Changes in reactive stratospheric gases due to a change in Brewer–Dobson circulation: results from a simple model

Amounts of source gases with stratospheric sinks (CFCs, N2O, CH4) are affected by changes in Brewer–Dobson circulation. Source gases and their degradation products are important for atmospheric chemistry and climate. With a simple model, we examine how amounts and lifetimes of source gases and products depend on speed of the circulation. Transient results differ from steady-state and stratospheric results differ from those for stratosphere plus troposphere. Increases in speed increase the stratospheric burden of source gases, but reduce products and reduce total burdens and lifetimes of source gases

Good machine performance in Turing’s imitation game

In this paper we consider transcripts which originated from a practical series of Turing’s Imitation Game which was held on 23rd June 2012 at Bletchley Park, England. In some cases the tests involved a 3-participant simultaneous comparison of two hidden entities whereas others were the result of a direct 2-participant interaction. Each of the transcripts considered here resulted in a human interrogator being fooled, by a machine, into concluding that they had been conversing with a human. Particular features of the conversation are highlighted, successful ploys on the part of each machine discussed and likely reasons for the interrogator being fooled are considered. Subsequent feedback from the interrogators involved is also included

Simple uncertainty frameworks for selecting weighting schemes and interpreting multimodel ensemble climate change experiments

Future climate change projections are often derived from ensembles of simulations from multiple global circulation models using heuristic weighting schemes. This study provides a more rigorous justification for this by introducing a nested family of three simple analysis of variance frameworks. Statistical frameworks are essential in order to quantify the uncertainty associated with the estimate of the mean climate change response. The most general framework yields the “one model, one vote” weighting scheme often used in climate projection. However, a simpler additive framework is found to be preferable when the climate change response is not strongly model dependent. In such situations, the weighted multimodel mean may be interpreted as an estimate of the actual climate response, even in the presence of shared model biases. Statistical significance tests are derived to choose the most appropriate framework for specific multimodel ensemble data. The framework assumptions are explicit and can be checked using simple tests and graphical techniques. The frameworks can be used to test for evidence of nonzero climate response and to construct confidence intervals for the size of the response. The methodology is illustrated by application to North Atlantic storm track data from the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project phase 5 (CMIP5) multimodel ensemble. Despite large variations in the historical storm tracks, the cyclone frequency climate change response is not found to be model dependent over most of the region. This gives high confidence in the response estimates. Statistically significant decreases in cyclone frequency are found on the flanks of the North Atlantic storm track and in the Mediterranean basin.

An experiment on subjective game valuations

We report experimental results on a prisoners' dilemma implemented in a way which allows us to elicit incentive−compatible valuations of the game. We test the hypothesis that players' valuations coincide with their Nash equilibrium earnings. Our results offer significantly less support for this hypothesis than for the prediction of Dominant Strategy (DS) play.

A simple syllogism-solving test: empirical findings and implications for g research

It has been reported that the ability to solve syllogisms is highly g-loaded. In the present study, using a self-administered shortened version of a syllogism-solving test, the BAROCO Short, we examined whether robust findings generated by previous research regarding IQ scores were also applicable to BAROCO Short scores. Five syllogism-solving problems were included in a questionnaire as part of a postal survey conducted by the Keio Twin Research Center. Data were collected from 487 pairs of twins (1021 individuals) who were Japanese junior high or high school students (ages 13–18) and from 536 mothers and 431 fathers. Four findings related to IQ were replicated: 1) The mean level increased gradually during adolescence, stayed unchanged from the 30s to the early 50s, and subsequently declined after the late 50s. 2) The scores for both children and parents were predicted by the socioeconomic status of the family. 3) The genetic effect increased, although the shared environmental effect decreased during progression from adolescence to adulthood. 4) Children's scores were genetically correlated with school achievement. These findings further substantiate the close association between syllogistic reasoning ability and g.

The Kasparov-World Game

Kasparov-World, initiated by Microsoft and also sponsored by First USA, was a novel correspondence game played on the World Wide Web at one ply per day. This was the first time that any group had attempted to form on the Web and then solve shared problems against fixed, short-term deadlines. The first author first became involved in his role as a Web consultant, observing the dynamics and effectiveness of the group. These are fully described, together with observations on the technological contribution and the second author's post-hoc computation of some relevant Endgame Tables.

Technical note: a simple procedure for removing temporal discontinuities in ERA-Interim upper stratospheric temperatures for use in nudged chemistry-climate model simulations

This note describes a simple procedure for removing unphysical temporal discontinuities in ERA-Interim upper stratospheric global mean temperatures in March 1985 and August 1998 that have arisen due to changes in satellite radiance data used in the assimilation. The derived temperature adjustments (offsets) are suitable for use in stratosphere-resolving chemistry-climate models that are nudged (relaxed) to ERA-Interim winds and temperatures. Simulations using a nudged version of the Canadian Middle Atmosphere Model (CMAM) show that the inclusion of the temperature adjustments produces temperature time series that are devoid of the large jumps in 1985 and 1998. Due to its strong temperature dependence, the simulated upper stratospheric ozone is also shown to vary smoothly in time, unlike in a nudged simulation without the adjustments where abrupt changes in ozone occur at the times of the temperature jumps. While the adjustments to the ERA-Interim temperatures remove significant artefacts in the nudged CMAM simulation, spurious transient effects that arise due to water vapour and persist for about 5 yr after the 1979 switch to ERA-Interim data are identified, underlining the need for caution when analysing trends in runs nudged to reanalyses.

Teaching programming to beginners in a massive open online course

The University of Reading’s first Massive Open Online Course (MOOC) “Begin Programming: Build your first mobile game” (#FLMobiGame) was offered in Autumn 2013 on the FutureLearn platform. This course used a simple Android game framework to present basic programming concepts to complete beginners. The course attracted wide interest from all age groups. The course presented opportunities and challenges to both participants and educators. While some participants had difficulties accessing content some others had trouble grasping the concepts and applying them in a real program. Managing forums was cumbersome with the limited facilities supported by the Beta-platform. A healthy community was formed around the course with the support of social media. The case study reported here is part of an ongoing research programme exploring participants’ MOOC engagement and experience using a grounded, ethnographical approach.

Type 2 diabetes and impaired glucose tolerance are associated with word memory source monitoring recollection deficits but not simple recognition familiarity deficits following water, low glycaemic load, and high glycaemic load breakfasts.

Isolated source monitoring recollection deficits indicate that abnormalities in glucose metabolism are not detrimental for global episodic memory processes. This enhances our understanding of how metabolic disorders are associated with memory impairments.

Simple prompts reduce inadvertent energy consumption from lighting in office buildings

Building designs regularly fail to achieve the anticipated levels of in-use energy consumption. The interaction of occupants with building controls is often cited as a key factor behind this discrepancy. This paper examines whether one factor in inadvertent energy consumption might be the appearance of post-completion errors (when an intended action is not taken because a primary goal has already been accomplished) in occupants’ interactions with building controls. Post-completion errors have been widely studied in human-computer interaction but the concept has not previously been applied to the interaction of occupants with building controls. Two experiments were carried out to examine the effect of incorporating two different types of simple prompt to reduce post-completion error in the use of light switches in office meeting rooms. Results showed that the prompts were effective and that occupants switched off lights when leaving the room more often when presented with a normative prompt than with a standard injunction. Additionally, an over reliance on PIR sensors to turn off lights after meetings was observed, which reduced their intended energy savings. We conclude that achieving low carbon buildings in practice is not solely a technological issue and that application of user-models from human-computer interaction will encourage appropriate occupant interaction with building controls and help reduce inadvertent energy consumption.

A simple framework for assessing the trade-off between the climate impact of aviation carbon dioxide emissions and contrails for a single flight

Persistent contrails are an important climate impact of aviation which could potentially be reduced by re-routing aircraft to avoid contrailing; however this generally increases both the flight length and its corresponding CO emissions. Here, we provide a simple framework to assess the trade-off between the climate impact of CO emissions and contrails for a single flight, in terms of the absolute global warming potential and absolute global temperature potential metrics for time horizons of 20, 50 and 100 years. We use the framework to illustrate the maximum extra distance (with no altitude changes) that can be added to a flight and still reduce its overall climate impact. Small aircraft can fly up to four times further to avoid contrailing than large aircraft. The results have a strong dependence on the applied metric and time horizon. Applying a conservative estimate of the uncertainty in the contrail radiative forcing and climate efficacy leads to a factor of 20 difference in the maximum extra distance that could be flown to avoid a contrail. The impact of re-routing on other climatically-important aviation emissions could also be considered in this framework.

Present simple and continuous: emergence of self-regulation and contextual sophistication in adolescent decision-making

Sophisticated, intentional decision-making is a hallmark of mature, self-aware behaviour. Although neural, psychological, interpersonal, and socioeconomic elements that contribute to such adaptive, foresighted behaviour mature and/or change throughout the life-span, here we concentrate on relevant maturational processes that take place during adolescence, a period of disproportionate developmental opportunity and risk. A brief, eclectic overview is presented of recent evidence, new challenges, and current thinking on the fundamental mechanisms that mature throughout adolescence to support adaptive, self-controlled decision-making. This is followed by a proposal for the putative contribution of frontostriatal mechanisms to the moment-to-moment assembly of evaluative heuristics that mediate increased decision-making sophistication, promoting the maturation of self-regulated behaviour through adolescence and young adulthood.

Folding of graphene slit like pore walls—a simple method of improving CO2 separation from mixtures with CH4 or N2

We report for the first time a detailed procedure for creating a simulation model of energetically stable, folded graphene-like pores and simulation results of CO2/CH4 and CO2/N2 separation using these structures. We show that folding of graphene structures is a very promising method to improve the separation of CO2 from mixtures with CH4 and N2. The separation properties of the analyzed materials are compared with carbon nanotubes having similar diameters or S/V ratio. The presented results have potential importance in the field of CO2 capture and sequestration.