Predicción espacio-temporal de la irradiancia solar global a corto plazo en España mediante geoestadística y redes neuronales artificiales

El enriquecimiento del conocimiento sobre la Irradiancia Solar (IS) a nivel de superficie terrestre, así como su predicción, cobran gran interés para las Energías Renovables (ER) - Energía Solar (ES)-, y para distintas aplicaciones industriales o ecológicas. En el ámbito de las ER, el uso óptimo de la ES implica contar con datos de la IS en superficie que ayuden tanto, en la selección de emplazamientos para instalaciones de ES, como en su etapa de diseño (dimensionar la producción) y, finalmente, en su explotación. En este último caso, la observación y la predicción es útil para el mercado energético, la planificación y gestión de la energía (generadoras y operadoras del sistema eléctrico), especialmente en los nuevos contextos de las redes inteligentes de transporte. A pesar de la importancia estratégica de contar con datos de la IS, especialmente los observados por sensores de IS en superficie (los que mejor captan esta variable), estos no siempre están disponibles para los lugares de interés ni con la resolución espacial y temporal deseada. Esta limitación se une a la necesidad de disponer de predicciones a corto plazo de la IS que ayuden a la planificación y gestión de la energía. Se ha indagado y caracterizado las Redes de Estaciones Meteorológicas (REM) existentes en España que publican en internet sus observaciones, focalizando en la IS. Se han identificado 24 REM (16 gubernamentales y 8 redes voluntarios) que aglutinan 3492 estaciones, convirtiéndose éstas en las fuentes de datos meteorológicos utilizados en la tesis. Se han investigado cinco técnicas de estimación espacial de la IS en intervalos de 15 minutos para el territorio peninsular (3 técnicas geoestadísticas, una determinística y el método HelioSat2 basado en imágenes satelitales) con distintas configuraciones espaciales. Cuando el área de estudio tiene una adecuada densidad de observaciones, el mejor método identificado para estimar la IS es el Kriging con Regresión usando variables auxiliares -una de ellas la IS estimada a partir de imágenes satelitales-. De este modo es posible estimar espacialmente la IS más allá de los 25 km identificados en la bibliografía. En caso contrario, se corrobora la idoneidad de utilizar estimaciones a partir de sensores remotos cuando la densidad de observaciones no es adecuada. Se ha experimentado con el modelado de Redes Neuronales Artificiales (RNA) para la predicción a corto plazo de la IS utilizando observaciones próximas (componentes espaciales) en sus entradas y, los resultados son prometedores. Así los niveles de errores disminuyen bajo las siguientes condiciones: (1) cuando el horizonte temporal de predicción es inferior o igual a 3 horas, las estaciones vecinas que se incluyen en el modelo deben encentrarse a una distancia máxima aproximada de 55 km. Esto permite concluir que las RNA son capaces de aprender cómo afectan las condiciones meteorológicas vecinas a la predicción de la IS. ABSTRACT ABSTRACT The enrichment of knowledge about the Solar Irradiance (SI) at Earth's surface and its prediction, have a high interest for Renewable Energy (RE) - Solar Energy (SE) - and for various industrial and environmental applications. In the field of the RE, the optimal use of the SE involves having SI surface to help in the selection of sites for facilities ES, in the design stage (sizing energy production), and finally on their production. In the latter case, the observation and prediction is useful for the market, planning and management of the energy (generators and electrical system operators), especially in new contexts of smart transport networks (smartgrid). Despite the strategic importance of SI data, especially those observed by sensors of SI at surface (the ones that best measure this environmental variable), these are not always available to the sights and the spatial and temporal resolution desired. This limitation is bound to the need for short-term predictions of the SI to help planning and energy management. It has been investigated and characterized existing Networks of Weather Stations (NWS) in Spain that share its observations online, focusing on SI. 24 NWS have been identified (16 government and 8 volunteer networks) that implies 3492 stations, turning it into the sources of meteorological data used in the thesis. We have investigated five technical of spatial estimation of SI in 15 minutes to the mainland (3 geostatistical techniques and HelioSat2 a deterministic method based on satellite images) with different spatial configurations. When the study area has an adequate density of observations we identified the best method to estimate the SI is the regression kriging with auxiliary variables (one of them is the SI estimated from satellite images. Thus it is possible to spatially estimate the SI beyond the 25 km identified in the literature. Otherwise, when the density of observations is inadequate the appropriateness is using the estimates values from remote sensing. It has been experimented with Artificial Neural Networks (ANN) modeling for predicting the short-term future of the SI using observations from neighbor’s weather stations (spatial components) in their inputs, and the results are promising. The error levels decrease under the following conditions: (1) when the prediction horizon is less or equal than 3 hours the best models are the ones that include data from the neighboring stations (at a maximum distance of 55 km). It is concluded that the ANN is able to learn how weather conditions affect neighboring prediction of IS at such Spatio-temporal horizons.

Resilence, rural development and suistainable management: a working with people model approach

Nowadays, it has become evident the need to seek sustainable development models that address challenges arising in a variety of contexts. The resilience concept appears connected to the ability of people to cope with adversities that inevitably arise due to context dynamics, at different spatial and temporal scales. This concept is related to the model known as Working With People (WWP), focused on rural development projects planning, management and evaluation, from the integration of three dimensions: technical-entrepreneurial, ethical-social and political-contextual. The research reported is part of the RETHINK European Project, whose overall aim is farm modernization and rural resilience. The resilience concept has been analyzed, in the scope of rural development projects management, and a relationship with the WWP model has been established. To this end, a thorough review of the scientific literature concerning this topic has been addressed, in order to develop the state of the art of the different concepts and models involved. A conceptual proposal for the integration of resilience in rural development projects sustainable management, through the three-dimensional WWP model is presented.

Plant β-diversity i in human-altered forest ecosystems: the importance of the structural, spatial, and topographical characteristics of stands in patterning plant species assemblages

An understanding of spatial patterns of plant species diversity and the factors that drive those patterns is critical for the development of appropriate biodiversity management in forest ecosystems. We studied the spatial organization of plants species in human- modified and managed oak forests (primarily, Quercus faginea) in the Central Pre- Pyrenees, Spain. To test whether plant community assemblages varied non-randomly across the spatial scales, we used multiplicative diversity partitioning based on a nested hierarchical design of three increasingly coarser spatial scales (transect, stand, region). To quantify the importance of the structural, spatial, and topographical characteristics of stands in patterning plant species assemblages and identify the determinants of plant diversity patterns, we used canonical ordination. We observed a high contribution of ˟-diversity to total -diversity and found ˟-diversity to be higher and ˞-diversity to be lower than expected by random distributions of individuals at different spatial scales. Results, however, partly depended on the weighting of rare and abundant species. Variables expressing the historical management intensities of the stand such as mean stand age, the abundance of the dominant tree species (Q. faginea), age structure of the stand, and stand size were the main factors that explained the compositional variation in plant communities. The results indicate that (1) the structural, spatial, and topographical characteristics of the forest stands have the greatest effect on diversity patterns, (2) forests in landscapes that have different land use histories are environmentally heterogeneous and, therefore, can experience high levels of compositional differentiation, even at local scales (e.g., within the same stand). Maintaining habitat heterogeneity at multiple spatial scales should be considered in the development of management plans for enhancing plant diversity and related functions in human-altered forests

Evaluating the spatial and social equity effects of road pricing in the European urban context: the Madrid Metropolitan Area.

The paper explores the spatial and social impacts arising from implementation of a road-pricing scheme in the Madrid Metropolitan Area (MMA). Our analytical focus is on understanding the effects of the scheme on the transport accessibility of different social groups within the MMA. We define an evaluation framework to appraise the accessibility of different districts within the MMA in terms of the actual and perceived cost of using the road infrastructure "before" and "after" the implementation of the scheme. The framework was developed using quantitative survey data and qualitative data from focus group discussions with residents. We then simulated user behaviors (mode and route choice) based on the empirical evidence from a travel demand model for the MMA. The results from our simulation model demonstrated that implementation of the toll on the orbital metropolitan motorways (M40, M30, for example) decreases accessibility, mostly in the districts where there are no viable public transport alternatives. Our key finding is that the economic burden of the road-pricing scheme particularly affects unskilled and lower income individuals living in the south of the MMA. Consequently lower income people reduce their use of tolled roads and have to find new arrangements for these trips: i.e. switch to the public transport, spend double the time for their commuter trips or stay at home. The results of our research could be applicable more widely for anyone wishing to better understand the important relationship between increased transport cost and social equity, especially where there is an intention to introduce similar road-pricing schemes within the urban context.

Analysis of Contributions to NO2 Ambient Air Quality Levels in Madrid City (Spain) through Modeling. Implications for the Development of Policies and Air Quality Monitoring

As environmental standards become more stringent (e.g. European Directive 2008/50/EC), more reliable and sophisticated modeling tools are needed to simulate measures and plans that may effectively tackle air quality exceedances, common in large cities across Europe, particularly for NO2. Modeling air quality in urban areas is rather complex since observed concentration values are a consequence of the interaction of multiple sources and processes that involve a wide range of spatial and temporal scales. Besides a consistent and robust multi-scale modeling system, comprehensive and flexible emission inventories are needed. This paper discusses the application of the WRF-SMOKE-CMAQ system to the Madrid city (Spain) to assess the contribution of the main emitting sectors in the region. A detailed emission inventory was compiled for this purpose. This inventory relies on bottom-up methods for the most important sources. It is coupled with the regional traffic model and it makes use of an extensive database of industrial, commercial and residential combustion plants. Less relevant sources are downscaled from national or regional inventories. This paper reports the methodology and main results of the source apportionment study performed to understand the origin of pollution (main sectors and geographical areas) and define clear targets for the abatement strategy. Finally the structure of the air quality monitoring is analyzed and discussed to identify options to improve the monitoring strategy not only in the Madrid city but the whole metropolitan area.

Functional organization of spatial and nonspatial working memory processing within the human lateral frontal cortex

The present study used functional magnetic resonance imaging to demonstrate that performance of visual spatial and visual nonspatial working memory tasks involve the same regions of the lateral prefrontal cortex when all factors unrelated to the type of stimulus material are appropriately controlled. These results provide evidence that spatial and nonspatial working memory may not be mediated, respectively, by mid-dorsolateral and mid-ventrolateral regions of the frontal lobe, as widely assumed, and support the alternative notion that specific regions of the lateral prefrontal cortex make identical executive functional contributions to both spatial and nonspatial working memory.

Centrosome positioning and directionality of cell movements

In several cell types, an intriguing correlation exists between the position of the centrosome and the direction of cell movement: the centrosome is located behind the leading edge, suggesting that it serves as a steering device for directional movement. A logical extension of this suggestion is that a change in the direction of cell movement is preceded by a reorientation, or shift, of the centrosome in the intended direction of movement. We have used a fusion protein of green fluorescent protein (GFP) and γ-tubulin to label the centrosome in migrating amoebae of Dictyostelium discoideum, allowing us to determine the relationship of centrosome positioning and the direction of cell movement with high spatial and temporal resolution in living cells. We find that the extension of a new pseudopod in a migrating cell precedes centrosome repositioning. An average of 12 sec elapses between the initiation of pseudopod extension and reorientation of the centrosome. If no reorientation occurs within approximately 30 sec, the pseudopod is retracted. Thus the centrosome does not direct a cell’s migration. However, its repositioning stabilizes a chosen direction of movement, most probably by means of the microtubule system.

On the Role of Myosin-II in Cytokinesis: Division of Dictyostelium Cells under Adhesive and Nonadhesive Conditions

We have investigated the role of myosin in cytokinesis in Dictyostelium cells by examining cells under both adhesive and nonadhesive conditions. On an adhesive surface, both wild-type and myosin-null cells undergo the normal processes of mitotic rounding, cell elongation, polar ruffling, furrow ingression, and separation of daughter cells. When cells are denied adhesion through culturing in suspension or on a hydrophobic surface, wild-type cells undergo these same processes. However, cells lacking myosin round up and polar ruffle, but fail to elongate, furrow, or divide. These differences show that cell division can be driven by two mechanisms that we term Cytokinesis A, which requires myosin, and Cytokinesis B, which is cell adhesion dependent. We have used these approaches to examine cells expressing a myosin whose two light chain-binding sites were deleted (ΔBLCBS-myosin). Although this myosin is a slower motor than wild-type myosin and has constitutively high activity due to the abolition of regulation by light-chain phosphorylation, cells expressing ΔBLCBS-myosin were previously shown to divide in suspension (Uyeda et al., 1996). However, we suspected their behavior during cytokinesis to be different from wild-type cells given the large alteration in their myosin. Surprisingly, ΔBLCBS-myosin undergoes relatively normal spatial and temporal changes in localization during mitosis. Furthermore, the rate of furrow progression in cells expressing a ΔBLCBS-myosin is similar to that in wild-type cells.

Cloning and functional expression of a cDNA encoding a pheromone gland-specific acyl-CoA Δ11-desaturase of the cabbage looper moth, Trichoplusia ni

Desaturation of coenzyme-A esters of saturated fatty acids is a common feature of sex pheromone biosynthetic pathways in the Lepidoptera. The enzymes that catalyze this step share several biochemical properties with the ubiquitous acyl-CoA Δ9-desaturases of animals and fungi, suggesting a common ancestral origin. Unlike metabolic acyl-CoA Δ9-desaturases, pheromone desaturases have evolved unusual regio- and stereoselective activities that contribute to the remarkable diversity of chemical structures used as pheromones in this large taxonomic group. In this report, we describe the isolation of a cDNA encoding a pheromone gland desaturase from the cabbage looper moth, Trichoplusia ni, a species in which all unsaturated pheromone products are produced via a Δ11Z-desaturation mechanism. The largest ORF of the ≈1,250-bp cDNA encodes a 349-aa apoprotein (PDesat-Tn Δ11Z) with a predicted molecular mass of 40,240 Da. Its hydrophobicity profile is similar overall to those of rat and yeast Δ9-desaturases, suggesting conserved transmembrane topology. A 182-aa core domain delimited by conserved histidine-rich motifs implicated in iron-binding and catalysis has 72 and 58% similarity (including conservative substitutions) to acyl-CoA Δ9Z-desaturases of rat and yeast, respectively. Northern blot analysis revealed an ≈1,250-nt PDesat-Tn Δ11Z mRNA that is consistent with the spatial and temporal distribution of Δ11-desaturase enzyme activity. Genetic transformation of a desaturase-deficient strain of the yeast Saccharomyces cerevisiae with an expression plasmid encoding PDesat-Tn Δ11Z resulted in complementation of the strain’s fatty acid auxotrophy and the production of Δ11Z-unsaturated fatty acids.

Dual control of LIF expression and LIF receptor function regulate Stat3 activation at the onset of uterine receptivity and embryo implantation

Leukemia inhibitory factor (LIF) expression in the uterus is essential for embryo implantation in mice. Here we describe the spatial and temporal regulation of LIF signaling in vivo by using tissues isolated from uteri on different days over the implantation period. During this time, LIF receptors are expressed predominantly in the luminal epithelium (LE) of the uterus. Isolated epithelium responds to LIF by phosphorylation and nuclear translocation of signal transducer and activator of transcription (Stat) 3, but not by an increase in mitogen-activated protein kinase levels. The related cytokines Il-6, ciliary neurotrophic factor, as well as epidermal growth factor, do not activate Stat3, although epidermal growth factor stimulates mitogen-activated protein kinase. In vivo Stat3 activation is induced by LIF alone, resulting in the localization of Stat3 specifically to the nuclei of the LE coinciding with the onset of uterine receptivity. The responsiveness of the LE to LIF is regulated temporally, with Stat activation being restricted to day 4 of pregnancy despite the presence of constant levels of LIF receptor throughout the preimplantation period. Uterine receptivity is therefore under dual control and is regulated by both the onset of LIF expression in the endometrial glands and the release from inhibition of receptor function in the LE.

Origin and evolution of circular waves and spirals in Dictyostelium discoideum territories.

Randomly distributed Dictyostelium discoideum cells form cooperative territories by signaling to each other with cAMP. Cells initiate the process by sending out pulsatile signals, which propagate as waves. With time, circular and spiral patterns form. We show that by adding spatial and temporal noise to the levels of an important regulator of external cAMP levels, the cAMP phosphodiesterase inhibitor, we can explain the natural progression of the system from randomly firing cells to circular waves whose symmetries break to form double- and single- or multi-armed spirals. When phosphodiesterase inhibitor is increased with time, mimicking experimental data, the wavelength of the spirals shortens, and a proportion of them evolve into pairs of connected spirals. We compare these results to recent experiments, finding that the temporal and spatial correspondence between experiment and model is very close.

Response of Catch-Per-Unit-Effort to Spatial and Environmental Factors: an Exploratory Data Analysis Using Generalized Additive Models

Understanding spatial distributions and how environmental conditions influence catch-per-unit-effort (CPUE) is important for increased fishing efficiency and sustainable fisheries management. This study investigated the relationship between CPUE, spatial factors, temperature, and depth using generalized additive models. Combinations of factors, and not one single factor, were frequently included in the best model. Parameters which best described CPUE varied by geographic region. The amount of variance, or deviance, explained by the best models ranged from a low of 29% (halibut, Charlotte region) to a high of 94% (sablefish, Charlotte region). Depth, latitude, and longitude influenced most species in several regions. On the broad geographic scale, depth was associated with CPUE for every species, except dogfish. Latitude and longitude influenced most species, except halibut (Areas 4 A/D), sablefish, and cod. Temperature was important for describing distributions of halibut in Alaska, arrowtooth flounder in British Columbia, dogfish, Alaska skate, and Aleutian skate. The species-habitat relationships revealed in this study can be used to create improved fishing and management strategies.

A high-resolution binocular video-oculography system: assessment of pupillary light reflex and detection of an early incomplete blink and an upward eye movement

Background: The pupillary light reflex characterizes the direct and consensual response of the eye to the perceived brightness of a stimulus. It has been used as indicator of both neurological and optic nerve pathologies. As with other eye reflexes, this reflex constitutes an almost instantaneous movement and is linked to activation of the same midbrain area. The latency of the pupillary light reflex is around 200 ms, although the literature also indicates that the fastest eye reflexes last 20 ms. Therefore, a system with sufficiently high spatial and temporal resolutions is required for accurate assessment. In this study, we analyzed the pupillary light reflex to determine whether any small discrepancy exists between the direct and consensual responses, and to ascertain whether any other eye reflex occurs before the pupillary light reflex. Methods: We constructed a binocular video-oculography system two high-speed cameras that simultaneously focused on both eyes. This was then employed to assess the direct and consensual responses of each eye using our own algorithm based on Circular Hough Transform to detect and track the pupil. Time parameters describing the pupillary light reflex were obtained from the radius time-variation. Eight healthy subjects (4 women, 4 men, aged 24–45) participated in this experiment. Results: Our system, which has a resolution of 15 microns and 4 ms, obtained time parameters describing the pupillary light reflex that were similar to those reported in previous studies, with no significant differences between direct and consensual reflexes. Moreover, it revealed an incomplete reflex blink and an upward eye movement at around 100 ms that may correspond to Bell’s phenomenon. Conclusions: Direct and consensual pupillary responses do not any significant temporal differences. The system and method described here could prove useful for further assessment of pupillary and blink reflexes. The resolution obtained revealed the existence reported here of an early incomplete blink and an upward eye movement.

The speech, spatial and qualities of hearing scale: tradução e adaptação cultural para o português europeu

A deficiência auditiva afecta milhões de pessoas em todo o mundo, originando vários problemas, nomeadamente a nível psicossocial, que comprometem a qualidade de vida do indivíduo. A deficiência auditiva influencia o comportamento, particularmente ao dificultar a comunicação. Com o avanço tecnológico, os produtos de apoio, em particular os aparelhos auditivos e o implante coclear, melhoram essa qualidade de vida, através da melhoria da comunicação. Com as escalas de avaliação determinamos o modo como a deficiência auditiva influencia a vida diária, com ou sem amplificação, e de que forma afecta o desempenho psicossocial, emocional ou profissional do indivíduo, sendo esta informação importante para determinar a necessidade e o sucesso de amplificação, independentemente do tipo e grau da deficiência auditiva. O objectivo do presente estudo foi a tradução e adaptação para a cultura portuguesa da escala The Speech, Spatial and Qualities of Hearing Scale (SSQ), desenvolvida por Stuart Gatehouse e William Noble em 2004. Este trabalho foi realizado nos centros auditivos da Widex Portugal. Após os procedimentos de tradução e retroversão, a versão portuguesa foi testada em 12 indivíduos, com idades compreendidas entre os 36 anos e os 80 anos, dos quais 6 utilizavam prótese auditiva há mais de um ano, um utilizava prótese há menos de um ano e 5 nunca tinham utilizado. Com a tradução e adaptação cultural para o Português Europeu do “Questionário sobre as Qualidades Espaciais do Discurso – SSQ”, contribuímos para uma melhor avaliação dos indivíduos que estejam, ou venham a estar, a cumprir programas de reabilitação auditiva.

Alteration of natural ³⁷Ar activity concentration in the subsurface by gas transport and water infiltration

High ³⁷Ar activity concentration in soil gas is proposed as a key evidence for the detection of underground nuclear explosion by the Comprehensive Nuclear Test-Ban Treaty. However, such a detection is challenged by the natural background of ³⁷Ar in the subsurface, mainly due to Ca activation by cosmic rays. A better understanding and improved capability to predict ³⁷Ar activity concentration in the subsurface and its spatial and temporal variability is thus required. A numerical model integrating ³⁷Ar production and transport in the subsurface is developed, including variable soil water content and water infiltration at the surface. A parameterized equation for ³⁷Ar production in the first 15 m below the surface is studied, taking into account the major production reactions and the moderation effect of soil water content. Using sensitivity analysis and uncertainty quantification, a realistic and comprehensive probability distribution of natural ³⁷Ar activity concentrations in soil gas is proposed, including the effects of water infiltration. Site location and soil composition are identified as the parameters allowing for a most effective reduction of the possible range of ³⁷Ar activity concentrations. The influence of soil water content on ³⁷Ar production is shown to be negligible to first order, while ³⁷Ar activity concentration in soil gas and its temporal variability appear to be strongly influenced by transient water infiltration events. These results will be used as a basis for practical CTBTO concepts of operation during an OSI.