Climate change and dengue: a critical and systematic review of quantitative modelling approaches

Background Many studies have found associations between climatic conditions and dengue transmission. However, there is a debate about the future impacts of climate change on dengue transmission. This paper reviewed epidemiological evidence on the relationship between climate and dengue with a focus on quantitative methods for assessing the potential impacts of climate change on global dengue transmission. Methods A literature search was conducted in October 2012, using the electronic databases PubMed, Scopus, ScienceDirect, ProQuest, and Web of Science. The search focused on peer-reviewed journal articles published in English from January 1991 through October 2012. Results Sixteen studies met the inclusion criteria and most studies showed that the transmission of dengue is highly sensitive to climatic conditions, especially temperature, rainfall and relative humidity. Studies on the potential impacts of climate change on dengue indicate increased climatic suitability for transmission and an expansion of the geographic regions at risk during this century. A variety of quantitative modelling approaches were used in the studies. Several key methodological issues and current knowledge gaps were identified through this review. Conclusions It is important to assemble spatio-temporal patterns of dengue transmission compatible with long-term data on climate and other socio-ecological changes and this would advance projections of dengue risks associated with climate change. Keywords: Climate; Dengue; Models; Projection; Scenarios

IT governance stability in a political changing environment : exploring potential impacts in the public sector

Public sector organisations (PSOs) operate in information-intensive environments often within operational contexts where efficiency is a goal. What's more, the rapid adoption of IT is expected to facilitate good governance within public sector organisations but it often clashes with the bureaucratic culture of these organisations. Accordingly, models such as IT Governance (ITG) and government reform -in particular the new public management (NPM)- were introduced in PSOs in an effort to address the inefficiencies of bureaucracy and under performance. This work explores the potential effect of change in political direction and policy on the stability of IT governance in Australian public sector organisations. The aim of this paper is to examine implications of a change of government and the resulting political environment on the effectiveness of the audit function of ITG. The empirical data discussed here indicate that a number of aspects of audit functionality were negatively affected by change in political direction and resultant policy changes. The results indicate a perceived decline in capacity and capability which in turn disrupts the stability of IT governance systems in public sector organisations.