Do location specific forecasts pose a new challenge for communicating uncertainty?

In the last decade, the growth of local, site-specific weather forecasts delivered by mobile phone or website represents arguably the fastest change in forecast consumption since the beginning of Television weather forecasts 60 years ago. In this study, a street-interception survey of 274 members of the public a clear first preference for narrow weather forecasts above traditional broad weather forecasts is shown for the first time, with a clear bias towards this preference for users under 40. The impact of this change on the understanding of forecast probability and intensity information is explored. While the correct interpretation of the statement ‘There is a 30% chance of rain tomorrow’ is still low in the cohort, in common with previous studies, a clear impact of age and educational attainment on understanding is shown, with those under 40 and educated to degree level or above more likely to correctly interpret it. The interpretation of rainfall intensity descriptors (‘Light’, ‘Moderate’, ‘Heavy’) by the cohort is shown to be significantly different to official and expert assessment of the same descriptors and to have large variance amongst the cohort. However, despite these key uncertainties, members of the cohort generally seem to make appropriate decisions about rainfall forecasts. There is some evidence that the decisions made are different depending on the communication format used, and the cohort expressed a clear preference for tabular over graphical weather forecast presentation.

The endophytic fungus Piriformospora indica protects wheat from Fusarium crown rot disease in simulated UK autumn conditions

The root endophytic fungus Piriformospora indica (Sebacinacea) forms mutualistic symbioses with a broad range of host plants, increasing their biomass production and resistance to fungal pathogens. We evaluated the effect of P. indica on Fusarium crown rot disease of wheat, under in vitro and glasshouse conditions. Interaction of P. indica and Fusarium isolates under axenic culture conditions indicated no direct antagonistic activity of P. indica against Fusarium isolates. Seedlings of wheat were inoculated with P. indica and pathogenic Fusarium culmorum or F. graminearum and grown in sterilised soil-free medium or in a non-sterilised mix of soil and sand. Fusarium alone reduced emergence and led to visible browning and reduced root growth. Roots of seedlings in pots inoculated with both Fusarium isolates and P. indica were free of visible symptoms; seed emergence and root biomass were equivalent to the uninoculated. DNA was quantified by real-time polymerase chain reaction (qPCR). The ratio of Fusarium DNA to wheat DNA rose rapidly in the plants inoculated with Fusarium alone; isolates and species were not significantly different. P. indica inoculation reduced the ratio of Fusarium to host DNA in the root systems. The reduction increased with time. The ratio of P. indica to wheat DNA initially rose but then declined in root systems without Fusarium. With Fusarium, the ratio rose throughout the experiment. The absolute amount of Fusarium DNA in root systems increased in the absence of P. indica but was static in plants co-inoculated with P. indica.

John Wikins

My essay is an analysis of the paintings of John Wilkins that contextualizes his mode of abstract painting within the semiological turn of post eighties painting.

The principles underlying the use of powder diffraction data in solving pharmaceutical crystal structures

Solving pharmaceutical crystal structures from powder diffraction data is discussed in terms of the methodologies that have been applied and the complexity of the structures that have been solved. The principles underlying these methodologies are summarized and representative examples of polymorph, solvate, salt and cocrystal structure solutions are provided, together with examples of some particularly challenging structure determinations.

Enhanced Australian carbon sink despite increased wildfire during the 21st century

Climate projections show Australia becoming significantly warmer during the 21st century, and precipitation decreasing over much of the continent. Such changes are conventionally considered to increase wildfire risk. Nevertheless, we show that burnt area increases in southern Australia, but decreases in northern Australia. Overall the projected increase in fire is small (0.72–1.31% of land area, depending on the climate scenario used), and does not cause a decrease in carbon storage. In fact, carbon storage increases by 3.7–5.6 Pg C (depending on the climate scenario used). Using a process-based model of vegetation dynamics, vegetation–fire interactions and carbon cycling, we show increased fire promotes a shift to more fire-adapted trees in wooded areas and their encroachment into grasslands, with an overall increase in forested area of 3.9–11.9%. Both changes increase carbon uptake and storage. The increase in woody vegetation increases the amount of coarse litter, which decays more slowly than fine litter hence leading to a relative reduction in overall heterotrophic respiration, further reducing carbon losses. Direct CO2 effects increase woody cover, water-use efficiency and productivity, such that carbon storage is increased by 8.5–14.8 Pg C compared to simulations in which CO2 is held constant at modern values. CO2 effects tend to increase burnt area, fire fluxes and therefore carbon losses in arid areas, but increase vegetation density and reduce burnt area in wooded areas.

Acrylamide in potato crisps prepared from 20 UK-grown varieties: effects of variety and tuber storage time

Twenty varieties of field-grown potato were stored for 2 months and 6 months at 8 °C. Mean acrylamide contents in crisps prepared from all varieties at both storage times ranged from 131 μg per kg in Verdi to 5360 μg per kg in Pentland Dell. In contrast to previous studies, the longer storage period did not affect acrylamide formation significantly for most varieties, the exceptions being Innovator, where acrylamide formation increased, and Saturna, where it decreased. Four of the five varieties designated as suitable for crisping produced crisps with acrylamide levels below the European Commission indicative value of 1000 μg per kg (Saturna, Lady Rosetta, Lady Claire, and Verdi); the exception was Hermes. Two varieties more often used for French fries, Markies and Fontane, also produced crisps with less than 1000 μg per kg acrylamide. Correlations between acrylamide, its precursors and crisp colour are described, and the implications of the results for production of potato crisps are discussed.

A traceable physical calibration of the vertical advection-diffusion equation for modelling ocean heat uptake

The classic vertical advection-diffusion (VAD) balance is a central concept in studying the ocean heat budget, in particular in simple climate models (SCMs). Here we present a new framework to calibrate the parameters of the VAD equation to the vertical ocean heat balance of two fully-coupled climate models that is traceable to the models’ circulation as well as to vertical mixing and diffusion processes. Based on temperature diagnostics, we derive an effective vertical velocity w∗ and turbulent diffusivity k∗ for each individual physical process. In steady-state, we find that the residual vertical velocity and diffusivity change sign in mid-depth, highlighting the different regional contributions of isopycnal and diapycnal diffusion in balancing the models’ residual advection and vertical mixing. We quantify the impacts of the time-evolution of the effective quantities under a transient 1%CO2 simulation and make the link to the parameters of currently employed SCMs.

The Article 51 reporting requirement for self-defense actions

This article examines one legal criterion for the exercise of the right of self-defense that has been significantly overlooked by commentators: the so-called “reporting requirement.” Article 51 of the United Nations (UN) Charter provides, inter alia, that “[m]easures taken by members in the exercise of this right of self-defense shall be immediately reported to the Security Council.” Although the requirement to report all self-defense actions to the Council is clearly set out in Article 51, the Charter offers no further guidance with regard to this obligation. Reference to the practice of states since the UN’s inception in 1945 is therefore essential to understanding the scope and nature of the reporting requirement. As such, this article is underpinned by an extensive original dataset of reporting practice covering the period from January 1, 1998 to December 31, 2013. We know from Article 51 that states “shall” report, but do they, and—if so—in what manner? What are the various implications of reporting, of failing to report, and of the way in which states report? How are reports used, and by whom? Most importantly, this article questions the ultimate value of states reporting their self-defense actions to the Security Council in modern interstate relations.

Emergence of spatially heterogeneous burst suppression in a neural field model of electrocortical activity

Burst suppression in the electroencephalogram (EEG) is a well-described phenomenon that occurs during deep anesthesia, as well as in a variety of congenital and acquired brain insults. Classically it is thought of as spatially synchronous, quasi-periodic bursts of high amplitude EEG separated by low amplitude activity. However, its characterization as a “global brain state” has been challenged by recent results obtained with intracranial electrocortigraphy. Not only does it appear that burst suppression activity is highly asynchronous across cortex, but also that it may occur in isolated regions of circumscribed spatial extent. Here we outline a realistic neural field model for burst suppression by adding a slow process of synaptic resource depletion and recovery, which is able to reproduce qualitatively the empirically observed features during general anesthesia at the whole cortex level. Simulations reveal heterogeneous bursting over the model cortex and complex spatiotemporal dynamics during simulated anesthetic action, and provide forward predictions of neuroimaging signals for subsequent empirical comparisons and more detailed characterization. Because burst suppression corresponds to a dynamical end-point of brain activity, theoretically accounting for its spatiotemporal emergence will vitally contribute to efforts aimed at clarifying whether a common physiological trajectory is induced by the actions of general anesthetic agents. We have taken a first step in this direction by showing that a neural field model can qualitatively match recent experimental data that indicate spatial differentiation of burst suppression activity across cortex.

High-frequency water quality monitoring in an urban catchment: hydrochemical dynamics, primary production and implications for the Water Framework Directive

This paper describes the hydrochemistry of a lowland, urbanised river-system, The Cut in England, using in situ sub-daily sampling. The Cut receives effluent discharges from four major sewage treatment works serving around 190,000 people. These discharges consist largely of treated water, originally abstracted from the River Thames and returned via the water supply network, substantially increasing the natural flow. The hourly water quality data were supplemented by weekly manual sampling with laboratory analysis to check the hourly data and measure further determinands. Mean phosphorus and nitrate concentrations were very high, breaching standards set by EU legislation. Though 56% of the catchment area is agricultural, the hydrochemical dynamics were significantly impacted by effluent discharges which accounted for approximately 50% of the annual P catchment input loads and, on average, 59% of river flow at the monitoring point. Diurnal dissolved oxygen data demonstrated high in-stream productivity. From a comparison of high frequency and conventional monitoring data, it is inferred that much of the primary production was dominated by benthic algae, largely diatoms. Despite the high productivity and nutrient concentrations, the river water did not become anoxic and major phytoplankton blooms were not observed. The strong diurnal and annual variation observed showed that assessments of water quality made under the Water Framework Directive (WFD) are sensitive to the time and season of sampling. It is recommended that specific sampling time windows be specified for each determinand, and that WFD targets should be applied in combination to help identify periods of greatest ecological risk. This article is protected by copyright. All rights reserved.

Validation of the NANA (Novel Assessment of Nutrition and Ageing) touch screen system for use at home by older adults

Prospective measurement of nutrition, cognition, and physical activity in later life would facilitate early detection of detrimental change and early intervention but is hard to achieve in community settings. Technology can simplify the task and facilitate daily data collection. The Novel Assessment of Nutrition and Ageing (NANA) toolkit was developed to provide a holistic picture of an individual's function including diet, cognition and activity levels. This study aimed to validate the NANA toolkit for data collection in the community. Forty participants aged 65 years and over trialled the NANA toolkit in their homes for three 7-day periods at four-week intervals. Data collected using the NANA toolkit were compared with standard measures of diet (four-day food diary), cognitive ability (processing speed) and physical activity (self-report). Bland–Altman analysis of dietary intake (energy, carbohydrates, protein fat) found a good relationship with the food diary and cognitive processing speed and physical activity (hours) were significantly correlated with their standard counterparts. The NANA toolkit enables daily reporting of data that would otherwise be collected sporadically while reducing demands on participants; older adults can complete the daily reporting at home without a researcher being present; and it enables prospective investigation of several domains at once

Methane emissions from cattle: estimates from short-term measurements using a Green Feed system compared with measurements obtained using respiration chambers or sulphur hexafluoride tracer

The Green Feed (GF) system (C-Lock Inc., Rapid City, USA) is used to estimate total daily methane emissions of individual cattle using short-term measurements obtained over several days. Our objective was to compare measurements of methane emission by growing cattle obtained using the GF system with measurements using respiration chambers (RC)or sulphur hexafluoride tracer (SF6). It was hypothesised that estimates of methane emission for individual animals and treatments would be similar for GF compared to RC or SF6 techniques. In experiment 1, maize or grass silage-based diets were fed to four growing Holstein heifers, whilst for experiment 2, four different heifers were fed four haylage treatments. Both experiments were a 4 × 4 Latin square design with 33 day periods. Green Feed measurements of methane emission were obtained over 7 days (days 22–28) and com-pared to subsequent RC measurements over 4 days (days 29–33). For experiment 3, 12growing heifers rotationally grazed three swards for 26 days, with simultaneous GF and SF6 measurements over two 4 day measurement periods (days 15–19 and days 22–26).Overall methane emissions (g/day and g/kg dry matter intake [DMI]) measured using GF in experiments 1 (198 and 26.6, respectively) and 2 (208 and 27.8, respectively) were similar to averages obtained using RC (218 and 28.3, respectively for experiment 1; and 209 and 27.7, respectively, for experiment 2); but there was poor concordance between the two methods (0.1043 for experiments 1 and 2 combined). Overall, methane emissions measured using SF6 were higher (P<0.001) than GF during grazing (186 vs. 164 g/day), but there was significant (P<0.01) concordance between the two methods (0.6017). There were fewer methane measurements by GF under grazing conditions in experiment 3 (1.60/day) com-pared to indoor measurements in experiments 1 (2.11/day) and 2 (2.34/day). Significant treatment effects on methane emission measured using RC and SF6 were not evident for GF measurements, and the ranking for treatments and individual animals differed using the GF system. We conclude that under our conditions of use the GF system was unable to detectsignificant treatment and individual animal differences in methane emissions that were identified using both RC and SF6techniques, in part due to limited numbers and timing ofmeasurements obtained. Our data suggest that successful use of the GF system is reliant on the number and timing of measurements obtained relative to diurnal patterns of methane emission.

Wireless Sensor Networks: MAC protocols and real time applications

Wireless Senor Networks(WSNs) detect events using one or more sensors, then collect data from detected events using these sensors. This data is aggregated and forwarded to a base station(sink) through wireless communication to provide the required operations. Different kinds of MAC and routing protocols need to be designed for WSN in order to guarantee data delivery from the source nodes to the sink. Some of the proposed MAC protocols for WSN with their techniques, advantages and disadvantages in the terms of their suitability for real time applications are discussed in this paper. We have concluded that most of these protocols can not be applied to real time applications without improvement