Lifetime prevalence and risk factors for cancer in a Mexican American population with severe health disparities: The Cameron County Hispanic Cohort

Retrospective data from the Cameron Country Hispanic Cohort (1) were analyzed to assess the burden of cancer in the Mexican American population living in Brownsville TX. Data provided by the study participants for themselves and their parents and other extended relatives on cancer and related risk factors were used to determine both the prevalence of cancer and these risk factors as well as any associations between them. Lifetime incidence of cancer among the study participants was of 2.8%. Lifetime incidence of cancer among the parents of the study population was calculated for cancer in general and for specific cancer sites to determine the ranking of occurrence of each type of cancer. Some cancer types in this population were ranked higher than what would be expected when compared with national data from Hispanics in the U.S, these were: Liver cancer (3rd vs. 7th nationally in males and 6th vs. 13th nationally in females), stomach cancer (4th vs. 8th nationally in males and 5th vs. 11th nationally in females) and ovarian cancer (3rd vs. 8th nationally in females). A significant association with cancer was found for being born in the United States compared to being born elsewhere (O.R. 1.62, 95% C.I. 1.01–2.60) among study participants and the same association was also found between birth of parents in the United States regardless of gender for cancers in general (O.R. 1.38 95% C.I. 1.12–1.70), stomach cancer (O.R. 1.92 95% C.I. 1.01–3.67) and colorectal cancer (O.R. 2.93 95% C.I. 1.28–6.72). Having been born in the United States and having a family history of cancer was also found to be significantly associated with other risk factors for cancer such as obesity, diabetes and insulin resistance, both among the parents and the participant population, suggesting these interactions are complex. These high rates of cancer and particular prominence of less usual cancer such as liver and ovary in health disparities warrant evaluation of early detection strategies.^

Drought Tolerant Corn Strip Trial

The strip trial was designed to evaluate new drought tolerant corn hybrids for yield. Three of these drought tolerant hybrids were planted with other hybrids for comparison.

Pollen analyses of sediment core GeoB9508-5

Millennial-scale dry events in the Northern Hemisphere monsoon regions during the last Glacial period are commonly attributed to southward shifts of the Intertropical Convergence Zone (ITCZ) associated with an intensification of the northeasterly (NE) trade wind system during intervals of reduced Atlantic meridional overturning circulation (AMOC). Through the use of high-resolution last deglaciation pollen records from the continental slope off Senegal, our data show that one of the longest and most extreme droughts in the western Sahel history, which occurred during the North Atlantic Heinrich Stadial 1 (HS1), displayed a succession of three major phases. These phases progressed from an interval of maximum pollen representation of Saharan elements between ~19 and 17.4 kyr BP indicating the onset of aridity and intensified NE trade winds, followed by a millennial interlude of reduced input of Saharan pollen and increased input of Sahelian pollen, to a final phase between ~16.2 and 15 kyr BP that was characterized by a second maximum of Saharan pollen abundances. This change in the pollen assemblage indicates a mid-HS1 interlude of NE trade wind relaxation, occurring between two distinct trade wind maxima, along with an intensified mid-tropospheric African Easterly Jet (AEJ) indicating a substantial change in West African atmospheric processes. The pollen data thus suggest that although the NE trades have weakened, the Sahel drought remained severe during this time interval. Therefore, a simple strengthening of trade winds and a southward shift of the West African monsoon trough alone cannot fully explain millennial-scale Sahel droughts during periods of AMOC weakening. Instead, we suggest that an intensification of the AEJ is needed to explain the persistence of the drought during HS1. Simulations with the Community Climate System Model indicate that an intensified AEJ during periods of reduced AMOC affected the North African climate by enhancing moisture divergence over the West African realm, thereby extending the Sahel drought for about 4000 years.

Drought risk assessment as changes in the potential stand yield classes and potential forest production for Sitka spruce, Scots pine, and pedunculate oak over the next 80 years in the Great Britain

Probabilistic climate data have become available for the first time through the UK Climate Projections 2009, so that the risk of tree growth change can be quantified. We assess the drought risk spatially and temporally using drought probabilities and tree species vulnerabilities across Britain. We assessed the drought impact on the potential yield class of three major tree species (Picea sitchensis, Pinus sylvestris, and Quercus robur) which presently cover around 59% (400,700 ha) of state-managed forests, across lowland and upland sites. Here we show that drought impacts result mostly in reduced tree growth over the next 80 years when using b1, a1b and a1fi IPCC emissions scenarios. We found a maximum reduction of 94% but also a maximum increase of 56% in potential stand yield class in the 2080s from the baseline climate (1961-1990). Furthermore, potential production over the national forest estate for all three species in the 2080s may decrease due to drought by 42% in the lowlands and 32% in the uplands in comparison to the baseline climate. Our results reveal that potential tree growth and forest production on the national forest estate in Britain is likely to reduce, and indicate where and when adaptation measures are required. Moreover, this paper demonstrates the value of probabilistic climate projections for an important economic and environmental sector.

Comparación de dos métodos para la estimación de los daños por sequía en pastos de dehesa / Comparative methods for assessment of dehesa pasture drought insurance in Spain

El Sistema de Seguros Agrarios con el Seguro de cobertura de los daños por sequía en los pastos aprovechados por el ganado en régimen extensivo (línea de seguro 133) aplica la teledetección mediante un índice de vegetación (NDVI), con el fin de solucionar los problemas de peritación que surgen cuando se tiene que determinar la cantidad y calidad del pasto afectado por la sequía. Por ello el seguro de cobertura de los daños por sequía en pastos es el principal instrumento para hacer frente al gasto que supone la necesidad de suplemento de alimentación del ganado reproductor debido a la sequía. En las comarcas de Vitigudino, Trujillo y Valle de los Pedroches (España) se comparó la evolución del seguro de sequía en pastos desde 2006 a 2010 con un modelo matemático de crecimiento del pasto en función de las variables ecofisiológicas y ambientales. Sumadas las decenas de sequía extrema y sequía leve, el modelo matemático contabilizó un número mayor de decenas que las proporcionadas por Agroseguro. La recomendación es comparar las curvas de crecimiento del pasto con las curvas de evolución del NDVI, para ajustar ambos modelos

Caracterizacion de la sequia en pastos anuales en Dehesas / Characterization of pasture drought in dehesas of Spain

La sequía es un término meteorológico que significa un periodo seco prolongado. El objetivo de este trabajo es caracterizar el fenómeno estacional de la sequía en pastos anuales de dehesa. Durante 2010 y 2011 se realizó un seguimiento del pasto herbáceo en El Cubo de Don Sancho (Salamanca), Trujillo (Cáceres) y Pozoblanco (Córdoba). Se midió la producción herbácea y se caracterizó botánicamente cada zona, además se midió mensualmente la variación del contenido de agua en el suelo mediante un TDR y la precipitación. Los datos de campo de precipitación, humedad del suelo y cantidad de pasto en pie, y los datos estimados de evaporación se han comparado con la evolución del índice de vegetación para seguros de sequía por teledetección determinado por Agroseguro. Los resultados mostraron un retardo entre la acumulación de agua en el suelo y el crecimiento del pasto, que se transfiere a las medidas del índice de vegetación por teledetección. En los dos años de estudio los periodos de sequía sucedieron al inicio de crecimiento, justo después de la sequía estacional típica del verano.

Impact attribution models to evaluate drought effects: economic impacts, risk analyses and management strategies in Spain and Chile

La sequía es un fenómeno natural que se origina por el descenso de las precipitaciones con respecto a una media, y que resulta en la disponibilidad insuficiente de agua para alguna actividad. La creciente presión que se ha venido ejerciendo sobre los recursos hídricos ha hecho que los impactos de la sequía se hayan visto agravados a la vez que ha desencadenado situaciones de escasez de agua en muchas partes del planeta. Los países con clima mediterráneo son especialmente vulnerables a las sequías, y, su crecimiento económico dependiente del agua da lugar a impactos importantes. Para reducir los impactos de la sequía es necesaria una reducción de la vulnerabilidad a las sequías que viene dada por una gestión más eficiente y por una mejor preparación. Para ello es muy importante disponer de información acerca de los impactos y el alcance de este fenómeno natural. Esta investigación trata de abarcar el tema de los impactos de las sequías, de manera que plantea todos los tipos de impactos que pueden darse y además compara sus efectos en dos países (España y Chile). Para ello se proponen modelos de atribución de impactos que sean capaces de medir las pérdidas económicas causadas por la falta de agua. Los modelos propuestos tienen una base econométrica en la que se incluyen variables clave a la hora de evaluar los impactos como es una variable relacionada con la disponibilidad de agua, y otras de otra naturaleza para distinguir los efectos causados por otras fuentes de variación. Estos modelos se adaptan según la fase del estudio en la que nos encontremos. En primer lugar se miden los impactos directos sobre el regadío y se introduce en el modelo un factor de aleatoriedad para evaluar el riesgo económico de sequía. Esto se hace a dos niveles geográficos (provincial y de Unidad de Demanda Agraria) y además en el último se introduce no solo el riesgo de oferta sino también el riesgo de demanda de agua. La introducción de la perspectiva de riesgo en el modelo da lugar a una herramienta de gestión del riesgo económico que puede ser utilizada para estrategias de planificación. Más adelante una extensión del modelo econométrico se desarrolla para medir los impactos en el sector agrario (impactos directos sobre el regadío y el secano e impactos indirectos sobre la Agro Industria) para ello se adapta el modelo y se calculan elasticidades concatenadas entre la falta de agua y los impactos secundarios. Por último se plantea un modelo econométrico para el caso de estudio en Chile y se evalúa el impacto de las sequías debidas al fenómeno de La Niña. iv Los resultados en general muestran el valor que brinda el conocimiento más preciso acerca de los impactos, ya que en muchas ocasiones se tiende a sobreestimar los daños realmente producidos por la falta de agua. Los impactos indirectos de la sequía confirman su alcance a la vez que son amortiguados a medida que nos acercamos al ámbito macroeconómico. En el caso de Chile, su diferente gestión muestra el papel que juegan el fenómeno de El Niño y La Niña sobre los precios de los principales cultivos del país y sobre el crecimiento del sector. Para reducir las pérdidas y su alcance se deben plantear más medidas de mitigación que centren su esfuerzo en una gestión eficiente del recurso. Además la prevención debe jugar un papel muy importante para reducir los riesgos que pueden sufrirse ante situaciones de escasez. ABSTRACT Drought is a natural phenomenon that originates by the decrease in rainfall in comparison to the average, and that results in water shortages for some activities. The increasing pressure on water resources has augmented the impact of droughts just as water scarcity has become an additional problem in many parts of the planet. Countries with Mediterranean climate are especially vulnerable to drought, and its waterdependent economic growth leads to significant impacts. To reduce the negative impacts it is necessary to deal with drought vulnerability, and to achieve this objective a more efficient management is needed. The availability of information about the impacts and the scope of droughts become highly important. This research attempts to encompass the issue of drought impacts, and therefore it characterizes all impact types that may occur and also compares its effects in two different countries (Spain and Chile). Impact attribution models are proposed in order to measure the economic losses caused by the lack of water. The proposed models are based on econometric approaches and they include key variables for measuring the impacts. Variables related to water availability, crop prices or time trends are included to be able to distinguish the effects caused by any of the possible sources. These models are adapted for each of the parts of the study. First, the direct impacts on irrigation are measured and a source of variability is introduced into the model to assess the economic risk of drought. This is performed at two geographic levels provincial and Agricultural Demand Unit. In the latter, not only the supply risk is considered but also the water demand risk side. The introduction of the risk perspective into the model results in a risk management tool that can be used for planning strategies. Then an extension of the econometric model is developed to measure the impacts on the agricultural sector (direct impacts on irrigated and rainfed productions and indirect impacts on the Agri-food Industry). For this aim the model is adapted and concatenated elasticities between the lack of water and the impacts are estimated. Finally an econometric model is proposed for the Chilean case study to evaluate the impact of droughts, especially caused by El Niño Southern Oscillation. The overall results show the value of knowing better about the precise impacts that often tend to be overestimated. The models allow for measuring accurate impacts due to the lack of water. Indirect impacts of drought confirm their scope while they confirm also its dilution as we approach the macroeconomic variables. In the case of Chile, different management strategies of the country show the role of ENSO phenomena on main crop prices and on economic trends. More mitigation measures focused on efficient resource management are necessary to reduce drought losses. Besides prevention must play an important role to reduce the risks that may be suffered due to shortages.