956 resultados para random forest regression


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Most methods for small-area estimation are based on composite estimators derived from design- or model-based methods. A composite estimator is a linear combination of a direct and an indirect estimator with weights that usually depend on unknown parameters which need to be estimated. Although model-based small-area estimators are usually based on random-effects models, the assumption of fixed effects is at face value more appropriate.Model-based estimators are justified by the assumption of random (interchangeable) area effects; in practice, however, areas are not interchangeable. In the present paper we empirically assess the quality of several small-area estimators in the setting in which the area effects are treated as fixed. We consider two settings: one that draws samples from a theoretical population, and another that draws samples from an empirical population of a labor force register maintained by the National Institute of Social Security (NISS) of Catalonia. We distinguish two types of composite estimators: a) those that use weights that involve area specific estimates of bias and variance; and, b) those that use weights that involve a common variance and a common squared bias estimate for all the areas. We assess their precision and discuss alternatives to optimizing composite estimation in applications.

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In this paper we examine the determinants of wages and decompose theobserved differences across genders into the "explained by differentcharacteristics" and "explained by different returns components"using a sample of Spanish workers. Apart from the conditionalexpectation of wages, we estimate the conditional quantile functionsfor men and women and find that both the absolute wage gap and thepart attributed to different returns at each of the quantiles, farfrom being well represented by their counterparts at the mean, aregreater as we move up in the wage range.

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In this study three new Brazilian species of Hymenoepimecis are described and illustrated. The specimens were collected using sweeping the vegetation and Malaise traps in areas of Atlantic forest in southeastern Brazil. The material described is figured with digital images.

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We present an exact test for whether two random variables that have known bounds on their support are negatively correlated. The alternative hypothesis is that they are not negatively correlated. No assumptions are made on the underlying distributions. We show by example that the Spearman rank correlation test as the competing exact test of correlation in nonparametric settings rests on an additional assumption on the data generating process without which it is not valid as a test for correlation.We then show how to test for the significance of the slope in a linear regression analysis that invovles a single independent variable and where outcomes of the dependent variable belong to a known bounded set.

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Alticini fauna from five areas, two with different types of management (Borda and Araucaria) and three with different levels of conservation (Fase 1, Fase 2 and Fase 3), in the Araucaria Forest of the Parana was captured with malaise traps. The material was collected weekly, from September/1999 to August/2001, in the Parque Estadual of Vila Velha, Ponta Grossa. 1,891 individuals of 106 Alticini species were collected with only seven species common to all areas. Despite the proximity between sampling areas, the number of species shared between pairs of areas was low, not reaching 40%, with the Araucaria and Fase 1 areas being the most similar. The community structure of the areas Fase 1 and Fase 2 were most related. Fase 1, in initial stage of succession, showed the largert variation in the abundance and richness from one year to another.

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Highly diverse forms of galling arthropods can be identified in much of southeastern Brazil's vegetation. Three fragments of a Seasonally Dry Tropical Forest (SDTF) located in the southern range of the Espinhaço Mountains were selected for study in the first survey of galling organisms in such tropical vegetation. Investigators found 92 distinct gall morphotypes on several organs of 51 host plant species of 19 families. Cecidomyiidae (Diptera) was the most prolific gall-inducing species, responsible for the largest proportion of galls (77%) observed. Leaves were the most frequently galled plant organ (63%), while the most common gall morphotype was of a spherical shape (30%). The two plant species, Baccharis dracunculifolia (Asteraceae) and Celtis brasiliensis (Cannabaceae), presented the highest number of gall morphtypes, displaying an average of 5 gall morphotypes each. This is the first study of gall-inducing arthropods and their host plant species ever undertaken in a Brazilian SDTF ecosystem. Given the intense human pressure on SDTFs, the high richness of galling arthropods, and implied floral host diversity found in this study indicates the need for an increased effort to catalogue the corresponding flora and fauna, observe their intricate associations and further understand the implications of such rich diversity in these stressed and vulnerable ecosystems.

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Human exploitation of the forest in the northwest of São Paulo State has generated enormous fragmentation of that forest. Such disturbance has reduced the populations of insects in general. This work was a survey of social wasps (Hymenoptera, Vespidae; Polistinae) in three areas in different stages of regeneration: Paulo de Faria - SP (435 ha), Pindorama - SP (128 ha) and Neves Paulista - SP (1 ha). These three areas were chosen for comparative purposes. To capture the wasps, it was used: active collecting with attractant liquid (solution of water, salt and sugar) with the aid of a dorsal spray bag. During the period from July to December 2006, 414 social wasps were collected in Paulo de Faria, constituting seven species belonging to four genera; 111 social wasps were collected in Pindorama, constituting six species belonging to four genera, and 129 social wasps were collected in Neves Paulista constituting 12 species belonging to seven genera. In order to compare these three areas ecological indexes were calculated. Neves Paulista had the greatest diversity, and Paulo de Faria presented greater abundance. These factors were probably caused by neighboring areas and ecological corridors, which were limited in Paulo de Faria and Pindorama.

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In this paper we analyse the observed systematic differences incosts for teaching hospitals (THhenceforth) in Spain. Concernhas been voiced regarding the existence of a bias in thefinancing of TH s has been raised once prospective budgets arein the arena for hospital finance, and claims for adjusting totake into account the legitimate extra costs of teaching onhospital expenditure are well grounded. We focus on theestimation of the impact of teaching status on average cost. Weused a version of a multiproduct hospital cost function takinginto account some relevant factors from which to derive theobserved differences. We assume that the relationship betweenthe explanatory and the dependent variables follows a flexibleform for each of the explanatory variables. We also model theunderlying covariance structure of the data. We assumed twoqualitatively different sources of variation: random effects andserial correlation. Random variation refers to both general levelvariation (through the random intercept) and the variationspecifically related to teaching status. We postulate that theimpact of the random effects is predominant over the impact ofthe serial correlation effects. The model is estimated byrestricted maximum likelihood. Our results show that costs are 9%higher (15% in the case of median costs) in teaching than innon-teaching hospitals. That is, teaching status legitimatelyexplains no more than half of the observed difference in actualcosts. The impact on costs of the teaching factor depends on thenumber of residents, with an increase of 51.11% per resident forhospitals with fewer than 204 residents (third quartile of thenumber of residents) and 41.84% for hospitals with more than 204residents. In addition, the estimated dispersion is higher amongteaching hospitals. As a result, due to the considerable observedheterogeneity, results should be interpreted with caution. From apolicy making point of view, we conclude that since a higherrelative burden for medical training is under public hospitalcommand, an explicit adjustment to the extra costs that theteaching factor imposes on hospital finance is needed, beforehospital competition for inpatient services takes place.

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The knowledge on Atlantic Forest scarab beetle fauna is quite limited. This biome is strongly degraded and these insects can be used as bioindicators since they are sensitive to forest destruction and show distinct organizational patterns in forest fragments or in areas that have been deteriorated by human activity. Thus, a study of the Scarabaeidae (sensu stricto) dung beetles fauna that inhabit Serra do Japi, São Paulo, Brazil (23º12'-23º22' S and 46º53'-47º03'W) was carried out; the monthly species richness was analyzed in six areas during one year and the vegetation's structural physiognomy was described. The areas included a conserved and a degraded valley, a northward and a southward hillside, a hilltop, and an area of secondary forest growing under eucalyptus trees. The specimens were collected using four pitfall traps baited with human feces, which remained at each spot during 48 hours. Between September, 1997 and August, 1998, 3524 individuals of 39 species were collected; the most abundant were: Canthidium trinodosum, Eurysternus cyanescens, Uroxys kratochvili, Scybalocanthon nigriceps, Uroxys lata, Canthonella sp., Dichotomius assifer, Deltochilum furcatum, Canthidium sp.2, Canthon latipes, Deltochilum rubripenne, Eurysternus sp., and Dichotomius sp.1. The number of individuals and species was greater in the hot, rainy season, when there was a correlation between the number of species and the mean annual temperature [r²= 0.69; p<0.01]. The lower winter richness was most pronounced in the conserved valley, while richness remained relatively constant in the degraded valley; abundance was much higher in the degraded valley. The cluster analysis showed that the valleys and hillsides are the most similar in relation to species composition and abundance, yet different from the secondary forest with eucalypts and the hilltop.

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The development time of the immature forms of Sabethes aurescens Lutz, 1905, from perforated bamboo in the southern Brazil rain forest was studied under laboratory conditions. Mean development periods were 5±2.23, 10±5.20, 14±8.26, 36±13.90 and 9±2.43 days, respectively, for the four larval instars and pupae. The 4th instar of females was longer than that of males. Implications of the long development time of the immature forms of Sa. aurescens are discussed.

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Termite biomass and abundance were estimated in three remnant areas of Atlantic Forest in northeastern Brazil: Reserva Biológica de Pedra Talhada-RBPT (Alagoas State), Parque Estadual Dois Irmãos-PEDI (Pernambuco State), and Área de Proteção Ambiental Mata do Buraquinho-APMB (Paraíba State). A quantitative sampling of the termite assemblages present on trunks and leaf litter, in nests, and in the soil was undertaken during the months of June and July (rainy season) and November and December (dry season) of 2000. Thirty seven species of termites were encountered and quantified in the three remnant forest areas. The termite biomass varied from 10.09 to 11.30 g (fresh weight)/m² and abundance varied from 4911 to 5663 individuals/m². The subfamily Nasutitermitinae was dominant in terms of the number of species, biomass, and abundance. The soil-feeders were the most abundant at the three sites, while wood-feeders had the largest biomass at least at the PEDI and APMB sites. Among the microhabitats quantified, termites were most frequently encountered in the soil, being most heavily concentrated at depths of 0-20 cm. Two species stood out in terms of their biomass and abundance: Embiratermes parvirostris Constantino, on the soil, and Nasutitermes corniger (Motschulsky), on decomposing trunks and in nests. Estimates of biomass and abundance suggest that termites play an important role in the decomposition of the plant necromass in remnant forest areas of the Atlantic Forest in northeastern Brazil.

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The synanthropic index and other ecological aspects of the Muscidae family were evaluated through simultaneous monthly sampling in three different environments (urban, rural and forest) using van Someren-Rydon traps baited with human faeces, chicken viscera and decomposing fish and onion. Four traps were set up in each environment (one per bait item) for 48 hours per month, with samples taken every 12 hours. A total of 5726 specimens were collected, belonging to 19 species and 13 genera. Brontaea normata (+99,9), Brontaea quadristigma (+96,9), Synthesiomyia nudiseta (+96,5), Ophyra aenescens (+96,2), Musca domestica (+95,7) and Atherigona orientalis (+93,8) had the highest synanthropic indices, showing a marked preference for human environments. The most abundant species were B. normata (24,31%), Biopyrellia bipuncta (20,60%) and Pseudoptilolepis nigripoda (15,82%), the latter two showed a preference for uninhabited areas. A total of 11 new records for Colombia were found: Ophyra aenescens, Cyrtoneuropsis pararescita, Morellia basalis, Neomuscina dorsipuncta, Biopyrellia bipuncta, Pseudoptilolepis nigripoda, Neomuscina instabilis, Neomuscina currani, Polietina orbitalis, Neomuscina pictipennis and Cyrtoneuropsis maculipennis. Except for the first four species, the remainder presented negative synantrophy indexes (from minor to major), which would allow to use them as ecological indicators of the disturbance degree of dry forests in Colombia.

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Melipona bicolor schencki occurs in southern Brazil and at high elevations in southeastern Brazil. It has potential for use in meliponiculture but this stingless bee species is vulnerable to extinction and we have little knowledge about its ecology. In order to gather essential information for species conservation and management, we made a study of seasonal flight activities in its natural environment. We sampled bees entering the nests with pollen, nectar/water and resin/mud, in five colonies during each season. In parallel, we analyzed the influence of hour of the day and meteorological factors on flight activity. Flights were most intense during spring and summer, with daily mean estimates of 2,100 and 2,333 flights respectively, while in fall and winter the daily flight estimate was reduced to 612 and 1,104 flights, respectively. Nectar and water were the most frequently-collected resources, followed by pollen and building materials. This preference occurred in all seasons, but with variations in intensity. During spring, daily flight activity lasted over 14 hours; this period was reduced in the other seasons, reaching eight hours in winter. Meteorological factors were associated with 40.2% of the variation in flight and resource collection activity. Apparently, other factors that we did not measure, such as colony needs and availability of floral resources, also strongly influence the intensity of resource collection.

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A new species of Cernotina (Trichoptera, Polycentropodidae) from the Atlantic Forest, Rio de Janeiro State, southeastern Brazil. Cernotina Ross, 1938, with 64 extant species, is a New World genus of caddisflies. In Brazil, there are 31 described species of which 28 are recorded from the Amazon basin. Cernotina puri sp. nov. is described and figured based on specimens collected in the Atlantic Forest, Rio de Janeiro State, Brazil. The new species can be distinguished by the shape of the intermediate appendages and tergum X. The immature stages of C. puri are unknown.

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Diversity of gall-inducing insects in the tropical dry forest (caatinga) of Pernambuco. We report on the richness of galling insects in the vegetation of caatinga of Pernambuco state, Brazil. We recorded 64 different types of galls collected primarily from leaves and stems of 48 species of host plants belonging to 17 families and 31 genera. The most common gall morphological types were spheroid and discoid, glabrous, predominantly green and with one chamber. The main gall inducing taxon was the Cecidomyiidae (Diptera). The results of this study contribute to existing knowledge of galling insect and host-plant diversity in caatinga.