Evolution of dominance under frequency-dependent intraspecific competition

A population-genetic analysis is performed of a two-locus two-allele model, in which the primary locus has a major effect on a quantitative trait that is under frequency-dependent disruptive selection caused by intraspecific competition for a continuum of resources. The modifier locus determines the degree of dominance at the trait level. We establish the conditions when a modifier allele can invade and when it becomes fixed if sufficiently frequent. In general, these are not equivalent because an unstable internal equilibrium may exist and the condition for successful invasion of the modifier is more restrictive than that for eventual fixation from already high frequency. However, successful invasion implies global fixation, i.e., fixation from any initial condition. Modifiers of large effect can become fixed, and also invade, in a wider parameter range than modifiers of small effect. We also study modifiers with a direct, frequency-independent deleterious fitness effect. We show that they can invade if they induce a sufficiently high level of dominance and if disruptive selection on the ecological trait is strong enough. For deleterious modifiers, successful invasion no longer implies global fixation because they can become stuck at an intermediate frequency due to a stable internal equilibrium. Although the conditions for invasion and for fixation if sufficiently frequent are independent of the linkage relation between the two loci, the rate of spread depends strongly on it. The present study provides further support to the view that evolution of dominance may be an efficient mechanism to remove unfit heterozygotes that are maintained by balancing selection. It also demonstrates that an invasion analysis of mutants of very small effect is insufficient to obtain a full understanding of the evolutionary dynamics under frequency-dependent selection.

EVOLUTION OF DOMINANCE UNDER FREQUENCY-DEPENDENT INTRASPECIFIC COMPETITION IN AN ASSORTATIVELY MATING POPULATION

We study the evolution of higher levels of dominance as a response to negative frequency-dependent selection. In contrast to previous studies, we focus on the effect of assortative mating on the evolution of dominance under frequency-dependent intraspecific competition. We analyze a two-locus two-allele model, in which the primary locus has a major effect on a quantitative trait that is under a mixture of frequency-independent stabilizing selection, density-dependent selection, and frequency-dependent selection caused by intraspecific competition for a continuum of resources. The second (modifier) locus determines the degree of dominance at the trait level. Additionally, the population mates assortatively with respect to similarities in the ecological trait. Our analysis shows that the parameter region in which dominance can be established decreases if small levels of assortment are introduced. In addition, the degree of dominance that can be established also decreases. In contrast, if assortment is intermediate, sexual selection for extreme types can be established, which leads to evolution of higher levels of dominance than under random mating. For modifiers with large effects, intermediate levels of assortative mating are most favorable for the evolution of dominance. For large modifiers, the speed of fixation can even be higher for intermediate levels of assortative mating than for random mating.

Dominance and the maintenance of polymorphism in multiallelic migration-selection models with two demes

The maintenance of genetic variation in a spatially heterogeneous environment has been one of the main research themes in theoretical population genetics. Despite considerable progress in understanding the consequences of spatially structured environments on genetic variation, many problems remain unsolved. One of them concerns the relationship between the number of demes, the degree of dominance, and the maximum number of alleles that can be maintained by selection in a subdivided population. In this work, we study the potential of maintaining genetic variation in a two-deme model with deme-independent degree of intermediate dominance, which includes absence of G x E interaction as a special case. We present a thorough numerical analysis of a two-deme three-allele model, which allows us to identify dominance and selection patterns that harbor the potential for stable triallelic equilibria. The information gained by this approach is then used to construct an example in which existence and asymptotic stability of a fully polymorphic equilibrium can be proved analytically. Noteworthy, in this example the parameter range in which three alleles can coexist is maximized for intermediate migration rates. Our results can be interpreted in a specialist-generalist context and (among others) show when two specialists can coexist with a generalist in two demes if the degree of dominance is deme independent and intermediate. The dominance relation between the generalist allele and the specialist alleles play a decisive role. We also discuss linear selection on a quantitative trait and show that G x E interaction is not necessary for the maintenance of more than two alleles in two demes.

Dating the Siple Dome (Antarctica) Ice Core By Manual and Computer Interpretation of Annual Layering

The Holocene portion of the Siple Dome (Antarctica) ice core was dated by interpreting the electrical, visual and chemical properties of the core. The data were interpreted manually and with a computer algorithm. The algorithm interpretation was adjusted to be consistent with atmospheric methane stratigraphic ties to the GISP2 (Greenland Ice Sheet Project 2) ice core, (BE)-B-10 stratigraphic ties to the dendrochronology C-14 record and the dated volcanic stratigraphy. The algorithm interpretation is more consistent and better quantified than the tedious and subjective manual interpretation.

CO(2) Diffusion in Polar Ice: Observations from Naturally Formed CO(2) Spikes in the Siple Dome (Antarctica) Ice Core

One common assumption in interpreting ice-core CO(2) records is that diffusion in the ice does not affect the concentration profile. However, this assumption remains untested because the extremely small CO(2) diffusion coefficient in ice has not been accurately determined in the laboratory. In this study we take advantage of high levels of CO(2) associated with refrozen layers in an ice core from Siple Dome, Antarctica, to study CO(2) diffusion rates. We use noble gases (Xe/Ar and Kr/Ar), electrical conductivity and Ca(2+) ion concentrations to show that substantial CO(2) diffusion may occur in ice on timescales of thousands of years. We estimate the permeation coefficient for CO(2) in ice is similar to 4 x 10(-21) mol m(-1) s(-1) Pa(-1) at -23 degrees C in the top 287 m (corresponding to 2.74 kyr). Smoothing of the CO(2) record by diffusion at this depth/age is one or two orders of magnitude smaller than the smoothing in the firn. However, simulations for depths of similar to 930-950m (similar to 60-70 kyr) indicate that smoothing of the CO(2) record by diffusion in deep ice is comparable to smoothing in the firn. Other types of diffusion (e.g. via liquid in ice grain boundaries or veins) may also be important but their influence has not been quantified.

Seasonal Deuterium Excess in a Tien Shan Ice Core: Influence of Moisture Transport and Recycling in Central Asia

Stable water isotope (delta(18)O, deltaD) data from a high elevation (5100 masl) ice core recovered from the Tien Shan Mountains, Kyrgyzstan, display a seasonal cycle in deuterium excess (d = deltaD - 8* delta(18)O) related to changes in the regional hydrologic cycle during 1994 - 2000. While there is a strong correlation (r(2) = 0.98) between delta(18)O and dD in the ice core samples, the regression slope (6.9) and mean d value (23.0) are significantly different than the global meteoric water line values. The resulting time-series ice core d profile contains distinct winter maxima and summer minima, with a yearly d amplitude of similar to 15 - 20parts per thousand. Local-scale processes that may affect d values preserved in the ice core are not consistent with the observed seasonal variability. Data from Central Asian monitoring sites in the Global Network of Isotopes in Precipitation (GNIP) have similar seasonal d changes. We suggest that regional-scale hydrological conditions, including seasonal changes in moisture source, transport, and recycling in the Caspian/ Aral Sea region, are responsible for the observed spatial and temporal d variability.

A 12,000 Year Record of Explosive Volcanism in the Siple Dome Ice Core, West Antarctica

Air mass trajectories in the Southern Hemisphere provide a mechanism for transport to and deposition of volcanic products on the Antarctic ice sheet from local volcanoes and from tropical and subtropical volcanic centers. This study extends the detailed record of Antarctic, South American, and equatorial volcanism over the last 12,000 years using continuous glaciochemical series developed from the Siple Dome A (SDMA) ice core, West Antarctica. The largest volcanic sulfate spike ( 280 mu g/L) occurs at 5881 B. C. E. Other large signals with unknown sources are observed around 325 B. C. E. ( 270 mu g/L) and 2818 B. C. E. ( 191 mu g/L). Ages of several large equatorial or Southern Hemisphere volcanic eruptions are synchronous with many sulfate peaks detected in the SDMA volcanic ice chemistry record. The microprobe "fingerprinting'' of glass shards in the SDMA core points to the following Antarctic volcanic centers as sources of tephra found in the SDMA core: Balenny Island, Pleiades, Mount Berlin, Mount Takahe, and Mount Melbourne as well as Mount Hudson and possibly Mount Burney volcanoes of South America. Identified volcanic sources provide an insight into the poorly resolved transport history of volcanic products from source volcanoes to the West Antarctic ice sheet.

Recent Increase in Black Carbon Concentrations from a Mt. Everest Ice Core Spanning 1860-2000 AD

A Mt. Everest ice core spanning 1860-2000 AD and analyzed at high resolution for black carbon (BC) using a Single Particle Soot Photometer (SP2) demonstrates strong seasonality, with peak concentrations during the winter-spring, and low concentrations during the summer monsoon season. BC concentrations from 1975-2000 relative to 1860-1975 have increased approximately threefold, indicating that BC from anthropogenic sources is being transported to high elevation regions of the Himalaya. The timing of the increase in BC is consistent with BC emission inventory data from South Asia and the Middle East, however since 1990 the ice core BC record does not indicate continually increasing BC concentrations. The Everest BC and dust records provide information about absorbing impurities that can contribute to glacier melt by reducing the albedo of snow and ice. There is no increasing trend in dust concentrations since 1860, and estimated surface radiative forcing due to BC in snow exceeds that of dust in snow. This suggests that a reduction in BC emissions may be an effective means to reduce the effect of absorbing impurities on snow albedo and melt, which affects Himalayan glaciers and the availability of water resources in major Asian rivers. Citation: Kaspari, S. D., M. Schwikowski, M. Gysel, M. G. Flanner, S. Kang, S. Hou, and P. A. Mayewski (2011), Recent increase in black carbon concentrations from a Mt. Everest ice core spanning 1860-2000 AD, Geophys. Res. Lett., 38, L04703, doi: 10.1029/2010GL046096.

Recent Increases in Atmospheric Concentrations of Bi, U, Cs, S and Ca from a 350-Year Mount Everest Ice Core Record

High-resolution major and trace elements (Sr, Cs, Ba, La, Ce, Pr, Nd, Sm, Eu, Tb, Dy, Ho, Er, Tm, Yb, Lu, Bi, U, Tl, Al, S, Ca, Ti, V, Cr, Mn, Fe, and Co) quantified in a Mount Everest ice core ( 6518 m above sea level) spanning the period 1650-2002 AD provides the first Asian record of trace element concentrations from the pre-industrial era, and the first continuous high-resolution Asian record from which natural baseline concentrations and subsequent changes due to anthropogenic activities can be examined. Modern concentrations of most elements remain within the pre-industrial range; however, Bi, U, and Cs concentrations and their enrichment factors (EF) have increased since the similar to 1950s, and S and Ca concentrations and their EFs have increased since the late 1980s. A comparison of the Bi, U, Cs, S, and Ca data with other ice core records and production data indicates that the increase in atmospheric concentrations of trace elements is widespread, but that enrichment varies regionally. Likely sources for the recent enrichment of these elements include mining, metal smelting, oil and coal combustion, and end uses for Bi, and mining and refinement for U and Cs. The source of the synchronous enrichment of Ca and S is less certain, but may be related to land use and environmental change.

Topographic Control of Regional Accumulation Rate Variability at South Pole and Implications for Ice-Core Interpretation

Snow-accumulation rates are known to be sensitive to local changes in ice-sheet surface slope because of the effect of katabatic winds. These topographic effects can be preserved in ice cores that are collected at non-ice-divide locations. The trajectory of an ice-core site at South Pole is reconstructed using measurements of ice-sheet motion to show that snow was probably deposited at places of different surface slope during the past 1000 years. Recent accumulation rates, derived from shallow firn cores, vary along this trajectory according to surface topography, so that on a relatively steep flank mean annual accumulation is similar to 18% smaller than on a nearby topographic depression. These modern accumulation rates are used to reinterpret the cause of accumulation rate variability with time in the long ice-core record as an ice-dynamics effect and not a climate-change signal. The results highlight the importance of conducting ancillary ice-dynamics measurements as part of ice-coring programs so that topographic effects can be deconvolved from potential climate signals.

Ice Core Record of Rising Lead Pollution in the North Pacific Atmosphere

A high-resolution, 8000 year-long ice core record from the Mt. Logan summit plateau (5300 m asl) reveals the initiation of trans-Pacific lead (Pb) pollution by ca. 1730, and a > 10-fold increase in Pb concentration (1981-1998 mean = 68.9 ng/l) above natural background (5.6 ng/l) attributed to rising anthropogenic Pb emissions from Asia. The largest rise in North Pacific Pb pollution from 1970-1998 (end of record) is contemporaneous with a decrease in Eurasian and North American Pb pollution as documented in ice core records from Greenland, Devon Island, and the European Alps. The distinct Pb pollution history in the North Pacific is interpreted to result from the later industrialization and less stringent abatement measures in Asia compared to North America and Eurasia. The Mt. Logan record shows evidence for both a rising Pb emissions signal from Asia and a trans-Pacific transport efficiency signal related to the strength of the Aleutian Low.

A High-Resolution Record of Atmospheric Dust Composition and Variability Since Ad 1650 from a Mount Everest Ice Core

A Mount Everest ice core analyzed at high resolution for major and trace elements (Sr, Cs, Ba, La, Ce, Pr, Nd, Sm, Eu, Tb, Dy, Ho, Er, Tm, Yb, Lu, Bi, U, Tl, Al, S, Ca, Ti, V, Cr, Mn, Fe, Co) and spanning the period A. D. 1650- 2002 is used to investigate the sources of and variations in atmospheric dust through time. The chemical composition of dust varies seasonally, and peak dust concentrations occur during the winter-spring months. Significant correlations between the Everest dust record and dust observations at stations suggest that the Everest record is representative of regional variations in atmospheric dust loading. Back-trajectory analysis in addition to a significant correlation of Everest dust concentrations and the Total Ozone Mapping Spectrometer (TOMS) aerosol index indicates that the dominant winter sources of dust are the Arabian Peninsula, Thar Desert, and northern Sahara. Factors that contribute to dust generation at the surface include soil moisture and temperature, and the long-range transport of dust aerosols appears to be sensitive to the strength of 500-mb zonal winds. There are periods of high dust concentration throughout the 350-yr Mount Everest dust record; however, there is an increase in these periods since the early 1800s. The record was examined for recent increases in dust emissions associated with anthropogenic activities, but no recent dust variations can be conclusively attributed to anthropogenic inputs of dust.

Twentieth Century Increase of Atmospheric Ammonia Recorded in Mount Everest Ice Core

An NH4+ record covering the period A.D. 1845-1997 was reconstructed using an 80.4 m ice core from East Rongbuk Glacier at an elevation of 6450 m on the northern slope of Mount Everest. Variations in NH4+ are characterized by a dramatic increase since the 1950s. The highest NH4+ concentrations occur in the 1980s. They are about twofold more than those in the first half of twentieth century. Empirical orthogonal function (EOF) analysis on the eight major ion (Na+,K+,Mg2+,NH4+,Ca2+,NO3-,SO42- and Cl-) series from this core indicates that NH4+ is loaded mainly on EOF3 (60% of NH4+ variance), suggesting that NH4+ has a unique signature. Instrumental sea level pressure (SLP) and regional temperatures are used to explore the relationship between NH4+ variations and both atmospheric circulation and natural source strength over Asia. Higher NH4+ concentrations are associated with an enhanced winter Mongolian High and a deepened summer Mongolian Low. A positive relationship also exists between NH4+ concentrations and regional temperature changes of the GIS Box 36 (Indian subcontinent), indicating that an increase in temperature may contribute to the strengthening of natural ammonia emissions (e. g., from plants and soils). A close positive correlation between NH4+ and acidic species (SO42- plus NO3-) concentrations suggests that a portion of the increase in NH4+ concentrations could be contributed by enhanced atmospheric acidification. Anthropogenic ammonia emissions from enhanced agricultural activities and energy consumption over Asia in concert with population increase since the 1950s appear also to be a significant factor in the dramatic increase of NH4+ concentrations during the last few decades.