Trajectories of Adolescent Aggression and Family Cohesion: The Potential to Perpetuate or Ameliorate Political Conflict

Correlations between intergroup violence and youth aggression are often reported. Yet longitudinal research is needed to understand the developmental factors underlying this relation, including between-person differences in within-person change in aggression through the adolescent years. Multilevel modeling was used to explore developmental and contextual influences related to risk for youth aggression using 4 waves of a prospective, longitudinal study of adolescent/mother dyad reports (N = 820; 51% female; 10–20 years old) in Belfast, Northern Ireland, a setting of protracted political conflict. Experience with sectarian (i.e., intergroup) antisocial behavior predicted greater youth aggression; however, that effect declined with age, and youth were buffered by a cohesive family environment. The trajectory of aggression (i.e., intercepts and linear slopes) related to more youth engagement in sectarian antisocial behavior; however, being female and having a more cohesive family were associated with lower levels of youth participation in sectarian acts. The findings are discussed in terms of protective and risk factors for adolescent aggression, and more specifically, participation in sectarian antisocial behavior. The article concludes with clinical and intervention implications, which may decrease youth aggression and the perpetuation of intergroup violence in contexts of ongoing conflict.

The Business of Building Peace: Private Sector Cooperation across the Irish Border

The sustainability of cross-border peacebuilding initiatives is increasingly pertinent in a context of reduced public funding (national and European), yet the potential contribution to be made to this from private sector cooperation remains under-explored. This paper brings together quantitative data on cross-border trade with qualitative evidence from business leaders in the Irish border region in order to examine the nature of cross-border cooperation within the private sector and its possible connections to peacebuilding. This evidence is analysed in the light of three theses: spillover, contact and business-based peacebuilding. The first part of this paper assesses the conditions for cross-border business cooperation in Ireland, including funding support for economic development, European integration, and (post-Agreement) institutional change. The second part examines the particular contributions made by the private sector to peace, centring upon consciously non-political motivations (such as pragmatism and profit), networking and leadership.

Transitional justice, demobilization, and peacebuilding amid political violence: Examining individual preferences in the Caribbean coast of Colombia

The conventional wisdom in the transitional justice literature is that there is no one-size-fits-all approach. This article suggests that this may also be true within a given state. The current paper reports on quantitative and qualitative data from 184 participants in a survey conducted in the Caribbean coast of Colombia. Results suggest widespread support for transitional justice mechanisms – such as perpetrator accountability, public acknowledgement and structural change – but dissatisfaction with national-level initiatives, specifically the 2005 Justice and Peace Law. Yet, despite a distrust of the national government and protracted conflict, individuals report social trust, community cohesion and reliance on local government institutions. These attitudes and behaviours suggest that decentralised transitional justice mechanisms may be more effective in meeting victims' needs. Moreover, analyses indicate that individual preferences are influenced by community factors, such as the presence of demobilised paramilitaries, which can be addressed through more localised approaches to promote peacebuilding. The paper concludes with best practices derived from the findings.

The political legacy of World war I and the Easter Rising in Longford

During the Irish War of Independence, between 1919 and 1921, Longford was one of the centres of the Irish Republican Army's guerrilla campaign against British rule in Ireland. The county's emergence as a centre of republican activity appears incongruous in light of its relatively peaceful history up to that point and in view of the fact that, outside of Dublin, its neighbouring Leinster counties were not particularly strongholds of IRA resistance. The explanation for Longford's role during the crucial years of the independence campaign is to be found in the political ransformation that occurred in the county in the crucial period of turmoil encompassing World War I and the Easter Rising.

Estimating policy positions from political texts

The analysis of policy-based party;;competition will not make serious progress beyond the constraints of (a) the unitary actor assumption and (b) a static approach to analyzing party competition between elections until a method is available for deriving; reliable and valid time-series estimates of the policy positions of large numbers of political actors. Retrospective estimation of these positions;In past party systems will require a method for estimating policy positions from political texts.

Previous hand-coding content analysis schemes deal with policy emphasis rather than policy positions. We propose a new hand-coding scheme for policy positions, together with a new English language computer,coding scheme that is compatible with this. We apply both schemes; to party manifestos from Britain and Ireland in 1992 and 1997 and cross validate the resulting estimates with :those derived from quite independent expert surveys and with previous,manifesto analyses.

There is a high degree of cross validation between coding methods. including computer coding. This implies that it is indeed possible to use computer-coded content analysis to derive reliable and valid estimates of policy positions from political texts. This will allow vast Volumes of text to be coded, including texts generated by individuals and other internal party actors, allowing the empirical elaboration of dynamic rather than static models of party competition that move beyond the unitary actor assumption.

The British conservative party and Europe:The choosing of John Major

This article provides an empirical analysis of voting behaviour in the second ballot of the 1990 Conservative leadership contest that resulted in John Major becoming party leader and prime minister. Seven hypotheses of voting behaviour are generated from the extant literature relating voting to socio-economic variables (occupational and educational background), political variables (parliamentary experience, career status, age and electoral marginality) and ideological variables (drawn from survey data on MPs' positions on economic, European and moral issues). These hypotheses are tested using data on voting intentions gathered from published lists of MPs' declarations, interviews with each of the leadership campaign teams, and correspondence with MPs. Bivariate relationships are presented, followed by logistic regression analysis to isolate the unique impact that each variable had on voting. This shows that educational background, parliamentary experience and (especially) attitudes to Europe were the key factors determining voting. The importance of Europe in the contest is particularly instructive: the severe problems for Major's leadership which were caused by the issue can be attributed to, and understood in the context of, the 1990 contest in which he became leader.

Northern Ireland Representation at Westminster: Constitutional Conundrums and Political Manoeuvres

This article focuses on the issue of Northern Ireland's representation at Westminster. It investigates the political context of the decision to increase Northern Ireland's representation in the house of commons at Westminster from 12 members to 17 in 1978-9. Exploring this episode in more detail, it is argued, provides a more informed overall understanding of the history of devolution in the UK and of the way issues concerning Northern Ireland often overlapped with questions of constitutional change in Scotland and Wales. The article also throws light on the matter of Northern Ireland MPs and their voting rights at Westminster during Northern Ireland's experience of devolution prior to 1972.