Modelling the system behaviour of wet snow avalanches using an expert system approach for risk management on high alpine traffic roads

The presented approach describes a model for a rule-based expert system calculating the temporal variability of the release of wet snow avalanches, using the assumption of avalanche triggering without the loading of new snow. The knowledge base of the model is created by using investigations on the system behaviour of wet snow avalanches in the Italian Ortles Alps, and is represented by a fuzzy logic rule-base. Input parameters of the expert system are numerical and linguistic variables, measurable meteorological and topographical factors and observable characteristics of the snow cover. Output of the inference method is the quantified release disposition for wet snow avalanches. Combining topographical parameters and the spatial interpolation of the calculated release disposition a hazard index map is dynamically generated. Furthermore, the spatial and temporal variability of damage potential on roads exposed to wet snow avalanches can be quantified, expressed by the number of persons at risk. The application of the rule base to the available data in the study area generated plausible results. The study demonstrates the potential for the application of expert systems and fuzzy logic in the field of natural hazard monitoring and risk management.

Wet deposition of fossil and non-fossil derived particulate carbon: insights from radiocarbon measurement

Radiocarbon (14C) measurements of both organic carbon (OC) and elemental carbon (EC) allow a more detailed source apportionment, leading to a full and unambiguous distinction and quantification of the contributions from non-fossil and fossil sources. A thermal-optical method with a commercial OC/EC analyzer to isolate water-insoluble OC (WIOC) and EC for their subsequent 14C measurement was applied for the first time to filtered precipitation samples collected at a costal site in Portugal and at a continental site in Switzerland. Our results show that WIOC in precipitation is dominated by non-fossil sources such as biogenic and biomass-burning emissions regardless of rain origins and seasons, whereas EC sources are shared by fossil-fuel combustion and biomass burning. In addition, monthly variation of WIOC in Switzerland was characterized by higher abundance in warm than in cold seasons, highlighting the importance of biogenic emissions to particulate carbon in rainwater. Samples with high particulate carbon concentrations in Portugal were found to be associated with increased biogenic input. Despite the importance of non-fossil sources, fossil emissions account for approximately 20% of particulate carbon in wet deposition for our study, which is in line with fossil contribution in bulk rainwater dissolved organic carbon as well as aerosol WIOC and EC estimated by the 14C approach from other studies.

Flood triggering in Switzerland: the role of daily to monthly preceding precipitation

Determining the role of different precipitation periods for peak discharge generation is crucial for both projecting future changes in flood probability and for short- and medium-range flood forecasting. In this study, catchment-averaged daily precipitation time series are analyzed prior to annual peak discharge events (floods) in Switzerland. The high number of floods considered – more than 4000 events from 101 catchments have been analyzed – allows to derive significant information about the role of antecedent precipitation for peak discharge generation. Based on the analysis of precipitation times series, a new separation of flood-related precipitation periods is proposed: (i) the period 0 to 1 day before flood days, when the maximum flood-triggering precipitation rates are generally observed, (ii) the period 2 to 3 days before flood days, when longer-lasting synoptic situations generate "significantly higher than normal" precipitation amounts, and (iii) the period from 4 days to 1 month before flood days when previous wet episodes may have already preconditioned the catchment. The novelty of this study lies in the separation of antecedent precipitation into the precursor antecedent precipitation (4 days before floods or earlier, called PRE-AP) and the short range precipitation (0 to 3 days before floods, a period when precipitation is often driven by one persistent weather situation like e.g., a stationary low-pressure system). A precise separation of "antecedent" and "peak-triggering" precipitation is not attempted. Instead, the strict definition of antecedent precipitation periods permits a direct comparison of all catchments. The precipitation accumulating 0 to 3 days before an event is the most relevant for floods in Switzerland. PRE-AP precipitation has only a weak and region-specific influence on flood probability. Floods were significantly more frequent after wet PRE-AP periods only in the Jura Mountains, in the western and eastern Swiss plateau, and at the outlet of large lakes. As a general rule, wet PRE-AP periods enhance the flood probability in catchments with gentle topography, high infiltration rates, and large storage capacity (karstic cavities, deep soils, large reservoirs). In contrast, floods were significantly less frequent after wet PRE-AP periods in glacial catchments because of reduced melt. For the majority of catchments however, no significant correlation between precipitation amounts and flood occurrences is found when the last 3 days before floods are omitted in the precipitation amounts. Moreover, the PRE-AP was not higher for extreme floods than for annual floods with a high frequency and was very close to climatology for all floods. The fact that floods are not significantly more frequent nor more intense after wet PRE-AP is a clear indicator of a short discharge memory of Pre-Alpine, Alpine and South Alpine Swiss catchments. Our study poses the question whether the impact of long-term precursory precipitation for floods in such catchments is not overestimated in the general perception. The results suggest that the consideration of a 3–4 days precipitation period should be sufficient to represent (understand, reconstruct, model, project) Swiss Alpine floods.

Wet and dry deposition of 129I in Seville (Spain) measured by accelerator mass spectrometry

Iodine-129 (Full-size image (<1 K)) concentrations have been determined by accelerator mass spectrometry in rainwater samples taken at Seville (southwestern Spain) in 1996 and 1997. This technique allows a reduction in the detection limits for this radionuclide in comparison to radiometric counting and other mass spectrometric methods such as ICP-MS. Typical 129I concentrations range from 4.7×107129I atoms/l (19.2%) to 4.97×109129I atoms/l (5.9%), while 129I depositions are normally in the order of 108–1010 atoms/m2 d. These values agree well with other results obtained for recent rainwater samples collected in Europe. Apart from these, the relationship between 129I deposition and some atmospheric factors has been analyzed, showing the importance of the precipitation rate and the concentration of suspended matter in it.

Alternative nighttime nutrition regimens in glycogen storage disease type I: a controlled crossover study

BACKGROUND Traditional approaches for nighttime glycemic control in glycogen storage disease type I (GSDI) include continuous tube feeding, or ingestion of uncooked corn starch (CS) at bedtime. A modified corn starch (MCS) has been shown to prolong euglycemia in some patients. The aim of this study was to evaluate whether stable nighttime glucose control can be achieved with other types of slowly digested carbohydrates in adult GSDI patients. METHODS In this cross-over study, nocturnal glucose control and fasting times were assessed with three different nocturnal nutrition regimens in five patients, using continuous glucose monitoring (CGMS) in an outpatient everyday life setting. For each patient, continuous glucose profiles were measured after ingestion of (1) CS, (2) MCS or (3) a pasta meal at bedtime, during 5 to 6 consecutive nights for each regimen. RESULTS Stable nocturnal glucose control was achieved for all patients with a pasta meal, with a mean duration of glycemia >3.5 mmol/l of 7.6 h (range 5.7-10.8), and >4 mmol/l of 7 h (5.2-9.2), similar to CS and MCS. Fasting glucose before breakfast on workdays (after 7.1 ± 0.8 h) was not significantly different between the three interventions (CS 4.1 ± 0.5 mmol/l, MCS 4.6 ± 0.7 mmol/l, pasta 4.3 ± 0.9 mmol/l). During prolonged fasting on weekends, longer duration of normoglycemia was achieved with CS or MCS than with pasta. CONCLUSION Consumption of cooked pasta is a suitable and more palatable alternative to uncooked corn starch to achieve nighttime glucose control in adult patients with GSDI.

The Early Spörer Minimum – A Period of Extraordinary Climate and Socio-economic Changes in Western and Central Europe

Throughout the last millennium, mankind was affected by prolonged deviations from the climate mean state. While periods like the Maunder Minimum in the 17th century have been assessed in greater detail, earlier cold periods such as the 15th century received much less attention due to the sparse information available. Based on new evidence from different sources ranging from proxy archives to model simulations, it is now possible to provide an end-to-end assessment about the climate state during an exceptionally cold period in the 15th century, the role of internal, unforced climate variability and external forcing in shaping these extreme climatic conditions, and the impacts on and responses of the medieval society in Central Europe. Climate reconstructions from a multitude of natural and human archives indicate that, during winter, the period of the early Spörer Minimum (1431–1440 CE) was the coldest decade in Central Europe in the 15th century. The particularly cold winters and normal but wet summers resulted in a strong seasonal cycle that challenged food production and led to increasing food prices, a subsistence crisis, and a famine in parts of Europe. As a consequence, authorities implemented adaptation measures, such as the installation of grain storage capacities, in order to be prepared for future events. The 15th century is characterised by a grand solar minimum and enhanced volcanic activity, which both imply a reduction of seasonality. Climate model simulations show that periods with cold winters and strong seasonality are associated with internal climate variability rather than external forcing. Accordingly, it is hypothesised that the reconstructed extreme climatic conditions during this decade occurred by chance and in relation to the partly chaotic, internal variability within the climate system.

Feeding practices and their associations with diarrhea incidence in a cohort of rural Egyptian infants

A study was conducted in 4 villages in Bilbeis, Egypt, to document the infant feeding practices and identify their determinants, and examine the associations between feeding practices and diarrhea incidence in infants. A cohort of 152 infants were followed from birth with twice-weekly home visits to record feeding practices and diarrheal illness. Cross-sectional information was obtained about child birth; early neonatal feeding practices; and the socioeconomic, demographic, and water and sanitation characteristics of study families.^ Prelacteal fees were given to 60% of the infants. Nineteen percent of the infants were wet nursed at least once during the first week of life. Breast-feeding prevalence declined from 100% among infants aged less than 12 weeks to 84% among those aged 44-47 weeks. The prevalence of exclusive breast-feeding among breast-fed infants was 38% in those aged less than 4 weeks, increased to 54% in age period 4-7 weeks, and then declined rapidly to 4% in age period 24-27 weeks. The patterns and determinants of consumption by breast-fed infants of specific supplements were examined in detail.^ Between birth and age 47 weeks, the diarrhea incidence rate per person-year among breast-fed infants (6.84 episodes) was identical to the rate among all infants (6.89 episodes). In age period 0-11 weeks, the diarrhea incidence rate among breast-fed infants receiving supplements was 1.3 times (95% confidence interval: 0.9-2.0) higher than the rate among those exclusively breast-fed. In other age periods, diarrhea incidence was generally nonsignificantly higher among exclusively breast-fed infants than among those partially breast-fed and those completely weaned.^ Both univariate and multivariate analyses were done to examine the associations between diarrhea incidence and the consumption by breast-fed infants of specific supplements. After multivariate adjustment, supplements that showed significant, borderline, or suggestive positive associations with diarrhea incidence were cereal-water, cheese, raw vegetables, and 'other' foods. Significant, borderline, or suggestive negative associations were observed between diarrhea incidence and the intake of fresh animal milk, and potatoes.^ To reduce the risk of diarrhea, indiscriminate use of supplements among Bilbeis infants aged less than 12 weeks should be strongly discouraged. While mothers in this area should be educated about methods of safer preparation, handling, storage, and administration of all weaning foods, their attention should be particularly drawn to the 4 foods that were found to be positively associated with diarrhea incidence among infants in this study. ^

Chemical characterization and quantification of the brown algal storage compound laminarin

In search of a meaningful stress indicator for Fucus vesiculosus we found that the often used quantitative determination procedures for the polysaccharide laminarin (beta-1,3-glucan) result in different kind of problems, uncertainties and limitations. This chemical long-term storage form of carbon enables perennial brown algae in seasonally fluctuating ecosystems to uncouple growth from photosynthesis. Because of this high ecological relevance a reliable and precise method for determination and quantification of laminarin is needed. Therefore, a simple, cold water extraction method coupled to a new quantitative liquid chromatography-mass spectrometrical method (LC-MS) was developed. Laminarin was determined in nine out of twelve brown algal species, and its expected typical molar mass distribution of 2000-7000 Da was confirmed. Furthermore, laminarin consisted of a complex mixture of different chemical forms, since fifteen chemical laminarin species with distinct molecular weights were measured in nine species of brown algae. Laminarin concentrations in the algal tissues ranged from 0.03 to 0.86% dry weight (DW). The direct chemical characterization and quantification of laminarin by LC-MS represents a powerful method to verify the biochemical and ecological importance of laminarin for brown algae. Single individuals of Laminaria hyperborea, L. digitata, Saccharina latissima, F. serratus, F. vesiculosus, F. spiralis, Himanthalia elongata, Cystoseira tamariscifolia, Pelvetia canaliculata, Ascophyllum nodosum, Halidrys siliquosa and Dictyota dichotoma were collected in fall (18.11.2013) during spring low tide from the shore of Finavarra, Co. Clare, west coast of Ireland (53° 09' 25'' N, 09° 06' 58'' W). After sampling, the different algae were immediately transported to the lab, lyophilized and sent to the University of Rostock. Laminarin was extracted with cold ultrapure water from the algal samples. Before extraction they were ground to < 1 mm grain size with an analytical mill (Ika MF 10 Basic). The algal material (approx. 1.5 g DW) was extracted in ultrapure water (8 mL) on a shaker (250 rpm) for 5 h. After the addition of surplus ultrapure water (4 mL) and shaking manually, 1 mL of the sample was filter centrifuged (45 µm) at 14,000 rpm (Hettich Mikro 22 R). The slightly viscous supernatant was free of suspended material and converted into a microvial (300 µL) for further analysis. The extracts were analyzed using liquid chromatography-mass spectrometry (LC-MS) analysis (LTQ Velos Pro ion trap spectrometer with Accela HPLC, Thermo Scientific). Laminarin species were separated on a KinetexTM column (2.6 µm C18, 150 x 3 mm). The mobile phase was 90 % ultrapure water and 10 % acetonitrile, run isocratically at a flow rate of 0.2 mL min-1. MS was working in ESI negative ion mode in a mass range of 100 - 4000 amu. Glucose contents were determined after extraction using high-performance liquid chromatography (HPLC). Extracted samples were analyzed in an HPLC (SmartLine, Knauer GmbH) equipped with a SUPELCOGELTM Ca column (30 x 7,8 mm without preColumn) and RI-detector (S2300 PDA S2800). Water was used as eluent at a flow rate of 0.8 mL min-1 at 75 °C. Glucose was quantified by comparison of the retention time and peak area with standard solutions using ChromGate software. Mannitol was extracted from three subsamples of 10-20 mg powdered alga material (L. hyperborea, L. digitata, S. latissima, F. serratus, F. vesiculosus, F. spiralis, H. elongata, P. canaliculata, A. nodosum, H. siliquosa) and quantified, following the HPLC method described by Karsten et al. (1991). For analyzing carbon and nitrogen contents, dried algal material was ground to powder and three subsamples of 2 mg from each alga thalli were loaded and packed into tin cartridges (6×6×12 mm). The packages were combusted at 950 °C and the absolute contents of C and N were automatically quantified in an elemental analyzer (Elementar Vario EL III, Germany) using acetanilide as standard according to Verardo et al. (1990).