films.If the Th/U ratio of the sample is known, only one irradiation (where the sample and the films of uranium and thorium are present) is necessary to perform the dating. However, if that ratio is unknown, it can be determined through another irradiation where the mineral to be dated and both films are placed inside a cadmium box.Problems related with film manufacturing and calibration are discussed. Special attention is given to the utilization of thin films having very low uranium content. The problems faced suggest that it may be better to substitute these films by uranium doped standard glasses calibrated with thicker uranium films (thickness greater than 1.5 x 10(13) mu m).

A method for evaluating Ra-228 in environmental matrices and its use at Pocos de Caldas plateau, Brazil

This work describes a methodology developed for performing the extraction, detection and quantification of Ra-228 in waters, suspended solids and sediments. The technique proved to be useful for analyzing samples from the hydrological environment of Morro do Ferro, Pocos de Caldas plateau, Brazil. The 228Ra activity in underground waters of 5 boreholes drilled in the area varied from 0.02 up to 14.5 Bq/l, whereas for the surficial waters the variation was from 0.04 to 0.51 Bq/l; for the suspended solids, the values ranged from 1.5 up to 419 Bq/g, whereas it was possible to find a value of 2.04 Bq/g for the sediments. These results show the applicability of the method for characterizing different matrices of environmental interest. (C) 2002 Elsevier B.V. Ltd. All rights reserved.

Solid-state compounds of 4-methoxybenzylidenepyruvate and cinnamylidenepyruvates with thorium (IV) - Preparation and thermal studies

By close control of experimental variables affecting precipitation, solid-state compounds of the type Th(OH)(m)L4-m.nH(2)O, where L stands for 4-methoxy-benzylidenepyruvate, cinnamylidenepyruvate or 4-dimethylaminocinnamylidene-pyruvate; m=0 to 3 and n=0.5-3 were isolated. Chemical analysis, TG, DTG, DSC and X-ray powder diffractometry have been employed to characterize and to study the thermal behavior of these compounds in dynamic air atmosphere. In all cases, hydration water is slowly lost between 30 and 160degreesC; a continuous, slow rate, mass loss is observed thereafter and beyond 280-400degreesC the rate of decomposition/oxidation increased rapidly, to give ThO2 as the final product, beginning at 412-510degreesC. The results associated with the hydroxo-compounds indicate that the loss of constitution water (OH ions) and the decomposition / oxidation of the organic moieties occur as simultaneous process.

Durango apatite fission-track dating using length-based age corrections and neutron fluence measurements by natural thorium thin films and natural U-doped glasses calibrated through natural uranium thin films

In this work, we present an approach for neutron fluence measurements based on natural thorium thin films and natural uranium-doped glasses calibrated through natural uranium thin films to be used for dating with the Fission-Track Method (FTM). This neutron dosimetry approach allows the employment of FTM even when dating is carried out using low neutron themalization facilities. Besides, it makes possible the determination of the Th/U ratio of the mineral to be dated. Durango apatite which is often employed in FTM as an age standard was analyzed. This apatite presented a fairly high Th/U ratio, 29.9 +/- 1.7. Th fissions were 18%, 12% and 10% of the total for irradiations where thermal to fast neutron flux ratios were 2.4, 4.4 and 5,2, respectively. These results show that Th fission must be considered for this apatite, when not well-thermalized irradiation facilities are used. The ratio between spontaneous and induced track length, L(S)/L(1), close to 0.89, indicates a certain amount of rejuvenation of the age of Durango apatite. Therefore, its apparent age should be corrected, the application of a technique based on track-length measurements produced a corrected age of 29.7 +/- 1.1 Ma, consistent with the independent reference age of this apatite (31.4 +/- 0.5 Ma). This result represents a support for viability of the neutron dosimetry approach studied in this work for FTM.(C) 2002 Elsevier B.V. B.V. All rights reserved.