Investigating global tropical cyclone activity with a hierarchy of AGCMs: the role of model resolution

The ability to run General Circulation Models (GCMs) at ever-higher horizontal resolutions has meant that tropical cyclone simulations are increasingly credible. A hierarchy of atmosphere-only GCMs, based on the Hadley Centre Global Environmental Model (HadGEM1), with horizontal resolution increasing from approximately 270km to 60km (at 50N), is used to systematically investigate the impact of spatial resolution on the simulation of global tropical cyclone activity, independent of model formulation. Tropical cyclones are extracted from ensemble simulations and reanalyses of comparable resolutions using a feature-tracking algorithm. Resolution is critical for simulating storm intensity and convergence to observed storm intensities is not achieved with the model hierarchy. Resolution is less critical for simulating the annual number of tropical cyclones and their geographical distribution, which are well captured at resolutions of 135km or higher, particularly for Northern Hemisphere basins. Simulating the interannual variability of storm occurrence requires resolutions of 100km or higher; however, the level of skill is basin dependent. Higher resolution GCMs are increasingly able to capture the interannual variability of the large-scale environmental conditions that contribute to tropical cyclogenesis. Different environmental factors contribute to the interannual variability of tropical cyclones in the different basins: in the North Atlantic basin the vertical wind shear, potential intensity and low-level absolute vorticity are dominant, while in the North Pacific basins mid-level relative humidity and low-level absolute vorticity are dominant. Model resolution is crucial for a realistic simulation of tropical cyclone behaviour, and high-resolution GCMs are found to be valuable tools for investigating the global location and frequency of tropical cyclones.

The impact of price promotions on producer strategies in markets with large product heterogeneity

Although current research indicates that increasing the number of options has negative effects on the cognitive ability of consumers, little understanding has been given to the consequences on producers and their strategic behavior. This article tests whether a large portfolio of products is beneficial to producers by observing UK consumer response to price promotions. The article shows that discounts induce mainly segment switching (74% of the total impact), with a limited effect on stockpiling (26%) and no impact on purchase incidence. Consequently, consumers prefer to “follow the discount” rather than purchase multiple units of the same wine. This result seems to explain the current structure of the market, and suggests that discounts may conflict with segment loyalty, a situation that disfavors producers, particularly in very populated segments. Results also casts doubts on the economic sustainability of competition based on an intense product differentiation in the wine sector.

Competition and product survival in the UK car market

The paper examines the extent to which inter- and intra-firm competition influenced the survival of cars in the UK market between 1971 and 1998. It is shown that, while competition influenced product survival in all market segments within the UK car market, the nature of that competition differed between them. In the small family and large family car segments, intra-firm competition dominated inter-firm competition. In contrast, in the luxury/sports car segment only inter-firm competition conditions resulted in product survival. Evidence was also found that the luxury/sports car segment has grown more competitive over time and that firms marketing products in the family car segments have become considerably more successful at avoiding the effects of intra-firm competition.

Tax principles, product differentiation and the nature of competition

We analyze the choice between the origin and destination principles of taxation when there is product differentiation and Bertrand competition. If taxes are redistributed to consumers and demand is linear the origin principle dominates the destination principle whatever the degree of product differentiation and extent of economic integration. With nonlinear demand the origin principle dominates if there is sufficient economic integration. When the social value assigned to tax revenue is higher than the private value, the destination principle dominates for intermediate values of product differentiation and economic integration. The same results are also shown to hold with Cournot competition.

The influence of markets and policy on spatial patterns of non-timber forest product extraction

When villagers extract resources, such as fuelwood, fodder, or medicinal plants from forests, their decisions over where and how much to extract are influenced by market conditions, their particular opportunity costs of time, minimum consumption needs, and access to markets. This paper develops an optimization model of villagers’ extraction behavior that clarifies how, and under what conditions, policies that create incentives such as improved returns to extraction in a buffer zone might be used instead of adversarial enforcement efforts to protect a forest’s pristine ‘‘inner core.’’

An improved sum-product estimate for general finite fields

An improved sum-product estimate for subsets of a finite field whose order is not prime is provided. It is shown, under certain conditions, that max{∣∣∣A+A∣∣∣,∣∣∣A⋅A∣∣∣}≫∣∣A∣∣12/11(log2∣∣A∣∣)5/11. This new estimate matches, up to a logarithmic factor, the current best known bound obtained over prime fields by Rudnev

An experimental validation of hypothetical WTP for a recyclable product

Using a within-subject experiment, we compare hypothetical and real willingness to pay (WTP) for an improvement in the recyclability of a product. Subjects are faced with a real payment scenario after they have responded to a hypothetical question. Contrary to most of the results obtained in similar studies, at apopulation level, there are no significant median differences between actual and hypothetical stated values of WTP. However,within-subject comparisons between hypothetical and actual values indicate that subjects stating a low (high) hypothetical WTP tend to underestimate (overestimate) the value of their actual contributions.

Adaptive behavior by single-product and multiproduct price setting firms in experimental markets

We focus on the learning dynamics in multiproduct price-setting markets, where firms use past strategies and performance to adapt to the corresponding equilibrium.

Monopolistic product line competition with ex post consumer heterogeneity

We model monopolistic competition in product lines, assuming that consumer heterogeneity is the result rather than the cause of product variety. Our results contradict some well-known policy implications yielded by the standard monopolistic competition framework.

Regional and monthly and clear-sky aerosol direct radiative effect (and forcing) derived from the GlobAEROSOL-AATSR satellite aerosol product

Using the GlobAEROSOL-AATSR dataset, estimates of the instantaneous, clear-sky, direct aerosol radiative effect and radiative forcing have been produced for the year 2006. Aerosol Robotic Network sun-photometer measurements have been used to characterise the random and systematic error in the GlobAEROSOL product for 22 regions covering the globe. Representative aerosol properties for each region were derived from the results of a wide range of literature sources and, along with the de-biased GlobAEROSOL AODs, were used to drive an offline version of the Met Office unified model radiation scheme. In addition to the mean AOD, best-estimate run of the radiation scheme, a range of additional calculations were done to propagate uncertainty estimates in the AOD, optical properties, surface albedo and errors due to the temporal and spatial averaging of the AOD fields. This analysis produced monthly, regional estimates of the clear-sky aerosol radiative effect and its uncertainty, which were combined to produce annual, global mean values of (−6.7±3.9)Wm−2 at the top of atmosphere (TOA) and (−12±6)Wm−2 at the surface. These results were then used to give estimates of regional, clear-sky aerosol direct radiative forcing, using modelled pre-industrial AOD fields for the year 1750 calculated for the AEROCOM PRE experiment. However, as it was not possible to quantify the uncertainty in the pre-industrial aerosol loading, these figures can only be taken as indicative and their uncertainties as lower bounds on the likely errors. Although the uncertainty on aerosol radiative effect presented here is considerably larger than most previous estimates, the explicit inclusion of the major sources of error in the calculations suggest that they are closer to the true constraint on this figure from similar methodologies, and point to the need for more, improved estimates of both global aerosol loading and aerosol optical properties.

The effect of nutrient fortification of sauces on product stability, sensory properties and subsequent liking by older adults

There are potential nutritional and sensory benefits of adding sauces to hospital meals. The aim of this study was to develop nutrient fortified sauces with acceptable sensory properties suitable for older people at risk of under-nutrition. Tomato, gravy and white sauce were fortified with macro and micro-nutrients using food ingredients rich in energy and protein as well as vitamin and mineral premixes. Sensory profile was assessed by a trained panel. Hedonic liking of fortified compared with standard sauces was evaluated by healthy older volunteers. The fortified sauces had higher nutritional value than the conventional ones, for example the energy content of the fortified tomato, white sauce and gravy formulations were increased between 2.5 and 4 fold compared to their control formulations. Healthy older consumers preferred the fortified tomato sauce compared with unfortified. There were no significant differences in liking between the fortified and standard option for gravy. There were limitations in the extent of fortification with protein, potassium and magnesium, as excessive inclusion resulted in bitterness, undesired flavours or textural issues. This was particularly marked in the white sauce to the extent that their sensory characteristics were not sufficiently optimised for hedonic testing. It is proposed that the development of fortified sauces is a simple approach to improving energy intake for hospitalised older people, both through the nutrient composition of the sauce itself and due to the benefits of increasing sensorial taste and lubrication in the mouth.

Collusion in a Bertrand duopoly model with decreasing returns and product differentiation

We study cartel stability in a differentiated price-setting duopoly with returns to scale. We show that a cartel may be equally stable in the presence of lower differentiation, provided that the decreasing returns parameter is high. In addition we demonstrate that for a given factor of discount, there are technologies that can have decreasing returns to scale where the cartel always is stable independent of the differentiation degree.

Exploring the association of diary product intake with the fatty acids C15:0 and C17:0 measured from dried blood spots in a multi-population cohort: findings from the Food4Me study

Scope: The use of biomarkers in the objective assessment of dietary intake is a high priority in nutrition research. The aim of this study was to examine pentadecanoic acid (C15:0) and heptadecanoic acid (C17:0) as biomarkers of dairy foods intake. Methods and results: The data used in the present study were obtained as part of the Food4me Study. Estimates of C15:0 and C17:0 from dried blood spots and intakes of dairy from an FFQ were obtained from participants (n=1,180) across 7 countries. Regression analyses were used to explore associations of biomarkers with dairy intake levels and receiver operating characteristic (ROC) analyses were used to evaluate the fatty acids. Significant positive associations were found between C15:0 and total intakes of high-fat dairy products. C15:0 showed good ability to distinguish between low and high consumers of high-fat dairy products. Conclusion: C15:0 can be used as a biomarker of high-fat dairy intake and of specific high-fat dairy products. Both C15:0 and C17:0 performed poorly for total dairy intake highlighting the need for caution when using these in epidemiological studies.