Estimators in capture–recapture studies with two sources

This paper investigates the applications of capture–recapture methods to human populations. Capture–recapture methods are commonly used in estimating the size of wildlife populations but can also be used in epidemiology and social sciences, for estimating prevalence of a particular disease or the size of the homeless population in a certain area. Here we focus on estimating the prevalence of infectious diseases. Several estimators of population size are considered: the Lincoln–Petersen estimator and its modified version, the Chapman estimator, Chao’s lower bound estimator, the Zelterman’s estimator, McKendrick’s moment estimator and the maximum likelihood estimator. In order to evaluate these estimators, they are applied to real, three-source, capture-recapture data. By conditioning on each of the sources of three source data, we have been able to compare the estimators with the true value that they are estimating. The Chapman and Chao estimators were compared in terms of their relative bias. A variance formula derived through conditioning is suggested for Chao’s estimator, and normal 95% confidence intervals are calculated for this and the Chapman estimator. We then compare the coverage of the respective confidence intervals. Furthermore, a simulation study is included to compare Chao’s and Chapman’s estimator. Results indicate that Chao’s estimator is less biased than Chapman’s estimator unless both sources are independent. Chao’s estimator has also the smaller mean squared error. Finally, the implications and limitations of the above methods are discussed, with suggestions for further development.

Pollen ultrastructure in anther cultures of Datura innoxia. III. Incomplete microspore division

During the microspore division in Datura innoxia, the mitotic spindle is oriented in planes both perpendicular (PE) and oblique (OB) to the spore wall against which the nucleus is situated. However, irrespective of polarity, the usual type of hemispherical wall is laid down at cytokinesis and isolates the generative cell from the rest of the pollen grain (type A). In PE spores the vegetative nucleus initially occupies a central position in the pollen grain, whereas in OB spores the vegetative nucleus lies at the periphery of the grain close to the generative cell. In anther cultures initiated just before the microspore division is due to take place, no marked change can be observed in either orientation or symmetry of the mitotic spindle when the spores divide. In some, however, cytokinesis is disrupted and deposition of the hemispherical wall arrested. In the absence of a complete wall, differentiation of the generative cell cannot take place and binucleate pollen grains are formed having 2 vegetative-type nuclei (type B). The 2 nuclei in the B pollens are always situated against the pollen-grain wall, suggesting that the disruption phenomenon is related to the OB spores. The incomplete wall always makes contact with the intine on the intine-side of the spindle. Wall material may be represented merely as short stubs projecting out from the intine into the cytoplasm, in which event the 2 nuclei lie close to each other and are separated by only a narrow zone of cytoplasm. In other grains the wall is partially developed between the nuclei and terminates at varying distances from the tonoplast; in these, the nuclei are separated by a wider zone of cytoplasm. The significance of these binucleate grains in pollen embryogenesis is discussed.

Pollen ultrastructure in anther cultures of Datura innoxia. II. The generative-cell wall.

In young pollen grains of Datura innoxia, a wall of the usual hemispherical type separates the 2 gametophytic cells initially and, in the electron microscope, appears as an electron-translucent matrix which is contiguous with the intine. Before detachment of the generative cell from the intine, the matrix decreases in thickness and in places is dispersed altogether leaving the plasmalemmae on either side of it in close apposition. A particularly prominent zone, triangular in profile, is left where the wall joins with the intine. After detachment of the cell, remnants of the matrix can be seen distributed irregularly around the cell and it is supposed that these are partly derived from material in the triangular zone as the cell is drawn away from the intine. The wall residues persist throughout the maturation phase of the pollen and are considered to be either callose resulting from incomplete digestion of the initial wall, or some other polysaccharide material which is unevenly laid down along the wall and concentrated at the junction with the intine. In pollen induced into embryogenesis by anther culture, wall material is also distributed irregularly around the detached cell in a series of discrete zones, but these are more extensive than in vivo, closer together and in many instances highly dilated. The wall profiles thus have a beaded appearance, the 'beads' being connected together by short links of the 2 apposed plasmalemmae. The contents of the swollen zones have a similar electron density to that of the matrix in vivo but also show traces of a fibrillar component. It is postulated that this unusual swelling is a prelude to dispersal of the wall by disruption of the plasmalemmal links and to the establishment of cytoplasmic continuity between the 2 cells. The significance of such binucleate pollen grains in the formation of non-haploid embryos is discussed.

Pollen ultrastructure in anther cultures of Datura innoxia. I. Division of the presumptive vegetative cell.

Ultrastructural features of embryogenic pollen in Datura innoxia are described, just prior to, during, and after completion of the first division of the presumptive vegetative cell. In anther cultures initiated towards the end of the microspore phase and incubated at 28 degrees C in darkness, the spores divide within 24 h and show features consistent with those of dividing spores in vivo. Cytokinesis is also normal in most of the spores and the gametophytic cell-plate curves round the presumptive generative nucleus in the usual highly ordered way. Further differentiation of the 2 gametophytic cells does not take place and the pollen either switches to embryogenesis or degenerates. After 48-72 h, the remaining viable pollen shows the vegetative cell in division. The cell, which has a large vacuole and thin layer of parietal cytoplasm carried over from the microspore, divides consistently in a plane parallel to the microspore division. The dividing wall follows a less-ordered course than the gametophytic wall and usually traverses the vacuole, small portions of which are incorporated into the daughter cell adjacent to the generative cell. The only structural changes in the vegetative cell associated with the change in programme appear to be an increase in electron density of both plastids and mitochondria and deposition of an electron-dense material (possibly lipid) on the tonoplast. The generative cell is attached to the intine when the vegetative cell divides. Ribosomal density increases in the generative cell and exceeds that in the vegetative cell. A thin electron-dense layer also appears in the generative-cell wall. It is concluded that embryogenesis commences as soon as the 2 gametophytic cells are laid down. Gene activity associated with postmitotic synthesis of RNA and protein in the vegetative cell is switched off. The data are discussed in relation to the first division of the embryogenic vegetative cells in Nicotiana tabacum.

An application of the DEA double bootstrap to examine sources of efficiency in Bangladesh rice farming

In this article we examine sources of technical efficiency for rice farming in Bangladesh. The motivation for the analysis is the need to close the rice yield gap to enable food security. We employ the DEA double bootstrap of Simar and Wilson (2007) to estimate and explain technical efficiency. This technique overcomes severe limitations inherent in using the two-stage DEA approach commonly employed in the efficiency literature. From a policy perspective our results show that potential efficiency gains to reduce the yield gap are greater than previously found. Statistically positive influences on technical efficiency are education, extension and credit, with age being a negative influence.

In vitro evaluation of fibrolytic enzymes as additives for maize (Zea mays L.) silage - III. Comparison of enzymes derived from psychrophilic, mesophilic or thermophilic sources

A completely randomised study was completed to examine the influence of fibrolytic enzymes derived from psychrophilic, (F), mesophilic, (L) or thermophilic (Ta) sources, applied at ensiling, on the chemical characteristics and in vitro rumen fermentation of maize silage, assessed using the Reading Pressure Technique (RPT). Treatments, all in triplicate, consisted of untreated maize forage or treated with preparations F, L, Ta or a mixture (1: 1, v/v) of F and L (FL), at two levels each, and ensiled for 210 days in plastic mini-silos. Addition of enzymes L decreased (P < 0.05) silage pH relative to the control, whereas enzyme Ta tended (P < 0.10) to reduce it. Preparations F, L and Ta tended to reduce (P < 0.10) the fibre contents of the silages, with effects being attributable to a decrease in the cellulose fraction. Starch contents were reduced (P < 0.05) in the treatments including enzyme F. End-point (96 h) gas production (GP) values did not differ among treatments, suggesting that enzymes did not change the total amount of fermentable substrate. However, consistent with the decrease in starch contents, adding enzyme F reduced (P < 0.05) GP at most incubation times. Addition of enzymes increased (P < 0.05) the initial (6 h) organic matter degradation (OMD) levels in all but one treatment (F), with increases of 14, 19, and 26% for preparations L, Ta, and FL, respectively, averaged across levels. Furthermore, the addition of enzymes increased (P < 0.05) the soluble OM losses, however, these increases did not fully account for the initial increase in OMD. The latter suggests that enzymes increased solubility and also altered silage structure, making it more amenable to degradation by ruminal microorganisms. As a result of the increase in OMD, without a concomitant increase in GP, the fermentation efficiency was greatly increased (P < 0.05) in enzyme treatments. Addition of enzymes to maize at ensiling, particularly those from the mesophilic and thermophilic sources used here, have the potential to increase the initial rate of silage OMD. (C) 2003 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Recovery of nitrogen from different sources following applications to winter wheat at and after anthesis

The effects of applying nitrogen (30 or 40 kg N/ha) to wheat crops at and after anthesis, after 200 kg N/ha had already been applied to the soil during stem extension, were studied in field experiments comprising complete factorial combinations of different cultivars, fungicide applications and nitrogen treatments. Actual recoveries of late-season fertilizer nitrogen (LSFN), as indicated by N-15 studies, interacted with cultivar and fungicide treatment, and depended on nitrogen source (Urea applied as a solution to the foliage, or as ammonium nitrate applied to the soil) and year. These interactions, however, were not reflected in apparent fertilizer recoveries ((N in grain with LSFN - N in grain without LSFN)/N applied as LSFN), or in the crude protein concentration. Apparent fertilizer recovery was always lower than actual recoveries, and declined during grain filling. Fertilizer treatments with higher actual fertilizer recoveries were associated with lower net renlobilisation of non-LSFN (net remobilised N = N in above ground crop at anthesis - N in non-grain, above ground crop at harvest). LSFN also increased mineral nitrogen in the soil at harvest even when applied as a solution to the foliage. These effects are discussed in relation to potential grain N demand. (c) 2006 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Pea-barley intercrops use nitrogen sources 20-30% more efficiently than the sole crops

Field pea (Pisum sativum L.) and spring barley (Hordeum vulgare L) were intercropped and sole cropped to compare the effects of crop diversity on the use of nitrogen sources in European organic crop-ping systems. Across a wide range of growing condi-tions pea-barley intercropping showed that nitrogen sources were used from 17 to 31% more efficiently by the intercrop than by the sole crops. Intercropping technologies offers the opportunity for organic cropping systems to utilize N complementarity between component crops, without compromising total crop N yield levels

The effects of non-host plant essential oil volatiles on the behaviour of the pollen beetle Meligethes aeneus

The use of semiochemicals for manipulation of the pollen beetle Meligethes aeneus (Fabricius) (Coleoptera: Nitidulidae) is being investigated for potential incorporation into a push-pull control strategy for this pest, which damages oilseed rape, Brassica napus L. (Brassicaceae), throughout Europe. The response of M. aeneus to non-host plant volatiles was investigated in laboratory assays to establish whether they have any effect on host plant location behaviour. Two approaches were used. First a novel, moving-air bioassay using air funnels was developed to compare the response of M. aeneus to several non-host plant essential oils. The beetles avoided the host plant flowers in the presence of non-host volatiles, suggesting that M. aeneus uses olfactory cues in host location and/or acceptance. The results were expressed as 'repellency values' in order to compare the effects of the different oils tested. Lavender (Lavendula angustifolia Miller) (Lamiaceae) essential oil gave the highest repellency value. In addition, a four-arm olfactometer was used to investigate olfactory responses, as this technique eliminated the influence of host plant visual and contact cues. The attraction to host plant volatiles was reduced by the addition of non-host plant volatiles, but in addition to masking the host plant volatiles, the non-host volatiles were avoided when these were presented alone. This is encouraging for the potential use of non-host plants within a push-pull strategy to reduce the pest colonisation of crops. Further testing in more realistic semi-field and field trials is underway.

Determinants of intention to purchase chicken in Italy: the role of consumer risk perception and trust in different information sources

The article investigates how purchasing intentions among a sample of Italian consumers are influenced by different levels of risk perception and their trust in food-safety information provided by different sources such as the food industry, government agencies, or consumers' associations. The assessment of the determinants of intention to purchase was carried out by estimating a causal model for the chicken case in which attitudes, subjective norms, and perceived risk play a major role in determining buyer's behavior. In particular, the role of trust in influencing risk perception is highlighted either as a general construct or as specific constructs targeting food chain, policy actors, and the media. [EconLit citations: Q130, Q190, D120]. (C) 2008 Wiley Periodicals, Inc.

Estimators in capture-recapture studies with two sources

This paper investigates the applications of capture-recapture methods to human populations. Capture-recapture methods are commonly used in estimating the size of wildlife populations but can also be used in epidemiology and social sciences, for estimating prevalence of a particular disease or the size of the homeless population in a certain area. Here we focus on estimating the prevalence of infectious diseases. Several estimators of population size are considered: the Lincoln-Petersen estimator and its modified version, the Chapman estimator, Chao's lower bound estimator, the Zelterman's estimator, McKendrick's moment estimator and the maximum likelihood estimator. In order to evaluate these estimators, they are applied to real, three-source, capture-recapture data. By conditioning on each of the sources of three source data, we have been able to compare the estimators with the true value that they are estimating. The Chapman and Chao estimators were compared in terms of their relative bias. A variance formula derived through conditioning is suggested for Chao's estimator, and normal 95% confidence intervals are calculated for this and the Chapman estimator. We then compare the coverage of the respective confidence intervals. Furthermore, a simulation study is included to compare Chao's and Chapman's estimator. Results indicate that Chao's estimator is less biased than Chapman's estimator unless both sources are independent. Chao's estimator has also the smaller mean squared error. Finally, the implications and limitations of the above methods are discussed, with suggestions for further development.

Conservation and sustainable use of wild species as sources of new ornamentals

While only about 1-200 species are used intensively in commercial floriculture (e.g. carnations, chrysanthemums, gerbera, narcissus, orchids, tulips, lilies, roses, pansies and violas, saintpaulias, etc.) and 4-500 as house plants, several thousand species of herbs, shrubs and trees are traded commercially by nurseries and garden centres as ornamentals or amenity species. Most of these have been introduced from the wild with little selection or breeding. In Europe alone, 12 000 species are found in cultivation in general garden collections (i.e. excluding specialist collections and botanic gardens). In addition, specialist collections (often very large) of many other species and/or cultivars of groups such as orchids, bromeliads, cacti and succulents, primulas, rhododendrons, conifers and cycads are maintained in several centres such as botanic gardens and specialist nurseries, as are 'national collections' of cultivated species and cultivars in some countries. Specialist growers, both professional and amateur, also maintain collections of plants for cultivation, including, increasingly, native plants. The trade in ornamental and amenity horticulture cannot be fully estimated but runs into many billions of dollars annually and there is considerable potential for further development and the introduction of many new species into the trade. Despite this, most of the collections are ad hoc and no co-ordinated efforts have been made to ensure that adequate germplasm samples of these species are maintained for conservation purposes and few of them are represented at all adequately in seed banks. Few countries have paid much attention to germplasm needs of ornamentals and the Ornamental Plant Germplasm Center in conjunction with the USDA National Plant Germplasm System at The Ohio State University is an exception. Generally there is a serious gap in national and international germplasm strategies, which have tended to focus primarily on food plants and some forage and industrial crops. Adequate arrangements need to be put in place to ensure the long- and medium-term conservation of representative samples of the genetic diversity of ornamental species. The problems of achieving this will be discussed. In addition, a policy for the conservation of old cultivars or 'heritage' varieties of ornamentals needs to be formulated. The considerable potential for introduction of new ornamental species needs to be assessed. Consideration needs to be given to setting up a co-ordinating structure with overall responsibility for the conservation of germplasm of ornamental and amenity plants.