Reply to comment: is climate change the most likely driver of range expansion of a critically endangered top predator in northeast Atlantic waters?

The comment by Votier et al. (2008) on our recently published article (Wynn et al. 2007) contains two main criticisms: (i) that our analytical approach is inappropriate and (ii) that we have failed to acknowledge other factors that may have contributed to the change in Balearic Shearwater numbers recorded throughout northwest European waters. We strongly disagree with both these criticisms.

Optimal foraging strategies: Lévy walks balance searching and patch exploitation under a very broad range of conditions

While evidence for optimal random search patterns, known as Lévy walks, in empirical movement data is mounting for a growing list of taxa spanning motile cells to humans, there is still much debate concerning the theoretical generality of Lévy walk optimisation. Here, using a new and robust simulation environment, we investigate in the most detailed study to date (24×10(6) simulations) the foraging and search efficiencies of 2-D Lévy walks with a range of exponents, target resource distributions and several competing models. We find strong and comprehensive support for the predictions of the Lévy flight foraging hypothesis and in particular for the optimality of inverse square distributions of move step-lengths across a much broader range of resource densities and distributions than previously realised. Further support for the evolutionary advantage of Lévy walk movement patterns is provided by an investigation into the 'feast and famine' effect, with Lévy foragers in heterogeneous environments experiencing fewer long 'famines' than other types of searchers. Therefore overall, optimal Lévy foraging results in more predictable resources in unpredictable environments.

Tillin, H. & Tyler-Walters, H., 2014. Assessing the sensitivity of subtidal sedimentary habitats to pressures associated with marine activities. Phase 2 Report – Literature review and sensitivity assessments for ecological groups for circalittoral and offshore Level 5 biotopes. JNCC Report No. 512B, 260 pp.

Human activities within the marine environment give rise to a number of pressures on seabed habitats. Improved understanding of the sensitivity of subtidal sedimentary habitats is required to underpin the management advice provided for Marine Protected Areas, as well as supporting other UK marine monitoring and assessment work. The sensitivity of marine sedimentary habitats to a range of pressures induced by human activities has previously been systematically assessed using approaches based on expert judgement for Defra Project MB0102 (Tillin et al. 2010). This previous work assessed sensitivity at the level of the broadscale habitat and therefore the scores were typically expressed as a range due to underlying variation in the sensitivity of the constituent biotopes. The objective of this project was to reduce the uncertainty around identifying the sensitivity of selected subtidal sedimentary habitats by assessing sensitivity, at a finer scale and incorporating information on the biological assemblage, for 33 Level 5 circalittoral and offshore biotopes taken from the Marine Habitat Classification of Britain and Ireland (Connor et al. 2004). Two Level 6 sub-biotopes were also included in this project as these contain distinctive characterising species that differentiate them from the Level 5 parent biotope. Littoral, infralittoral, reduced and variable salinity sedimentary habitats were excluded from this project as the scope was set for assessment of circalittoral and offshore sedimentary communities. This project consisted of three Phases. • Phase 1 - define ecological groups based on similarities in the sensitivity of characterising species from the Level 5 and two Level 6 biotopes described above. • Phase 2 - produce a literature review of information on the resilience and resistance of characterising species of the ecological groups to pressures associated with activities in the marine environment. • Phase 3 - to produce sensitivity assessment ‘proformas’ based on the findings of Phase 2 for each ecological group. This report outlines results of Phase 2. The Tillin et al., (2010) sensitivity assessment methodology was modified to use the best available scientific evidence that could be collated within the project timescale. An extensive literature review was compiled, for peer reviewed and grey literature, to examine current understanding about the effects of pressures from human activities on circalittoral and offshore sedimentary communities in UK continental shelf waters, together with information on factors that contribute to resilience (recovery) of marine species. This review formed the basis of an assessment of the sensitivity of the 16 ecological groups identified in Phase 1 of the project (Tillin & Tyler-Walters 2014). As a result: • the state of knowledge on the effects of each pressure on circalittoral and offshore benthos was reviewed; • the resistance, resilience and, hence, sensitivity of sixteen ecological groups, representing 96 characteristic species, were assessed for eight separate pressures; • each assessment was accompanied by a detailed review of the relevant evidence; Assessing the sensitivity of subtidal sedimentary habitats to pressures associated with human activities • knowledge gaps and sources of uncertainty were identified for each group; • each assessment was accompanied by an assessment of the quality of the evidence, its applicability to the assessment and the degree of concordance (agreement) between the evidence, to highlight sources of uncertainty as an assessment of the overall confidence in the sensitivity assessment, and finally • limitations in the methodology and the application of sensitivity assessments were outlined. This process demonstrated that the ecological groups identified in Phase 1 (Tillin & Tyler-Walters 2014) were viable groups for sensitivity assessment, and could be used to represent the 33 circalittoral and offshore sediments biotopes identified at the beginning of the project. The results of the sensitivity assessments show: • the majority of species and hence ecological groups in sedimentary habitats are sensitive to physical change, especially loss of habitat and sediment extraction, and change in sediment type; • most sedimentary species are sensitive to physical damage, e.g. abrasion and penetration, although deep burrowing species (e.g. the Dublin Bay prawn - Nephrops norvegicus and the sea cucumber - Neopentadactyla mixta) are able to avoid damaging effects to varying degrees, depending on the depth of penetration and time of year; • changes in hydrography (wave climate, tidal streams and currents) can significantly affect sedimentary communities, depending on whether they are dominated by deposit, infaunal feeders or suspension feeders, and dependant on the nature of the sediment, which is itself modified by hydrography and depth; • sedentary species and ecological groups that dominate the top-layer of the sediment (either shallow burrowing or epifaunal) remain the most sensitive to physical damage; • mobile species (e.g. interstitial and burrowing amphipods, and perhaps cumaceans) are the least sensitive to physical change or damage, and hydrological change as they are already adapted to unstable, mobile substrata; • sensitivity to changes in organic enrichment and hence oxygen levels, is variable between species and ecological groups, depending on the exact habitat preferences of the species in question, although most species have at least a medium sensitivity to acute deoxygenation; • there is considerable evidence on the effects of bottom-contact fishing practices and aggregate dredging on sedimentary communities, although not all evidence is directly applicable to every ecological group; • there is lack of detailed information on the physiological tolerances (e.g. to oxygenation, salinity, and temperature), habitat preferences, life history and population dynamics of many species, so that inferences has been made from related species, families, or even the same phylum; • there was inadequate evidence to assess the effects of non-indigenous species on most ecological groups, and Assessing the sensitivity of subtidal sedimentary habitats to pressures associated with human activities • there was inadequate evidence to assess the effects of electromagnetic fields and litter on any ecological group. The resultant report provides an up-to-date review of current knowledge about the effects of pressures resulting from human activities of circalittoral and offshore sedimentary communities. It provides an evidence base to facilitate and support the provision of management advice for Marine Protected Areas, development of UK marine monitoring and assessment, and conservation advice to offshore marine industries. However, such a review will require at least annual updates to take advantage of new evidence and new research as it becomes available. Also further work is required to test how ecological group assessments are best combined in practice to advise on the sensitivity of a range of sedimentary biotopes, including the 33 that were originally examined.

Global carbon budget 2014

Accurate assessment of anthropogenic carbon dioxide (CO2) emissions and their redistribution among the atmosphere, ocean, and terrestrial biosphere is important to better understand the global carbon cycle, support the development of climate policies, and project future climate change. Here we describe data sets and a methodology to quantify all major components of the global carbon budget, including their uncertainties, based on the combination of a range of data, algorithms, statistics, and model estimates and their interpretation by a broad scientific community. We discuss changes compared to previous estimates, consistency within and among components, alongside methodology and data limitations. CO2 emissions from fossil fuel combustion and cement production (E-FF) are based on energy statistics and cement production data, respectively, while emissions from land-use change (E-LUC), mainly deforestation, are based on combined evidence from land-cover-change data, fire activity associated with deforestation, and models. The global atmospheric CO2 concentration is measured directly and its rate of growth (G(ATM)) is computed from the annual changes in concentration. The mean ocean CO2 sink (S-OCEAN) is based on observations from the 1990s, while the annual anomalies and trends are estimated with ocean models. The variability in S-OCEAN is evaluated with data products based on surveys of ocean CO2 measurements. The global residual terrestrial CO2 sink (S-LAND) is estimated by the difference of the other terms of the global carbon budget and compared to results of independent dynamic global vegetation models forced by observed climate, CO2, and land-cover-change (some including nitrogen-carbon interactions). We compare the mean land and ocean fluxes and their variability to estimates from three atmospheric inverse methods for three broad latitude bands. All uncertainties are reported as +/- 1 sigma, reflecting the current capacity to characterise the annual estimates of each component of the global carbon budget. For the last decade available (2004-2013), E-FF was 8.9 +/- 0.4 GtC yr(-1), E-LUC 0.9 +/- 0.5 GtC yr(-1), G(ATM) 4.3 +/- 0.1 GtC yr(-1), S-OCEAN 2.6 +/- 0.5 GtC yr(-1), and S-LAND 2.9 +/- 0.8 GtC yr(-1). For year 2013 alone, E-FF grew to 9.9 +/- 0.5 GtC yr(-1), 2.3% above 2012, continuing the growth trend in these emissions, E-LUC was 0.9 +/- 0.5 GtC yr(-1), G(ATM) was 5.4 +/- 0.2 GtC yr(-1), S-OCEAN was 2.9 +/- 0.5 GtC yr(-1), and S-LAND was 2.5 +/- 0.9 GtC yr(-1). G(ATM) was high in 2013, reflecting a steady increase in E-FF and smaller and opposite changes between S-OCEAN and S-LAND compared to the past decade (2004-2013). The global atmospheric CO2 concentration reached 395.31 +/- 0.10 ppm averaged over 2013. We estimate that E-FF will increase by 2.5% (1.3-3.5 %) to 10.1 +/- 0.6 GtC in 2014 (37.0 +/- 2.2 GtCO(2) yr(-1)), 65% above emissions in 1990, based on projections of world gross domestic product and recent changes in the carbon intensity of the global economy. From this projection of E-FF and assumed constant E-LUC for 2014, cumulative emissions of CO2 will reach about 545 +/- 55 GtC (2000 +/- 200 GtCO(2)) for 1870-2014, about 75% from E-FF and 25% from E-LUC. This paper documents changes in the methods and data sets used in this new carbon budget compared with previous publications of this living data set (Le Quere et al., 2013, 2014). All observations presented here can be downloaded from the Carbon Dioxide Information Analysis Center (doi:10.3334/CDIAC/GCP_2014).

Metocean Comparisons of Jason-2 and AltiKa—A Method to Develop a New Wind Speed Algorithm

As well as range, the AltiKa altimeter provides estimates of wave height, Hs and normalized backscatter, s0, that need to be assessed prior to statistics based on them being included in climate databases. An analysis of crossovers with the Jason-2 altimeter shows AltiKa Hs values to be biased high by only »0.05m, with a standard deviation (s.d.) of »0.1m for seven-point averages. AltiKa’s s 0 values are 2.5–3 dB less than those from Jason-2, with a s.d. of »0.3 dB, with these relatively large mismatches to be expected as AltiKa measures a different part of the spectrum of sea surface roughness. A new wind speed algorithm is developed through matchinghistogram of s0 values to that for Jason-2 wind speeds. The algorithm is robust to the use of short durations of data, with a consistency at roughly the 0.1 m/s level. Incorporation of Hs as a secondary input reduces the assessed error at crossovers from 0.82 m/s to 0.71 m/s. A comparison across all altimeter frequencies used to date demonstrates that the lowest wind speeds preferentially develop the shortest scales of roughness.

Recombinant alpha 2(IV)NC1 domain of type IV collagen is an effective regulator of retinal capillary endothelial cell proliferation and inhibits pre-retinal neovascularisation

Background A recombinant form of the alpha 2(IV)NC1 domain of type IV collagen has been shown to have potent anti-angiogenic activity although this peptide has not been studied in the context of proliferative retinopathies. In the current investigation we examined the potential for alpha 2(IV) NC1 to regulate retinal microvascular endothelial cell function using a range of in vitro and in vivo assay systems.

A phase 2 study of high-activity 186Re-HEDP with autologous peripheral blood stem cell transplant in progressive hormone-refractory prostate cancer metastatic to bone

Purpose: We investigated the potential for improvement in disease control by use of autologous peripheral blood stem cell transplant (PBSCT) to permit administration of high activities of 186Re-hydroxyethylidene diphosphonate (HEDP) in patients with progressive hormone-refractory prostate cancer (HRPC).

Methods: Eligible patients had progressive HRPC metastatic to bone, good performance status and minimal soft tissue disease. Patients received 5,000 MBq of 186Re-HEDP i.v., followed 14 days later by PBSCT. Response was assessed using PSA, survival, pain scores and quality of life.

Results: Thirty-eight patients with a median age of 67 years (range 50–77) and a median PSA of 57 ng/ml (range 4–3,628) received a median activity of 4,978 MBq 186Re-HEDP (range 4,770–5,100 MBq). The most serious toxicity was short-lived grade 3 thrombocytopenia in 8 (21%) patients. The median survival of the group is 21 months (95%CI 18–24 months) with Kaplan-Meier estimated 1- and 2-year survival rates of 83% and 40% respectively. Thirty-one patients (81%, 95% CI 66–90%) had stable or reduced PSA levels 3 months post therapy while 11 (29%, 95% CI 15–49%) had PSA reductions of >50% lasting >4 weeks. Quality of life measures were stable or improved in 27 (66%) at 3 months.

Conclusion: We have shown that it is feasible and safe to deliver high-activity radioisotope therapy with PBSCT to men with metastatic HRPC. Response rates and survival data are encouraging; however, further research is needed to define optimal role of this treatment approach.

Antisense Bcl-2 Oligonucleotide Uptake in Human Transitional Cell Carcinoma.

Objectives; Antisense oligonucleotides (AO) downregulate Bcl-2 protein expression in various tumours if good target cell uptake is achieved. In this study, uptake of FITC labelled AO (FITC-AO) directed at Bcl-2 was examined in; (1) the RT4 bladder tumour cell line (2) normal pig urothelium and (3) human superficial bladder tumours. Methods; In the RT4 cell line, uptake of FITC-AO, FITC-scrambled and FITC-sense oligonucleotides were quantified by flow cytometry at 4h intervals over 24h. Uptake of FITC-AO was assessed in normal pig urothelium by flow cytometry after FITC-AO was infused for 1h. Uptake of FITC AO was assessed in samples from 14 human superficial bladder tumours which were maintained in an ex vivo model. In samples from 6 tumours, uptake at 4h was assessed using fluorescence microscopy. In samples from 8 separate tumours uptake every 4h within the first 24h incubation period was assessed by flow cytometry. Results; In the RT4 cell line the FITC-AO, FITC-scrambled and FITC-sense oligonucleotide uptake was similar. Disaggregated cells from the normal urothelium of the three pigs exhibited 33%, 46%, 51% of cells staining positively for FITC-AO as determined by flow cytometry. All 6 tumour samples had detectable intracellular FITC-AO by fluorescence microscopy at 4h. In the 8 tumours ,examined over the 24h incubation period, there was a range of percentages of positively staining cells. However, most tumours had a monotonic increase in intracellular fluorescence intensity that plateaued 16h post infusion. Conclusion; Antisense Bcl-2 oligonucleotides were readily taken up by superficial bladder cancer cells but the heterogenous uptake in tumour samples needs to be considered when assessing the bioavailability of these drugs.

High-resolution spectroscopic observations of B-type stars from the Edinburgh-Cape Survey - III. Completion of a magnitude range limited survey

High spectral resolution (R similar to 40 000) and signal-to- noise ratio observations of five high Galactic latitude early- type stars taken from the Edinburgh-Cape (EC) Faint Blue Object Survey are presented. These were required to complete a magnitude range-limited survey of young B-type objects with 11 <V <15. Of the five stars, four were rejected on the grounds that they are either subluminous (subdwarf or horizontal branch), were part of a binary system or possessed colours later than the (U - B) = -0.5 cut-off employed. The remaining star in the data set, EC 19596-5356, is found to exhibit normal young B-type stellar properties. A kinematic analysis reveals that an origin in the Galactic disc appears likely for all the stars in the sample. Some statistics are drawn about the number density of young stars in the Galactic halo.

A family with erythrocytosis establishes a role for prolyl hydroxylase domain protein 2 in oxygen homeostasis

The number of red blood cells is normally tightly regulated by a classic homeostatic mechanism based on oxygen sensing in the kidney. Decreased oxygen delivery resulting from anemia induces the production of erythropoietin, which increases red cell production and hence oxygen delivery. Investigations of erythropoietin regulation identified the transcription factor hypoxia-inducible factor (HIF). HIF is now recognized as being a key regulator of genes that function in a comprehensive range of processes besides erythropoiesis, including energy metabolism and angiogenesis. HIF itself is regulated through the -subunit, which is hydroxylated in the presence of oxygen by a family of three prolyl hydroxylase domain proteins (PHDs)/HIF prolyl hydroxylases/egg-laying-defective nine enzymes. Hydroxylation allows capture by the von Hippel–Lindau tumor suppressor gene product, ubiquitination, and destruction by the proteasome. Here we describe an inherited mutation in a mammalian PHD enzyme. We show that this mutation in PHD2 results in a marked decrease in enzyme activity and is associated with familial erythrocytosis, identifying a previously unrecognized cause of this condition. Our findings indicate that PHD2 is critical for normal regulation of HIF in humans.

CCD photometry of distant comets. III - Ensemble properties of Jupiter-family comets

We describe the results of a ground-based observational "snapshot" study of Jupiter-family comets in the heliocentric range 2.29 AU less than or equal to R-h less than or equal to 5.72 AU. Results are presented based on observations from the 1m JKT on the island of La Palma. A total of 25 comets were targeted with 15 being positively detected. Broad-band VRI photometry was performed to determine dimensions, colour indices, and dust production rates in terms of the "A frho" formalism. The results for selected comets are compared with previous investigations. Ensemble properties of the Jupiter- family population have been investigated by combining the results presented here with those of Lowry et al. (1999), and Lowry & Fitzsimmons (2001). We find that the cumulative size distribution of the Jupiter-family comets can be described by a power law of the form; Sigma(> r) proportional to r(-1.6+/- 0.1). This size distribution is considerably shallower than that found for the observed Edgeworth-Kuiper belt objects, which may reflect either an intrinsic difference at small km- sizes in the belt, or the various processes affecting the nuclei of comets as their orbits evolve from the Edgeworth- Kuiper belt to the inner Solar system. Also, there would appear to be no correlation between nuclear absolute magnitude and perihelion distance. Finally, for the sample of active comets, there is a distinct correlation between absolute R band magnitude and perihelion distance, which can be explained by either a discovery bias towards brighter comets or in terms of "rubble" mantle formation.

Effective collision strengths for transitions among the 3s(2), 3s3p and 3p(2) configurations of Fe xv

Effective collision strengths for transitions among the ten energetically lowest fine-structure levels belonging to the (1s(2)2s(2)2p(6))3s(2), 3s3p and 3p(2) configurations of Fe xv have been calculated in the electron temperature range of 10(5)-10(7) K, using the recent Dirac atomic R-matrix code of Norrington and Grant. The results are compared with the other recently available independent Breit-Pauli R-matrix calculations of Eissner et al (Eissner W, Galavis M E, Mendoza C and Zeippen C J 1999 Astron. Astrophys. Suppl. 137 165) and Griffin et al (Griffin DC, Badnell N R, Pindzola M S and Shaw J A 1999 J. Phys. B: At. Mol. Opt. Phys. 32 2139, 4129). Large differences are observed for many transitions over almost the entire temperature range. These differences are analysed and discussed, and the accuracy of the calculations is assessed.

Vibrational properties of nanometric AB(2) ionic clusters

A broad survey of harmonic dynamics in AB(2) clusters with up to N = 3000 atoms is performed using a simple rigid ion model, with ionic radii selected to give rutile as the ground state structure for the corresponding extended crystal. The vibrational density of states is already close to its bulk counterpart for N similar to 500, with characteristic differences due to surfaces, edges and vertices. Two methods are proposed and tested to map the cluster vibrational states onto the rutile crystal phonons. The net distinction between infrared (IR) active and Raman active modes that exists for bulk rutile becomes more and more blurred as the cluster size is reduced. It is found that, in general, the higher the IR activity of the mode, the more this is affected by the system size. IR active modes are found to spread over a wide frequency range for the finite clusters. Simple models based on either a crude confinement constraint or surface pressure arguments fail to reproduce the results of the calculations. The effects of the stoichiometry and dielectric properties of the surrounding medium on the vibrational properties of the clusters are also investigated.

Collision mechanisms in one-electron capture by slow H and He- like ions of C, N and O in H and H-2

Translational energy spectroscopy (TES) has been used to study state-selective one-electron capture by H and He-like ions of C, N and O in both H and H-2 within the range 250-900 eV amu(- 1). The main collision mechanisms leading to state-selective electron capture have been identified, their relative importance assessed and compared, where possible, with theoretical predictions and with any previous measurements based on photon emission spectroscopy. For one-electron capture in H-2, the relative importance of contributions from non- dissociative and dissociative capture as well as from two- electron capture into autoionizing states is found to be strikingly different for the cases considered. Our TES measurements in atomic hydrogen provide an important extension of previous measurements to energies below 1000 eV amu(-1) and show that, as the impact energy decreases, electron capture becomes more selective until only a single n product channel is significant. These product main channels are well described by reaction windows calculated using a Landau-Zener approach. However, the same approach applied to the more complex energy- change spectra observed in H-2 is found to be less successful.