Idiosyncratic volatility and the pricing of poorly-diversified portfolios

This article examines the role of idiosyncratic volatility in explaining the cross-sectional variation of size- and value-sorted portfolio returns. We show that the premium for bearing idiosyncratic volatility varies inversely with the number of stocks included in the portfolios. This conclusion is robust within various multifactor models based on size, value, past performance, liquidity and total volatility and also holds within an ICAPM specification of the risk–return relationship. Our findings thus indicate that investors demand an additional return for bearing the idiosyncratic volatility of poorly-diversified portfolios.

The interpretation and use of biases in decadal climate predictions

Decadal climate predictions exhibit large biases, which are often subtracted and forgotten. However, understanding the causes of bias is essential to guide efforts to improve prediction systems, and may offer additional benefits. Here the origins of biases in decadal predictions are investigated, including whether analysis of these biases might provide useful information. The focus is especially on the lead-time-dependent bias tendency. A “toy” model of a prediction system is initially developed and used to show that there are several distinct contributions to bias tendency. Contributions from sampling of internal variability and a start-time-dependent forcing bias can be estimated and removed to obtain a much improved estimate of the true bias tendency, which can provide information about errors in the underlying model and/or errors in the specification of forcings. It is argued that the true bias tendency, not the total bias tendency, should be used to adjust decadal forecasts. The methods developed are applied to decadal hindcasts of global mean temperature made using the Hadley Centre Coupled Model, version 3 (HadCM3), climate model, and it is found that this model exhibits a small positive bias tendency in the ensemble mean. When considering different model versions, it is shown that the true bias tendency is very highly correlated with both the transient climate response (TCR) and non–greenhouse gas forcing trends, and can therefore be used to obtain observationally constrained estimates of these relevant physical quantities.

The real-time optimisation of DNO owned storage devices on the LV network for peak reduction

Energy storage is a potential alternative to conventional network reinforcementof the low voltage (LV) distribution network to ensure the grid’s infrastructure remainswithin its operating constraints. This paper presents a study on the control of such storagedevices, owned by distribution network operators. A deterministic model predictive control (MPC) controller and a stochastic receding horizon controller (SRHC) are presented, wherethe objective is to achieve the greatest peak reduction in demand, for a given storagedevice specification, taking into account the high level of uncertainty in the prediction of LV demand. The algorithms presented in this paper are compared to a standard set-pointcontroller and bench marked against a control algorithm with a perfect forecast. A specificcase study, using storage on the LV network, is presented, and the results of each algorithmare compared. A comprehensive analysis is then carried out simulating a large number of LV networks of varying numbers of households. The results show that the performance of each algorithm is dependent on the number of aggregated households. However, on a typical aggregation, the novel SRHC algorithm presented in this paper is shown to outperform each of the comparable storage control techniques.

Concessionary nature of public-private partnerships in Russia and Kazakhstan: a critical review

This article provides a critical overview of Public-Private Partnerships (PPPs) in Russia and Kazakhstan and examines the rationale underpinning such partnerships. The analysis discusses the reasons why governments in Russia and Kazakhstan focus principally on concessions as a form of PPP and goes on to provide a critical assessment of the key approaches and situational factors relating to concessions in these two countries. The article finds that external globalization impulses pressed Russia and Kazakhstan to align their policies and institutions with western orthodoxy and perceived international best practice. An ever-increasing emphasis on use of PPPs has been a key feature of this alignment. However, the governments of Russia and Kazakhstan have increasingly resorted to concessions as progress with the development and implementation of Western style PPP models has stalled. This article concludes that the governments of Russia and Kazakhstan have demonstrated an overly optimistic approach to PPP and as a result may have substantially understated their overall concessional risks and costs. Features of Russian and Kazakhstani PPP arrangements such as ambiguity in output specification and extensive reliance on government subsidies, combined with lack of expertise of private partners, may significantly decrease concession benefits.

Autonomy and the socialisation of architects

The socio-cultural production of architects' identities, and their professional personas, is a lively source of continuing debate. At one extreme, there is the claim to autonomy that highlights the distinctiveness of architecture and its cultural and disciplinary specificity. This view is challenged by those who emphasise architects' dependence, for acting and actions, on their embeddedness into collective, social, settings and relationships. In the paper, we consider what it may mean to be ‘autonomous of’ and ‘dependent on’ in relation to the actions of architects. There is limited specification in architectural writings about what autonomy and dependence are, and we suggest that there is a need not to discount such terms, but to reformulate them by recognising that the socially constructed self is an integral part of individual action. In this respect, we seek to amplify, and evaluate, the concept of relational autonomy that distances the notion of autonomy from individualistic, under-socialised, accounts of architects and their practices. Referring to three empirical examples of practice, we amplify this understanding by, first, outlining what a relational autonomous approach to architecture might entail, and, secondly, assessing how far it may enable a conception of the practices of architects in ways whereby, following Tony Fry's observations, they are conceived as much broader than ‘the specificity of any particular activity’ that expresses their existence.

The co-development of technology and new buildings: incorporating building integrated photovoltaics

Current approaches for the reduction of carbon emissions in buildings are often predicated on the integration of renewable technologies into building projects. Building integrated photovoltaics (BIPV) is one of these technologies and brings its own set of challenges and problems with a resulting mutual articulation of this technology and the building. A Social Construction of Technology (SCOT) approach explores how negotiations between informal groups of project actors with shared interests shape the ongoing specification of both BIPV and the building. Six main groups with different interests were found to be involved in the introduction of BIPV (Cost Watchers, Design Aesthetes, Green Guardians, Design Optimizers, Generation Maximizers and Users). Their involvement around three sets of issues (design changes from lack of familiarity with the technology, misunderstandings from unfamiliar interdependencies of trades and the effects of standard firm procedure) is followed. Findings underline how BIPV requires a level of integration that typically spans different work packages and how standard contractual structures inhibit the smooth incorporation of BIPV. Successful implementation is marked by ongoing (re-)design of both the building and the technology as informal fluid groups of project actors with shared interests address the succession of problems which arise in the process of implementation.

Communicating thematic data quality with web map services

Geospatial information of many kinds, from topographic maps to scientific data, is increasingly being made available through web mapping services. These allow georeferenced map images to be served from data stores and displayed in websites and geographic information systems, where they can be integrated with other geographic information. The Open Geospatial Consortium’s Web Map Service (WMS) standard has been widely adopted in diverse communities for sharing data in this way. However, current services typically provide little or no information about the quality or accuracy of the data they serve. In this paper we will describe the design and implementation of a new “quality-enabled” profile of WMS, which we call “WMS-Q”. This describes how information about data quality can be transmitted to the user through WMS. Such information can exist at many levels, from entire datasets to individual measurements, and includes the many different ways in which data uncertainty can be expressed. We also describe proposed extensions to the Symbology Encoding specification, which include provision for visualizing uncertainty in raster data in a number of different ways, including contours, shading and bivariate colour maps. We shall also describe new open-source implementations of the new specifications, which include both clients and servers.

Time is of the essence: a selective review of the fall and rise of brief therapy research

For compelling reasons of equity and the advance of public health, brief psychotherapy has become the dominant format in both practice and research. One consequence of this is the apparent decline of a distinct stream of brief therapy research. However, much of the agenda formerly identified with that research stream is of increasing importance to the field. Time is indeed of the essence in current psychotherapy research. For example, factors conducive to the time efficiency of brief psychodynamic therapy have been described recently. The important question ‘How much therapy is enough?’ has been addressed by studies inspired by the dose-response analysis of Howard and colleagues. The value of ultra-brief interventions has been examined. These issues are considered in a selective review, drawing in particular on the work of the Sheffield/Leeds psychotherapy of depression research group. This research treats the number of treatment sessions as an independent variable, thereby providing a causal analysis of the dose-response relationship over a range from two to 16 sessions, illuminated by a comparative analysis of change processes in treatments of different durations. Its results enable some specification of the extent and nature of incremental benefit derived from additional sessions in the psychotherapy of depression.

Dynamical properties of S-gap shifts and other shift spaces

We study the dynamical properties of certain shift spaces. To help study these properties we introduce two new classes of shifts, namely boundedly supermultiplicative (BSM) shifts and balanced shifts. It turns out that any almost specified shift is both BSM and balanced, and any balanced shift is BSM. However, as we will demonstrate, there are examples of shifts which are BSM but not balanced. We also study the measure theoretic properties of balanced shifts. We show that a shift space admits a Gibbs state if and only if it is balanced. Restricting ourselves to S-gap shifts, we relate certain dynamical properties of an S-gap shift to combinatorial properties from expansions in non-integer bases. This identification allows us to use the machinery from expansions in non-integer bases to give straightforward constructions of S -gap shifts with certain desirable properties. We show that for any q∈(0,1) there is an S-gap shift which has the specification property and entropy q . We also use this identification to address the question, for a given q∈(0,1), how many S-gap shifts exist with entropy q? For certain exceptional values of q there is a unique S-gap shift with this entropy.

Comparison of the portion size and frequency of consumption of 156 foods across seven European countries: insights from the Food4ME study

There are no standardised serving/portion sizes defined for foods consumed in the European Union (EU). Typical serving sizes can deviate significantly from the 100 g/100 ml labelling specification required by the EU legislation. Where the nutritional value of a portion is specified, the portion size is determined by the manufacturers. Our objective was to investigate the potential for standardising portion sizes for specific foods, thereby ensuring complementarity across countries. We compared portion size for 156 food items measured using a food frequency questionnaire across the seven countries participating in the Food4me study. The probability of consuming a food and the frequency of consumption differed across countries for 93% and 58% of the foods, respectively. However, the individual country mean portion size differed from the average across countries in only 16% of comparisons. Thus, although dietary choices vary markedly across countries, there is much less variation in portion sizes. Our results highlight the potential for standardisation of portion sizes on nutrition labels in the EU

Early Development and Putative Primordial Germ Cells Characterization in Dogs

Contents Previously, three distinct populations of putative primordial germ cells (PGCs), namely gonocytes, intermediate cells and pre-spermatogonia, have been described in the human foetal testis. According to our knowledge, these PGCs have not been studied in any other species. The aim of our study was to identify similar PGC populations in canine embryos. First, we develop a protocol for canine embryo isolation. Following our protocol, 15 canine embryos at 21-25 days of pregnancy were isolated by ovaryhysterectomy surgery. Our data indicate that dramatic changes occur in canine embryo development and PGCs specification between 21 to 25 days of gestation. At that moment, only two PGC populations with distinct morphology can be identified by histological analyses. Cell population 1 presented round nuclei with prominent nucleolus and a high nuclear to cytoplasm ratio, showing gonocyte morphology. Cell population 2 was often localized at the periphery of the testicular cords and presented typical features of PGC. Both germ cell populations were positively immunostained with anti-human OCT-4 antibody. However, at day 25, all cells of population 1 reacted positively with OCT-4, whereas in population 2, fewer cells were positive for this marker. These two PGCs populations present morphological features similar to gonocytes and intermediate cells from human foetal testis. It is expected that a population of pre-spermatogonia would be observed at later stages of canine foetus development. We also showed that anti-human OCT-4 antibody can be useful to identify canine PGC in vivo.

Fault Coverage-Driven Incremental Test Generation

In this paper, we consider a classical problem of complete test generation for deterministic finite-state machines (FSMs) in a more general setting. The first generalization is that the number of states in implementation FSMs can even be smaller than that of the specification FSM. Previous work deals only with the case when the implementation FSMs are allowed to have the same number of states as the specification FSM. This generalization provides more options to the test designer: when traditional methods trigger a test explosion for large specification machines, tests with a lower, but yet guaranteed, fault coverage can still be generated. The second generalization is that tests can be generated starting with a user-defined test suite, by incrementally extending it until the desired fault coverage is achieved. Solving the generalized test derivation problem, we formulate sufficient conditions for test suite completeness weaker than the existing ones and use them to elaborate an algorithm that can be used both for extending user-defined test suites to achieve the desired fault coverage and for test generation. We present the experimental results that indicate that the proposed algorithm allows obtaining a trade-off between the length and fault coverage of test suites.

Upgrading a TCABR data analysis and acquisition system for remote participation using Java, XML, RCP and modern client/server communication/authentication

The TCABR data analysis and acquisition system has been upgraded to support a joint research programme using remote participation technologies. The architecture of the new system uses Java language as programming environment. Since application parameters and hardware in a joint experiment are complex with a large variability of components, requirements and specification solutions need to be flexible and modular, independent from operating system and computer architecture. To describe and organize the information on all the components and the connections among them, systems are developed using the extensible Markup Language (XML) technology. The communication between clients and servers uses remote procedure call (RPC) based on the XML (RPC-XML technology). The integration among Java language, XML and RPC-XML technologies allows to develop easily a standard data and communication access layer between users and laboratories using common software libraries and Web application. The libraries allow data retrieval using the same methods for all user laboratories in the joint collaboration, and the Web application allows a simple graphical user interface (GUI) access. The TCABR tokamak team in collaboration with the IPFN (Instituto de Plasmas e Fusao Nuclear, Instituto Superior Tecnico, Universidade Tecnica de Lisboa) is implementing this remote participation technologies. The first version was tested at the Joint Experiment on TCABR (TCABRJE), a Host Laboratory Experiment, organized in cooperation with the IAEA (International Atomic Energy Agency) in the framework of the IAEA Coordinated Research Project (CRP) on ""Joint Research Using Small Tokamaks"". (C) 2010 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Studies of aberrant phyllotaxy1 Mutants of Maize Indicate Complex Interactions between Auxin and Cytokinin Signaling in the Shoot Apical Meristem

One of the most fascinating aspects of plant morphology is the regular geometric arrangement of leaves and flowers, called phyllotaxy. The shoot apical meristem (SAM) determines these patterns, which vary depending on species and developmental stage. Auxin acts as an instructive signal in leaf initiation, and its transport has been implicated in phyllotaxy regulation in Arabidopsis (Arabidopsis thaliana). Altered phyllotactic patterns are observed in a maize (Zea mays) mutant, aberrant phyllotaxy1 (abph1, also known as abphyl1), and ABPH1 encodes a cytokinin-inducible type A response regulator, suggesting that cytokinin signals are also involved in the mechanism by which phyllotactic patterns are established. Therefore, we investigated the interaction between auxin and cytokinin signaling in phyllotaxy. Treatment of maize shoots with a polar auxin transport inhibitor, 1-naphthylphthalamic acid, strongly reduced ABPH1 expression, suggesting that auxin or its polar transport is required for ABPH1 expression. Immunolocalization of the PINFORMED1 (PIN1) polar auxin transporter revealed that PIN1 expression marks leaf primordia in maize, similarly to Arabidopsis. Interestingly, maize PIN1 expression at the incipient leaf primordium was greatly reduced in abph1 mutants. Consistently, auxin levels were reduced in abph1, and the maize PIN1 homolog was induced not only by auxin but also by cytokinin treatments. Our results indicate distinct roles for ABPH1 as a negative regulator of SAM size and a positive regulator of PIN1 expression. These studies highlight a complex interaction between auxin and cytokinin signaling in the specification of phyllotactic patterns and suggest an alternative model for the generation of altered phyllotactic patterns in abph1 mutants. We propose that reduced auxin levels and PIN1 expression in abph1 mutant SAMs delay leaf initiation, contributing to the enlarged SAM and altered phyllotaxy of these mutants.

Formalization of an architectural model for exception handling coordination based on CA action concepts

Architectures based on Coordinated Atomic action (CA action) concepts have been used to build concurrent fault-tolerant systems. This conceptual model combines concurrent exception handling with action nesting to provide a general mechanism for both enclosing interactions among system components and coordinating forward error recovery measures. This article presents an architectural model to guide the formal specification of concurrent fault-tolerant systems. This architecture provides built-in Communicating Sequential Processes (CSPs) and predefined channels to coordinate exception handling of the user-defined components. Hence some safety properties concerning action scoping and concurrent exception handling can be proved by using the FDR (Failure Divergence Refinement) verification tool. As a result, a formal and general architecture supporting software fault tolerance is ready to be used and proved as users define components with normal and exceptional behaviors. (C) 2010 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.