On the estimation and comparison of short-rate models using the generalised method of moments

Subsequent to the influential paper of [Chan, K.C., Karolyi, G.A., Longstaff, F.A., Sanders, A.B., 1992. An empirical comparison of alternative models of the short-term interest rate. Journal of Finance 47, 1209-1227], the generalised method of moments (GMM) has been a popular technique for estimation and inference relating to continuous-time models of the short-term interest rate. GMM has been widely employed to estimate model parameters and to assess the goodness-of-fit of competing short-rate specifications. The current paper conducts a series of simulation experiments to document the bias and precision of GMM estimates of short-rate parameters, as well as the size and power of [Hansen, L.P., 1982. Large sample properties of generalised method of moments estimators. Econometrica 50, 1029-1054], J-test of over-identifying restrictions. While the J-test appears to have appropriate size and good power in sample sizes commonly encountered in the short-rate literature, GMM estimates of the speed of mean reversion are shown to be severely biased. Consequently, it is dangerous to draw strong conclusions about the strength of mean reversion using GMM. In contrast, the parameter capturing the levels effect, which is important in differentiating between competing short-rate specifications, is estimated with little bias. (c) 2006 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Long-term outcome of a school-based, universal approach to prevention of depression in adolescents

In this study. the authors examined the 2-, 3-, and 4-year outcomes of a school-based, universal approach to the prevention of adolescent depression. Despite initial short-term positive effects, these benefits were not maintained over time. Adolescents who completed the teacher-administered cognitive-behavioral intervention did not differ significantly from adolescents in the monitoring-control condition in terms of changes in depressive symptoms, problem solving, attributional style, or other indicators of psychopathology from preintervention to 4-year follow-up. Results were equivalent irrespective of initial level of depressive symptoms.

Nootropia : a user profiling model based on a self-organising term network

Artificial Immune Systems are well suited to the problem of using a profile representation of an individual’s or a group’s interests to evaluate documents. Nootropia is a user profiling model that exhibits similarities to models of the immune system that have been developed in the context of autopoietic theory. It uses a self-organising term network that can represent a user’s multiple interests and can adapt to both short-term variations and substantial changes in them. This allows Nootropia to drift, constantly following changes in the user’s multiple interests, and, thus, to become structurally coupled to the user.

Long-term modifications of coastal defences enhance marine biodiversity

Realization that hard coastal infrastructures support lower biodiversity than natural habitats has prompted a wealth of research seeking to identify design enhancements offering ecological benefits. Some studies showed that artificial structures could be modified to increase levels of diversity. Most studies, however, only considered the short-term ecological effects of such modifications, even though reliance on results from short-term studies may lead to serious misjudgements in conservation. In this study, a seven-year experiment examined how the addition of small pits to otherwise featureless seawalls may enhance the stocks of a highly-exploited limpet. Modified areas of the seawall supported enhanced stocks of limpets seven years after the addition of pits. Modified areas of the seawall also supported a community that differed in the abundance of littorinids, barnacles and macroalgae compared to the controls. Responses to different treatments (numbers and size of pits) were species-specific and, while some species responded directly to differences among treatments, others might have responded indirectly via changes in the distribution of competing species. This type of habitat enhancement can have positive long-lasting effects on the ecology of urban seascapes. Understanding of species interactions could be used to develop a rule-based approach to enhance biodiversity.

Long-term modifications of coastal defences enhance marine biodiversity

Realization that hard coastal infrastructures support lower biodiversity than natural habitats has prompted a wealth of research seeking to identify design enhancements offering ecological benefits. Some studies showed that artificial structures could be modified to increase levels of diversity. Most studies, however, only considered the short-term ecological effects of such modifications, even though reliance on results from short-term studies may lead to serious misjudgements in conservation. In this study, a seven-year experiment examined how the addition of small pits to otherwise featureless seawalls may enhance the stocks of a highly-exploited limpet. Modified areas of the seawall supported enhanced stocks of limpets seven years after the addition of pits. Modified areas of the seawall also supported a community that differed in the abundance of littorinids, barnacles and macroalgae compared to the controls. Responses to different treatments (numbers and size of pits) were species-specific and, while some species responded directly to differences among treatments, others might have responded indirectly via changes in the distribution of competing species. This type of habitat enhancement can have positive long-lasting effects on the ecology of urban seascapes. Understanding of species interactions could be used to develop a rule-based approach to enhance biodiversity.

New statin use and left ventricular structure: estimating long-term associations in the Multi-Ethnic Study of Atherosclerosis (MESA)

Thesis (Master's)--University of Washington, 2016-08

Challenges Facing Long Term Foster Carers: Exploration of the Nature of Psychoanalytic Parent/Carer Support

This research study investigates the role and impact of psychoanalytically-informed short-term parent work with long-term foster carers of looked-after children, in support of the foster placement. The study reflects on the data gathered from four child assessments and five foster families seen by a psychoanalytic child psychotherapist for four sessions each. It draws on psychoanalytic ideas from a range of theoretical traditions, exploring such concepts as trauma, defences, compulsion to repeat, psychological-mindedness, ‘container/contained’ (Bion) and ‘holding environment’ (Winnicott). One distinctive contribution of this research is what it adds to our already existing understanding of the defences (or responses) aroused in the carer when faced with the intense and distressing affect associated with the child’s early trauma; and the impact of this legacy of trauma on the child, on the carer and on the wider Social Services system. Applying Grounded Theory and psychoanalytically-informed clinical case study methodology to the research material, the study breaks down the data analysis into seven stages of coding, from the initial reading of the data to the eventual development of two key hypotheses. One of the predominant themes that emerged from the analysis was the carer’s capacity to remain focused on the child’s emotional needs and how this in turn was linked to the direction of the therapist’s focus. The successive analyses of the data culminated in the hypothesis that the more the therapist focused on the carer and the carer’s emotional states in the course of the parent work, the more the carer was enabled to focus on the child’s emotional needs. As the system of categories emerged according to the themes exemplified in the sessions, a particular focus of analysis became the concept of psychologicalmindedness, considered under several sub-categories: displaying insightful comments; awareness of the child’s bodily states; awareness of the child’s affect; the carer’s ability to recognize the child’s defences; and the carer’s ability to make links between the child’s current difficulties and the child’s past experiences. Through this analysis it became apparent that degree of psychological-mindedness was closely linked to the individual carer’s capacity to metabolize the child’s distressed and distressing communication. This in turn led to a deeper exploration of the situations that were particularly challenging for the carers: i.e., instances when the child was compelled to repeat past traumatic emotional states and as a result was communicating intense distress. This exploration eventually generated the second hypothesis: that in reaction to the child’s distress, the response of each carer could be plotted somewhere along a spectrum, from either distancing themselves from the child’s emotional state to seeking excessive closeness with the child (merging). The next stage of the analysis developed four new categories of carer responses to the distressed child: identification and distancing from the child; identification and merging with the child; the category that describes the carer’s psychologicalmindedness as being ‘impaired’; and ‘good enough’ caring. This then led to an exploration of the carer’s own defences at these most challenging times. This research demonstrates clearly that even within the short space of four sessions of weekly psychoanalytic parent work, it is possible to achieve significant improvement in a carer’s capacity to bear the child’s compulsion to repeat early traumas, and to help the carers become more emotionally available to provide the child with effective psychological parenting at such difficult and challenging times. Key words: looked-after children; long-term foster carers; psychoanalytic short-term parent work; trauma; compulsion to repeat; psychological-mindedness; empathy; defences; psychoanalytically-informed clinical case study research methodology; Grounded Theory research methodology.

Clinical trial designs of new medicinal products for treating schizophrenia: discussion of EMA's Guideline and a Better Long Term Trial Design

Background and Objectives: Schizophrenia is a severe chronic disease. Endpoint variables lack objectivity and the diagnostic criteria have evolved with time. In order to guide the development of new drugs, European Medicines Agency (EMA) issued a guideline on the clinical investigation of medicinal products for the treatment of schizophrenia. Methods: Authors reviewed and discussed the efficacy trial part of the Guideline. Results: The Guideline divides clinical efficacy trials into short-term trials and long-term trials. The short-term three-arm trial is recommended to replace the short-term two-arm active-controlled non-inferiority trial because the latter has sensitivity issues. The Guideline ultimately makes that three-arm trial a superiority trial. The Guideline discusses four types of long-term trial designs. The randomized withdrawal trial design has some disadvantages. Long-term two-arm active-controlled non-inferiority trial is not recommended due to the sensitivity issue. Extension of the short-term trial is only suitable for extension of the short-term two-arm active-controlled superiority trial. The Guideline suggests that a hybrid design of a randomized withdrawal trial incorporated into a long-term parallel trial might be optimal. However, such a design has some disadvantages and might be too complex to be carried out. Authors suggest instead a three-group long-term trial design, which could provide comparison between test drug and active comparator along with comparison between the test drug and placebo. This alternative could arguably be much easier to carry out compared with the hybrid design. Conclusions: The three-group long-term design merits further discussion and evaluation.

Effect of a weight loss program in obese adolescents: a long-term follow-up

Objectives: Obesity during adolescence is an increasing health problem in industrial countries. The comorbidities associated with obesity include important metabolic diseases. Methods: To analyze the effect of a weight-loss program, we recruited 12 obese, male adolescents before entering this program. We determined body weight measures at baseline, 6-week and 36-month follow-up. Also, the long-term changes of blood pressure, HbAlc, and CRP were evaluated. Twenty healthy age-matched adolescents served as controls. Results: Within the intervention group ((body mass index [BMI, kg/m²] > 95th percentile for age and sex, age 13-17 years) the BMI and BMI-standard deviation score [SDS] were significantly reduced in the 6-week follow-up after completing the weight loss program. However, the significant weight-reduction effect was not persistent until the 36-month follow-up. Conclusion: The 6-week weight-loss program had beneficial short-term effects on body weight, BMI, and BMI-SDS in obese adolescents, but these effects could not be maintained until the 36-month follow-up.

Does therapeutic writing help people with long-term conditions? Systematic review, realist synthesis and economic considerations

Background Writing therapy to improve physical or mental health can take many forms. The most researched model of therapeutic writing (TW) is unfacilitated, individual expressive writing (written emotional disclosure). Facilitated writing activities are less widely researched. Data sources Databases including: MEDLINE, EMBASE, PsychINFO, Linguistics and Language Behavior Abstracts, AMED, and CINHAL were searched from inception to March 2013. Review methods Four TW practitioners provided expert advice. Study procedures were conducted by one reviewer and checked by a second. Randomised controlled trials (RCTs) and non-randomised comparative studies were included. Quality was appraised using the Cochrane risk of bias tool. Unfacilitated and facilitated TW studies were analysed separately under ICD-10 chapter headings. Meta-analyses were performed where possible using Revman 5.2. Costs were estimated from an NHS perspective and three cost-consequence case studies were prepared. Realist synthesis followed RAMESES guidelines. Objectives To review the clinical and cost-effectiveness of TW for people with long-term health conditions (LTCs) compared to no writing, or other controls, reporting any relevant clinical outcomes. To conduct a realist synthesis to understand how TW might work, and for whom. Results From 14,658 unique citations, 284 full text papers were reviewed and 64 studies (58 RCTs) were included in the final effectiveness reviews. Five studies examined facilitated TW, these were extremely heterogeneous with unclear or high risk of bias, but suggested that facilitated TW interventions may be beneficial in individual LTCs. Unfacilitated expressive writing was examined in 59 studies of variable, or unreported, quality. Overall there was very little or no evidence of any benefit reported in the following conditions (number of studies): HIV (six); breast cancer (eight); gynaecological and genitourinary cancers (five); mental health (five); asthma (four); psoriasis (three); chronic pain (four). In inflammatory arthropathies (six) there was a reduction in disease severity (n= 191, standardised mean difference (SMD) - 0.61 [95% confidence intervals (95% CI) -0.96, -0.26]) in the short term on meta-analysis of four studies. For all other LTCs there was either no, or sparse, data with no, or inconsistent, evidence of benefit. Meta-analyses conducted across all the LTCs provided no evidence that unfacilitated EW had any effect on depression at short term (n= 1,563, SMD -0.06, 95% CI -0.29 to 0.17, substantial heterogeneity), or long term (n= 778, SMD-0.04 95% CI -0.18 to 0.10, little heterogeneity) follow up, or on anxiety, physiological or biomarker-based outcomes. One study reported costs, none reported cost-effectiveness, twelve reported resource use; meta-analysis suggested reduced medication use but no impact on health centre visits. Estimated costs of intervention were low, but there was insufficient evidence to judge cost-effectiveness. Realist review findings suggested that facilitated TW is a complex intervention and group interaction contributes to the perception of benefit. It was unclear from the available data who might benefit most from facilitated TW. Limitations Difficulties with developing realist review programme theory meant that mechanisms operating during TW remain obscure. Conclusions Overall there is little evidence to support the effectiveness or cost-effectiveness of unfacilitated expressive writing interventions in people with LTCs. Further research focussed on facilitated TW in people with LTCs could be informative.

Is the supply of long-term debt independent of the term premia? Evidence from Portugal

An important assumption in the statistical analysis of the financial market effects of the central bank’s large scale asset purchase program is that the "long-term debt stock variables were exogenous to term premia". We test this assumption for a small open economy in a currency union over the period 2000M3 to 2015M10, via the determinants of short- term financing relative to long-term financing. Empirical estimations indicate that the maturity composition of debt does not respond to the level of interest rate or to the term structure. These findings suggest a lower adherence to the cost minimization mandate of debt management. However, we find that volatility and relative market size respectively decrease and increase short-term financing relative to long-term financing, while it decreases with an increase in government indebtedness.

Survival Extrapolation In The Presence Of Cause Specific Hazards.

Health economic evaluations require estimates of expected survival from patients receiving different interventions, often over a lifetime. However, data on the patients of interest are typically only available for a much shorter follow-up time, from randomised trials or cohorts. Previous work showed how to use general population mortality to improve extrapolations of the short-term data, assuming a constant additive or multiplicative effect on the hazards for all-cause mortality for study patients relative to the general population. A more plausible assumption may be a constant effect on the hazard for the specific cause of death targeted by the treatments. To address this problem, we use independent parametric survival models for cause-specific mortality among the general population. Because causes of death are unobserved for the patients of interest, a polyhazard model is used to express their all-cause mortality as a sum of latent cause-specific hazards. Assuming proportional cause-specific hazards between the general and study populations then allows us to extrapolate mortality of the patients of interest to the long term. A Bayesian framework is used to jointly model all sources of data. By simulation, we show that ignoring cause-specific hazards leads to biased estimates of mean survival when the proportion of deaths due to the cause of interest changes through time. The methods are applied to an evaluation of implantable cardioverter defibrillators for the prevention of sudden cardiac death among patients with cardiac arrhythmia. After accounting for cause-specific mortality, substantial differences are seen in estimates of life years gained from implantable cardioverter defibrillators.

Effects Of Pde Type 5 Inhibitors On Left Ventricular Diastolic Dysfunction In Resistant Hypertension.

Resistant hypertension (RHTN) is a multifactorial disease characterized by blood pressure (BP) levels above goal (140/90 mmHg) in spite of the concurrent use of three or more antihypertensive drugs of different classes. Moreover, it is well known that RHTN subjects have high prevalence of left ventricular diastolic dysfunction (LVDD), which leads to increased risk of heart failure progression. This review gathers data from studies evaluating the effects of phosphodiesterase-5 (PDE-5) inhibitors (administration of acute sildenafil and short-term tadalafil) on diastolic function, biochemical and hemodynamic parameters in patients with RHTN. Acute study with sildenafil treatment found that inhibition of PDE-5 improved hemodynamic parameters and diastolic relaxation. In addition, short-term study with the use of tadalafil demonstrated improvement of LVDD, cGMP and BNP-32 levels, regardless of BP reduction. No endothelial function changes were observed in the studies. The findings of acute and short-term studies revealed potential therapeutic effects of IPDE-5 drugs on LVDD in RHTN patients.A Hipertensão arterial resistente (HAR) é uma doença multifatorial caracterizada por níveis pressóricos acima das metas (140/90 mmHg), a despeito de tratamento farmacológico otimizado de 3 ou mais fármacos anti-hipertensivos de diferentes classes. Pacientes diagnosticados como hipertensos resistentes apresentam alta prevalência de disfunção diastólica do ventrículo esquerdo (DDVE) que proporciona risco aumentado para insuficiência cardíaca. Esta revisão reúne dados de estudos prévios avaliando os efeitos dos inibidores de fosfodiesterase-5 (PDE-5) (administração aguda de sildenafil e de curto prazo de tadalafil) na função diastólica e nos parâmetros bioquímicos e hemodinâmicos em pacientes com HAR. O estudo agudo com sildenafil demonstrou que a inibição da PDE-5 melhorou os parâmetros hemodinâmicos e de relaxamento diastólico. Além disso, o estudo curto prazo com o uso de tadalafil revelou melhora da DDVE e dos níveis de GMPc e BNP-32, independente de redução de pressão arterial. A função endotelial não apresentou alteração com ambos os tratamentos. Os resultados dos estudos agudo e de curto prazo sugerem efeitos terapêuticos potenciais dos fármacos inibidores da PDE-5 na disfunção diastólica em pacientes com HAR.

Complicações imediatas e tardias após cirurgia de reservatório ileal na polipose adenomatosa familiar

BACKGROUND: Restorative proctocolectomy is the procedure of choice to treat familial adenomatous polyposis, however it can be associated to short-term and long-term postoperative complications. AIM: To evaluate the occurrence of complications related to the surgical treatment of familial adenomatous polyposis with ileal pouch technique. METHODS: Retrospective study of 69 patients with familial adenomatous polyposis after rectocolectomy with ileal reservoir between 1984 and 2006, operated on Coloproctology Group, Medical Sciences Faculty, State University of Campinas, Campinas, SP, Brazil. The median follow-up period was 82 (2-280) months. Data obtained were surgical techniques and postoperative complications. RESULTS: The morbidity and mortality were 63.8% and 2.9%, respectively. The most frequent complications were small-bowel obstruction (17.4%), anastomotic stricture (15.9%) and pelvic sepsis (10.1%). Acute ischemia of the ileal pouch (4.3%), pouchitis (2.9%) and ileal pouch-related fistula (2.9%) had poorer frequency than others. CONCLUSIONS: The morbid-mortality was similar to the literature?s data and it is acceptable for a complex surgery in two terms like the ileal reservoir-anal anastomosis. The small-bowel obstruction was the most frequent complication. However, ischemia of the reservoir, pouchitis and pelvic sepsis were important complications and was related to the failure of the ileal reservoir.

Aplicação do escore MELD em pacientes submetidos a transplante de fígado: análise retrospectiva da sobrevida e dos fatores preditivos a curto e longo prazo

BACKGROUND: The model for end-stage liver disease (MELD) was developed to predict short-term mortality in patients with cirrhosis. There are few reports studying the correlation between MELD and long-term posttransplantation survival. AIM: To assess the value of pretransplant MELD in the prediction of posttransplant survival. METHODS: The adult patients (age >18 years) who underwent liver transplantation were examined in a retrospective longitudinal cohort of patients, through the prospective data base. We excluded acute liver failure, retransplantation and reduced or split-livers. The liver donors were evaluated according to: age, sex, weight, creatinine, bilirubin, sodium, aspartate aminotransferase, personal antecedents, brain death cause, steatosis, expanded criteria donor number and index donor risk. The recipients' data were: sex, age, weight, chronic hepatic disease, Child-Turcotte-Pugh points, pretransplant and initial MELD score, pretransplant creatinine clearance, sodium, cold and warm ischemia times, hospital length of stay, blood requirements, and alanine aminotransferase (ALT >1,000 UI/L = liver dysfunction). The Kaplan-Meier method with the log-rank test was used for the univariable analyses of posttransplant patient survival. For the multivariable analyses the Cox proportional hazard regression method with the stepwise procedure was used with stratifying sodium and MELD as variables. ROC curve was used to define area under the curve for MELD and Child-Turcotte-Pugh. RESULTS: A total of 232 patients with 10 years follow up were available. The MELD cutoff was 20 and Child-Turcotte-Pugh cutoff was 11.5. For MELD score > 20, the risk factors for death were: red cell requirements, liver dysfunction and donor's sodium. For the patients with hyponatremia the risk factors were: negative delta-MELD score, red cell requirements, liver dysfunction and donor's sodium. The regression univariated analyses came up with the following risk factors for death: score MELD > 25, blood requirements, recipient creatinine clearance pretransplant and age donor >50. After stepwise analyses, only red cell requirement was predictive. Patients with MELD score < 25 had a 68.86%, 50,44% and 41,50% chance for 1, 5 and 10-year survival and > 25 were 39.13%, 29.81% and 22.36% respectively. Patients without hyponatremia were 65.16%, 50.28% and 41,98% and with hyponatremia 44.44%, 34.28% and 28.57% respectively. Patients with IDR > 1.7 showed 53.7%, 27.71% and 13.85% and index donor risk <1.7 was 63.62%, 51.4% and 44.08%, respectively. Age donor > 50 years showed 38.4%, 26.21% and 13.1% and age donor <50 years showed 65.58%, 26.21% and 13.1%. Association with delta-MELD score did not show any significant difference. Expanded criteria donors were associated with primary non-function and severe liver dysfunction. Predictive factors for death were blood requirements, hyponatremia, liver dysfunction and donor's sodium. CONCLUSION: In conclusion MELD over 25, recipient's hyponatremia, blood requirements, donor's sodium were associated with poor survival.