First impressions matter: Signalling as a source of policy dynamics

We first establish that policymakers on the Bank of England's Monetary PolicyCommittee choose lower interest rates with experience. We then reject increasingconfidence in private information or learning about the structure of the macroeconomy as explanations for this shift. Instead, a model in which voters signal theirhawkishness to observers better fits the data. The motivation for signalling is consistent with wanting to control inflation expectations, but not career concerns orpleasing colleagues. There is also no evidence of capture by industry. The papersuggests that policy-motivated reputation building may be important for explainingdynamics in experts' policy choices.

Discrete devaluations and multiple equilibria in a first generation model of currency crises

The first generation models of currency crises have often been criticized because they predict that, in the absence of very large triggering shocks, currency attacks should be predictable and lead to small devaluations. This paper shows that these features of first generation models are not robust to the inclusion of private information. In particular, this paper analyzes a generalization of the Krugman-Flood-Garber (KFG) model, which relaxes the assumption that all consumers are perfectly informed about the level of fundamentals. In this environment, the KFG equilibrium of zero devaluation is only one of many possible equilibria. In all the other equilibria, the lack of perfect information delays the attack on the currency past the point at which the shadow exchange rate equals the peg, giving rise to unpredictable and discrete devaluations.

Abcès du sein: privilégier la ponction-aspiration échoguidée [Ultrasonography-guided drainage should be considered as the first-line approach for breast abscesses treatment].

The abscesses of the breast are puerperal or non puerperal. The Staphylococcus aureus is the most common germ. The diagnosis is based on clinical criterias and confirmed by the ultrasonography. The percutaneous ultrasonography-guided drainage must be proposed in first intent to treat. Surgical treatment is still valid with a relapsing or chronic abscess, or after the non operative processes have failed.

First records of Collembola (Ellipura) from the State of Paraíba, Northeastern Brazil

This paper presents the first records of the Collembola fauna in four localities of State of Paraíba, Northeastern Brazil. These records represent the first list of species of Collembola for the State of Paraíba. The research adds new records for Brazil of six genera and one species. Furthermore, thirteen undescribed species are presented.

Improving Transition Outcomes: Prototype First Year Highlights

Highlights from the community demonstration prototypes first year.

Sclérose en plaques: au-delà des traitements de première ligne [Multiple sclerosis: beyong first line therapies].

We are currently experiencing a key period in the management of patients with relapsing remitting multiple sclerosis. The application of new criteria allows early diagnosis, thus at a stage when the available immune treatments are the most likely to show a good efficacy. The therapeutic offer is expanding but its complexity too. It is thus important, for a given patient, to assess as precisely as possible the degree of severity of his/her disease, in order to give the drug with the optimal risk/benefit ratio.

High prevalence of major cardiovascular risk factors in first-degree relatives of individuals with familial premature coronary artery disease--the GENECARD project.

BACKGROUND: Hypertension, hypercholesterolemia, obesity and smoking are highly prevalent among patients with familial premature coronary artery disease (FP-CAD). Whether these risk factors equally affect other family members remains unknown. METHODS: We examined 222 FP-CAD patients, 158 unaffected sibs, 197 offspring and 94 spouses in 108 FP-CAD families (> or = 2 sibs having survived CAD diagnosed before age 51 (M)/56 (F)), and compared them to population controls. RESULTS: Unaffected sibs had a higher prevalence of hypertension (49% versus 24%, p<0.001), hypercholesterolemia (47% versus 34%, p=0.002), abdominal obesity (35% versus 24%, p=0.006) and smoking (39% versus 24%, p=0.001) than population controls. Offspring had a higher prevalence of hypertension (females), hypercholesterolemia and abdominal obesity than population controls. No difference was observed between spouses and controls. Compared to unaffected sibs, FP-CAD affected sibs had a similar risk factor profile, except for smoking, which was more prevalent (76% versus 39%, p=0.008). CONCLUSIONS: Hypertension, obesity and hypercholesterolemia are highly prevalent among first-degree relatives, but not spouses, of patients with FP-CAD. These persons deserve special medical attention due to their familial/genetic susceptibility to atherogenic metabolic abnormalities. In these families, smoking may be the trigger for FP-CAD.

Improving social measurements: The experience of the ESS first rounds in Spain

With the two aims of monitoring social change and improving social measurement, the European Social Survey is now closing its third round. This paper shows how the accumulated experience of the two first rounds has been used to validate the questionnaire, better adapt the sampling design to the country characteristics and efficiently commit fieldwork in Spain. For example, the dynamic character of the population nowadays makes necessary to estimated design effects at each round from the data of the previous round. The paper also demonstrates how, starting with a response rate of 52% at first round, a 66% response rate is achieved at the third round thanks to an extensive quality control conducted by the polling agency and the ESS national team and based on a detailed analysis of the non-response cases and the incidences reported by the interviewed in the contact form.

Sitobion graminis Takahashi, 1950 (Hemiptera, Aphididae): first record in Brazil, biological and morphometric parameters

The species Sitobion graminis Takahashi, 1950 (Hemiptera, Aphididae) was first detected in Brazil in 1998, in Curitiba, Paraná state, associated with the grass species Erianthus sp., Calamagrotis sp. and Paspalum urvilei. Both the field-collected and laboratory-reared specimens presented a noticeable intrapopulational variation in body and appendix length and in dorso-abdominal sclerotization. This species has been recorded in Malaysia, New Guinea, India, Philippines and Africa, where it colonizes several species of Poaceae. S. graminis differs from other Sitobion species from Brazil associated with grasses, as it presents black cauda and siphunculi and exhibits a constriction in the base of the last rostral segment. Biological data were obtained in the laboratory by rearing newborn nymphs on the inflorescence of the host plants. They passed through four nymphal instars. The mean duration of the nymphal stage was of 11.4 days, with a mortality ratio of 36.5%. The mean pre-larviposition period was of 1.8 days; mean longevity of the females was 25.2 days; and mean fecundity was 18.7 nymphs/female, ranging from 2 to 41 nymphs/female.

Cordiluroides Albuquerque from Costa Rica: first records, descriptions and taxonomic changes (Diptera, Muscidae, Coenosiinae)

Cordiluroides Albuquerque is a genus of Neotropical Coenosiinae (Muscidae), known from six species. The genus is here recorded for the first time from Costa Rica, on the basis of three species: C. listrata Albuquerque, 1954, C. insularis (Willliston, 1896) and C. bistriata (Wulp, 1896) sp. rev.. We provide a key for the identification of these Costa Rican species, redescribe and illustrate their external morphological characters and terminalia. C. bistriata and C. vittifera (Stein, 1904) are both considered to be good species and are re-instated from the synonymy of C. insularis. The type material of C. listrata (Museu Nacional, Rio de Janeiro), of C. insularis and C. bistriata (The Natural History Museum, London) and of C. vittifera (Museum für Naturkunde, Humboldt-Universität zu Berlin) has been examined.

Three essays on organizations and their external environment

Abstract: The literature on the various links between organizations and their external environment is very extensive and fragmented. This thesis is comprised of three separate essays, each examining specific research questions related to these links. The first essay deals with the notion of industry life cycle and how the geographical concentration of an industry is linked to the particular life cycle stage in which the industry finds itself. The aim of this first essay is firstly to verify if the evolution of the Swiss hotel industry fits some of the stylized facts of the industry life cycle. The second aim is to verify if there is evidence of geographical clustering of the hotel industry, and by extension of tourism. The third aim is to verify a hypothesis that industry decline manifests itself mainly by company closures in decentralized locations. The importance for organizational survival and performance of adapting and reacting to environmental changes has long been ascertained. This adaptation requires managers, under conditions of uncertainty, to identify relevant changes in their external environment and to interpret the possible effects of those changes on their organization. Furthermore, it requires finding and adopting organizational responses in reaction to the environmental changes. The second essay explores how managers perceive their environment by reporting the results of two workshops held with managers from the European hotel industry. In the third essay we examine in more detail the role of uncertainty in the interpretation by executives of environmental changes. We integrate existing theories of interpretation and uncertainty into one framework, which we then test using national survey data from the hotel industry. In all three essays we are able to provide some evidence to support our main hypotheses, but.also make suggestions far further research into the topics examined.

The hotel industry and its importance in the technical and economic development of a region : the Lake Geneva case (1852-1914)

The historiography dedicated to tourism has emphasised how some socio-economic evolutions such as urbanisation, mechanisation of transport or the advent of leisure time in society have supported pleasure trips and therefore the development of the hotel industry. On the contrary, the research has too often neglected or at least minimised the impact of the hotel sector on a region's development. This contribution seeks to fill this gap by analysing the Geneva Lake region, one of the most important birthplaces of the European tourism. In this space not much touched by the first industrial revolution, the hotel business has in fact played the role of an economic motor, stimulating investment and employment. This dynamism provoked a domino effect on several other sectors of the economy (industry, bulding sector, banking). To please their customers, the hoteliers have not only given impulses on housing modernisation, but also to the revitalisation of transport, energy and communication networks. The necessity to remain on the state-of-the-art of technical issues, with the concern of competitiveness, has called forth an acceleration of the technology transfer and stimulated the constitution of technical know-how.