Anticipating future risk in social-ecological systems using fuzzy cognitive mapping: the case of wildfire in the Chiquitania, Bolivia

Understanding complex social-ecological systems, and anticipating how they may respond to rapid change, requires an approach that incorporates environmental, social, economic, and policy factors, usually in a context of fragmented data availability. We employed fuzzy cognitive mapping (FCM) to integrate these factors in the assessment of future wildfire risk in the Chiquitania region, Bolivia. In this region, dealing with wildfires is becoming increasingly challenging due to reinforcing feedbacks between multiple drivers. We conducted semi-structured interviews and constructed different FCMs in focus groups to understand the regional dynamics of wildfire from diverse perspectives. We used FCM modelling to evaluate possible adaptation scenarios in the context of future drier climatic conditions. Scenarios also considered possible failure to respond in time to the emergent risk. This approach proved of great potential to support decision-making for risk management. It helped identify key forcing variables and generate insights into potential risks and trade-offs of different strategies. All scenarios showed increased wildfire risk in the event of more droughts. The ‘Hands-off’ scenario resulted in amplified impacts driven by intensifying trends, affecting particularly the agricultural production. The ‘Fire management’ scenario, which adopted a bottom-up approach to improve controlled burning, showed less trade-offs between wildfire risk reduction and production compared to the ‘Fire suppression’ scenario. Findings highlighted the importance of considering strategies that involve all actors who use fire, and the need to nest these strategies for a more systemic approach to manage wildfire risk. The FCM model could be used as a decision-support tool and serve as a ‘boundary object’ to facilitate collaboration and integration of different forms of knowledge and perceptions of fire in the region. This approach has also the potential to support decisions in other dynamic frontier landscapes around the world that are facing increased risk of large wildfires.

A fast adaptive tunable RBF network for nonstationary systems

This paper describes a novel on-line learning approach for radial basis function (RBF) neural network. Based on an RBF network with individually tunable nodes and a fixed small model size, the weight vector is adjusted using the multi-innovation recursive least square algorithm on-line. When the residual error of the RBF network becomes large despite of the weight adaptation, an insignificant node with little contribution to the overall system is replaced by a new node. Structural parameters of the new node are optimized by proposed fast algorithms in order to significantly improve the modeling performance. The proposed scheme describes a novel, flexible, and fast way for on-line system identification problems. Simulation results show that the proposed approach can significantly outperform existing ones for nonstationary systems in particular.

On site flotation for recovering polluted aquatic systems: is it a feasible solution for a Brazilian urban river?

Pinheiros River (Brazil) plays a pivotal role in supplying water to Billings Reservoir, which presents multiple uses (human drinking, energy generation, irrigation, navigation, fishing and leisure) An intense monitoring program was performed during the years 2007 and 2008 to find out whether on site flotation is a feasible solution or not for improving the water quality of this urban river, attenuating the pollutants load caused by the water pumping to the reservoir (approximately 10 m(3)s(-1)) The monitoring of 18 variables (13,429 laboratorial analysis during the period of 490 days), suggested that despite the convenience of the on site approach for water treatment, especially for rivers located in fully urbanized areas, the flotation system is not enough itself to recover Pinheiros River water quality, given the several constraints that apply Total phosphorus removal was high in percentage terms (about 90%), although the remaining concentrations were not so low (mean of 0 05 mg L(-1)) The removal efficiency of some variables was insufficient, leading to high final mean concentrations of metals [e g aluminium (0 29 mg L(-1)), chromium (0 02 mg L(-1)) and iron (1 1 mg L(-1))] as well as nitrogen-ammonia (25 8 mg L(-1)) and total suspended solids (18 mg L(-1)) in the treated water

Nitrogen fluxes from treefrogs to tank epiphytic bromeliads: an isotopic and physiological approach

Diverse invertebrate and vertebrate species live in association with plants of the large Neotropical family Bromeliaceae. Although previous studies have assumed that debris of associated organisms improves plant nutrition, so far little evidence supports this assumption. In this study we used isotopic ((15)N) and physiological methods to investigate if the treefrog Scinax hayii, which uses the tank epiphytic bromeliad Vriesea bituminosa as a diurnal shelter, contributes to host plant nutrition. In the field, bromeliads with frogs had higher stable N isotopic composition (delta(15)N) values than those without frogs. Similar results were obtained from a controlled greenhouse experiment. Linear mixing models showed that frog feces and dead termites used to simulate insects that eventually fall inside the bromeliad tank contributed, respectively, 27.7% (+/- 0.07 SE) and 49.6% (+/- 0.50 SE) of the total N of V. bituminosa. Net photosynthetic rate was higher in plants that received feces and termites than in controls; however, this effect was only detected in the rainy, but not in the dry season. These results demonstrate for the first time that vertebrates contribute to bromeliad nutrition, and that this benefit is seasonally restricted. Since amphibian-bromeliad associations occur in diverse habitats in South and Central America, this mechanism for deriving nutrients may be important in bromeliad systems throughout the Neotropics.

Revealing the whiteboard to blind students: An inclusive approach to provide mediation in synchronous e-learning activities

Promoting the inclusion of students with disabilities in e-learning systems has brought many challenges for researchers and educators. The use of synchronous communication tools such as interactive whiteboards has been regarded as an obstacle for inclusive education. In this paper, we present the proposal of an inclusive approach to provide blind students with the possibility to participate in live learning sessions with whiteboard software. The approach is based on the provision of accessible textual descriptions by a live mediator. With the accessible descriptions, students are able to navigate through the elements and explore the content of the class using screen readers. The method used for this study consisted of the implementation of a software prototype within a virtual learning environment and a case study with the participation of a blind student in a live distance class. The results from the case study have shown that this approach can be very effective, and may be a starting point to provide blind students with resources they had previously been deprived from. The proof of concept implemented has shown that many further possibilities may be explored to enhance the interaction of blind users with educational content in whiteboards, and further pedagogical approaches can be investigated from this proposal. (C) 2009 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

A novel approach for distributed application scheduling based on prediction of communication events

The evolution of commodity computing lead to the possibility of efficient usage of interconnected machines to solve computationally-intensive tasks, which were previously solvable only by using expensive supercomputers. This, however, required new methods for process scheduling and distribution, considering the network latency, communication cost, heterogeneous environments and distributed computing constraints. An efficient distribution of processes over such environments requires an adequate scheduling strategy, as the cost of inefficient process allocation is unacceptably high. Therefore, a knowledge and prediction of application behavior is essential to perform effective scheduling. In this paper, we overview the evolution of scheduling approaches, focusing on distributed environments. We also evaluate the current approaches for process behavior extraction and prediction, aiming at selecting an adequate technique for online prediction of application execution. Based on this evaluation, we propose a novel model for application behavior prediction, considering chaotic properties of such behavior and the automatic detection of critical execution points. The proposed model is applied and evaluated for process scheduling in cluster and grid computing environments. The obtained results demonstrate that prediction of the process behavior is essential for efficient scheduling in large-scale and heterogeneous distributed environments, outperforming conventional scheduling policies by a factor of 10, and even more in some cases. Furthermore, the proposed approach proves to be efficient for online predictions due to its low computational cost and good precision. (C) 2009 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

A hybrid case adaptation approach for case-based reasoning

Case-Based Reasoning is a methodology for problem solving based on past experiences. This methodology tries to solve a new problem by retrieving and adapting previously known solutions of similar problems. However, retrieved solutions, in general, require adaptations in order to be applied to new contexts. One of the major challenges in Case-Based Reasoning is the development of an efficient methodology for case adaptation. The most widely used form of adaptation employs hand coded adaptation rules, which demands a significant knowledge acquisition and engineering effort. An alternative to overcome the difficulties associated with the acquisition of knowledge for case adaptation has been the use of hybrid approaches and automatic learning algorithms for the acquisition of the knowledge used for the adaptation. We investigate the use of hybrid approaches for case adaptation employing Machine Learning algorithms. The approaches investigated how to automatically learn adaptation knowledge from a case base and apply it to adapt retrieved solutions. In order to verify the potential of the proposed approaches, they are experimentally compared with individual Machine Learning techniques. The results obtained indicate the potential of these approaches as an efficient approach for acquiring case adaptation knowledge. They show that the combination of Instance-Based Learning and Inductive Learning paradigms and the use of a data set of adaptation patterns yield adaptations of the retrieved solutions with high predictive accuracy.

A hybrid approach to learn with imbalanced classes using evolutionary algorithms

There is an increasing interest in the application of Evolutionary Algorithms (EAs) to induce classification rules. This hybrid approach can benefit areas where classical methods for rule induction have not been very successful. One example is the induction of classification rules in imbalanced domains. Imbalanced data occur when one or more classes heavily outnumber other classes. Frequently, classical machine learning (ML) classifiers are not able to learn in the presence of imbalanced data sets, inducing classification models that always predict the most numerous classes. In this work, we propose a novel hybrid approach to deal with this problem. We create several balanced data sets with all minority class cases and a random sample of majority class cases. These balanced data sets are fed to classical ML systems that produce rule sets. The rule sets are combined creating a pool of rules and an EA is used to build a classifier from this pool of rules. This hybrid approach has some advantages over undersampling, since it reduces the amount of discarded information, and some advantages over oversampling, since it avoids overfitting. The proposed approach was experimentally analysed and the experimental results show an improvement in the classification performance measured as the area under the receiver operating characteristics (ROC) curve.

UNIFORM DISSIPATIVENESS, ROBUST SYNCHRONIZATION AND LOCATION OF THE ATTRACTOR OF PARAMETRIZED NONAUTONOMOUS DISCRETE SYSTEMS

In this series of papers, we study issues related to the synchronization of two coupled chaotic discrete systems arising from secured communication. The first part deals with uniform dissipativeness with respect to parameter variation via the Liapunov direct method. We obtain uniform estimates of the global attractor for a general discrete nonautonomous system, that yields a uniform invariance principle in the autonomous case. The Liapunov function is allowed to have positive derivative along solutions of the system inside a bounded set, and this reduces substantially the difficulty of constructing a Liapunov function for a given system. In particular, we develop an approach that incorporates the classical Lagrange multiplier into the Liapunov function method to naturally extend those Liapunov functions from continuous dynamical system to their discretizations, so that the corresponding uniform dispativeness results are valid when the step size of the discretization is small. Applications to the discretized Lorenz system and the discretization of a time-periodic chaotic system are given to illustrate the general results. We also show how to obtain uniform estimation of attractors for parametrized linear stable systems with nonlinear perturbation.

Two-level network design with intermediate facilities: An application to electrical distribution systems

We consider the two-level network design problem with intermediate facilities. This problem consists of designing a minimum cost network respecting some requirements, usually described in terms of the network topology or in terms of a desired flow of commodities between source and destination vertices. Each selected link must receive one of two types of edge facilities and the connection of different edge facilities requires a costly and capacitated vertex facility. We propose a hybrid decomposition approach which heuristically obtains tentative solutions for the vertex facilities number and location and use these solutions to limit the computational burden of a branch-and-cut algorithm. We test our method on instances of the power system secondary distribution network design problem. The results show that the method is efficient both in terms of solution quality and computational times. (C) 2010 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

A linear optimization approach to the combined production planning model

Two fundamental processes usually arise in the production planning of many industries. The first one consists of deciding how many final products of each type have to be produced in each period of a planning horizon, the well-known lot sizing problem. The other process consists of cutting raw materials in stock in order to produce smaller parts used in the assembly of final products, the well-studied cutting stock problem. In this paper the decision variables of these two problems are dependent of each other in order to obtain a global optimum solution. Setups that are typically present in lot sizing problems are relaxed together with integer frequencies of cutting patterns in the cutting problem. Therefore, a large scale linear optimizations problem arises, which is exactly solved by a column generated technique. It is worth noting that this new combined problem still takes the trade-off between storage costs (for final products and the parts) and trim losses (in the cutting process). We present some sets of computational tests, analyzed over three different scenarios. These results show that, by combining the problems and using an exact method, it is possible to obtain significant gains when compared to the usual industrial practice, which solve them in sequence. (C) 2010 The Franklin Institute. Published by Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

A pointcut-based coverage analysis approach for aspect-oriented programs

Aspect-oriented programming (AOP) is a promising technology that supports separation of crosscutting concerns (i.e., functionality that tends to be tangled with, and scattered through the rest of the system). In AOP, a method-like construct named advice is applied to join points in the system through a special construct named pointcut. This mechanism supports the modularization of crosscutting behavior; however, since the added interactions are not explicit in the source code, it is hard to ensure their correctness. To tackle this problem, this paper presents a rigorous coverage analysis approach to ensure exercising the logic of each advice - statements, branches, and def-use pairs - at each affected join point. To make this analysis possible, a structural model based on Java bytecode - called PointCut-based Del-Use Graph (PCDU) - is proposed, along with three integration testing criteria. Theoretical, empirical, and exploratory studies involving 12 aspect-oriented programs and several fault examples present evidence of the feasibility and effectiveness of the proposed approach. (C) 2010 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

A Road Following Approach Using Artificial Neural Networks Combinations

Navigation is a broad topic that has been receiving considerable attention from the mobile robotic community over the years. In order to execute autonomous driving in outdoor urban environments it is necessary to identify parts of the terrain that can be traversed and parts that should be avoided. This paper describes an analyses of terrain identification based on different visual information using a MLP artificial neural network and combining responses of many classifiers. Experimental tests using a vehicle and a video camera have been conducted in real scenarios to evaluate the proposed approach.

Formal validation of automated policy refinement in the management of network security systems

Policy hierarchies and automated policy refinement are powerful approaches to simplify administration of security services in complex network environments. A crucial issue for the practical use of these approaches is to ensure the validity of the policy hierarchy, i.e. since the policy sets for the lower levels are automatically derived from the abstract policies (defined by the modeller), we must be sure that the derived policies uphold the high-level ones. This paper builds upon previous work on Model-based Management, particularly on the Diagram of Abstract Subsystems approach, and goes further to propose a formal validation approach for the policy hierarchies yielded by the automated policy refinement process. We establish general validation conditions for a multi-layered policy model, i.e. necessary and sufficient conditions that a policy hierarchy must satisfy so that the lower-level policy sets are valid refinements of the higher-level policies according to the criteria of consistency and completeness. Relying upon the validation conditions and upon axioms about the model representativeness, two theorems are proved to ensure compliance between the resulting system behaviour and the abstract policies that are modelled.

Thermodynamic Stabillity of Hydrogen-Bonded Systems in Polar and Nonpolar Environments

The thermodynamic properties of a selected set of benchmark hydrogen-bonded systems (acetic acid dimer and the complexes of acetic acid with acetamide and methanol) was studied with the goal of obtaining detailed information on solvent effects on the hydrogen-bonded interactions using water, chloroform, and n-heptane as representatives for a wide range in the dielectric constant. Solvent effects were investigated using both explicit and implicit solvation models. For the explicit description of the solvent, molecular dynamics and Monte Carlo simulations in the isothermal isobaric (NpT) ensemble combined with the free energy perturbation technique were performed to determine solvation free energies. Within the implicit solvation approach, the polarizable continuum model and the conductor-like screening model were applied. Combination of gas phase results with the results obtained from the different solvation models through an appropriate thermodynamic cycle allows estimation of complexation free energies, enthalpies, and the respective entropic contributions in solution. Owing to the strong solvation effects of water the cyclic acetic acid dimer is not stable in aqueous solution. In less polar solvents the double hydrogen bond structure of the acetic acid dimer remains stable. This finding is in agreement with previous theoretical and experimental results. A similar trend as for the acetic acid dimer is also observed for the acetamide complex. The methanol complex was found to be thermodynamically unstable in gas phase as well as in any of the three solvents. (C) 2010 Wiley Periodicals, Inc. J Comput Chem 31: 2046-2055, 2010