An energy-autonomous home in Melbourne - myth or reality?

Energy-autonomous buildings are possible. Completely energy self-sufficient houses can be found, for example, in Europe. If it is possible to cover the entire energy demand of a household from only renewable energy generated on site in a central European climate, what is required in a temperate climate, typical of southern Australia? This paper describes an investigation to broadly assess the technical, practical and financial feasibility of energy-autonomy for a hypothetical suburban house in Melbourne, Victoria. The findings firstly demonstrate the importance of reducing energy demand by using passive solar building strategies and energy efficient appliances to reduce demand to a reasonable level. The paper then discusses four scenarios and combinations of technologies to meet this reduced demand. The three scenarios which give energy autonomy increase the capital cost of a typical house by between 15% and 3%, and there would be insufficient roof area to accommodate the solar technologies required in two of the scenarios investigated. It is therefore concluded that while the goal of energy autonomy is technically feasible, it is not likely to be financially or practically acceptable. A fourth scenario of an energy-exporting house was also investigated and is shown to be a much more attractive option.

Integrating time-series hydroacoustics and video observations for detecting changes in benthic habitats

The ability to quantify change in marine benthic habitats must be considered a key goal of marine habitat mapping activities. Changes in distribution of distinct suites of benthic biological species may occur as a result of natural or human induced processes and these processes may operate at a range of temporal and spatial scales. It is important to understand natural small scale inter-annual patterns of change in order to separate these signals from potential patterns of longer term change. Work to describe these processes of change from an acoustic remote sensing stand point has thus far been limited due to the relatively recent availability of full coverage swath acoustic datasets and cost pressures associated with multiple surveys of the same area. This paper describes the use of landscape transition analysis as a means to differentiate seemingly random patterns of habitat change from systematic signals of habitat transition at a shallow (10–50 m depth) 18 km2 study area on the temperate Australian continental shelf between the years 2006 and 2007. Supervised classifications for each year were accomplished using independently collected high resolution (3 m cell-size) multibeam echosounder (MBES) and video-derived reference data. Of the 4 representative biotic classes considered, signals of directional systematic changes were observed to occur between a shallow kelp dominated class, a deep sessile invertebrate dominated class and a mixed class of kelp and sessile invertebrates. These signals of change are interpreted as inter-annual variation in the density and depth related extent of canopy forming kelp species at the site, a phenomenon reported in smaller scale temporal studies of the same species. The methods applied in this study provide a detailed analysis of the various components of the traditional change detection cross tabulation matrix allowing identification of the strongest signals of systematic habitat transitions across broad geographical regions. Identifying clear patterns of habitat change is an important first step in linking these patterns to the processes that drive them.

Testing the influence of survey method for building species distribution models of marine fishes

Accurate estimates of fish species occurrence are important to any species’ assessments and habitat suitability model. However, surveys of marine fishes are often biased by method. Surveys of marine fishes are often biased by method. Such bias could influence the interpretation of any habitat suitability model. With increasing emphasis on non-destructive sampling, underwater video techniques are commonly used without a thorough understanding of their advantages and disadvantages. This study compared data collected from baited remote underwater stereo-video systems and towed-video systems to provide occurrence data to develop habitat suitability models of nine temperate marine fishes. While numerous studies have compared modelling approaches in terms of model performance (i.e. via AUC or Kappa) the point of this paper was to highlight how very sensiblelooking, well-performing (based on AUC) models can provide different predictions of habitat suitability depending on which dataset is used.

Optimising the life cycle energy performance of residential buildings

A holistic approach to low-energy building design is essential to ensure that any efficiency improvement strategies provide a net energy benefit over the life of the building. Previous work by the authors has established a model for informing low-energy building design based on a comparison of the life cycle energy demand associated with a broad range of building assemblies. This model ranks assemblies based on their combined initial and recurrent embodied energy and operational energy demand. The current study applies this model to an actual residential building in order to demonstrate the application of the model for optimising a building’s life cycle energy performance. The aim of this study was to demonstrate how the availability of comparable energy performance information at the building design stage can be used to better optimise a building’s energy performance. The life cycle energy demand of the case study building, located in the temperate climate of Melbourne, Australia, was quantified using a comprehensive embodied energy assessment technique and TRNSYS thermal energy simulation software. The building was then modelled with variations to its external assemblies in an attempt to optimise its life cycle energy performance. The alternative assemblies chosen were those shown through the author’s previous modelling to result in the lowest life cycle energy demand for each building element. The best performing assemblies for each of the main external building elements were then combined into a best-case scenario to quantify the potential life cycle energy savings possible compared to the original building. The study showed that significant life cycle energy savings are possible through the modelling of individual building elements for the case study building. While these findings relate to a very specific case, this study demonstrates the application of a model for optimising building life cycle energy performance that may be applied more broadly during early-stage building design to optimise life cycle energy performance.

Seasonal periodicity of serum vitamin D and parathyroid hormone, bone resorption, and fractures : the Geelong Osteoporosis Study

In this population-based study, seasonal periodicity was seen with reduced serum vitamin D, increased serum PTH, and increased bone resorption in winter. This was associated with an increased proportion of falls resulting in fracture and an increased risk of wrist and hip fractures.

Introduction: In a population of women who reside in a temperate climate and do not generally receive dietary vitamin D supplementation, we investigated whether seasonal vitamin D insufficiency is associated with increased risk of fracture.

Materials and Methods: An observational, cross-sectional, population-based study set in southeastern Australia (latitude 38–39° S). Participants were drawn from a well-defined community of 27,203 women ≥55 years old: 287 randomly selected from electoral rolls, 1635 with incident fractures, and 1358 presenting to a university hospital with falls. The main outcome measures were annual periodicities of ultraviolet radiation, serum 25-hydroxyvitamin D [25(OH)D], serum parathyroid hormone (PTH), serum C-telopeptide (CTx), BMD, falls, and fractures.

Results: Cyclic variations in serum 25(OH)D lagged 1 month behind ultraviolet radiation, peaking in summer and dipping in winter (p < 0.001). Periodicity of serum PTH was the inverse of serum 25(OH)D, with a phase shift delay of 1 month (p = 0.004). Peak serum CTx lagged peak serum PTH by 1–2 months. In late winter, a greater proportion of falls resulted in fracture (p < 0.001). Seasonal periodicity in 439 hip and 307 wrist fractures also followed a simple harmonic model (p = 0.078 and 0.002, respectively), peaking 1.5–3 months after the trough in 25(OH)D.

Conclusions: A fall in 25(OH)D in winter is accompanied by increases in (1) PTH levels, (2) bone resorption, (3) the proportion of falls resulting in fracture, and (4) the frequency of hip and wrist fracture. Whether vitamin D supplementation in winter can reduce the population burden of fractures requires further investigation.

Behavioural and physical characteristics associated with vitamin D status in women

For most people in Australia, the primary source of vitamin D is casual exposure to sunlight. Hypovitaminosis D has been reported for high-risk populations, but little has been documented for women of all ages living in the community. Using cross-sectional data, we aimed to describe physical and behavioural characteristics associated with serum 25-hydroxyvitamin D (25OHD) for such women and to determine the association of serum 25OHD with hypertension and bone health. Serum 25OHD, parathyroid hormone (PTH), blood pressure, bone mineral density (BMD) and anthropometry were measured in a random sample of 861 women aged 20–92 years enrolled in the Geelong Osteoporosis Study, set in a temperate region at latitude 38–39°S. Lifestyle factors (including diet, smoking, medication use, socio-economic status, residence, education, occupation, and physical activity) were documented by questionnaire. In season-adjusted models for women aged 20–54 years, physical activity and living with a partner were independently and positively associated with serum 25OHD; associations with weight and waist–hip ratio were negative. Among older women, physical activity, vitamin D intake and urban dwelling were positively associated with serum 25OHD; age, weight and smoking were negative. Compared with the lowest tertile, those in the highest serum 25OHD tertile were less likely to have elevated serum PTH (adjusted OR = 0.25, 95% CI 0.16–0.41) and high blood pressure (adjusted OR = 0.40, 95% CI 0.22–0.72), and more likely to have normal hip and spine BMD (adjusted OR = 1.65, 95% CI 1.08–2.52). In multivariable models adjusting for season, age, weight (and height), BMD was associated with serum 25OHD at the spine, hip and whole body; no associations were detected at the forearm and no other characteristics were identified as confounders. Factors associated with high vitamin D status generally reflected healthy body habitus and active lifestyles. In contrast, excessive weight and smoking were associated with poorer vitamin D status. Women with high vitamin D were less likely to have elevated PTH, hypertension or bone deficits than women with poor levels.

Risk factors for Mycobacterium ulcerans infection, southeastern Australia

Buruli/Bairnsdale ulcer (BU) is a severe skin and soft tissue disease caused by Mycobacterium ulcerans. To better understand how BU is acquired, we conducted a case-control study during a sustained outbreak in temperate southeastern Australia. We recruited 49 adult patients with BU and 609 control participants from a newly recognized BU-endemic area in southeastern Australia. Participants were asked about their lifestyle and insect exposure. Odds ratios were calculated by using logistic regression and were adjusted for age and location of residence. Odds of having BU were at least halved for those who frequently used insect repellent, wore long trousers outdoors, and immediately washed minor skin wounds; odds were at least doubled for those who received mosquito bites on the lower legs or lower arms. This study provides new circumstantial evidence that implicates mosquitoes in the transmission of M. ulcerans in southeastern Australia.

Heat tolerance, behavioural temperature selection and temperature-dependent respiration in larval Octopus huttoni

This study reports temperature effects on paralarvae from a benthic octopus species, Octopus huttoni, found throughout New Zealand and temperate Australia. We quantified the thermal tolerance, thermal preference and temperature-dependent respiration rates in 1-5 days old paralarvae. Thermal stress (1°C increase h^-1) and thermal selection (~10-24°C vertical gradient) experiments were conducted with paralarvae reared for 4 days at 16°C. In addition, measurement of oxygen consumption at 10, 15, 20 and 25°C was made for paralarvae aged 1, 4 and 5 days using microrespirometry. Onset of spasms, rigour (CT_max) and mortality (upper lethal limit) occurred for 50% of experimental animals at, respectively, 26.0±0.2°C, 27.8±0.2°C and 31.4±0.1°C. The upper, 23.1±0.2°C, and lower, 15.0±1.7°C, temperatures actively avoided by paralarvae correspond with the temperature range over which normal behaviours were observed in the thermal stress experiments. Over the temperature range of 10°C-25°C, respiration rates, standardized for an individual larva, increased with age, from 54.0 to 165.2nmol larvae^-1h^-1 in one-day old larvae to 40.1-99.4nmol h^-1 at five days. Older larvae showed a lesser response to increased temperature: the effect of increasing temperature from 20 to 25°C (Q₁₀) on 5 days old larvae (Q₁₀=1.35) was lower when compared with the 1 day old larvae (Q₁₀=1.68). The lower Q₁₀ in older larvae may reflect age-related changes in metabolic processes or a greater scope of older larvae to respond to thermal stress such as by reducing activity. Collectively, our data indicate that temperatures >25°C may be a critical temperature. Further studies on the population-level variation in thermal tolerance in this species are warranted to predict how continued increases in ocean temperature will limit O. huttoni at early larval stages across the range of this species.

Comparing the seasonal survival of resident and migratory oystercatchers : carry-over effects of habitat quality and weather conditions

Events happening in one season can affect life-history traits at (the) subsequent season(s) by carry-over effects. Wintering conditions are known to affect breeding success, but few studies have investigated carry-over effects on survival. The Eurasian oystercatcher Haematopus ostralegus is a coastal wader with sedentary populations at temperate sites and migratory populations in northern breeding grounds of Europe. We pooled continental European ringing-recovery datasets from 1975 to 2000 to estimate winter and summer survival rates of migrant and resident populations and to investigate long-term effects of winter habitat changes. During mild climatic periods, adults of both migratory and resident populations exhibited survival rates 2% lower in summer than in winter. Severe winters reduced survival rates (down to 25% reduction) and were often followed by a decline in survival during the following summer, via short-term carry-over effects. Habitat changes in the Dutch wintering grounds caused a reduction in food stocks, leading to reduced survival rates, particularly in young birds. Therefore, wintering habitat changes resulted in long-term (>10 years) 8.7 and 9.4% decrease in adult annual survival of migrant and resident populations respectively. Studying the impact of carry-over effects is crucial for understanding the life history of migratory birds and the development of conservation measures.

Ontogeny of energy allocation reveals selective pressure promoting risk-taking behaviour in young fish cohorts

Given limited food, prey fishes in a temperate climate must take risks to acquire sufficient reserves for winter and/or to outgrow vulnerability to predation. However, how can we distinguish which selective pressure promotes risk-taking when larger body size is always beneficial? To address this question, we examined patterns of energy allocation in populations of age-0 trout to determine if greater risk-taking corresponds with energy allocation to lipids or to somatic growth. Trout achieved maximum growth rates in all lakes and allocated nearly all of their acquired energy to somatic growth when small in early summer. However, trout in low-food lakes took greater risks to achieve this maximal growth, and therefore incurred high mortality. By late summer, age-0 trout allocated considerable energy to lipids and used previously risky habitats in all lakes. These results indicate that: (i) the size-dependent risk of predation (which is independent of behaviour) promotes risk-taking behaviour of age-0 trout to increase growth and minimize time spent in vulnerable sizes; and (ii) the physiology of energy allocation and behaviour interact to mediate growth/mortality trade-offs for young animals at risk of predation and starvation.

Early microhabitat use by age 0 year brook charr Salvelinus fontinalis in lakes

The early habitat use of age 0 year brook charr Salvelinus fontinalis in three north temperate lakes which differ in terms of shoreline physical habitat is described. In the two lakes, which contained abundant shoreline woody debris and inundated vegetation, brook charr were observed in extremely close proximity with these habitat features, near shore and near the surface. Fish were absent from open areas away from shore unless in close proximity with fallen floating logs near the surface, extending offshore. In a third lake that had no woody debris or inundated shoreline vegetation, brook charr were observed exclusively in close proximity with the shoreline itself, and near the surface. In all three lakes, fish were most closely associated with the shoreline and with woody debris and inundated vegetation (when present) shortly after emergence, and significantly farther from shore and deeper in the water column thereafter.

Assessing effects of diel period, gear selectivity and predation on patterns of microhabitat use by fish in a mangrove dominated system in SE Australia

The relative value of temperate mangroves to fish, and the processes driving patterns of microhabitat use within this habitat, are unknown. There are 3 quickly identifiable microhabitats within temperate Australian mangroves: (1) forest (the area of mangroves with trees); (2) pneumatophores (the area directly seaward of the forest without trees but with pneumatophores [aerial roots]); and (3) channel (the area directly seaward of the pneumatophores without gross structural attributes such as trees or pneumatophores). Duplicate fyke and gill nets were both initially used to sample fish in the 3 microhabitats described above. Sampling took place across the seaward edge of mangroves on 10 sampling occasions (5 night and 5 day), in a large estuarine system in SE Australia. Fish assemblages (693 fish from 20 species and 15 families) varied significantly (p < 0.05) between the forest and the channel, and between diel periods for each gear (net type), but there was little difference in the assemblage structure of fish between forest–pneumatophore or pneumatophore–channel microhabitats. Juvenile lifestages (61% of all fish) and commercially important taxa (76%) were common. Abundance, biomass and species richness of fish were generally lower in the forest than the other microhabitats, but this pattern varied significantly (p < 0.05) between diel periods, among sampling occasions, and with water depth. Highly quantitative pop nets provided a preliminary assessment of whether differential gear selectivity caused patterns between microhabitats, but less rich fish assemblages were again recorded in forests than in pneumatophores. The importance of predation in structuring fish assemblages across microhabitats was assessed by measuring survival of juvenile fish tethered in 3 predation treatments (predator exclusion, cage control, and uncaged). Survival rates were high across the predator treatments and did not vary among microhabitats. The variation in fish assemblages across microhabitats within mangroves was not consistent with a model of mangrove structure providing a refuge for juvenile fish from predation, but instead could indicate differences in efficiency of gear types among microhabitats and/or other ‘edge effect’-driven processes such as the provision of food and/or shelter.

Climate change impacts : challenges for aquaculture

In spite of all the debates and controversies, a global consensus has been reached that climate change is a reality and that it will impact, in diverse manifestations that may include increased global temperature, sea level rise, more frequent occurrence of extreme weather events, change in weather patterns, etc., on food production systems, global biodiversity and overall human well being. Aquaculture is no exception. The sector is characterized by the fact that the organisms cultured, the most diverse of all farming systems and in the number of taxa farmed, are all poikilotherms. It occurs in fresh, brackish and marine waters, and in all climatic regimes from temperate to tropical. Consequently, there are bound to be many direct impacts on aquatic farming systems brought about by climate change. The situation is further exacerbated by the fact that certain aquaculture systems are dependent, to varying degrees, on products such as fishmeal and fish oil, which are derived from wild-caught resources that are subjected to reduction processes. All of the above factors will impact on aquaculture in the decades to come and accordingly, the aquatic farming systems will begin to encounter new challenges to maintain sustainability and continue to contribute to the human food basket. The challenges will vary significantly between climatic regimes. In the tropics, the main challenges will be to those farming activities that occur in deltaic regions, which also happen to be hubs of aquaculture activity, such as in the Mekong and Red River deltas in Viet Nam and the Ganges-Brahamaputra Delta in Bangladesh. Aquaculture in tropical deltaic areas will be mostly impacted by sea level rise, and hence increased saline water intrusion and reduced water flows, among others. Elsewhere in the tropics, inland cage culture and other aquaculture activities could be impacted by extreme weather conditions, increased upwelling of deoxygenated waters in reservoirs, etc., requiring greater vigilance and monitoring, and even perhaps readiness to move operations to more conducive areas in a waterbody. Indirect impacts of climate change on tropical aquaculture could be manifold but are perhaps largely unknown. The reproductive cycles of a great majority of tropical species are dependent on monsoonal rain patterns, which are predicted to change. Consequently, irrespective of whether cultured species are artificially propagated or not, changes in reproductive cycles will impact on seed production and thereby the whole grow-out cycle and modus operandi of farm activities. Equally, such impacts will be felt on the culture of those species that are based on natural spat collection, such as that of many cultured molluscs. In the temperate region, global warming could raise temperatures to the upper tolerance limits of some cultured species, thereby making such culture systems vulnerable to high temperatures. New or hitherto non-pathogenic organisms may become virulent with increases in water temperature, confronting the sector with new, hitherto unmanifested and/or little known diseases. One of the most important indirect effects of climate change will be driven by impacts on production of those fish species that are used for reduction, and which in turn form the basis for aquaculture feeds, particularly for carnivorous species. These indirect effects are likely to have a major impact on some key aquaculture practices in all climatic regimes. Limitations of supplies of fishmeal and fish oil and resulting exorbitant price hikes of these commodities will lead to more innovative and pragmatic solutions on ingredient substitution for aquatic feeds, which perhaps will be a positive result arising from a dire need to sustain a major sector. Aquaculture has to be proactive and start addressing the need for adaptive and mitigative measures. Such measures will entail both technological and socio-economic approaches. The latter will be more applicable to small-scale farmers, who happen to be the great bulk of producers in developing countries, which in turn constitute the “backbone’ of global aquaculture. The sociological approaches will entail the challenge of addressing the potential climate change impacts on small farming communities in the most vulnerable areas, such as in deltaic regions, weighing the most feasible adaptive options and bringing about the policy changes required to implement these adaptive measures economically and effectively. Global food habits have changed over the years. We are currently in an era where food safety and quality, backed up by ecolabelling, are paramount; it was not so 20 years ago. In the foreseeable future, we will move into an era where consumer consciousness will demand that farmed foods of every form will have to include in their labeled products the green house gas (GHG) emissions per unit of produce. Clearly, aquaculture offers an opportunity to meet these aspirations. Considering that about 70 percent of all finfish and almost 100 percent of all molluscs and seaweeds are minimally GHG emitting, it is possible to drive aquaculture as the most GHG-friendly food source. The sector could conform to such demands and continue to meet the need for an increasing global food fish supply. However, to achieve this, a paradigm shift in our seafood consumption preferences will be needed.

Spatial and temporal drivers of small mammal distributions in a semi-arid environment : the role of rainfall, vegetation and life-history

A key task in ecology is to understand the drivers of animal distributions. In arid and semi-arid environments, this is challenging because animal populations show considerable spatial and temporal variation. An effective approach in such systems is to examine both broad-scale and long-term data. We used this approach to investigate the distribution of small mammal species in semi-arid ‘mallee’ vegetation in south-eastern Australia. First, we examined broad-scale data collected at 280 sites across the Murray Mallee region. We used generalized additive mixed models (GAMMs) to examine four hypotheses concerning factors that influence the distribution of individual mammal species at this scale: vegetation structure, floristic diversity, topography and recent rainfall. Second, we used long-term data from a single conservation reserve (surveyed from 1997 to 2012) to examine small mammal responses to rainfall over a period spanning a broad range of climatic conditions, including record high rainfall in 2011. Small mammal distributions were strongly associated with vegetation structure and rainfall patterns, but the relative importance of these drivers was species-specific. The distribution of the mallee ningaui Ningaui yvonneae, for example, was largely determined by the cover of hummock grass; whereas the occurrence of the western pygmy possum Cercartetus concinnus was most strongly associated with above-average rainfall. Further, the combination of both broad-scale and long-term data provided valuable insights. Bolam's mouse Pseudomys bolami was uncommon during the broad-scale survey, but long-term surveys showed that it responds positively to above-average rainfall. Conceptual models developed for small mammals in temperate and central arid Australia, respectively, were not, on their own, adequate to account for the distributional patterns of species in this semi-arid ecosystem. Species-specific variation in the relative importance of different drivers was more effectively explained by qualitative differences in life-history attributes among species.

Detecting patterns of change in benthic habitats by acoustic remote sensing

Changes in benthic habitats occur as a result of natural variation or human-induced processes. It is important to understand natural fine-scale inter-annual patterns of change to separate these signals from patterns of long-term change. Describing change from an acoustic remote sensing standpoint has been facilitated by the recent availability of full coverage swath acoustic datasets, but is limited by cost pressures associated with multiple surveys of the same area. We studied the use of landscape transition analysis as a means to differentiate seemingly random patterns of habitat change from systematic signals of habitat transition at a shallow (10 to 50 m depth) 18 km2 site on the temperate Australian continental shelf in 2006 and 2007. Supervised classifications for each year were accomplished using inde pendently collected highresolution swath acoustic and video reference data. Of the 4 representative biotic clas ses considered, signals of directional systematic changes occurred be tween a kelp-dominated class, a sessile invertebrate-dominated class and a mixed class of kelp and sessile invertebrates. We provide a detailed analysis of the components of the traditional change detection cross tabulation matrix, allowing identification of the strongest signals of systematic habitat transitions. Iden tifying patterns of habitat change is an important first step toward understanding the processes that drive them.