926 resultados para wind power forecast error


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PURPOSE: To evaluate theoretically three previously published formulae that use intra-operative aphakic refractive error to calculate intraocular lens (IOL) power, not necessitating pre-operative biometry. The formulae are as follows: IOL power (D) = Aphakic refraction x 2.01 [Ianchulev et al., J. Cataract Refract. Surg.31 (2005) 1530]; IOL power (D) = Aphakic refraction x 1.75 [Mackool et al., J. Cataract Refract. Surg.32 (2006) 435]; IOL power (D) = 0.07x(2) + 1.27x + 1.22, where x = aphakic refraction [Leccisotti, Graefes Arch. Clin. Exp. Ophthalmol.246 (2008) 729]. METHODS: Gaussian first order calculations were used to determine the relationship between intra-operative aphakic refractive error and the IOL power required for emmetropia in a series of schematic eyes incorporating varying corneal powers, pre-operative crystalline lens powers, axial lengths and post-operative IOL positions. The three previously published formulae, based on empirical data, were then compared in terms of IOL power errors that arose in the same schematic eye variants. RESULTS: An inverse relationship exists between theoretical ratio and axial length. Corneal power and initial lens power have little effect on calculated ratios, whilst final IOL position has a significant impact. None of the three empirically derived formulae are universally accurate but each is able to predict IOL power precisely in certain theoretical scenarios. The formulae derived by Ianchulev et al. and Leccisotti are most accurate for posterior IOL positions, whereas the Mackool et al. formula is most reliable when the IOL is located more anteriorly. CONCLUSION: Final IOL position was found to be the chief determinant of IOL power errors. Although the A-constants of IOLs are known and may be accurate, a variety of factors can still influence the final IOL position and lead to undesirable refractive errors. Optimum results using these novel formulae would be achieved in myopic eyes.

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We assess the feasibility of hybrid solar-biomass power plants for use in India in various applications including tri-generation, electricity generation and process heat. To cover this breadth of scenarios we analyse, with the help of simulation models, case studies with peak thermal capacities ranging from 2 to 10 MW. Evaluations are made against technical, financial and environmental criteria. Suitable solar multiples, based on the trade-offs among the various criteria, range from 1 to 2.5. Compared to conventional energy sources, levelised energy costs are high - but competitive in comparison to other renewables such as photovoltaic and wind. Long payback periods for hybrid plants mean that they cannot compete directly with biomass-only systems. However, a 1.2-3.2 times increase in feedstock price will result in hybrid systems becoming cost competitive. Furthermore, in comparison to biomass-only, hybrid operation saves up to 29% biomass and land with an 8.3-24.8 $/GJ/a and 1.8-5.2 ¢/kWh increase in cost per exergy loss and levelised energy cost. Hybrid plants will become an increasingly attractive option as the cost of solar thermal falls and feedstock, fossil fuel and land prices continue to rise. In the foreseeable future, solar will continue to rely on subsidies and it is recommended to subsidise preferentially tri-generation plants. © 2012 Elsevier Ltd.

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The multiterminal dc wind farm is a promising topology with a voltage-source inverter (VSI) connection at the onshore grid. Voltage-source converters (VSCs) are robust to ac-side fault conditions. However, they are vulnerable to dc faults on the dc side of the converter. This paper analyzes dc faults, their transients, and the resulting protection issues. Overcurrent faults are analyzed in detail and provide an insight into protection system design. The radial wind farm topology with star or string connection is considered. The outcomes may be applicable for VSCs in the multi-VSC dc wind farm collection grid and VSC-based high-voltage direct current (HVDC) offshore transmission systems.

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We report the impact of longitudinal signal power profile on the transmission performance of coherently-detected 112 Gb/s m-ary polarization multiplexed quadrature amplitude modulation system after compensation of deterministic nonlinear fibre impairments. Performance improvements up to 0.6 dB (Q(eff)) are reported for a non-uniform transmission link power profile. Further investigation reveals that the evolution of the transmission performance with power profile management is fully consistent with the parametric amplification of the amplified spontaneous emission by the signal through four-wave mixing. In particular, for a non-dispersion managed system, a single-step increment of 4 dB in the amplifier gain, with respect to a uniform gain profile, at similar to 2/3(rd) of the total reach considerably improves the transmission performance for all the formats studied. In contrary a negative-step profile, emulating a failure (gain decrease or loss increase), significantly degrades the bit-error rate.

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Erbium-doped fibre amplifiers (EDFA’s) are a key technology for the design of all optical communication systems and networks. The superiority of EDFAs lies in their negligible intermodulation distortion across high speed multichannel signals, low intrinsic losses, slow gain dynamics, and gain in a wide range of optical wavelengths. Due to long lifetime in excited states, EDFAs do not oppose the effect of cross-gain saturation. The time characteristics of the gain saturation and recovery effects are between a few hundred microseconds and 10 milliseconds. However, in wavelength division multiplexed (WDM) optical networks with EDFAs, the number of channels traversing an EDFA can change due to the faulty link of the network or the system reconfiguration. It has been found that, due to the variation in channel number in the EDFAs chain, the output system powers of surviving channels can change in a very short time. Thus, the power transient is one of the problems deteriorating system performance. In this thesis, the transient phenomenon in wavelength routed WDM optical networks with EDFA chains was investigated. The task was performed using different input signal powers for circuit switched networks. A simulator for the EDFA gain dynamicmodel was developed to compute the magnitude and speed of the power transients in the non-self-saturated EDFA both single and chained. The dynamic model of the self-saturated EDFAs chain and its simulator were also developed to compute the magnitude and speed of the power transients and the Optical signal-to-noise ratio (OSNR). We found that the OSNR transient magnitude and speed are a function of both the output power transient and the number of EDFAs in the chain. The OSNR value predicts the level of the quality of service in the related network. It was found that the power transients for both self-saturated and non-self-saturated EDFAs are close in magnitude in the case of gain saturated EDFAs networks. Moreover, the cross-gain saturation also degrades the performance of the packet switching networks due to varying traffic characteristics. The magnitude and the speed of output power transients increase along the EDFAs chain. An investigation was done on the asynchronous transfer mode (ATM) or the WDM Internet protocol (WDM-IP) traffic networks using different traffic patterns based on the Pareto and Poisson distribution. The simulator is used to examine the amount and speed of the power transients in Pareto and Poisson distributed traffic at different bit rates, with specific focus on 2.5 Gb/s. It was found from numerical and statistical analysis that the power swing increases if the time interval of theburst-ON/burst-OFF is long in the packet bursts. This is because the gain dynamics is fast during strong signal pulse or with long duration pulses, which is due to the stimulatedemission avalanche depletion of the excited ions. Thus, an increase in output power levelcould lead to error burst which affects the system performance.

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We report the impact of longitudinal signal power profile on the transmission performance of coherently-detected 112 Gb/s m-ary polarization multiplexed quadrature amplitude modulation system after compensation of deterministic nonlinear fibre impairments. Performance improvements up to 0.6 dB (Q(eff)) are reported for a non-uniform transmission link power profile. Further investigation reveals that the evolution of the transmission performance with power profile management is fully consistent with the parametric amplification of the amplified spontaneous emission by the signal through four-wave mixing. In particular, for a non-dispersion managed system, a single-step increment of 4 dB in the amplifier gain, with respect to a uniform gain profile, at similar to 2/3(rd) of the total reach considerably improves the transmission performance for all the formats studied. In contrary a negative-step profile, emulating a failure (gain decrease or loss increase), significantly degrades the bit-error rate.

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This paper presents a surrogate-model-based optimization of a doubly-fed induction generator (DFIG) machine winding design for maximizing power yield. Based on site-specific wind profile data and the machine's previous operational performance, the DFIG's stator and rotor windings are optimized to match the maximum efficiency with operating conditions for rewinding purposes. The particle swarm optimization-based surrogate optimization techniques are used in conjunction with the finite element method to optimize the machine design utilizing the limited available information for the site-specific wind profile and generator operating conditions. A response surface method in the surrogate model is developed to formulate the design objectives and constraints. Besides, the machine tests and efficiency calculations follow IEEE standard 112-B. Numerical and experimental results validate the effectiveness of the proposed technologies.

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Summary: Renewable energy is one of the main pillars of sustainable development, especially in developing economies. Increasing energy demand and the limitation of fossil fuel reserves make the use of renewable energy essential for sustainable development. Wind energy is considered to be one of the most important resources of renewable energy. In North African countries, such as Egypt, wind energy has an enormous potential; however, it faces quite a number of technical challenges related to the performance of wind turbines in the Saharan environment. Seasonal sand storms affect the performance of wind turbines in many ways, one of which is increasing the wind turbine aerodynamic resistance through the increase of blade surface roughness. The power loss because of blade surface deterioration is significant in wind turbines. The surface roughness of wind turbine blades deteriorates because of several environmental conditions such as ice or sand. This paper is the first review on the topic of surface roughness effects on the performance of horizontal-axis wind turbines. The review covers the numerical simulation and experimental studies as well as discussing the present research trends to develop a roadmap for better understanding and improvement of wind turbine performance in deleterious environments.

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A tanulmány arra keresi a választ, hogy a megújuló alapú áramtermelők támogatása csökkentőleg hathat- e a villamos energia nagykereskedelmi és kiskereskedelmi árára. Ez utóbbi tartalmazza a megújulók támogatásának összegét is. Számos elméleti cikk rámutatott arra, hogy nemcsak a nagykereskedelmi árak, hanem a kiskereskedelmi villamosenergia-árak is csökkenhetnek a drágább, megújuló alapú áramtermelők támogatása révén. A tanulmány során egy villamosenergia-piacokat szimuláló modell segítségével modellezi a szerző, hogy a különböző mennyiségű szélerőművi és fotovoltaikus kapacitás támogatása hogyan hat a magyarországi nagykereskedelmi és kiskereskedelmi árakra. _____ Impact of the Hungarian renewable based power generation on electricity price The aim of this paper is to answer the question whether the support of renewable power generation could decrease the wholesale and retail electricity prices. The latter one includes the support of renewables. Several studies point out that not only the wholesale, but the retail electricity prices could decrease when supporting the more expensive, renewable power generation. A model, which simulates the electricity markets, is used in order to analyse the impact of different level of wind and photo voltaic power generator support fee on Hungarian wholesale and retail electricity prices.

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Orthogonal Frequency-Division Multiplexing (OFDM) has been proved to be a promising technology that enables the transmission of higher data rate. Multicarrier Code-Division Multiple Access (MC-CDMA) is a transmission technique which combines the advantages of both OFDM and Code-Division Multiplexing Access (CDMA), so as to allow high transmission rates over severe time-dispersive multi-path channels without the need of a complex receiver implementation. Also MC-CDMA exploits frequency diversity via the different subcarriers, and therefore allows the high code rates systems to achieve good Bit Error Rate (BER) performances. Furthermore, the spreading in the frequency domain makes the time synchronization requirement much lower than traditional direct sequence CDMA schemes. There are still some problems when we use MC-CDMA. One is the high Peak-to-Average Power Ratio (PAPR) of the transmit signal. High PAPR leads to nonlinear distortion of the amplifier and results in inter-carrier self-interference plus out-of-band radiation. On the other hand, suppressing the Multiple Access Interference (MAI) is another crucial problem in the MC-CDMA system. Imperfect cross-correlation characteristics of the spreading codes and the multipath fading destroy the orthogonality among the users, and then cause MAI, which produces serious BER degradation in the system. Moreover, in uplink system the received signals at a base station are always asynchronous. This also destroys the orthogonality among the users, and hence, generates MAI which degrades the system performance. Besides those two problems, the interference should always be considered seriously for any communication system. In this dissertation, we design a novel MC-CDMA system, which has low PAPR and mitigated MAI. The new Semi-blind channel estimation and multi-user data detection based on Parallel Interference Cancellation (PIC) have been applied in the system. The Low Density Parity Codes (LDPC) has also been introduced into the system to improve the performance. Different interference models are analyzed in multi-carrier communication systems and then the effective interference suppression for MC-CDMA systems is employed in this dissertation. The experimental results indicate that our system not only significantly reduces the PAPR and MAI but also effectively suppresses the outside interference with low complexity. Finally, we present a practical cognitive application of the proposed system over the software defined radio platform.

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Orthogonal Frequency-Division Multiplexing (OFDM) has been proved to be a promising technology that enables the transmission of higher data rate. Multicarrier Code-Division Multiple Access (MC-CDMA) is a transmission technique which combines the advantages of both OFDM and Code-Division Multiplexing Access (CDMA), so as to allow high transmission rates over severe time-dispersive multi-path channels without the need of a complex receiver implementation. Also MC-CDMA exploits frequency diversity via the different subcarriers, and therefore allows the high code rates systems to achieve good Bit Error Rate (BER) performances. Furthermore, the spreading in the frequency domain makes the time synchronization requirement much lower than traditional direct sequence CDMA schemes. There are still some problems when we use MC-CDMA. One is the high Peak-to-Average Power Ratio (PAPR) of the transmit signal. High PAPR leads to nonlinear distortion of the amplifier and results in inter-carrier self-interference plus out-of-band radiation. On the other hand, suppressing the Multiple Access Interference (MAI) is another crucial problem in the MC-CDMA system. Imperfect cross-correlation characteristics of the spreading codes and the multipath fading destroy the orthogonality among the users, and then cause MAI, which produces serious BER degradation in the system. Moreover, in uplink system the received signals at a base station are always asynchronous. This also destroys the orthogonality among the users, and hence, generates MAI which degrades the system performance. Besides those two problems, the interference should always be considered seriously for any communication system. In this dissertation, we design a novel MC-CDMA system, which has low PAPR and mitigated MAI. The new Semi-blind channel estimation and multi-user data detection based on Parallel Interference Cancellation (PIC) have been applied in the system. The Low Density Parity Codes (LDPC) has also been introduced into the system to improve the performance. Different interference models are analyzed in multi-carrier communication systems and then the effective interference suppression for MC-CDMA systems is employed in this dissertation. The experimental results indicate that our system not only significantly reduces the PAPR and MAI but also effectively suppresses the outside interference with low complexity. Finally, we present a practical cognitive application of the proposed system over the software defined radio platform.

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Distributed Generation (DG) from alternate sources and smart grid technologies represent good solutions for the increase in energy demands. Employment of these DG assets requires solutions for the new technical challenges that are accompanied by the integration and interconnection into operational power systems. A DG infrastructure comprised of alternate energy sources in addition to conventional sources, is developed as a test bed. The test bed is operated by synchronizing, wind, photovoltaic, fuel cell, micro generator and energy storage assets, in addition to standard AC generators. Connectivity of these DG assets is tested for viability and for their operational characteristics. The control and communication layers for dynamic operations are developed to improve the connectivity of alternates to the power system. A real time application for the operation of alternate sources in microgrids is developed. Multi agent approach is utilized to improve stability and sequences of actions for black start are implemented. Experiments for control and stability issues related to dynamic operation under load conditions have been conducted and verified.

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In this paper I pose the Questions: Is it feasible to install a large wind turbine(S) at Grenfell College as a pilot project, and what will the benefits of the installation be to Grenfell if the project goes ahead? My answers are based on a literature review, data analysis from previous experiments, and a SWOT analysis. I will conclude by recommending a course of action for Grenfell that will move it toward using more renewable energy, and becoming a local resource for alternative energy solutions.

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Wind- induced exposure is one of the major forces shaping the geomorphology and biota in coastal areas. The effect of wave exposure on littoral biota is well known in marine environments (Ekebon et al., 2003; Burrows et al., 2008). In the Cabrera Archipelago National Park wave exposure has demostrated to have an effect on the spatial distribution of different stages of E.marginatus (Alvarez et al., 2010). Standarized average wave exposures during 2008 along the Cabrera Archipelago National park coast line were calculated to be applied in studies of littoral species distribution within the archipelago. Average wave exposure (or apparent wave power) was calculated for points located 50 m equidistant on the coastline following the EXA methodology (EXposure estimates for fragmented Archipelagos) (Ekebon et al., 2003). The average wave exposures were standardized from 1 to 100 (minimum and maximum in the area), showing coastal areas with different levels of mea wave exposure during the year. Input wind data (direction and intensity) from 2008 was registered at the Cabrera mooring located north of Cabrera Archipelago. Data were provided by IMEDEA (CSIC-UIB, TMMOS http://www.imedea.uib-csic.es/tmoos/boyas/). This cartography has been developed under the framework of the project EPIMHAR, funded by the National Park's Network (Spanish Ministry of Environment, Maritime and Rural Affairs, reference: 012/2007 ). Part of this work has been developed under the research programs funded by "Fons de Garantia Agrària i Pesquera de les Illes Balears (FOGAIBA)".

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This paper presents an experimental study of the sensitivity to 15-MeV neutrons of Advanced Low Power SRAMs (A-LPSRAM) at low bias voltage little above the threshold value that allows the retention of data. This family of memories is characterized by a 3D structure to minimize the area penalty and to cope with latchups, as well as by the presence of integrated capacitors to hinder the occurrence of single event upsets. In low voltage static tests, classical single event upsets were a minor source of errors, but other unexpected phenomena such as clusters of bitflips and hard errors turned out to be the origin of hundreds of bitflips. Besides, errors were not observed in dynamic tests at nominal voltage. This behavior is clearly different than that of standard bulk CMOS SRAMs, where thousands of errors have been reported.