A variational approach to retrieve rain rate by combining information from rain gauges, radars, and microwave links

Accurate and reliable rain rate estimates are important for various hydrometeorological applications. Consequently, rain sensors of different types have been deployed in many regions. In this work, measurements from different instruments, namely, rain gauge, weather radar, and microwave link, are combined for the first time to estimate with greater accuracy the spatial distribution and intensity of rainfall. The objective is to retrieve the rain rate that is consistent with all these measurements while incorporating the uncertainty associated with the different sources of information. Assuming the problem is not strongly nonlinear, a variational approach is implemented and the Gauss–Newton method is used to minimize the cost function containing proper error estimates from all sensors. Furthermore, the method can be flexibly adapted to additional data sources. The proposed approach is tested using data from 14 rain gauges and 14 operational microwave links located in the Zürich area (Switzerland) to correct the prior rain rate provided by the operational radar rain product from the Swiss meteorological service (MeteoSwiss). A cross-validation approach demonstrates the improvement of rain rate estimates when assimilating rain gauge and microwave link information.

Anthelmintic activity of trans-cinnamaldehyde and A- and B-type proanthocyanidins derived from cinnamon (Cinnamomum verum)

Cinnamon (Cinnamomum verum) has been shown to have anti-inflammatory and antimicrobial properties, but effects on parasitic worms of the intestine have not been investigated. Here, extracts of cinnamon bark were shown to have potent in vitro anthelmintic properties against the swine nematode Ascaris suum. Analysis of the extract revealed high concentrations of proanthocyanidins (PAC) and trans-cinnamaldehyde (CA). The PAC were subjected to thiolysis and HPLC-MS analysis which demonstrated that they were exclusively procyanidins, had a mean degree of polymerization of 5.2 and 21% of their inter-flavan-3-ol links were A-type linkages. Purification of the PAC revealed that whilst they had activity against A. suum, most of the potency of the extract derived from CA. Trichuris suis and Oesophagostomum dentatum larvae were similarly susceptible to CA. To test whether CA could reduce A. suum infection in pigs in vivo, CA was administered daily in the diet or as a targeted, encapsulated dose. However, infection was not significantly reduced. It is proposed that the rapid absorption or metabolism of CA in vivo may prevent it from being present in sufficient concentrations in situ to exert efficacy. Therefore, further work should focus on whether formulation of CA can enhance its activity against internal parasites.

When enough is not enough: information overload and metacognitive decisions to stop studying information

People are often exposed to more information than they can actually remember. Despite this frequent form of information overload, little is known about how much information people choose to remember. Using a novel “stop” paradigm, the current research examined whether and how people choose to stop receiving new—possibly overwhelming—information with the intent to maximize memory performance. Participants were presented with a long list of items and were rewarded for the number of correctly remembered words in a following free recall test. Critically, participants in a stop condition were provided with the option to stop the presentation of the remaining words at any time during the list, whereas participants in a control condition were presented with all items. Across five experiments, we found that participants tended to stop the presentation of the items to maximize the number of recalled items, but this decision ironically led to decreased memory performance relative to the control group. This pattern was consistent even after controlling for possible confounding factors (e.g., task demands). The results indicated a general, false belief that we can remember a larger number of items if we restrict the quantity of learning materials. These findings suggest people have an incomplete understanding of how we remember excessive amounts of information.

Procedural justice, not absorptive capacity, matters in multinational enterprise ICT transfers

This paper empirically tests the effectiveness of information and communications technology (ICT) knowledge transfer and adoption in the multinational enterprise (MNE) as an issue of critical importance to contemporary MNE functioning. In contrast to mainstream thinking on absorptive capacity, but in line with prevailing international business theory, our research supports the proposition that perceptions of procedural justice, rather than absorptive capacity, determine effectiveness, especially in cases of high tacit knowledge transfers. Data was collected from senior ICT representatives in 86 Canadian subsidiaries of foreign owned MNEs. Each of these subsidiaries recently experienced a significant ICT transfer imposed by the parent organization. Support was found for the main propositions: Procedural justice significantly predicted successful ICT transfer and adoption, while absorptive capacity was not significant. These findings are consistent even when knowledge tacitness was high. The perceived success of the ICT transfer as well as its adoption varied widely across these firms. The potential reasons for this divergence in effectiveness are manifold, but our findings suggest that in situations of substantial knowledge tacitness, a higher level of procedural justice, rather than a higher level of absorptive capacity, is critical to effective transfer and adoption.

The N-terminal SH2 domain of Syk is required for (hem)ITAM, but not integrin, signaling in mouse platelets

We have used a novel knockin mouse to investigate the effect of disruption of phosphotyrosine binding of the N-terminal SH2 domain of Syk on platelet activation by GPVI, CLEC-2, and integrin αIIbβ3. The Syk(R41Afl/fl) mouse was crossed to a PF4-Cre(+) mouse to induce expression of the Syk mutant in the megakaryocyte/platelet lineage. Syk(R41Afl/fl;PF4-Cre) mice are born at approximately 50% of the expected frequency and have a similar phenotype to Syk(fl/fl;PF4-Cre) mice, including blood-lymphatic mixing and chyloascites. Anastomosis of the venous and lymphatic vasculatures can be seen in the mesenteric circulation accounting for rapid and continuous mixing of the 2 vasculatures. Platelet activation by CLEC-2 and GPVI is abolished in Syk(R41Afl/fl;PF4-Cre) platelets. Syk phosphorylation on Tyr519/20 is blocked in CLEC-2-stimulated platelets, suggesting a model in which binding of Syk via its N-terminal SH2 domain regulates autophosphorylation. In contrast, outside-in signaling by integrin αIIbβ3 is not altered, but it is inhibited in the presence of inhibitors of Src and Syk tyrosine kinases. These results demonstrate that αIIbβ3 regulates Syk through an ITAM-independent pathway in mice and provide novel insight into the course of events underlying Syk activation and hemITAM phosphorylation by CLEC-2.

CLEC-2 is not required for platelet aggregation at arteriolar shear

The C-type lectin receptor CLEC-2 is expressed primarily on the surface of platelets, where it is present as a dimer, and is found at low level on a subpopulation of other hematopoietic cells, including mouse neutrophils [1–4] Clustering of CLEC-2 by the snake venom toxin rhodocytin, specific antibodies or its endogenous ligand, podoplanin, elicits powerful activation of platelets through a pathway that is similar to that used by the collagen receptor glycoprotein VI (GPVI) [4–6]. The cytosolic tail of CLEC-2 contains a conserved YxxL sequence preceded by three upstream acidic amino acid residues, which together form a novel motif known as a hemITAM. Ligand engagement induces tyrosine phosphorylation of the hemITAM sequence providing docking sites for the tandem-SH2 domains of the tyrosine kinase Syk across a CLEC-2 receptor dimer [3]. Tyrosine phosphorylation of Syk by Src family kinases and through autophosphorylation leads to stimulation of a downstream signaling cascade that culminates in activation of phospholipase C γ2 (PLCγ2) [4,6]. Recently, CLEC-2 has been proposed to play a major role in supporting activation of platelets at arteriolar rates of flow [1]. Injection of a CLEC-2 antibody into mice causes a sustained depletion of the C-type lectin receptor from the platelet surface [1]. The CLEC-2-depleted platelets were unresponsive to rhodocytin but underwent normal aggregation and secretion responses after stimulation of other platelet receptors, including GPVI [1]. In contrast, there was a marked decrease in aggregate formation relative to controls when CLEC-2-depleted blood was flowed at arteriolar rates of shear over collagen (1000 s−1 and 1700 s−1) [1]. Furthermore, antibody treatment significantly increased tail bleeding times and mice were unable to occlude their vessels after ferric chloride injury [1]. These data provide evidence for a critical role for CLEC-2 in supporting platelet aggregation at arteriolar rates of flow. The underlying mechanism is unclear as platelets do not express podoplanin, the only known endogenous ligand of CLEC-2. In the present study, we have investigated the role of CLEC-2 in platelet aggregation and thrombus formation using platelets from a novel mutant mouse model that lacks functional CLEC-2.

Why compatibilist intuitions are not mistaken: a reply to Feltz and Millan

In the past decade, a number of empirical researchers have suggested that laypeople have compatibilist intuitions. In a recent paper, Feltz and Millan (2015) have challenged this conclusion by claiming that most laypeople are only compatibilists in appearance and are in fact willing to attribute free will to people no matter what. As evidence for this claim, they have shown that an important proportion of laypeople still attribute free will to agents in fatalistic universes. In this paper, we first argue that Feltz and Millan’s error-theory rests on a conceptual confusion: it is perfectly acceptable for a certain brand of compatibilist to judge free will and fatalism to be compatible, as long as fatalism does not prevent agents from being the source of their actions. We then present the results of two studies showing that laypeople’s intuitions are best understood as following a certain brand of source compatibilism rather than a “free-will-no-matter-what” strategy.

Expression of the receptor tyrosine kinase ephb2 on dendritic cells is modulated by toll-like receptor ligation but is not required for t cell activation

The Eph receptor tyrosine kinases interact with their ephrin ligands on adjacent cells to facilitate contact-dependent cell communication. Ephrin B ligands are expressed on T cells and have been suggested to act as co-stimulatory molecules during T cell activation. There are no detailed reports of the expression and modulation of EphB receptors on dendritic cells, the main antigen presenting cells that interact with T cells. Here we show that mouse splenic dendritic cells (DC) and bone-marrow derived DCs (BMDC) express EphB2, a member of the EphB family. EphB2 expression is modulated by ligation of TLR4 and TLR9 and also by interaction with ephrin B ligands. Co-localization of EphB2 with MHC-II is also consistent with a potential role in T cell activation. However, BMDCs derived from EphB2 deficient mice were able to present antigen in the context of MHC-II and produce T cell activating cytokines to the same extent as intact DCs. Collectively our data suggest that EphB2 may contribute to DC responses, but that EphB2 is not required for T cell activation. This result may have arisen because DCs express other members of the EphB receptor family, EphB3, EphB4 and EphB6, all of which can interact with ephrin B ligands, or because EphB2 may be playing a role in another aspect of DC biology such as migration.

An Ensemble Smoother with Error Estimates

A smoother introduced earlier by van Leeuwen and Evensen is applied to a problem in which real obser vations are used in an area with strongly nonlinear dynamics. The derivation is new , but it resembles an earlier derivation by van Leeuwen and Evensen. Again a Bayesian view is taken in which the prior probability density of the model and the probability density of the obser vations are combined to for m a posterior density . The mean and the covariance of this density give the variance-minimizing model evolution and its errors. The assumption is made that the prior probability density is a Gaussian, leading to a linear update equation. Critical evaluation shows when the assumption is justified. This also sheds light on why Kalman filters, in which the same ap- proximation is made, work for nonlinear models. By reference to the derivation, the impact of model and obser vational biases on the equations is discussed, and it is shown that Bayes’ s for mulation can still be used. A practical advantage of the ensemble smoother is that no adjoint equations have to be integrated and that error estimates are easily obtained. The present application shows that for process studies a smoother will give superior results compared to a filter , not only owing to the smooth transitions at obser vation points, but also because the origin of features can be followed back in time. Also its preference over a strong-constraint method is highlighted. Further more, it is argued that the proposed smoother is more efficient than gradient descent methods or than the representer method when error estimates are taken into account

Commentary: not just genes - reclaiming a role for environmental influences on aetiology and outcome in autism. A commentary on Mandy and Lai (2016)

Mandy and Lai (2015) do the field a service in 'reclaiming' the role of pre- and postnatal environmental influences on the aetiology and course of autism spectrum conditions (ASC). This follows several decades where now discredited theories about putative psychogenic and biological disease models held sway, not least in the public mind. We discuss issues that arise from their review; including the need to identify how large the environmental influences on ASC are likely to be; the specificity of these environmental influences to ASC as opposed to a broader range of neurodevelopmental conditions and outcomes; how best to study complex interactions between genetic and environmental influences; and the promise of novel insights into their mechanisms of action. The review highlights current research that aims to better our understanding of the role of environmental factors in the aetiology and course of ASC and, in the near future, may offer the potential for personalised medicine approaches to intervention based on these discoveries.

Disparity-defined objects moving in depth do not elicit three-dimensional shape constancy

Observers generally fail to recover three-dimensional shape accurately from binocular disparity. Typically, depth is overestimated at near distances and underestimated at far distances [Johnston, E. B. (1991). Systematic distortions of shape from stereopsis. Vision Research, 31, 1351–1360]. A simple prediction from this is that disparity-defined objects should appear to expand in depth when moving towards the observer, and compress in depth when moving away. However, additional information is provided when an object moves from which 3D Euclidean shape can be recovered, be this through the addition of structure from motion information [Richards, W. (1985). Structure from stereo and motion. Journal of the Optical Society of America A, 2, 343–349], or the use of non-generic strategies [Todd, J. T., & Norman, J. F. (2003). The visual perception of 3-D shape from multiple cues: Are observers capable of perceiving metric structure? Perception and Psychophysics, 65, 31–47]. Here, we investigated shape constancy for objects moving in depth. We found that to be perceived as constant in shape, objects needed to contract in depth when moving toward the observer, and expand in depth when moving away, countering the effects of incorrect distance scaling (Johnston, 1991). This is a striking example of the failure of shape con- stancy, but one that is predicted if observers neither accurately estimate object distance in order to recover Euclidean shape, nor are able to base their responses on a simpler processing strategy.

Uncertainties in tidally adjusted estimates of sea level rise flooding (bathtub model) for the Greater London

Sea-level rise (SLR) from global warming may have severe consequences for coastal cities, particularly when combined with predicted increases in the strength of tidal surges. Predicting the regional impact of SLR flooding is strongly dependent on the modelling approach and accuracy of topographic data. Here, the areas under risk of sea water flooding for London boroughs were quantified based on the projected SLR scenarios reported in Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) fifth assessment report (AR5) and UK climatic projections 2009 (UKCP09) using a tidally-adjusted bathtub modelling approach. Medium- to very high-resolution digital elevation models (DEMs) are used to evaluate inundation extents as well as uncertainties. Depending on the SLR scenario and DEMs used, it is estimated that 3%–8% of the area of Greater London could be inundated by 2100. The boroughs with the largest areas at risk of flooding are Newham, Southwark, and Greenwich. The differences in inundation areas estimated from a digital terrain model and a digital surface model are much greater than the root mean square error differences observed between the two data types, which may be attributed to processing levels. Flood models from SRTM data underestimate the inundation extent, so their results may not be reliable for constructing flood risk maps. This analysis provides a broad-scale estimate of the potential consequences of SLR and uncertainties in the DEM-based bathtub type flood inundation modelling for London boroughs.

Metacognition and proofreading: the roles of aging, motivation, and interest

Objectives: The current study examined younger and older adults’ error detection accuracy, prediction calibration, and postdiction calibration on a proofreading task, to determine if age-related difference would be present in this type of common error detection task. Method: Participants were given text passages, and were first asked to predict the percentage of errors they would detect in the passage. They then read the passage and circled errors (which varied in complexity and locality), and made postdictions regarding their performance, before repeating this with another passage and answering a comprehension test of both passages. Results: There were no age-related differences in error detection accuracy, text comprehension, or metacognitive calibration, though participants in both age groups were overconfident overall in their metacognitive judgments. Both groups gave similar ratings of motivation to complete the task. The older adults rated the passages as more interesting than younger adults did, although this level of interest did not appear to influence error-detection performance. Discussion: The age equivalence in both proofreading ability and calibration suggests that the ability to proofread text passages and the associated metacognitive monitoring used in judging one’s own performance are maintained in aging. These age-related similarities persisted when younger adults completed the proofreading tasks on a computer screen, rather than with paper and pencil. The findings provide novel insights regarding the influence that cognitive aging may have on metacognitive accuracy and text processing in an everyday task.

An idealized study of coupled atmosphere-ocean 4D-Var in the presence of model error

Atmosphere only and ocean only variational data assimilation (DA) schemes are able to use window lengths that are optimal for the error growth rate, non-linearity and observation density of the respective systems. Typical window lengths are 6-12 hours for the atmosphere and 2-10 days for the ocean. However, in the implementation of coupled DA schemes it has been necessary to match the window length of the ocean to that of the atmosphere, which may potentially sacrifice the accuracy of the ocean analysis in order to provide a more balanced coupled state. This paper investigates how extending the window length in the presence of model error affects both the analysis of the coupled state and the initialized forecast when using coupled DA with differing degrees of coupling. Results are illustrated using an idealized single column model of the coupled atmosphere-ocean system. It is found that the analysis error from an uncoupled DA scheme can be smaller than that from a coupled analysis at the initial time, due to faster error growth in the coupled system. However, this does not necessarily lead to a more accurate forecast due to imbalances in the coupled state. Instead coupled DA is more able to update the initial state to reduce the impact of the model error on the accuracy of the forecast. The effect of model error is potentially most detrimental in the weakly coupled formulation due to the inconsistency between the coupled model used in the outer loop and uncoupled models used in the inner loop.