Macroeconomics: Science or Faith Based Discipline?

Whether or not macroeconomics is a science depends on the scientific nature of macroeconomic theories and how the discipline responds when the empirical evidence fails to match the underlying assumptions and predictions of the theories. By way of an example, four conditions for macroeconomics to be a science are developed and used to examine the 'modern' theories of the Phillips curve. It is found that while the discipline in general maintains one condition it routinely violates the other three. This suggests the macroeconomics discipline has some way to go before it can call itself a 'pure science.'

Pets as the main source of two zoonotic species of the Trichophyton mentagrophytes complex in Switzerland, Arthroderma vanbreuseghemii and Arthroderma benhamiae

In cases of highly inflammatory dermatophytosis in humans, it is important to identify the possible source of animal transmission in order to prevent recurrence, family outbreaks or rapidly progressing epidemics. A survey of dermatophytes in pets during a 14-month period in Switzerland revealed, in addition to Microsporum canis, two different species of the Trichophyton mentagrophytes complex, Arthroderma benhamiae and Arthroderma vanbreuseghemii, all causing inflammatory dermatophytoses. Arthroderma benhamiae was only and frequently isolated from guinea pigs. Arthroderma vanbreuseghemii was isolated mainly from European short hair cats, but also from dogs and in one case from a pure-bred cat. Ninety-three percent of the cats carrying A. vanbreuseghemii were hunters and all had skin lesions. In contrast, cats with skin lesions that were strictly indoors were found to be almost exclusively infected by M. canis. Therefore, it can be suspected that infection with A. vanbreuseghemii occurred during hunting and that the natural source of this dermatophyte is either soil or an animal other than the cat, most probably a rodent.

Multiple Objectives in Monetary Policy: A de Facto Analysis for ‘Advanced’ Countries

A statistical methodology is developed by which realised outcomes can be used to identify, for calendar years between 1974 and 2012, when policy makers in ‘advanced’ economies have successfully pursued single objectives of different kinds, or multiple objectives. A simple criterion is then used to distinguish between multiple objectives pure and simple and multiple objectives subject to a price stability constraint. The overall and individual country results which this methodology produces seem broadly plausible. Unconditional and conditional analyses of the inflation and growth associated with different types of objectives reveal that multiple objectives subject to a price stability constraint are associated with roughly as good economic performance as the single objective of inflation. A proposal is then made as to how the remit of an inflation-targeting central bank could be adjusted to allow it to pursue other objectives in extremis without losing the credibility effects associated with inflation targeting.

Estudio del rendimiento cárnico de reproductores porcinos selectos de razas puras en estación de control

El sistema actual de testajes ofi ciales de porcino selecto en España, con el retorno de los mejores verracos a los núcleos de selección, ha demostrado ser muy efi caz para la selección y promoción de los futuros reproductores de élite. Esta metodología se ha ido mejorando y aproximando a los estándares europeos mediante la complementación de los parámetros de crecimiento, consumo de pienso, efi ciencia alimentaria, con parámetros de calidad de canal, de calidad de carne y de despiece de descendientes o colaterales de reproductores porcinos activos raza pura. En este artículo se presentan los resultados de los primeros 138 animales evaluados con esta nueva metodología. Production, carcass and meat quality of spanish pig pure breeds in Central Test Station The current system of pure breed offi cial tests in Spain, with the return of the best boars to the selection’s nucleus, up to now has proved to be very effective for the selection and the promotion of the future elite pure breed boars. This methodology has been improving and moving to European standards by means of the complementation of the growth, feed consumption, food effi ciency parameters with the quality of carcass, quality of meat and cutting parameters of relatives (sibblings) of active pedigree breeder. This chapter presents the results of fi rst 138 evaluated animals with this new methodology.

Two alternate mechanisms contribute to the persistence of interdependent lineages in Pogonomyrmex harvester ants.

Some populations of Pogonomyrmex harvester ants comprise pairs of highly differentiated lineages with queens mating at random with several males of their own and of the alternate lineage. These queens produce two types of diploid offspring, those fertilized by males of the queens' lineage which develop into new queens and those fertilized by males of the other lineage which mostly develop into functionally sterile workers. This unusual mode of genetic caste determination has been found in 26 populations and a total of four lineage pairs (F(1)-F(2), G(1)-G(2), H(1)-H(2) and J(1)-J(2)) have been described in these populations. Despite the fact that a few interlineage queens are produced, previous studies revealed that there is a complete lack of genetic introgression between lineages. Here we quantify the proportion of interlineage queens produced in each of the four lineage pairs and determine the fate of these queens. In the F(1)-F(2), G(1)-G(2) and H(1)-H(2) lineage pairs, interlineage queens were produced by a minority of colonies. These colonies exclusively produced interlineage queens and workers, suggesting that interlineage eggs can develop into queens in these three pairs of lineages in the absence of competition with pure-lineage brood. An analysis of three key stages of the colony life cycle revealed that colonies headed by interlineage queens failed to grow sufficiently to produce reproductive individuals. In laboratory comparisons, interlineage queens produced fewer viable eggs, with the effect that they raised fewer workers and lost more weight per worker produced than pure-lineage queens. In the J(1)-J(2) lineage pair, we did not find a single interlineage queen, raising the possibility that interlineage eggs have completely lost the ability to develop into queens in this lineage pair. Hence, two distinct mechanisms seem to account for the complete lack of between-lineage gene flow in the F(1)-F(2), G(1)-G(2), H(1)-H(2) and J(1)-J(2) lineage pairs.

Evaluation of some organic compounds on bloodstream forms of Trypanosoma cruzi

Accidental transmission of Chagas' disease to man by blood transfusion is a serious problem in Latin-America. This paper describes the testing of several synthetic, semi-synthetic, and natural compounds for their activity against blood trypomastigotes in vitro at 4-C. The compounds embody several types of chemical structures: benzoquinone, naphthoquinone, anthracenequinone, phenanthrenequinone, imidazole, piperazine, quinoline, xanthene, and simple benzenic and naphthalenic derivates. Some of them are for the first time tested against Trypanosoma cruzi. The toxic effect these compounds on this parasite was done by two quite distinct sets of experiments. In one set, the compounds were added to infected blood as ethanolic solution. In this situation the most active one was a furan-1, 2-naphthoquinone, in the same range as gentian violet, a new fact to be considered in the assessment of structure-activity relationships in this class of compounds. In other set, we tentatively evaluated the biological activity of water insoluble compounds by adding them in a pure form without solvent into infected blood. In this way some appear to be very active and it was postulated that the effectiveness of such compounds must result from interactions between them and specific blood components.

Gains from switching and evolutionary stability in multi-player matrix games.

In this paper we unify, simplify, and extend previous work on the evolutionary dynamics of symmetric N-player matrix games with two pure strategies. In such games, gains from switching strategies depend, in general, on how many other individuals in the group play a given strategy. As a consequence, the gain function determining the gradient of selection can be a polynomial of degree N-1. In order to deal with the intricacy of the resulting evolutionary dynamics, we make use of the theory of polynomials in Bernstein form. This theory implies a tight link between the sign pattern of the gains from switching on the one hand and the number and stability of the rest points of the replicator dynamics on the other hand. While this relationship is a general one, it is most informative if gains from switching have at most two sign changes, as is the case for most multi-player matrix games considered in the literature. We demonstrate that previous results for public goods games are easily recovered and extended using this observation. Further examples illustrate how focusing on the sign pattern of the gains from switching obviates the need for a more involved analysis.

Rosickyite (monoclinic gamma-sulphur) from La Presta Asphalt Mine, Neuchatel, Switzerland: new X-ray powder diffraction data

Rosickyite, the natural monoclinic gamma -form of sulphur, exists in only a few localities around the globe. In the old asphalt mine at La Presta, Neuchatel. Switzerland, rosickyite occurs locally as small, but very well formed crystals suitable for crystallographic studies. It grows as an alteration product of pyrite-rich asphalt. Rosickyite from La Presta mine is pure molecular sulphur, as revealed by gas chromatography-mass spectrometry. The X-ray powder diffraction data of La Presta rosickyite does not match the one previously published for this species. Therefore, a single crystal study was undertaken and a new indexed X-ray powder diffraction diagram for natural rosickyite is proposed.

Repeated unidirectional introgression towards Populus balsamifera in contact zones of exotic and native poplars.

As the evolutionary significance of hybridization is largely dictated by its extent beyond the first generation, we broadly surveyed patterns of introgression across a sympatric zone of two native poplars (Populus balsamifera, Populus deltoides) in Quebec, Canada within which European exotic Populus nigra and its hybrids have been extensively planted since the 1800s. Single nucleotide polymorphisms (SNPs) that appeared fixed within each species were characterized by DNA-sequencing pools of pure individuals. Thirty-five of these diagnostic SNPs were employed in a high-throughput assay that genotyped 635 trees of different age classes, sampled from 15 sites with various degrees of anthropogenic disturbance. The degree of admixture within sampled trees was then assessed through Bayesian clustering of genotypes. Hybrids were present in seven of the populations, with 2.4% of all sampled trees showing spontaneous admixture. Sites with hybrids were significantly more disturbed than pure stands, while hybrids comprised both immature juveniles and trees of reproductive age. All three possible F1s were detected. Advanced-generation hybrids were consistently biased towards P. balsamifera regardless of whether hybridization had occurred with P. deltoides or P. nigra. Gene exchange between P. deltoides and P. nigra was not detected beyond the F1 generation; however, detection of a trihybrid demonstrates that even this apparent reproductive isolation does not necessarily result in an evolutionary dead end. Collectively, results demonstrate the natural fertility of hybrid poplars and suggest that introduced genes could potentially affect the genetic integrity of native trees, similar to that arising from introgression between natives.

IL28B polymorphism is significantly correlated with ifn anti-viral effectiveness already on first day of pegylated interferon-alpha and ribavirin therapy of chronic HCV infection

Background and Aims: Recently, single nucleotide polymorphisms (SNPs) in IL28B were shown to correlate with response to pegylated interferon-a (IFN) and ribavirin therapy of chronic HCV infection. However, the cause for the SNPs effect on therapy response and its application for direct anti-viral (DAV) treatment are not clear. Here, we analyze early HCV kinetics as function of IL28B SNPs to determine its specific effect on viral dynamics. Methods: IL28B SNPs rs8099917, rs12979860 and rs12980275 were genotyped in 252 chronically HCV infected Caucasian naïve patients (67% HCV genotype 1, 28% genotype 2-3) receiving peginterferonalfa- 2a (180 mg/qw) plus ribavirin (1000-1200 mg/qd) in the DITTO study. HCV-RNA was measured (LD = 50 IU/ml) frequently during first 28 days. Results: RVR was achieved in 33% of genotype 1 patients with genotype CC at rs12979860 versus 12-16% for genotypes TT and CT (P < 0.03). Significant (P < 0.001) difference in viral decline was observed already at day 1 (see Figure). First phase decline was significantly (P < 0.001) larger in patients with genotype CC (2.0 log) than for TT and CT genotypes (0.6 and 0.8), indicating IFN anti-viral effectiveness in blocking virion production of 99% versus 75-84%. There was no significant association between second phase slope and rs12979860 genotype in patients with a first phase decline larger than 1 log. HCV kinetics as function of IL28b SNP. The same trend (not shown) was observed for HCV genotype 2-3 patients with different SNP genotype distribution that may indicate differential selection pressure as function of HCV genotype. Similar results were observed for SNPs rs8099917 and rs12980275, with a strong linkage disequilibrium among the 3 loci allowing to define the composite haplotype best associated with IFN effectiveness. Conclusions: IFN effectiveness in blocking virion production/ release is strongly affected by IL28B SNPs, but not other viral dynamic properties such as infected cell loss rate. Thus, IFN based therapy, as standard-of-care or in combination with DAV, should consider IL28B SNPs for prediction and personalized treatment, while response to pure DAV treatment may be less affected by IL28B SNPs. Additional analyses are undergoing to pinpoint the SNP effect on IFN anti-viral effectiveness.

Harmonization of research and control in schistosomiasis

I have been employed by several different organizations during over 30 years working on schistosomiasis, the majority spent in endemic areas of Caribean, South America, Africa and the Western Pacific. Much of the work is best classified as applied research but sometimes it strayed to the extremes of either public health control programmes or pure research. Over this period, there have been several significant research developments that have altered our whole approach to control. Ideally, research and control should complement each other but, in reality, they sometimes have conflicting objectives. Public health workers understandably wish to provide immediate, shot-term protection to the communities in their care, but research workers may, within ethical limits, reasonably want to observe untreated communities for extended periods in order to understand the underluing process of transmission, disease pathogenesis and immunity to help develop more effective control measures. An example of this situation has occured recently in Senegal where water development projects seem to have favoured the introduction and spreed of Schistosoma mansoni in the Senegal River Basin. I have been asked to be the scientific consultant to the newly formed ESPOIR programme, linking European research organizations and the Senegal Ministry of Health, to reconcile the conflictiong aims of public health workers, wishing to use whatever funds can be obtained for an immediate chemotherapy to try to eliminate the focus, at present confined to the vicinity of a relatively small, commercially run sugar irrigation scheme; and research workers who see a rare chance to study the development of immune mechanisms in a adults in a community not previously exposed to the infection. This information could prove invaluable in understanding the development of immunity and the pathogenesis of disease, leading eventually to the development of vaccines to revolutionise the future approach to schistosomiasis...

Modelling dependence in a ratemaking procedure with multivariate Poisson regression models

When actuaries face with the problem of pricing an insurance contract that contains different types of coverage, such as a motor insurance or homeowner's insurance policy, they usually assume that types of claim are independent. However, this assumption may not be realistic: several studies have shown that there is a positive correlation between types of claim. Here we introduce different regression models in order to relax the independence assumption, including zero-inflated models to account for excess of zeros and overdispersion. These models have been largely ignored to multivariate Poisson date, mainly because of their computational di±culties. Bayesian inference based on MCMC helps to solve this problem (and also lets us derive, for several quantities of interest, posterior summaries to account for uncertainty). Finally, these models are applied to an automobile insurance claims database with three different types of claims. We analyse the consequences for pure and loaded premiums when the independence assumption is relaxed by using different multivariate Poisson regression models and their zero-inflated versions.

Fast screening and confirmation of doping agents by UHPLC-QTOF-MS/MS

Introduction: The general strategy to perform anti-doping analysis starts with a screening followed by a confirmatory step when a sample is suspected to be positive. The screening step should be fast, generic and able to highlight any sample that may contain a prohibited substance by avoiding false negative and reducing false positive results. The confirmatory step is a dedicated procedure comprising a selective sample preparation and detection mode. Aim: The purpose of the study is to develop rapid screening and selective confirmatory strategies to detect and identify 103 doping agents in urine. Methods: For the screening, urine samples were simply diluted by a factor 2 with ultra-pure water and directly injected ("dilute and shoot") in the ultrahigh- pressure liquid chromatography (UHPLC). The UHPLC separation was performed in two gradients (ESI positive and negative) from 5/95 to 95/5% of MeCN/Water containing 0.1% formic acid. The gradient analysis time is 9 min including 3 min reequilibration. Analytes detection was performed in full scan mode on a quadrupole time-of-flight (QTOF) mass spectrometer by acquiring the exact mass of the protonated (ESI positive) or deprotonated (ESI negative) molecular ion. For the confirmatory analysis, urine samples were extracted on SPE 96-well plate with mixed-mode cation (MCX) for basic and neutral compounds or anion exchange (MAX) sorbents for acidic molecules. The analytes were eluted in 3 min (including 1.5 min reequilibration) with a S1-25 Ann Toxicol Anal. 2009; 21(S1) Abstracts gradient from 5/95 to 95/5% of MeCN/Water containing 0.1% formic acid. Analytes confirmation was performed in MS and MS/MS mode on a QTOF mass spectrometer. Results: In the screening and confirmatory analysis, basic and neutral analytes were analysed in the positive ESI mode, whereas acidic compounds were analysed in the negative mode. The analyte identification was based on retention time (tR) and exact mass measurement. "Dilute and shoot" was used as a generic sample treatment in the screening procedure, but matrix effect (e.g., ion suppression) cannot be avoided. However, the sensitivity was sufficient for all analytes to reach the minimal required performance limit (MRPL) required by the World Anti Doping Agency (WADA). To avoid time-consuming confirmatory analysis of false positive samples, a pre-confirmatory step was added. It consists of the sample re-injection, the acquisition of MS/MS spectra and the comparison to reference material. For the confirmatory analysis, urine samples were extracted by SPE allowing a pre-concentration of the analyte. A fast chromatographic separation was developed as a single analyte has to be confirmed. A dedicated QTOF-MS and MS/MS acquisition was performed to acquire within the same run a parallel scanning of two functions. Low collision energy was applied in the first channel to obtain the protonated molecular ion (QTOF-MS), while dedicated collision energy was set in the second channel to obtain fragmented ions (QTOF-MS/MS). Enough identification points were obtained to compare the spectra with reference material and negative urine sample. Finally, the entire process was validated and matrix effects quantified. Conclusion: Thanks to the coupling of UHPLC with the QTOF mass spectrometer, high tR repeatability, sensitivity, mass accuracy and mass resolution over a broad mass range were obtained. The method was sensitive, robust and reliable enough to detect and identify doping agents in urine. Keywords: screening, confirmatory analysis, UHPLC, QTOF, doping agents

Cytological and isoenzyme analysis of the Bucay and Quevedo cytotypes of the onchocerciasis vector Simulium exiguum (Diptera: Simuliidae) in Ecuador

Four cytotypes of Simulium exiguum occur in Ecuador, where this morphospecies is the primary vector of onchocerciasis. In this paper, we give the first full description of the banding pattern of the larval polytene chromosomes of the Quevedo cytotypes differ from the chromosomal standard sequence (of the Cayapa cytotype) by the fixed inversions IIL-5 and IIL-6. The Quevedo cytotype additionally differs from the standard and Bucay cytotypes by processing a differentiated X chromosome, wich is indicated by the inversion IIS-A. As the degree of reproductive isolation between the Bucay and Quevedo cytotypes has not yet been estabilished, they must be regarded as intraspecific variants of the same species. In fact, isoenzyme characterizations showed that the Bucay and Quevedo cytotypes are differentiated only to the extent expected of incipient species or geographical populations. Moreover, the sibiling species status previously given to the Bucay cytotype needs be reassessed, there being inadequate analysis from areas in Ecuador where Bucay occurs in sympatry with the standard Cayapa cytotype. No isoenzyme electromorphs were discovered that identified all or mostadult females of any one (cytotype-pure) collection.

Venezuelan economic laboratory. The Case of the altruistic economy of Felipe Pérez Martí

Felipe Pérez Martí, who was the Venezuelan Minister of Planning and Development in the government of Hugo Chávez, proposes an economic model that he calls the altruistic economy or fourth way, which leads cooperative game theory to its logical extremes postulating a pure communism. Here we sustain that, first, it is impossible in the model of Pérez Martí to marginally allocate non-primary goods to those most in need or who most value them, facing a problem of defective economic calculation, and second, in order to achieve equality, he would have to replace his atomic local planners by a central planner, who would be unable to overcome the problem of imperfect and and incomplete information.