Anthropogenic warming of the oceans: Observations and model results

Observations show the oceans have warmed over the past 40 yr. with appreciable regional variation and more warming at the surface than at depth. Comparing the observations with results from two coupled ocean-atmosphere climate models [the Parallel Climate Model version 1 (PCM) and the Hadley Centre Coupled Climate Model version 3 (HadCM3)] that include anthropogenic forcing shows remarkable agreement between the observed and model-estimated warming. In this comparison the models were sampled at the same locations as gridded yearly observed data. In the top 100 m of the water column the warming is well separated from natural variability, including both variability arising from internal instabilities of the coupled ocean-atmosphere climate system and that arising from volcanism and solar fluctuations. Between 125 and 200 m the agreement is not significant, but then increases again below this level, and remains significant down to 600 m. Analysis of PCM's heat budget indicates that the warming is driven by an increase in net surface heat flux that reaches 0.7 W m(-2) by the 1990s; the downward longwave flux increases bv 3.7 W m(-2). which is not fully compensated by an increase in the upward longwave flux of 2.2 W m(-2). Latent and net solar heat fluxes each decrease by about 0.6 W m(-2). The changes in the individual longwave components are distinguishable from the preindustrial mean by the 1920s, but due to cancellation of components. changes in the net surface heat flux do not become well separated from zero until the 1960s. Changes in advection can also play an important role in local ocean warming due to anthropogenic forcing, depending, on the location. The observed sampling of ocean temperature is highly variable in space and time. but sufficient to detect the anthropogenic warming signal in all basins, at least in the surface layers, bv the 1980s.

Evaluation of ozone and water vapor fields from the ECMWF reanalysis ERA-40 during 1991-1999 in comparison with UARS satellite and MOZAIC aircraft observations

[ 1] The European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF) 40-year Reanalysis (ERA-40) ozone and water vapor reanalysis fields during the 1990s have been compared with independent satellite data from the Halogen Occultation Experiment (HALOE) and Microwave Limb Sounder (MLS) instruments on board the Upper Atmosphere Research Satellite (UARS). In addition, ERA-40 has been compared with aircraft data from the Measurements of Ozone and Water Vapour by Airbus In-Service Aircraft (MOZAIC) program. Overall, in comparison with the values derived from the independent observations, the upper stratosphere in ERA-40 has about 5 - 10% more ozone and 15 - 20% less water vapor. This dry bias in the reanalysis appears to be global and extends into the middle stratosphere down to 40 hPa. Most of the discrepancies and seasonal variations between ERA-40 and the independent observations occur within the upper troposphere over the tropics and the lower stratosphere over the high latitudes. ERA-40 reproduces a weaker Antarctic ozone hole, and of less vertical extent, than the independent observations; values in the ozone maximum in the tropical stratosphere are lower for the reanalysis. ERA-40 mixing ratios of water vapor are considerably larger than those for MOZAIC, typically by 20% in the tropical upper troposphere, and they may exceed 60% in the lower stratosphere over high latitudes. The results imply that the Brewer-Dobson circulation in the ECMWF reanalysis system is too fast, as is also evidenced by deficiencies in the way ERA-40 reproduces the water vapor "tape recorder'' signal in the tropical stratosphere. Finally, the paper examines the biases and their temporal variation during the 1990s in the way ERA-40 compares to the independent observations. We also discuss how the evaluation results depend on the instrument used, as well as on the version of the data.

UK commercial property lease structures: Landlord and tenant mismatch

UK commercial property lease structures have come under considerable scrutiny during the past decade since the property crash of the early 1990s. In particular, tenants complained that the system was unfair and that it has blocked business change. Government is committed, through its 2001 election manifesto, to promote flexibility and choice in the commercial property lettings market and a new voluntary Commercial Leases Code of Practice was launched in April 2002. This paper investigates whether occupiers are being offered the leases they require or whether there is a mismatch between occupier requirements and actual leases in the market. It draws together the substantial data now available on the actual terms of leases in the UK and surveys of corporate occupiers' attitude to their occupation requirements. Although the data indicated that UK leases have become shorter and more diverse since 1990, this is still not sufficient to meet the current requirements of many corporate occupiers. It is clear that the inability to manage entry and exit strategies is a major concern to occupiers. Lease length is the primary concern of tenants and a number of respondents comment on the mismatch between lease length in the UK and business planning horizons. The right to break and other problems with alienation clauses also pose serious difficulties for occupiers, thus reinforcing the mismatch. Other issues include repairing and insuring clauses and the type of review clause. There are differences in opinion between types of occupier. In particular, international corporate occupiers are significantly more concerned about the length of lease and the incidence of break clauses than national occupiers and private-sector tenants are significantly more concerned about leasing in general than public-sector occupiers. Proposed solutions by tenants are predictable and include shorter leases, more frequent breaks and relaxation of restrictions concerning alienation and other clauses. A significant number specify that they would pay more for shorter leases and other improved terms. Short leases would make many of the other terms more acceptable and this is why they are the main concern of corporate occupiers. Overall, the evidence suggests that there continues to be a gap between occupiers' lease requirements and those currently offered by the market. There are underlying structural factors that act as an inertial force on landlords and inhibit the changes which occupiers appear to want. Nevertheless, the findings raise future research questions concerning whether UK lease structures are a constraining factor on UK competitiveness.

Orde Wingate and the Theory behind the Chindit Operations: Some Recent Findings

This short paper discusses some of the theory behind the Chindit operations in Burma of 1943-44, drawing parallels between Wingate's theoretical concepts post 1990s concepts of 'manoeuvre warfare.'

Constraining a North Atlantic Ocean general circulation model with chlorofluorocarbon observations

Measurements of anthropogenic tracers such as chlorofluorocarbons and tritium must be quantitatively combined with ocean general circulation models as a component of systematic model development. The authors have developed and tested an inverse method, using a Green's function, to constrain general circulation models with transient tracer data. Using this method chlorofluorocarbon-11 and -12 (CFC-11 and -12) observations are combined with a North Atlantic configuration of the Miami Isopycnic Coordinate Ocean Model with 4/3 degrees resolution. Systematic differences can be seen between the observed CFC concentrations and prior CFC fields simulated by the model. These differences are reduced by the inversion, which determines the optimal gas transfer across the air-sea interface, accounting for uncertainties in the tracer observations. After including the effects of unresolved variability in the CFC fields, the model is found to be inconsistent with the observations because the model/data misfit slightly exceeds the error estimates. By excluding observations in waters ventilated north of the Greenland-Scotland ridge (sigma (0) < 27.82 kg m(-3); shallower than about 2000 m), the fit is improved, indicating that the Nordic overflows are poorly represented in the model. Some systematic differences in the model/data residuals remain and are related, in part, to excessively deep model ventilation near Rockall and deficient ventilation in the main thermocline of the eastern subtropical gyre. Nevertheless, there do not appear to be gross errors in the basin-scale model circulation. Analysis of the CFC inventory using the constrained model suggests that the North Atlantic Ocean shallower than about 2000 m was near 20% saturated in the mid-1990s. Overall, this basin is a sink to 22% of the total atmosphere-to-ocean CFC-11 flux-twice the global average value. The average water mass formation rates over the CFC transient are 7.0 and 6.0 Sv (Sv = 10(6) m(3) s(-1)) for subtropical mode water and subpolar mode water, respectively.

The use of bootstrapped Malmquist indices to reassess productivity change findings: an application to a sample of Polish farms

This article assesses the extent to which sampling variation affects findings about Malmquist productivity change derived using data envelopment analysis (DEA), in the first stage by calculating productivity indices and in the second stage by investigating the farm-specific change in productivity. Confidence intervals for Malmquist indices are constructed using Simar and Wilson's (1999) bootstrapping procedure. The main contribution of this article is to account in the second stage for the information in the second stage provided by the first-stage bootstrap. The DEA SEs of the Malmquist indices given by bootstrapping are employed in an innovative heteroscedastic panel regression, using a maximum likelihood procedure. The application is to a sample of 250 Polish farms over the period 1996 to 2000. The confidence intervals' results suggest that the second half of 1990s for Polish farms was characterized not so much by productivity regress but rather by stagnation. As for the determinants of farm productivity change, we find that the integration of the DEA SEs in the second-stage regression is significant in explaining a proportion of the variance in the error term. Although our heteroscedastic regression results differ with those from the standard OLS, in terms of significance and sign, they are consistent with theory and previous research.

Informal finance and rural finance policy in India: historical and contemporary perspectives

From the 1950s up to the early 1990s the All-India data show an ever-declining share of informal credit in the total outstanding debt of rural households. Contemporaneous micro-level studies, using more qualitative research methodologies, provide evidence that questions the strength of this trend, and more recent All-India credit surveys show, first, a levelling, and then a rise, in the share of rural informal credit in 1990/91 and 2000/01, respectively. By reference to findings of a study of village moneylenders in Rajasthan, the paper notes lessons to be drawn. First, informal financial agents have not disappeared from the rural financial landscape in India. Second, formal-sector financial institutions can learn much about rural financial service needs from the financial products and processes of their informal counterparts. Third, a national survey of informal agents, similar to that of the 1921 Census survey of indigenous bankers and moneylenders, would provide valuable pointers towards policy options for the sector. A recent Reserve Bank of India Report on Moneylender Legislation not only explores incentive mechanisms to better ensure fair practice, but also proposes provision for a new category of loan providers that would explicitly link the rural informal and formal financial sectors.

Climate change and coastal waterbird populations – past declines and future impacts

Considerable attention has been given to the impact of climate change on avian populations over the last decade. In this paper we examine two issues with respect to coastal bird populations in the UK: (1) is there any evidence that current populations are declining due to climate change, and (2) how might we predict the response of populations in the future? We review the cause of population decline in two species associated with saltmarsh habitats. The abundance of Common Redshank Tringa totanus breeding on saltmarsh declined by about 23% between the mid-1980s and mid-1990s, but the decline appears to have been caused by an increase in grazing pressure. The number of Twite Carduelis flavirostris wintering on the coast of East Anglia has declined dramatically over recent decades; there is evidence linking this decline with habitat loss but a causal role for climate change is unclear. These examples illustrate that climate change could be having population-level impacts now, but also show that it is dangerous to become too narrowly focused on single issues affecting coastal birds. Making predictions about how populations might respond to future climate change depends on an adequate understanding of important ecological processes at an appropriate spatial scale. We illustrate this with recent work conducted on the Icelandic population of Black-tailed Godwits Limosa limosa islandica that shows large-scale regulatory processes. Most predictive models to date have focused on local populations (single estuary or a group of neighbouring estuaries). We discuss the role such models might play in risk assessment, and the need for them to be linked to larger-scale ecological processes. We argue that future work needs to focus on spatial scale issues and on linking physical models of coastal environments with important ecological processes.

Concentration in the ownership of plant variety rights: Some implications for developing countries

This paper explores concentration levels in the ownership of intellectual property rights over plant varieties worldwide. An analysis of data for 30 UPOV member-countries shows a high degree of concentration in the ownership of plant variety rights for six major crops at the national level in the developed world. Much of this concentration has arisen owing to the rapid consolidation of the seed industry through mergers and acquisitions, especially in the 1990s. A high degree of concentration in the ownership of plant variety rights, in combination with recent efforts to strengthen plant variety protection regimes, is likely to have significant effects on the prospects for future innovation in plant breeding and the distribution of market power between companies. For developing countries, concentration in intellectual property right ownership may have important implications for the structure of domestic seed industries and access to protected varieties and associated plant breeding technologies. These implications for developing countries are likely to become apparent in the context of the rapid spread of plant variety protection and access legislation, emerging changes in the international exchange regime for plant material and liberalised investment policies permitting foreign investment in the seeds sector.

Concentration in ownership of plant variety rights: some implications for developing countries

This paper explores concentration levels in the ownership of intellectual property rights over plant varieties worldwide. An analysis of data for 30 UPOV member-countries shows a high degree of concentration in the ownership of plant variety rights for six major crops at the national level in the developed world. Much of this concentration has arisen owing to the rapid consolidation of the seed industry through mergers and acquisitions, especially in the 1990s. A high degree of concentration in the ownership of plant variety rights, in combination with recent efforts to strengthen plant variety protection regimes, is likely to have significant effects on the prospects for future innovation in plant breeding and the distribution of market power between companies. For developing countries, concentration in intellectual property right ownership may have important implications for the structure of domestic seed industries and access to protected varieties and associated plant breeding technologies. These implications for developing countries are likely to become apparent in the context of the rapid spread of plant variety protection and access legislation, emerging changes in the international exchange regime for plant material and liberalised investment policies permitting foreign investment in the seeds sector. (C) 2003 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Potential WTO challenges to the CAP

Since the early 1990s the EU's CAP has undergone considerable change with, first, a switch from market price support to direct payments in 1992 and, second, a further decoupling of support with the creation of the single payment scheme in 2003. Nonetheless, whether the current Doha Round of WTO trade negotiations is successfully completed or not, the CAP will come under renewed scrutiny, as a result either of negotiated reductions in support or of litigation through the WTO's dispute settlement process. This article discusses CAP market price and income support in the context of these likely WTO constraints.

The double triangular test in practice

The double triangular test was introduced twenty years ago, and the purpose of this paper is to review applications that have been made since then. In fact, take-up of the method was rather slow until the late 1990s, but in recent years several clinical trial reports have been published describing its use in a wide range of therapeutic areas. The core of this paper is a detailed account of five trials that have been published since 2000 in which the method was applied to studies of pancreatic cancer, breast cancer, myocardial infarction, epilepsy and bedsores. Before those accounts are given, the method is described and the history behind its evolution is presented. The future potential of the method for sequential case-control and equivalence trials is also discussed. Copyright © 2004 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.

Patents and Haploid Plants

One of the important themes in any discussion concerning the application of haploids in agricultural biotechnology or elsewhere is the role of Intellectual Property Rights (IPR). This term covers both the content of patents and the confidential expertise, usually related to methodology and referred to as "Trade Secrets". This review will explain the concepts behind patent protection, and will use the international patent databases to analyse the content of these patents and trends over the last 20 years. This analysis from regions including North America, Europe, and Asia reveals a total of more than 30 granted patents and a larger number of applications. The first of these patents dates from 1986, and although the peak of activity was in the late 1990s, there has been continuous interest to the present day. The subject matter of these patents and applications covers methods for anther and pollen culture, ovule culture, the use of specific haploid-inducing genes, the use of haploids as transformation targets, and the exploitation of genes that regulate embryo development. The species mentioned include cereals, vegetables, flowers, spices and trees.

Stocking may increase mitochondrial DNA diversity but fails to halt the decline of endangered Atlantic salmon populations

Over the last 50 years, Spanish Atlantic salmon (Salmo salar) populations have been in decline. In order to bolster these populations, rivers were stocked with fish of northern European origin during the period 1974-1996, probably also introducing the furunculosis-inducing pathogen, Aeromonas salmonicida. Here we assess the relative importance of processes influencing mitochondrial (mt)DNA variability in these populations from 1948 to 2002. Genetic material collected over this period from four rivers in northern Spain (Cantabria) was used to detect variability at the mtDNA ND1 gene. Before stocking, a single haplotype was found at high frequency (0.980). Following stocking, haplotype diversity (h) increased in all rivers (mean h before stocking was 0.041, and 0.245 afterwards). These increases were due principally to the dramatic increase in frequency of a previously very low frequency haplotype, reported at higher frequencies in northern European populations proximate to those used to stock Cantabrian rivers. Genetic structuring increased after stocking: among-river differentiation was low before stocking (1950s/1960s Phi(ST) = -0.00296-0.00284), increasing considerably at the height of stocking (1980s Phi(ST) = 0.18932) and decreasing post-stocking (1990s/2002 Phi(ST) = 0.04934-0.03852). Gene flow from stocked fish therefore seems to have had a substantial role in increasing mtDNA variability. Additionally, we found significant differentiation between individuals that had probably died from infectious disease and apparently healthy, angled fish, suggesting a possible role for pathogen-driven selection of mtDNA variation. Our results suggest that stocking with non-native fish may increase genetic diversity in the short term, but may not reverse population declines.

The impact of sarcoptic mange Sarcoptes scabiei on the British fox Vulpes vulpes population

1. Disease epizootics can significantly influence host population dynamics and the structure and functioning of ecological communities. Sarcoptic mange Sarcoptes scabiei has dramatically reduced red fox populations Vulpes vulpes in several countries, including Britain, although impacts on demographic processes are poorly understood. We review the literature on the impact of mange on red fox populations, assess its current distribution in Britain through a questionnaire survey and present new data on resultant demographic changes in foxes in Bristol, UK. 2. A mange epizootic in Sweden spread across the entire country in < 10 years resulting in a decline in fox density of up to 95%; density remained lowered for 15–20 years. In Spain, mange has been enzootic for > 75 years and is widely distributed; mange presence was negatively correlated with habitat quality. 3. Localized outbreaks have occurred sporadically in Britain during the last 100 years. The most recent large-scale outbreak arose in the 1990s, although mange has been present in south London and surrounding environs since the 1940s. The questionnaire survey indicated that mange was broadly distributed across Britain, but areas of perceived high prevalence (> 50% affected) were mainly in central and southern England. Habitat type did not significantly affect the presence/absence of mange or perceived prevalence rates. Subjective assessments suggested that populations take 15–20 years to recover. 4. Mange appeared in Bristol's foxes in 1994. During the epizootic phase (1994–95), mange spread through the city at a rate of 0.6–0.9 km/month, with a rise in infection in domestic dogs Canis familiaris c. 1–2 months later. Juvenile and adult fox mortality increased and the proportion of females that reproduced declined but litter size was unaffected. Population density declined by > 95%. 5. In the enzootic phase (1996–present), mange was the most significant mortality factor. Juvenile mortality was significantly higher than in the pre-mange period, and the number of juveniles classified as dispersers declined. Mange infection reduced the reproductive potential of males and females: females with advanced mange did not breed; severely infected males failed to undergo spermatogenesis. In 2004, Bristol fox population density was only 15% of that in 1994.