Age-period-cohort effects in the incidence of hip fractures: political and economic events are coincident with changes in risk

Introduction: Healthcare improvements have allowed prevention but have also increased life expectancy, resulting in more people being at risk. Our aim was to analyse the separate effects of age, period and cohort on incidence rates by sex in Portugal, 2000–2008. Methods: From the National Hospital Discharge Register, we selected admissions (aged ≥49 years) with hip fractures (ICD9-CM, codes 820.x) caused by low/moderate trauma (falls from standing height or less), readmissions and bone cancer cases. We calculated person-years at risk using population data from Statistics Portugal. To identify period and cohort effects for all ages, we used an age–period–cohort model (1-year intervals) followed by generalised additive models with a negative binomial distribution of the observed incidence rates of hip fractures. Results: There were 77,083 hospital admissions (77.4 % women). Incidence rates increased exponentially with age for both sexes (age effect). Incidence rates fell after 2004 for women and were random for men (period effect). There was a general cohort effect similar in both sexes; risk of hip fracture altered from an increasing trend for those born before 1930 to a decreasing trend following that year. Risk alterations (not statistically significant) coincident with major political and economic change in the history of Portugal were observed around birth cohorts 1920 (stable–increasing), 1940 (decreasing–increasing) and 1950 (increasing–decreasing only among women). Conclusions: Hip fracture risk was higher for those born during major economically/politically unstable periods. Although bone quality reflects lifetime exposure, conditions at birth may determine future risk for hip fractures.

Maintenance of fire sprinkler systems based on the dynamic assessment of its condition

Safety is one of the major concerns of process safety engineers in most industrial facilities all over the world. To this scope, some events play an important role once the effect of their consequences can be assumed as totally undesirable. One of these events refers to the occurrence of a fire. Such event can result in catastrophic consequences for life, equipment, and continuity of activities or even leading to environmental damage. A fire protection equipment with low reliability means that this equipment are often unavailable and thus the risk of a fire increases. Maintenance of fire protection equipment is very important because this kind of systems is mostly in a dormant mode, which gives uncertainty about their operability when demanded in a real situation of fire. This article outlines the importance of tests, inspection, and maintenance operations in the context of a fire sprinkler system and proposes a methodology based on international standards and supported by test/inspection reports to correct the frequency of these actions according to the level of degradation of the components and regarding safety purposes. © 2015 American Institute of Chemical Engineers.

Petri net model decomposition - a model based approach supporting distributed execution

Dissertação apresentada para obtenção do Grau de Doutor em Engenharia Electrotécnica, Especialidade de Sistemas Digitais, pela Universidade Nova de Lisboa, Faculdade de Ciências e Tecnologia

Risk assessment in open innovation networks

Innovation is considered crucial for enterprises survival and current economic environment demands the best ways of achieving it. However, the development of complex products and services require the utilization of diverse know-how and technology, which enterprises may not hold. An effective strategy for achieving them is to rely in open innovation. Still, open innovation projects may fail for many causes, e.g. due to the dynamics of collaboration between partners. To effectively benefit from open innovation, it is recommended the utilization of adequate risk models. For achieving such models, a preliminary conceptualization of open innovation and risk is necessary, which includes modeling experiments with existing risk models, such as the FMEA.

Stochastic Short-term Incentive-based Demand Response Scheduling of Load-serving Entities

In competitive electricity markets it is necessary for a profit-seeking load-serving entity (LSE) to optimally adjust the financial incentives offering the end users that buy electricity at regulated rates to reduce the consumption during high market prices. The LSE in this model manages the demand response (DR) by offering financial incentives to retail customers, in order to maximize its expected profit and reduce the risk of market power experience. The stochastic formulation is implemented into a test system where a number of loads are supplied through LSEs.

Incentive-based demand response programs designed by asset-light retailers for day-ahead market

Following the deregulation experience of retail electricity markets in most countries, the majority of the new entrants of the liberalized retail market were pure REP (retail electricity providers). These entities were subject to financial risks because of the unexpected price variations, price spikes, volatile loads and the potential for market power exertion by GENCO (generation companies). A REP can manage the market risks by employing the DR (demand response) programs and using its' generation and storage assets at the distribution network to serve the customers. The proposed model suggests how a REP with light physical assets, such as DG (distributed generation) units and ESS (energy storage systems), can survive in a competitive retail market. The paper discusses the effective risk management strategies for the REPs to deal with the uncertainties of the DAM (day-ahead market) and how to hedge the financial losses in the market. A two-stage stochastic programming problem is formulated. It aims to establish the financial incentive-based DR programs and the optimal dispatch of the DG units and ESSs. The uncertainty of the forecasted day-ahead load demand and electricity price is also taken into account with a scenario-based approach. The principal advantage of this model for REPs is reducing the risk of financial losses in DAMs, and the main benefit for the whole system is market power mitigation by virtually increasing the price elasticity of demand and reducing the peak demand.

Vitamin D Intake and Cardiometabolic: Risk Factors in Adolescents

Background: A growing body of research suggests that vitamin D might play an important role in overall health. No data exist on vitamin D intake for the Azorean adolescent population. The purpose of this study was to assess vitamin D intake and investigate a possible association between vitamin D intake and cardiometabolic risk factors in Azorean adolescents. Methods: A cross-sectional school-based study was conducted on 496 adolescents (288 girls) aged 15–18 years from the Azorean Islands, Portugal. Anthropometric measurements (waist circumference and height), blood pressure (systolic), and plasma biomarkers [fasting glucose, insulin, total cholesterol (TC), high-density lipoprotein cholesterol (HDL-C), and triglycerides (TGs)] were measured to assess metabolic risk. Homeostasis model assessment (HOMA), TC-to-HDL-C ratio, and waist-to-height ratio were calculated. For each of these variables, a Z-score was computed by age and sex. A metabolic risk score was constructed by summing the Zscores of all individual risk factors. High risk was considered when the individual had ‡ 1 standard deviation(SD) of this score. Vitamin D intake was assessed with a semiquantitative food frequency questionnaire. Participants were classified into quartiles of vitamin D intake. Logistic regression was used to determine odds ratios for high cardiometabolic risk scores after adjusting for total energy intake, pubertal stage, fat mass percentage, and cardiorespiratory fitness. Results: Mean (SD) vitamin D intake was 5.8 (6.5) mg/day, and 9.1% of Azorean adolescents achieved the estimated average requirement of vitamin D (10 mg/day or 400 IU). Logistic regression showed that the odds ratio for a high cardiometabolic risk score was 3.35 [95% confidence interval (CI) 1.28–8.75] for adolescents in the lowest vitamin D intake quartile in comparison with those in the highest vitamin D intake quartile, even after adjustment for confounders. Conclusion: A lower level of vitamin D intake was associated with worse metabolic profile among Azorean adolescents.

A calculus for modeling and analyzing conversations in service-oriented computing

Dissertação apresentada para a obtenção do Grau de Doutor em Informática pela Universidade Nova de Lisboa, Faculdade de Ciências e Tecnologia

Effects of a home-based exercise program in body composition, abdominal fat and lipid profile in patients with coronary artery disease

Introduction: Coronary artery disease and aging seems to be associated with a sedentary lifestyle, contributing to increased abdominal fat and consequently metabolic complications. The exercise can break this cycle by stimulating lipolysis and the use of fatty acids. In Europe there is still a lack of cardiac rehabilitation programmes in hospitals, therefore, this study aims to demonstrate the advantages of implementing home-based exercise programmes, as well as, their effects on cardiovascular prevention. This study analyzed the effects of a home-based exercise programme, in patients with coronary artery disease (myocardial infarction for 1 year), in body composition, abdominal fat, lipid profile. Methods: An ongoing randomized controlled trial with a sample of 20 participants were randomly allocated to intervention (n = 10) and control groups (n = 10). Intervention group performed a specific exercise programme during 8 weeks, consisting of ten home based exercises taking into account flexibility, muscle endurance and strength as well as cardiovascular endurance. Skinfolds thickness were measure to calculate the percentage of total fat: Skinfolds used were suprailiac, abdominal horizontal and vertical. Body mass index calculation and blood tests for lipidic profile were performed. Results: After eight weeks the intervention group decreased significantly the percentage of total fat (p < 0.05), the suprailiac skinfold (p < 0.05), the abdominal horizontal and vertical skinfold (p < 0.05) when compared with control group. In the intervention group it was observed after 8 weeks a significant decrease in body mass index, LDL-cholesterol and triglycerides. Conclusions: Home-based exercise programme influenced body composition, abdominal fat and lipid profile. These results highlight the importance of implementing home based exercises that are easy and cheap to implement in cardiac patients, in order to promote health and reduce cardiovascular risk factors.

New prevalence estimate of TT virus (TTV) infection in low- and high-risk population from São Paulo, Brazil

The prevalence of TT virus (TTV) infection was investigated by Polymerase Chain Reaction (PCR) in low- (blood donors and healthy children/adolescents) and high-risk (hemophiliacs) groups from São Paulo, Brazil. Primers based on the untranslated region (UTR) of the viral genome proved to be much more ubiquitous, leading to much higher frequencies for both groups ( > or = 81%) than the earlier N22-PCR directed to the open reading frame 1 (blood donors, 5.5%, and hemophiliacs, 42.3%). The UTR-PCR also revealed an interesting profile for healthy children/adolescents: very high prevalence at the early years and significant decrease in male teenagers. The N22-PCR, in turn, demonstrated higher frequency in hemophiliacs treated with fresh blood products (58%), than in those treated with virus-inactivated clotting factors (9.4%) and blood donors (5.5%).

Electricity markets modeling considering complex contracts and aggregators

All over the world, the liberalization of electricity markets, which follows different paradigms, has created new challenges for those involved in this sector. In order to respond to these challenges, electric power systems suffered a significant restructuring in its mode of operation and planning. This restructuring resulted in a considerable increase of the electric sector competitiveness. Particularly, the Ancillary Services (AS) market has been target of constant renovations in its operation mode as it is a targeted market for the trading of services, which have as main objective to ensure the operation of electric power systems with appropriate levels of stability, safety, quality, equity and competitiveness. In this way, with the increasing penetration of distributed energy resources including distributed generation, demand response, storage units and electric vehicles, it is essential to develop new smarter and hierarchical methods of operation of electric power systems. As these resources are mostly connected to the distribution network, it is important to consider the introduction of this kind of resources in AS delivery in order to achieve greater reliability and cost efficiency of electrical power systems operation. The main contribution of this work is the design and development of mechanisms and methodologies of AS market and for energy and AS joint market, considering different management entities of transmission and distribution networks. Several models developed in this work consider the most common AS in the liberalized market environment: Regulation Down; Regulation Up; Spinning Reserve and Non-Spinning Reserve. The presented models consider different rules and ways of operation, such as the division of market by network areas, which allows the congestion management of interconnections between areas; or the ancillary service cascading process, which allows the replacement of AS of superior quality by lower quality of AS, ensuring a better economic performance of the market. A major contribution of this work is the development an innovative methodology of market clearing process to be used in the energy and AS joint market, able to ensure viable and feasible solutions in markets, where there are technical constraints in the transmission network involving its division into areas or regions. The proposed method is based on the determination of Bialek topological factors and considers the contribution of the dispatch for all services of increase of generation (energy, Regulation Up, Spinning and Non-Spinning reserves) in network congestion. The use of Bialek factors in each iteration of the proposed methodology allows limiting the bids in the market while ensuring that the solution is feasible in any context of system operation. Another important contribution of this work is the model of the contribution of distributed energy resources in the ancillary services. In this way, a Virtual Power Player (VPP) is considered in order to aggregate, manage and interact with distributed energy resources. The VPP manages all the agents aggregated, being able to supply AS to the system operator, with the main purpose of participation in electricity market. In order to ensure their participation in the AS, the VPP should have a set of contracts with the agents that include a set of diversified and adapted rules to each kind of distributed resource. All methodologies developed and implemented in this work have been integrated into the MASCEM simulator, which is a simulator based on a multi-agent system that allows to study complex operation of electricity markets. In this way, the developed methodologies allow the simulator to cover more operation contexts of the present and future of the electricity market. In this way, this dissertation offers a huge contribution to the AS market simulation, based on models and mechanisms currently used in several real markets, as well as the introduction of innovative methodologies of market clearing process on the energy and AS joint market. This dissertation presents five case studies; each one consists of multiple scenarios. The first case study illustrates the application of AS market simulation considering several bids of market players. The energy and ancillary services joint market simulation is exposed in the second case study. In the third case study it is developed a comparison between the simulation of the joint market methodology, in which the player bids to the ancillary services is considered by network areas and a reference methodology. The fourth case study presents the simulation of joint market methodology based on Bialek topological distribution factors applied to transmission network with 7 buses managed by a TSO. The last case study presents a joint market model simulation which considers the aggregation of small players to a VPP, as well as complex contracts related to these entities. The case study comprises a distribution network with 33 buses managed by VPP, which comprises several kinds of distributed resources, such as photovoltaic, CHP, fuel cells, wind turbines, biomass, small hydro, municipal solid waste, demand response, and storage units.

Performance Analysis of IEEE 802.15.6 Contention-based MAC Protocol

IEEE International Conference on Communications (IEEE ICC 2015). 8 to 12, Jun, 2015, IEEE ICC 2015 - Communications QoS, Reliability and Modeling, London, United Kingdom.

Fractional Calculus: Application in modeling and control

This contribution introduces the fractional calculus (FC) fundamental mathematical aspects and discuses some of their consequences. Based on the FC concepts, the chapter reviews the main approaches for implementing fractional operators and discusses the adoption of FC in control systems. Finally are presented some applications in the areas of modeling and control, namely fractional PID, heat diffusion systems, electromagnetism, fractional electrical impedances, evolutionary algorithms, robotics, and nonlinear system control.

Modeling and Control of a Dragonfly-Like Robot

Dragonflies demonstrate unique and superior flight performances than most of the other insect species and birds. They are equipped with two pairs of independently controlled wings granting an unmatchable flying performance and robustness. In this paper it is studied the dynamics of a dragonfly-inspired robot. The system performance is analyzed in terms of time response and robustness. The development of computational simulation based on the dynamics of the robotic dragonfly allows the test of different control algorithms. We study different movement, the dynamics and the level of dexterity in wing motion of the dragonfly. The results are positive for the construction of flying platforms that effectively mimic the kinematics and dynamics of dragonflies and potentially exhibit superior flight performance than existing flying platforms.

Environmental modeling with precision navigation using ROAZ autonomous surface vehicle

The use of robotic vehicles for environmental modeling is discussed. This paper presents diverse results in autonomous marine missions with the ROAZ autonomous surface vehicle. The vehicle can perform autonomous missions while gathering marine data with high inertial and positioning precision. The underwater world is an, economical and environmental, asset that need new tools to study and preserve it. ROAZ is used in marine environment missions since it can sense and monitor the surface and underwater scenarios. Is equipped with a diverse set of sensors, cameras and underwater sonars that generate 3D environmental models. It is used for study the marine life and possible underwater wrecks that can pollute or be a danger to marine navigation. The 3D model and integration of multibeam and sidescan sonars represent a challenge in nowadays. Adding that it is important that robots can explore an area and make decisions based on their surroundings and goals. Regard that, autonomous robotic systems can relieve human beings of repetitive and dangerous tasks.