936 resultados para ARI endemicity forecasting
Resumo:
The Aedes aegypti vector for dengue virus (DENV) has been reported in urban and periurban areas. The information about DENV circulation in mosquitoes in Colombian rural areas is limited, so we aimed to evaluate the presence of DENV in Ae. aegypti females caught in rural locations of two Colombian municipalities, Anapoima and La Mesa. Mosquitoes from 497 rural households in 44 different rural settlements were collected. Pools of about 20 Ae. aegypti females were processed for DENV serotype detection. DENV in mosquitoes was detected in 74% of the analysed settlements with a pool positivity rate of 62%. The estimated individual mosquito infection rate was 4.12% and the minimum infection rate was 33.3/1,000 mosquitoes. All four serotypes were detected; the most frequent being DENV-2 (50%) and DENV-1 (35%). Two-three serotypes were detected simultaneously in separate pools. This is the first report on the co-occurrence of natural DENV infection of mosquitoes in Colombian rural areas. The findings are important for understanding dengue transmission and planning control strategies. A potential latent virus reservoir in rural areas could spill over to urban areas during population movements. Detecting DENV in wild-caught adult mosquitoes should be included in the development of dengue epidemic forecasting models.
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Rare species have restricted geographic ranges, habitat specialization, and/or small population sizes. Datasets on rare species distribution usually have few observations, limited spatial accuracy and lack of valid absences; conversely they provide comprehensive views of species distributions allowing to realistically capture most of their realized environmental niche. Rare species are the most in need of predictive distribution modelling but also the most difficult to model. We refer to this contrast as the "rare species modelling paradox" and propose as a solution developing modelling approaches that deal with a sufficiently large set of predictors, ensuring that statistical models aren't overfitted. Our novel approach fulfils this condition by fitting a large number of bivariate models and averaging them with a weighted ensemble approach. We further propose that this ensemble forecasting is conducted within a hierarchic multi-scale framework. We present two ensemble models for a test species, one at regional and one at local scale, each based on the combination of 630 models. In both cases, we obtained excellent spatial projections, unusual when modelling rare species. Model results highlight, from a statistically sound approach, the effects of multiple drivers in a same modelling framework and at two distinct scales. From this added information, regional models can support accurate forecasts of range dynamics under climate change scenarios, whereas local models allow the assessment of isolated or synergistic impacts of changes in multiple predictors. This novel framework provides a baseline for adaptive conservation, management and monitoring of rare species at distinct spatial and temporal scales.
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A growing body of evidence indicates that a subpopulation of tumor cells, the so-called cancer stem cells (CSCs), drive tumor growth and metastasis and preclude therapy efficiency. CSCs have been isolated in virtually all type of tumors. These findings may have important consequences for clinical prognostic. Current cancer research aims to unravel the CSCs' unique biological mechanisms. The development of new CSCs-targeted treatments shed therefore new hopes in improving cancer therapy.
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A l'Est du fleuve Zanskar (Ladakh), la zone de suture de l'Indus sépare les nappes de la bordure nord-indienne du Gondwana (Haut-Himalaya, nappes du Zanskar, cristallin de Tso Morari) des éléments péri·gondwaniens du Trans-himalaya. Des recherches géologiques entreprises entre l'Indus el la Tsarap ont montré que: - la molasse autochlone du Ladakh est surmontée par un édifice de flysch et molasses tertiaires, rétrocharrié vers le NordEst et coiffé par les conglomérats post· éocène moyen du Stok Kangri et une formation eontinentale de molasse rouge; - - la zone de suture comprend deux unités. principales : a) au Nord et au Nord-Ouest, l'unité volcano-sédimentaire de Dras-Nindam avec des conglomérats et flysch crétacés, des brèches massives à radiolarHes et roches vertes; cette unité est accompagnée d'un mélange coloré à roches ultra-basiques, blocs exoti(Iues divers et une méga lentille de brèche carbonatée polygénique à grands Foraminifères (Nummulites ?) ; b) au Sud, l'unité de la Markha, un flysch à lentilles de calcaires plus ou moins marmoréens datée de la base du Jurassique moyen et que nons corrélons avec le Oysch de Lamayuru ; - l'unité complexe de Nimaling représente la terminaison occidentale du crist allin de Rupshn (Tso MOI'ari) ; il comprend un socle gneissique, des roches vert.es et une couverture de schistes quartzitiques, quartzites el dolomies. Cet ensemble est intrudé pal' un granite porphyrique et il est surmonté, en contact tectonique, par une épaisse série métamorphique de calcschistes, shales et grès de faciès schistes lustrés, d'âge inconnu; dans ce tte série, on note au moins trois phases de fortes déformaljons superposées (linéations replissées) ; le long de la vallée de la Markha, le style st.ructural évoque, avec des plis isoclinaux de 2" phase à axes verticaux, une « zone de racine" et pourrait également témoigner de mouvements horizontaux importants; - l'édifice des napp es du Zanskar a été subdivisé en trois unités; il surmonte vers le Nord-Est les schistes lustrés du groupe de Langtang et vient buter vers le Sud-Ouest, le long d'un aceident chevauchant, contre la nappe de Zangla (Haut Himalaya). Les séries sédimentaires (Trias - Crétacé supérieur) sont d'affinité téthysienne. De nouvelles datations sont apportées et nous mettons en évidence, directement à l'Est du fleuve Zanskar, la présence de Crétacé sous faciès calcaires multicolores à microfaune planctique ; transgressif sur les grès de Giumal, ce faciès calcaire déhut.e déjà dans l'Alhien supérieur, c'est-à-dire nellement plus tôt que dans les régions plus orientales de l 'Himalaya; - les nappes du Haut Himalaya comprennent du Nord-Est vers le Sud-Ouest la nappe de Zangla qui chevauche par l'intermédiaire d'une semelle de « Panjal Traps » des témoins écaillés de Paléozoïque inférieur, puis la nappe de cristallin. La nappe de Zangla correspond à l'unité qui, à l 'Ouest du Zanskar supporte la klippe ophiolitique de Spongtang.
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Une hypgothèse permettant d'expliquer l'effet néfaste des particules sur la santé serait que les particules agiraient par l'intermédiaire d'espèces oxydantes qui attaqueraient l'ADN ou les lipides constituant les membranes cellulaires. Les antioxydants présents dans les cellules/organes réduiraient ces effets. Une étude effectuée dans différents atteliers mécaniques a permis de constater un effet biologique chez les mécaniciens malgré le fait qu'ils étaient exposés à des concentrations inférieures aux VME. La concentration urinaire d'un composé mesurant les atteintes oxydantes sur l'ADN a augmenté durant deux journées consécutives de travail. Les niveaux d'antioxydants ont aussi augmenté, indiquant une activation des processus de défense individuels. Les résultats confirment aussi l'importance du fer, du cuivre et duNOx ainsi que des propriétés chimiques de surface des particules dans l'induction de réactions d'oxydation sur des constituants biologiques.
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The aim of this study was to evaluate adverse effects of multiwalled carbon nanotubes (MWCNT), produced for industrial purposes, on the human epithelial cell line A549. MWCNT were dispersed in dipalmitoyl lecithin (DPL), a component of pulmonary surfactant, and the effects of dispersion in DPL were compared to those in two other media: ethanol (EtOH) and phosphate-buffered saline (PBS). Effects of MWCNT were also compared to those of two asbestos fibers (chrysotile and crocidolite) and carbon black (CB) nanoparticles, not only in A549 cells but also in mesothelial cells (MeT5A human cell line), used as an asbestos-sensitive cell type. MWCNT formed agglomerates on top of both cell lines (surface area 15-35 μm2) that were significantly larger and more numerous in PBS than in EtOH and DPL. Whatever the dispersion media, incubation with 100 μg/ml MWCNT induced a similar decrease in metabolic activity without changing cell membrane permeability or apoptosis. Neither MWCNT cellular internalization nor oxidative stress was observed. In contrast, asbestos fibers penetrated into the cells, decreased metabolic activity but not cell membrane permeability, and increased apoptosis, without decreasing cell number. CB was internalized without any adverse effects. In conclusion, this study demonstrates that MWCNT produced for industrial purposes exert adverse effects without being internalized by human epithelial and mesothelial pulmonary cell lines. [Authors]
Resumo:
Epidemiological studies have demonstrated that exposure to fine particles is associated to adverse health effects, including cancer, respiratory and cardiovascular diseases. However, mechanisms by which particles induce health effects remain unclear. According to one of the most investigated hypotheses, particles cause adverse effects through the production of reactive oxygen species (ROS), which are very hazardous compounds able to attack directly biological structures, including the DNA strand or the lipid bilayer of the cells. If the defense mechanisms, constituted of antioxidants, are not able to counter ROS, then these compounds will cause in the body a range of oxidation reactions called "oxidative stress". The aim of the present research project was to better understand mechanisms by which exposure to fine particles induces oxidative stress. The first point of this project was to check whether exposure to high levels of fine particles is directly linked to oxidative stress, and whether this oxidative stress is accompanied by the activation of the defense mechanisms (antioxidants). The second point was to study the role played by the particle surface characteristics in the oxidative stress process. For that purpose, a study was conducted in bus depots with the participation of 40 mechanics. First, occupational exposure to particles (PM4) and to other pollutants (NOx, O3) was measured over a two-day period. Then, urine samples of mechanics were collected in order to measure levels of 8-hydroxy-2'-deoxyguanosine (8OHdG) and antioxidants. 8OHdG is a molecule formed by the oxidation of DNA and allowing to assess the oxidative stress status of the mechanics. Finally, particles were collected on filters, and functional groups located on the particle surface were analyzed in the laboratory using a Knudsen flow reactor. This technique allows not only to quantify functional groups on the particle surface, but also to measure the reaction kinetics. Results obtained during the field campaign in bus depots showed that mechanics were exposed to rather low levels of PM4 (20-85 μg/m3) and of pollutants (NOx: 100-1000 ppb; O3: <15 ppb). However, despite this low exposure, urinary levels of the oxidative stress biomarker (8OHdG) increased significantly for non-smoking workers over a two-day period of shift. This oxidative stress was accompanied by an increase of antioxidants, indicating the activation of defense mechanisms. On the other hand, the analysis of functional groups on the particle surface showed important differences, depending on the workplace, the date and the activities of workers. The particle surface contained simultaneously antagonistic functional groups which did not undergo internal reactions (such as acids and bases), and was usually characterized by a high density of carbonyl functions and a low density of acidic sites. Reaction kinetics measured using the Knudsen flow reactor pointed out fast reactions of oxidizable groups and slow reactions of acidic sites. Several exposure parameters were significantly correlated with the increase of the oxidative stress status: the presence of acidic sites, carbonyl functions and oxidizable groups on the particle surface; reaction kinetics of functional groups on the particle surface; particulate iron and copper concentrations; and NOx concentration.
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An adaptation technique based on the synoptic atmospheric circulation to forecast local precipitation, namely the analogue method, has been implemented for the western Swiss Alps. During the calibration procedure, relevance maps were established for the geopotential height data. These maps highlight the locations were the synoptic circulation was found of interest for the precipitation forecasting at two rain gauge stations (Binn and Les Marécottes) that are located both in the alpine Rhône catchment, at a distance of about 100 km from each other. These two stations are sensitive to different atmospheric circulations. We have observed that the most relevant data for the analogue method can be found where specific atmospheric circulation patterns appear concomitantly with heavy precipitation events. Those skilled regions are coherent with the atmospheric flows illustrated, for example, by means of the back trajectories of air masses. Indeed, the circulation recurrently diverges from the climatology during days with strong precipitation on the southern part of the alpine Rhône catchment. We have found that for over 152 days with precipitation amount above 50 mm at the Binn station, only 3 did not show a trajectory of a southerly flow, meaning that such a circulation was present for 98% of the events. Time evolution of the relevance maps confirms that the atmospheric circulation variables have significantly better forecasting skills close to the precipitation period, and that it seems pointless for the analogue method to consider circulation information days before a precipitation event as a primary predictor. Even though the occurrence of some critical circulation patterns leading to heavy precipitation events can be detected by precursors at remote locations and 1 week ahead (Grazzini, 2007; Martius et al., 2008), time extrapolation by the analogue method seems to be rather poor. This would suggest, in accordance with previous studies (Obled et al., 2002; Bontron and Obled, 2005), that time extrapolation should be done by the Global Circulation Model, which can process atmospheric variables that can be used by the adaptation method.
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Development of dialysis has saved the lives of many patients. However, haemodialysis and peritoneal dialysis are very demanding in resources such as water and electricity, and generate a large amount of waste. In this article, we will review the environmental aspects of dialysis. Different solutions will be discussed, such as recycling of water discharged during reverse osmosis, the integration of solar energy, recycling of waste plastics, and the use of other techniques such as sorbent dialysis. In a world where natural resources are precious and where global warming is a major problem, it is important that not only dialysis, but all branches of medicine become more attentive to ecology.
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Through the history of Electrical Engineering education, vectorial and phasorial diagrams have been used as a fundamental learning tool. At present, computational power has replaced them by long data lists, the result of solving equation systems by means of numerical methods. In this sense, diagrams have been shifted to an academic background and although theoretically explained, they are not used in a practical way within specific examples. This fact may be against the understanding of the complex behavior of the electrical power systems by students. This article proposes a modification of the classical Perrine-Baum diagram construction to allowing both a more practical representation and a better understanding of the behavior of a high-voltage electric line under different levels of load. This modification allows, at the same time, the forecast of the obsolescence of this behavior and line’s loading capacity. Complementary, we evaluate the impact of this tool in the learning process showing comparative undergraduate results during three academic years
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Training new doctors in general internal medicine represents a challenge. This requires to define future needs, which result from interest that are not necessarily convergent between patients, doctors, insurers and politicians. Problems related to medical demography in Switzerland, with the ageing of the population, the increase in health care costs and the place of Switzerland within the European Community require the implementation of specific objectives to train new physicians in general internal medicine. The success of these opportunities depends on social factors, political choices and choices from physician's association. In this article we will approach these challenges by formulating some proposals--nonexhaustive--in order to guarantee sufficient renewal in general internal medicine.
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BACKGROUND: To update the pattern of cancer mortality in Europe. Materials and methods: We analysed cancer mortality in 34 European countries during 2000-2004, with an overview of trends in 1975-2004 using data from the World Health Organization. RESULTS: From 1990-1994 to 2000-2004, overall cancer mortality in the European Union declined from 185.2 to 168.0/100 000 (world standard, -9%) in men and from 104.8 to 96.9 (-8%) in women, with larger falls in middle age. Total cancer mortality trends were favourable, though to a variable degree, in all major European countries, including Russia, but not in Romania. The major determinants of these favourable trends were the decline of lung (-16%) and other tobacco-related cancers in men, together with the persistent falls in gastric cancer, and the recent appreciable falls in colorectal cancer. In women, relevant contributions came from the persistent decline in cervical cancer and the recent falls in breast cancer mortality, particularly in northern and western Europe. Favourable trends were also observed for testicular cancer, Hodgkin lymphomas, leukaemias, and other neoplasms amenable to treatment, though the reductions were still appreciably smaller in eastern Europe. CONCLUSION: This updated analysis of cancer mortality in Europe showed a persistent favourable trend over the last years.